Minor League Pitching Leaders
Posted on September 7th, 2011 by Jeff in Memphis Redbirds, Palm Beach Cardinals, Quad Cities River Bandits, Springfield CardinalsWith the minor league season coming to an end for most teams. Let’s take a look at the pitching leaders for each team by tRA. (with at least 12 innings pitched) Numbers courtesy of statcorner.
Memphis Starters:
Lance Lynn: tRA – 4.13
Mitch Boggs: tRA – 4.63
Brandon Dickson: tRA – 4.91
Memphis Relievers: (stats compiled only as a reliever)
Raul Valdes: tRA – 2.04
Chuckie Fick: tRA – 4.30
Rich Rundles: tRA – 4.51
Springfield Starters:
Shelby Miller: tRA – 3.38
Maikel Cleto: tRA – 3.75
Nick Additon: tRA – 4.11
Springfield Relievers: (stats compiled only as a reliever)
Kevin Thomas: tRA – 4.18 (but he had a tRA of 5.80 in starts…. so I’m fudging a bit here.)
Sam Freeman: tRA – 4.52
Nick Greenwood: tRA – 4.78
Palm Beach Starters:
Shelby Miller: tRA – 2.02
Maikel Cleto: tRA – 2.91
Jordan Swagerty: tRA – 3.00 (he’s number 1 in relievers as well with a 1.34 tRA)
Palm Beach Relievers:
Chase Reid: tRA – 2.63
Keith Butler: tRA – 3.07
Jesse Simpson: tRA – 3.34
Quad Cities Pitchers: (since starters are relievers are more mixed here I’ve thrown them into the same pot)
Justin Wright: tRA – 1.85
Boone Whiting: tRA – 2.95
Jordan Swagerty: tRA – 2.23
Carlos Martinez: tRA – 2.40
Dean Kiekhefer: tRA – 2.93
Kevin Siegrist: tRA – 3.30
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I went out to stat corner to check on some of this. Of interest, to qualify for a “league leader” in tRA a starting pitcher had to pitch at least 100 innings. Rosenthal has 120.1 IP and ranks 7th in the MWL. Whiting having started out as a reliever, didn’t make the IP cut. None of this means much other than it is tough to rank pitchers when their load is different and there is movement between leagues. Martinez pitched great to start with at QC, but at (pitcher friendly) PB, with his innings piling up, he had a more difficult time. I’m not sure any of our SP’s had a lower ERA, tRA, etc. in the second half of the year than they did in the first half – but that is just a shoot from the hip gut instinct call.
early top ten
1 Miller A+
2 Martinez A-
3 Cox A-
4 Taveras A-
5 Jenkins B+
6 Adams B+
7 Swagerty B
8 Wong B
9 Jackson C+
10 Valera ?
Rosenthal is probably somewhere 8-10 (B, B-). i still think Jenkins is overrated at this point, but I understand the upside possibilities (probably rank him at 10). Organization was very pleased with Rosenthal’s season – 120 innings was sizeable increase over previous year and he didn’t lose velocity. He has about a 40-50% success rate on secondary pitches – that has to increase to stay a starter. Small sample on Wong, but indications are positive. Can’t argue with Swags success – he needs to start all year next year to stay top 10 though.
As a sidenote, Miller is the clear #1, but I’m not sold on the A+. Given the secondary pitch development issue, I’m not as comfortable as I once was. By the way, check out Miller’s stats at QC last year and compare with Rosenthal’s this year – Miller’s are better, but not hugely so……and if he wasn’t trying to develop his secondary pitches last year like Rosenthal was this year, I think you can see what I’m getting at…
I rank Taveras solidly ahead of Cox. Cox just does have anywhere near the upside Taveras has, despite the higher floor.
1. Miller A
2. Taveras A-
3. Martinez A-
4. Adams B+
5. Cox B+
6. Swagerty B+
7. Cleto B
8. Wong B
9. Rosenthal B-
10. Jackson B-
Dan that seems like a fair Top 10, only real disagreement is with Taveras below Cox. Also could put Carpenter, Cleto or Pham at 10.
Haters. Rosie is top 5
I like the optimism! I do think Rosie has a higher ceiling than most probably think. I do think Bob nailed the issue of pitching from the stretch. I think that coincides with an issue I brought up a while back concerning frustration/focus when maybe the D wasn’t playing solidly behind him. I felt I saw progress on that issue (if it was really an issue). I think when one realizes this was really Rosie’s first year as a starting pitcher (I don’t count piggy-backing at JC as “starting”), it mitigates his downside and provides optimism to the upside. Next year will be his key year – probably starts at PB and finishes in Springfield. After next season he will either be added to the 40-man roster or be exposed to Rule 5. With that arm, I won’t surprised if some MLB team snags him and parks him in their bullpen for a year.
I’ll play.
1. Taveras A+ Best MWL batting average in more than a half century, and he did it with power & solid strikezone command. As an 18-year-old for the first two months of the season.
2. Miller A The FB/CB combo alone could make him a sturdy #2 starter. Sharpen the changeup, and he’s an ace. Just 4 HR’s in 140 innings this year.
3. Wong A Seamless transition to pro ball; will hit .300+, with above average power and steals relative to other MLB keystoners. Would’ve been a top 10 draft pick if he were two inches taller. Cards hit the jackpot at #22.
4. Martinez A- Struggles at high-A give pause, but the dominance at QC as a high-octane teen bodes very well.
5. Jenkins B+ Lotsa strikeouts and groundballs, few walks, and quite positive scouting reports. KLaw and Sickels both have high opinions.
