I’m super swamped at work today and didn’t get the blog post going ahead of time, so I’ll throw out an exercise for you all this afternoon. Put the following 5 pitchers in order where you would rank them in a prospect list. Don’t forget to show your work.
David Kopp
John Gast
Nick Additon
Joe Kelly
Tyler Lyons
Entries (RSS)
Joe Kelly — Looks like prime candidate for closing down the road.
John Gast — Decent lefty. Need them. Anywhere.
Nick Additon — Good control.
David Kopp — Just because.
Tyler Lyons — Too early to tell.
Kelly, Kopp, Gast, Lyons, Additon.
1. Joe Kelly- I still believe he’s a reliever long term, but his stuff and groundball tendencies lead to believe he is the most likely of this group to reach the majors
2. Kopp- the bullpen experiment seems to be going well, which puts him closer to the majors.
3. Gast- he’s had a meh season, but seems to have the best stuff of the three lefties. Plus, he’s a puckish artist. Might make it to the majors as a back end starter, might stall out in AAA.
4. Addition- he continues to baffle. Moderate success in AAA with below average stuff. He must really know how to pitch. Still, I dont see that fastball ever working in the majors as a starter, and his numbers against lefties are overwhelming enough for me to call him a potential LOOGY.
5. Lyons- I really don’t know enough about him to make a judgement, but he’s at the lowest level of all the pitchers, which says to me he is the furthest away.
Supposed to read pickoff…not puckish
Actually, I like puckish better. He has the childish face and capricious pickoff move. Puckish seems oddly apt.
Ugh..for addition, his numbers AREN’T overwhelming enough for me to call him a potential LOOGY
Gast – best lefty split of lefties above A ball. That along with his pickoff move makes him a strong candidate to make it out of the pen. Outside chance to be a starter.
Kelly – hasn’t missed the bats to go with his hype but he is advancing steadily and I assume he would get a bump if moved to the pen.
Kopp – has been very solid out of the pen but his peripherals there are still a little weak despite the velocity bump. hopefully gets better out of the pen with more experience.
Lyons – who knows what we’ve got in him.
Additon – no one who has seen him pitch thinks he has a real chance.
Gast-has made it to AA his first year and even though he has been a little uneven at times in spfld, he has also had some very nice starts there. Also a plus for him being lefthanded, and 2nd CC’s comment about his strong pickoff move. He also has the frame to stick at starter long term as long as his arm holds up the way it has.
Kelly-admit ive never been as high on him as some others, but he is still showing the capability to be a decent reliever, his walks seem a bit too high and his strikeout numbers a bit too low for somebody that has plus velocity and advanced feel for pitching.
Lyons-have no idea what we have here, but he is lefthanded and has the frame to handle starting, though not sure on his stuff longterm.
Kopp-like Kelly, never been quite as high on him as others, but does have nice velocity out of the pen and could still be an ok middle relief option or at the very least depth.
Additon-results have been decent up to AAA, but concerns about him not doing that well at AAA sided with less than impressive scouting reports make me think his best case scenario might be a loogy, but keep in mind if he is a major league anything, thats a great accomplishment since he was picked in the 47th rd.
For Gast, am referring to this being his first full year.
Kelly – closer
Lyons – I will go out on a limb and put him #2…potential starters value even at a lower level is higher than a loogy in AA to me.
Gast- eventual loogy
Kopp – potential mid reliver
Addition – AAAA
@rb- I’m a genius even when I don’t mean to be
ehh…
Kelly- big enough FB to be a late inning reliever, his ceiling is probably a number 3 if he figures some thing out. More likely a 5th starter with who gets shuffled around like Boggs in the future, but that has value.
John Gast- kind of hard to pick Kelly over Gast when considering age, but in overall experience I feel more comfortable with Kelly’s stuff. Gast throwing LH will allow him to make it to the majors in some capacity and I feel he could be a really nice reliever if he adds the usual 2 MPH on his FB. I keep getting a Lance Lynn type vibe from Gast because of his quick ascension through the minors and I feel he’ll be either stuck in AAA starting or used as a reliever in 2013 because of the system depth.
After this I don’t feel comfortable ranking the remaining three because none of them really impress me enough to consider real options in the majors in the future.
3.Lyons- essentially the same age as Additon, but there’s more questions about his ceiling and we basically know Addtion’s being an organizational filler with the sample size we have. Good GB% at 47%, so I feel a bit more confident.
4. Kopp- meh, he allowed too many HRs and walks to be successful, he needs to hope that extra velocity in the pen will help. Keeps the ball on the ground, so hopefully his xFIP luck comes around before it’s too late.
5. Additon- Additon hating, he’ll need to make a move to the pen before I can get a feel for his stuff, needs to allow less HRs which won’t help that he’s a FB pitcher.
forget that part about age, I thought Kelly was a bit older and Gast a bit youngerr.
Kopp, reliever, closest to the majors.
Gast, he’s pitched for UFlorida, knows his stuff. But destined for reliever.
Additon, reliever, whereas Carioca puts stock in opinions from unknown observers, I do not. This guy has done the job at every rung. Who cares if he isn’t conventional? If he could be a ML starter, he would soar to the top of the list. Breaking balls are under-rated among posters at this site.
Kelly, reliever, good velocity, but hitters make contact anyway. Destined for the pen.
Lyons, might have a good enough approach to start, but will need a few more years of seasoning.
The trick to this question is there are not strong grounds to separate these guys.
Interesting the comment about about carioca coming from the person who said tilson is a long shot kozma when he’s played 12 games
I am aware of Carioca’s thought processes. All of them.
In the case of Additon the observers are actually known.
