Matt Carpenter: More Important Than Tyler Greene?
Posted on September 2nd, 2011 by azruavatar in Matt Carpenter, tags: David Freese, MattCarpenter, Tyler GreeneThe appeals have already been made here and elsewhere to see Tyler Greene get the lion’s share of playing time this September. Shortstop is an obvious problem and one that needs addressing for the future. Ryan Theriot has proven that whatever defense might have been expected from him entering the season, simply was more than what he actually brought to the table.
To use a quick tautology: Apparent problems are obvious. Do the Cardinals have a less apparent problem that they should be dealing with.
I delve into Joe Strauss’s Post-Dispatch chats with great apprehension and a full bottle of TUMS at my side. One response this week particularly caught my eye.
Joe Strauss: Dickson is starting Thursday. Greene will receive significangt playing time. Freese endures from arthritic ankles so, yes, running is rarely free of discomfort. [...]
Emphasis mine. The Cardinals are employing a third baseman who, in his third year, still has yet to reach 600 major league plate appearances. There are plenty of reasons for this including some freak accidents but, as Struass notes, there are lingering effects to these injuries. David Freese is hitting well, let’s not be unclear about that. He’s posting a .343 wOBA which is significantly better than league average. His defense looks above average to the eyeball and the defensive metrics largely peg him around average.
He can’t run without pain though? At 28, Freese is no spring chicken in baseball terms and he’s entering his arbitration years where his price goes out and expected production needs to increase. The wrap on players like Skip Schumaker isn’t that their bad players, it’s that playing $2-4M dollars for a 1-2WAR player is questionable when there’s a player in the minors that has potential. In Schumaker’s case, you had Daniel Descalso, who provided a less clear line of advocacy than Matt Carpenter does with David Freese.
One of the arguments against Matt Carpenter is that he isn’t expected to hit for power. He saw the traditional left-hander in Texas League bump that added 50pts of ISO to his line from A-ball. Earlier in the year, coaches worked with Carpenter to add a little more loft to his swing. He’s nearly maintained his ISO since moving to Memphis. Even with some HR friendly parks out west, that wasn’t something that Colby Rasmus or Daniel Descalso did – other recent lefthanders who experienced the Springfield bump.
Perhaps the more apt rebuttal to this line of thinking is Matt Carpenter in the big leagues would be replacing a player who also hasn’t hit for power. David Freese has an ISO that hovers around his career average of .121; this year’s ISO would place him 105th in the majors among qualified hitters.
The advantage that Matt Carpenter has, and has long exhibited, is his exceptional plate discipline. Power is an easy number to inflate with park effects and varying park dimensions. Plate discipline and walk rate, while not immune (different batter’s eyes, environmental effects dampening breaking pitches, etc), is a more stable skillset. Carpenter has a minor league career OBP over .400. He has a mere 4 more strikeouts than walks (207 to 203). In 2011, he’s taken that to a new level with 82 walks against 66 strikeouts and a .420 OBP.
One of the recent arguments that John Mozeliak had when trading Colby Rasmus was concern that his value would erode further for various reasons. Given David Freese’s age, medical history and declining number of cost controlled years, shouldn’t we have the same questions about Freese? Has he reached the peak of his value?
Tyler Greene will get playing time in September because shortstop has been a disaster position all year long for the club. It’s obvious. The Cardinals face a lot of upcoming budget constraints and key, iconic players who will need to have their contracts negotiated in the near term. The loss of Colby Rasmus, even if you think the team is better for that trade, was a tough one to take on the balance sheet. The Cardinals have a chance to establish a young cheap player at 3rd base once again. No, he doesn’t hit for power but I’ll bet he isn’t in pain when he runs either.
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At least they are opposite handed hitters (Freese and Carpenter); maybe they can be platooned next year or during September this year. Freese’s wRC+ is 140 against lefties, and 106 against righties in his career, so he has some platoon split. Carpenter has actually shown a reverse split this year at AAA, but I would want to see his career split numbers before saying a split wouldn’t work.
This may be difficult since the veteran would be getting the smaller share of at bats (since there are fewer lefties than righties), but they could at least have an excuse to give Carpenter some playing time.
If Carpenter can establish that he can hit major league pitching (or … draw major league walks, I guess) then I’d be all for moving Freese, but that’s no guarantee. Might be a bit of a moot point by 2013 with Cox waiting in the wings.