6. Adams B Bat.
7. Anthony Garcia B Built on last year’s excellent GCL season with a line of .309/.409/.530 in the Appy League. Will be ignored on BA’s Appy League list, as he does everything well (but nothing *spectacularly* so), and was not a high draft pick. He’ll hit and hit and hit, though. Potential 4-5 WAR corner outfielder.
8. Swagerty B Flew through 3 levels without a hitch, reaching AA in his age 21 season. Overall, nearly 4-1 whiff-to-walk ratio, with good GB/FB components. Has the repertoire to start…but can he stay healthy/durable?
9. Cox B Dunno about the glove (or the baserunning, for that matter), but he looks like a guy who can make dramatic adjustments at the dish—and maybe even post a .180-.200 ISO by his late 20′s, to go along with that .290-.310 average.
10. Rosenthal B- Strikeout/groundball pitcher with 92-96 fastball, from what I understand. If he can fix his problems pitching from the stretch (allowed a batting average 101 points higher with men on base), he’s a plausible 2/3 starter on a 90-win team.
Honorable Mention: Carpenter, Valera, Jackson, Pham, Cleto, Siegrist, Luis Perez, and John Gast. Deep, deep system right now. The top 6 are possible top 50 overall prospects for me, with another 2 or 3 in the next 50.
Tidbit: Rosenthal touched 99 a handful of outings; averaged 95 over 90% of his outings; and hit 98 multiple outings including his last in his 120 inning of the year.
Pretty sure those were “stadium guns”; however, in comparison, when Martinez was in QC, I was told he regiestered 99 several times and hit 100 a few – point being that Rosenthal is only 1-2 mph behind what most consider the hottest arm in the Organization. Rosenthal actually dialed it back some in the middle of the season trying to find the right velocity to get him deep into games. So, there was a lot of learning and experimentation going on with him – how hard to throw the “new” curve, etc. It all adds up as to why it is hard to interpret minor league stats……
wow, no love for Sanchez or Lynn (both prospects by BA standards) or Carpenter.
I consider Sanchez and Lynn both Major Leaguers already so I don’t add them to prospect lists personally.
good for you, but BA is the std (like it or not).
I like Sanchez plenty…but this year shows just how breakable relievers are, huh? And Lynn is shaping up as a middle reliever himself (albeit a damn fine one).
Carpenter is the real deal, but will he get a chance? I’d have him at B- right below Rosenthal.
Is Lynn “shaping up as a middle reliever,” or simply playing that role until his time as a starter comes, like Wainwright did? Either way, he was on the ML roster long enough this year to not “officially” count as a rookie next year, therefore he shouldn’t count as a prospect either.
To me the BA standard 50IP or 134 AB’s makes much more sense for prospects than the MLB rookie criteria that takes into account time on the major league roster. To me, it is all about giving a player enough opportunity to make some determination what kind of major leaguer he will be. Until he gets that opportunity he is still a prospect. You can’t make any determination if a guy comes up and sits on the bench or is injured
I agree in principle, for sure—but Sanchez, for instance, doesn’t seem likely to spend any more time in the minors…so I no longer think of him as a part of the farm system.
No right or wrong answer, of course. ;)
That isn’t really the point though, the point is whether 28 innings is enough major league experience to move someone from a possibility or expectation to a known quantity. If a player pitched 28 innings in the month of September he would be a rookie next year and considered a prospect but because he did it earlier in the year he is now a know quantity. I don’t get the logic.
I don’t think Lynn will be spending any time in the Minors either.
Lynn was so good in his role especially with the extra velocity that he can’t sit at as a starter I wouldn’t be suprised if the Cardinals seriously consider him as a closer.
In the cardinals organization nothing is a given. He will have to compete for a role at the ML level just like everyone else.
I don’t think at this point being a closer is even a consideration.
With Sanchez and Lynn…
1. Miller-A
2. Taveras-A
3. Martinez-A
4. Sanchez-A
5. Wong-B+
6. Jenkins-B+
7. Cox-B
8. Adams-B
9. Lynn-B
10.Swagerty-B
Carpenter, Jackson, Cleto and Rosenthal come next. Then it gets even more interesting. But we’re ahead of ourselves here.
With Sanchez and Lynn. . .
1. Miller-A
2. Taveras-A
3. Martinez-A-
4. Sanchez B+
5. Jenkins B
6. Wong-B
7. Lynn-B
8. Cox-B
9. Swagerty-B-
10. Adams-B-
Without I’d go:
1. Miller
2. Taveras
3. Martinez
4. Jenkins
5. Wong
6. Cox
7. Swagerty
8. Adams
9. Carpenter B-
10. Garcia B-
Next tier: Rosenthal, Jackson, Cleto, Whiting, Gast, Kelly, Butler, Wright.
If only 5 or 6 of these guys reach their potential and a couple others become contributors. . . it’s awesome, just awesome, to think about the possibilities for the next few years.
I think the best part of all this is the transition to Double A of Miller, Cox, Swagerty and Jackson. They all handled the jump extremely well and add to it that they reached AA before they were expected to. I guess I should add Adams to that list. And Wong did fantastic as most picks usuaslly start at Rookie levels. Lot to be excited about!
I did not consider Lynn or sanchez ethier. I did think of Cleto and Rosenthal. only room for ten. I wanted to put a wild card player I think can be special Breyvic Valera middle infielder who hit .397 also hit.318 in the playoffs fo JC playing most of the year at 18 yrs old. also Roberto De La Cruz OPS of .841 dispite OPB of .299 at 19yrs old