And since I know you have probably seen none of these guys, who ‘s opinions are you putting stock in?
Kelly – I believe in him as a starter. Good FB velocity and movement. I have him as a #4 type SP with the upside of a upper tier #3 which holds solid value.
Gast – Almost ranked him above Kelly but just couldn’t pull the trigger. I think the ceiling is a touch higher but still have some doubts. Definitely see a starter and probably another #4 type but left handed.
Lyons – Intriguing but needs to continue to improve and show success at higher levels. Hard to tell the ceiling or projection IMO but his ceiling beats the 2 below him and I lean on upside more than some.
Kopp – middle reliever at best…not really on my radar
Additon – Just not sure he is ever going to make it in the bigs. See more PJ Walters type (good minor league results that just never has made it in MLB stints) than someone who can even become middle relief (Brad Thompson?)
Good discussion though…
I’ m sure that you all know, first and foremost is developing starters, everything else is secondary.
I think this has been an interesting year, that you can’t keep some pitchers stagnant in milb forever in one role, therefore you have to change roles, to move them up. Lynn is a perfect example. It will be interesting to see how things work out for him, I hear he really enjoys the relief role, as Kopp does too. Additon, have seen him pitch, will be a loogy, maybe not in STL but his role will change too, he’s young yet and can get by as a starter with more time in AAA.
I think where roles of some of these players mentioned will depend on how long it will take them to get to a certain point. It also depends on how their secondary stuff progresses.
This is not to put Additon down, I think he is awesome. I just don’t see him getting to ML as a starter, at first.
I can’t believe he’s gotten as far as he has — so I’ve been wrong about him before — but I just don’t see him retiring big league hitters with any consistency. He may prove me wrong again but I’m betting he never sticks in the majors.
He’s a lefty, different rules apply. He’s young and that works in his favor, some crops on the farm take longer to harvest :) and also someone has to give him a chance to get in the experience needed on the ML field.
My opinion, watching lots of milb on different levels over the years, that we have lots of talent, but it just may not fit the cardinal rule. A lot of these guys (like Dickson as an example) would be in the regular rotation on other teams.
Why would different rules apply to a lefty who doesn’t get lefties out particularly well?
Kelly, Gast, Lyons, Kopp and Addition..for all the reasons from the other posters…
Kelly – great stuff, mixing GB fetching movement w/ great velocity; non-trivial chance he becomes a 2-3 starter; decent chance of closer/setup role.
Gah – 2 through 5:
No. 2 – gast: decent repertoire, points for proximity to majors. Looks like a decent back-end starter or left-handed reliever.
No. 3 – lyons: maybe slightly higher ceiling than gast, offset by slightly larger distance from majors. Backend starter or lefty reliever.
No. 4 – kopp: trouble staying healthy, trouble translating potential to results. Ceiling looks like setup guy.
No. 5 – additon: looks like brad thompson on the left side with a teeny bit more oomph. Upside: kyle mcclellan.
Uncalled for mrs. TLR…uncalled for
Kelly- Though I don’t really believe in him.
Gast- These guys all put a lot of guys on base. At least Gast can pick some of them off.
Kopp- Shows what can happen when you change a guy’s role.
Lyons- Need more data.
Additon- Meh
None of these guys rank above 17 on my prospect list but any of them could make the majors.
1) Gast. Doing fine in AA in his first full season, at age-appropriate 22. His K rates are higher with men on base, and his walks (and hits) are lower. And we know about the plus pickoff move. ERA of 3.22 in August, after 3.66 in July—solid numbers for the Texas League. Potential 3/4 starter on a 90-win team.
2) Additon. Still just 23, was excellent in AA (sub-3.00 ERA, with better than 3-1 K/BB rate), and has held up OK in the PCL (ERA 4.56…worse over the 2nd half, but better lately [six shutout innings yesterday]). Additon’s strikeouts are up this year, to a respectable (‘specially for a southpaw) 128 in 158 IP’s. Negatives: too many longballs, and blah velocity. Positive: has stayed healthy & productive for his entire five-year pro career, a true rarity among pitching prospects. Potential 4/5 starter.
3) Kelly. Too hittable, all the way back to college days. With a move to the pen, could be Motte Lite perhaps. Potential set-up guy.
4) Lyons. Old for the FSL at 23, but I like the 50/17 K/BB ratio since moving to the Palm Beach rotation. Numbers are merely OK against both lefties and normals, but at least he doesn’t seem predestined for LOOGY status. Potential back of rotation guy, but even more of a longshot than numbers 1 and 2 above.
5) Kopp. Never understood the draft pick in the first place, honestly. Didn’t strike people out or post good ERA’s at Clemson…and hasn’t done so as a pro, either. I just can’t get intrigued by a 25-year-old with eight OK innings out of the AAA bullpen. Maybe he’ll fool me, but I see a middle relief upside, at best.
Kind of a ‘much to do about nothing’ conversation. No offence! However, I still wish to put my two cents worth in and I guarantee that’s about all it’s worth. I don’t think any of them will be anything more then relievers, not to mention there are sooooo many more pitchers ahead of them on the depth chart.
1. Lyons – He’s either really good or particularly bad. Consistency from start to start could potentially make him the only starter here. At the very least as a Loogy he could get a K or a ground ball.
2. Gast – The pick-off could be his saving grace as he allows way to many base runners.
3. Kelly – I’m not on his bandwagon with so many others, but he does have Mitch Boggs upside. He’s way to slight of build to be an innings eater.
4. Additon – Had pinpoint control early in his career, but a flyball pitcher in St.Louis is as about as welcome as Johnny Cueto.
5. Kopp – Too old and injury prone.