Good comment.
But as I say with everyplayer, minor league success doesn’t translate to major league success.
At the major league level, Freese has posted: .300/.355/.421. I just can’t assume somebody can step in and post that.
I think people loose perspective. When you have a winning/competing team, you want the known quantity. If you are a developing team, you opt for the younger player.
I think we will have to wait and sees what happens with the FAs to determine which direction the cards go in.
If Freese really is running in pain, which I have no reason to doubt, then Carpenter should step in next year and platoon with Freese. He can do the late inning defensive switch and play against RH’ers who seem to give Freese a tough time. Freese has shown some power to the opposite field lately and it’s hard to deny his hitting in risp situations. It’s a nice problem to have.
My inclination would be to see if Carpenter can snap into ML hitting before ever considering a trade of Freese.
As long as this team is in the hunt, however unlikely the outcome, I don’t think Greene will be our everyday SS. I would want to have LaRussa’s head if he were.
We aren’t in a race or a hunt.
Really Andrew. That was worthy of commenting?
Not really, I assumed you knew we weren’t but I didn’t know. You probably meant as long as we aren’t technically eliminated I would agree.
News flash–this team mailed it in two weeks ago. It’s time to let Greene get a long look and see if he has any future with the club in 2012.
I don’t think it makes sense to even talk about trading Freese right now. He’s posting over a .300 batting average and nearly an .800 OPS and has been very consistently good with the bat and fielding the last 3 years. Sure, he’s only going to be playing about 100 games this year but he hasn’t had to sit out as far as I can remember for the ankles. You have to remember as well that he had to sit out nearly two months of the year, which would be something like another 200 or so plate appearances, because of a freak, fluke injury. Getting hit by a pitch that breaks your hand is not your fault.
Reaching the peak value is not really the best reason to trade someone. It only makes sense to trade someone who is performing successfully if you can:
1. think you can replace the player’s production adequately at the position; or
2. you are looking to rebuild, which is not the situation we all hope the Cards are going to be in…ever
I like M Carp but he’s unproven and I don’t think he has much power as Freese. I don’t see M Carp ever being able to fill in at #5 in a game but Freese is pretty versatile, being able to play #2-9. Power is important to a lineup, especially when TLR just forced the Cards to subtract a power bat from the team. If Pujols goes, power is even MORE a premium in the lineup.
So I guess what I’m saying is this: keep Freese right now. The potential risks are far outweighed by his actual real life success and talent. If Freese has another injury filled year or loses some of his bat prowess, then the idea of trading him may make more sense. But right now, I don’t see a complete replacement for a good bat and good D starting 3B on this squad, majors or minors.
I also have to mention it’s not just “power” that is important with Freese’s bat. It’s known RBI production. Freese has 44 RBIs in 266 ABs, which is a very good rate from someone who is not regularly in the #3-5 slots. 44 RBIs in 77 games. True, you never know how that would be in 150+ games but I think his .364 BA, .881 OPS w/RISP this year shows his RBI ability.
Wait? Are we using RBI rates to defend a player’s ability now? I’m a little disturbed by that.
Everything you said is true, but without proper context towards those numbers it means a lot less to me.
“He’s posting over a .300 batting average and nearly an .800 OPS and has been very consistently good with the bat and fielding the last 3 years.”
Freese strikes out in 20% of his PA which isn’t very impressive when you consider he has to keep up a BABIP of .365 which is just impossible for many. His OPS is .776 in the majors and it’s certainly going to regress if he doesn’t show more power, but with such a small walk rate ( 6.7%), he won’t post a very high OBP without hitting more home runs either.
I’m not going to argue with about his defense, but I feel I shouldn’t have to have hope in a injury riddled third baseman who’s going to get hurt probably diving for a ball at some point in the season.
Your saying its going to regress but over the course of his career he has had a good BA with a similar BABIP and OPS even with his lack of Home Runs.
Are you talking about MLB or MILB numbers?
RBIs = least convincing argument this side of pitcher’s wins
Agree, except when its for a career or over a period of time.
But doesn’t it say something when someone’s BA with RISP is better than average. RBI’s mean something if you can trace that back to someone who is a more successful hitter with RISP.
Lot’s of research to show that almost no hitter is better with RISP over time. It eventually evens out.
Your saying that a guy with more RBI’s and a better RISP average wouldn’t be conisdered a better run producer than a man with less RBI’s and a average to below average RISP BA?
No, I am saying when you take in to account normal batting average, RBI opportunities and, player’s ability to drive in runs, there is little to no evidence that any players are better with RISP than they are without RISP over a large number of AB’s.
I wasn’t arguing they were. Just that you can tell look at multipe things such as RBI’s and average with RISP to get a pretty good idea about how good of a run producer a player is. I believe Freese is a run producer when he plays and will most likely improve on that in the future if he stays healthy.
“Run Producer” is quite possibly the most meaningless term thrown around by broadcasters and fans outside of “Winner”. Maybe ‘Spark Plug”, too.
don’t forget “gritty”.
You don’t believe some players are better than others at driving in runs? It may be outdated but I do believe that some players have a knack of driving in runs.
Ok Andrew, Make up my mind for me. First you say you aren’t arguing that certain players are better RBI producers than the their averages would suggest and now you are claiming you believe those players exist.
I believe the argument was that there was no proof some players are “clutch”. I said I’m not saying they are clutch just that its fair to say RBI’s are a useful stat if combined with other things like average with runners in scoring position. This makes RBI’s less of a team stat as if a player has a good RBI total and hits better than normal with RISP then the RBI total can be attributed to his own peformance. I’m pretty much saying that RBI’s isnt a junk stat if you look at other stats involved.
Pretty sure Freese is not arb eligible till after 2012. Per Cot’s he had 1 year and 28 days service time coming in to 2011; this should leave him well short of super 2 status. Unless there is a substantial return to be grabbed I see no reason for the team to move Freese until after spring training next year, and ONLY if we’re comfortable handing the reigns to Carpenter. I also see no reason for the Cards to give playing time to Carpenter until we are out of the playoff hunt.
You’re right on the playing time. I had thought that in 2009 he spent a bunch of time on the MLB DL but that wasn’t really the case.
I can’t fathom that we’re still considered in the “playoff hunt” when we’re 7 games back of a good Brewers team but whatever.
The Cardinals have 3 third baseman that are starting to crowd each other. They’re going to have to move someone shortly. I’d upgrade another part of the club by moving Freese in a heart beat.
Whether they’re in it or not, I wouldn’t expect them to call it quits until after the series against Milwaukee.
I thought about wording it “in” the playoff hunt, but figured we all know where we’re at. I completely agree with 645s point below…let’s play like we’re in it, and see where we are at this time next week.
I’m hesitant to move Freese until after next Spring, but would certainly move him if the right offer came along.
we are out of the playoff hunt
it’s just not official yet.
I would never give up Freese as well. If people state he’s in pain the guy is truly playing with his heart and soul then. He is when healthy definitely a team player and hits well. I like Matt and would love to see him play one day. Maybe they should put him in 2nd base. At the end of the day we want to win a championship. I also would sign Berkman again, the man can hit and has definitely help the team this year. Don’t care about his age. When you can hit and produce like he has age should make no difference.
If Freese’s ISO for this year would rank him 105th in MLB this year, doesn’t that mean that there are only 3 and a half hitters on each of 30 teams (105 divided by 30) having a better ISO? That doesn’t seem too bad to me.
If I read it correctly, and Azru please correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe that’s 105 out of QUALIFIED hitters, meaning among players with enough PAs or ABs to qualify for the batting title and such. There are currently 150 players qualified, though Freese doesn’t actually have that many PAs so he’d be 105 out of 151. So, he’s basically just in the bottom third. Not great, but hardly awful.
Everyone bemoans Carpenter’s lack of power but despite his reputation Fresse hasn’t put up any power wither yet we complain little about his lack of power. I do think Carpenter could put up similar numbers to Freese with equal defense. Trading Freese though might not be easy if other teams see him the same way many here do (a guy who is injury prone and could soon be over priced.
He played the whole season without re-injuring his ankles. It isn’t like he gets a lot of hangnails. The kid’s hand was broken by an errant pitch.
A team looking for a solid 3rd baseman for a couple years until a red hot prospect comes up should be willing to pop for him. Heck, I’d be happy if he is our 3rd sacker for the next 4-5 years.
I see no evidence of the ankle injury when he’s on the field. Maybe Strauss shouldn’t be talking about his “medical condition”.
His playing time also was protected, so he wouldn’t reinjure them. He’s a solid third-baseman when healthy, but given the condition of his ankles–which is a permanent situation due to the injuries to them–his shelf-life is short and his durability will always be an issue. For the team in St. Louis, it is extremely important to see what the team has in Matt Carpenter, because it would be foolish to depend on Freese (and I’ve been one of his supporters).
It only made sense for Tony to protect his time the year after the surgery. But, I don’t know if the attached ligament is more likely to be injured. Anything is possible, but Freese has proven that he can play 3rd and hit in the majors. It would indeed be painful if we traded him only to find that he not only can play, but gets better over the next 4-6 years.
I will be surprised if Tyler Greene gets any starts at all down the stretch. Tony would rather use Shane Robinson as a righthanded bat off the bench. And MCarp is stuck behind Descalso as the left-handed hitting backup 3B. Descalso can’t play his normal position because Skip is entrenched at 2B. Any time you think a prospect would fit perfectly in the lineup, Tony thinks of some way to block him.
Two thoughts:
First if you bat matt carpenter behind pujols/holliday/berkman, mlb is going to have to start tracking a new stat: RBBI. Matt carpenter has so much plate discipline, he draws two-base walks on four pitches.
Second, if you look at his ZIPS projection, it’s virtually identical by wOBA to freese’s production – I’ve seen it at .342 and .338 this month. So the major difference between the two in value is defense. Which I would guess is maybe 1 win a year. Can we get someone in exchange for freese who’s at least a 1 win improvement on our current roster? I’d guess so.
I’m a pretty strong believer in Matt Carpenter’s defense but even if I wasn’t, I seriously doubt that David Freese would be a whole win better than MCarp in that respect. The metrics place Freese as average and I’d say Carp can also reasonably be expected to be average that third. Neither of them have huge range but both have good instincts with the glove and a good feel for classic hot corner plays (hot shots to the left, barehanded tricklers down the line etc.)
i had always thought of freese as a plus fielder, though UZR doesn’t agree (only through 1100 or so innings, though). i should have said “at best, one win” – that would have been more accurate. i was trying to estimate the difference being generous to freese, and just didn’t explain it well.
Whatever we think about Freese’s value or his ankles Matt Carpenter has to be the priority to get playing time this month. We have a modest treasure trove of young talent at 3b that needs to be sorted out and 20 some games of playing time for Carp could help do that.
I like Freese a lot but I think Carp could be the left hitting version of him. He’s pretty good defensively, has a little power and hits for a decent average. If he was used correctly, which means sticking him in the second spot in the lineup ahead of a trio of 3-4-5- sluggers, he’d chalk up 100 runs scored per year.
The other factor in all of this is Zach Cox. He needs to play at Memphis next year and we still don’t know what we have in him. If he can ratchet up his defense to match Carp and Freese then he’s probably the long term solution. If not and if Freese gets hurt again, then Carp could handle the job. The problem with all of this is that they all really only play 3b. Carp and Freese can’t play together with the varsity and Carp and Cox can’t play together at Memphis.
The trick is to get the most out of this logjam. If the club thinks it knows which way they want to go then they may have two pretty valuable trade commodities. Sorting all of this out, though, starts with bringing MCarp up and letting him play for the rest of the month. Depending on how he does it could help the club make a decision and also spark some interest from other teams.
It’s hard to figure out which player is the future if Freese isn’t. Sure Cox is 3.5 years younger but Carp is a year further along and he is only 25. Carp’s OPS is significantly better than Cox’s and some of that is because of his OBP which is absolutely stellar….something awfully hard to teach.
I think Carp’s defense will never be matched by Cox nor will his batting eye. Just an opinion.
God! How pathetic is our situation that we’re bemoaning the fact that a 28 year-old be given playing time to see if he’s ready to take over the full time role at short. Tyler Greene has failed already how many times??? He should have had at least 3 all-star seasons in by now. Move along people.
As for Matt Carpenter, I don’t see him as any more then a good bench player because of his lack of power, albeit a great obp. He has great plate discipline for sure, so limited platooning next year with Freese would be ideal to up his trade value. I’m not sold on Cox yet either as a 3b judging by his errors and low slugging percentage. He could be battling Wong for 2b.