The River Bandits won game two of the Western Division Championship series on a three run, walk off home run by Nick Longmire. That makes for a sweep of the series and the team will move on to play either Lansing or Fort Wayne in a best of five championship series.
Hitting:
- Kolten Wong went 2-for-4
- Ronny Gil went 0-for-3 w/ 1 BB and 1 R
- Oscar Taveras was held hitless for three at bats
- Jonathan Rodriguez went 1-for-4 w/ 1 R and 1 RBI
- Cody Stanley went 1-for-4 w/ 1 R
- Nick Longmire was the hero of the night, his lone hit in 3 AB’s was a three run homer to win the game, he scored a total of 2 R on the night
- Colin Walsh went 2-for-3 w/ 2 2B, 1 R and 1 RBI
- Geoff Klein and Patrick Elkins went 0-for-3
Pitching:
- Zach Russell got the start and kept his team in the game: 4.1 IP, 2 H, 4 R, 3 BB and 8 K
- Seth Maness recorded 5 of his 11 outs via the strikeout: 3.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB and 5 K
- Angel De Jesus was gifted the win, he pitched a perfect inning and recorded 1 K
Links:
Ashley Marshall’s article on Milb.com
Steve Batterson’s article from the QC Times
Entries (RSS)
Signing Chris Carpenter to the 2 year deal should hopefully be a good thing for Shelby Miller. They say he’s very good with young pitchers, and i remember one article about him talking to Miller about tipping his pitches.
Top 20 list —
Bored at work…sorry :)
Notable grads—Matt Carpenter, Lance Lynn
1) Shelby Miller
2) Carlos Martinez
3) Zack Cox—OPSing 800 since entering the system. Still not sure what he is, but the bat seems equipped
4) Tyrell Jenkins–Everyone likes potential
5) Oscar Tavarez—Ditto
6) Kolten Wong
7) Matt Adams–May be too low, but he did cool off later in the season
8) Jordan Swagerty
9) Trevor Rosenthal—ever so close to Swags, but Swagerty has the advanced secondary stuff that Rosenthal is still missing
10) Ryan Jackson–Your 2013 starting SS
11) Charlie Tilson-Tiny sample size, but he looks the part
12) Boone Whiting—Peripherals are really pretty decent with the results…I believe until proven otherwise
13) Joe Kelly
14) John Gast
15) Keith Butler—Speaking of interesting results…
16) Tommy Pham—Stay on the field please
17) Aaron Luna—I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in STL next year as the 25th man
18) Daryl Jones
19) Adam Reifer—I just can’t get too excited about a relief prospect with a big bad injury
20) Cody Stanley
Good comments…..
Might stick Kyle Hald on that list somewhere. Think he might be a person of interest next year at Quad City!!
Why do you have Matt Carpenter graduating? Did I miss something?
I guess I am presuming Carpenter cracks the bigs next year….maybe this list would fit better post-ST
I would probably slot Carp around 10-12 on the list I made
player I think can be special Breyvic Valera middle infielder who hit .397 also hit.318 in the playoffs fo JC playing most of the year at 18 yrs old.
Forgot about him. Hope he can keep it going as he advances.
He was a UFA, correct? Why is this?
he is from Venezuela they all are UFA
exciting team and exciting finish to the second round for quad cites..longmire has had a disappointing season, no doubt..but that helps a little bit
Always interesting to see a list. Something to look at in the dog days of DFRs.
Not sure I’m getting the Luna love, the only plus I see for him is OBP and Daryl Jones can’t still be on this list can he? No Matt Carpenter? He has to be ahead of DJ doesn’t he? And although Jenkins is interesting I don’t think he is ready for the top ten yet.
Just wondering how you think Jenkins is not ready for only our org’s top 10. What 10+ would you put in front of him? He was a consensus STL top 10 by every analyst I know of and his stuff matches that of a top 10er (top 5er in my opinion).
and I usually rank based on overall potential, not just what they’ve done so far. I know people rank differently so that’s why I ask.
Here’s mine.
1. Shelby Miller
2. Carlos Martinez
3. Zack Cox
4. Oscar Tavarez
5. Trevor Rosenthal
6. Jordan Swagerty
7. Kolten Wong
8. Matt Adams
9. Joe Kelly
10. John Gast
11. Tyrelle Jenkins
12. Boone Whiting
13. Charlie Tilson
14. Ryan Jackson
15. Tommy Pham
16. Adam Reifer
17. Cody Stanley
18. Aaron Luna
19. Cesar Valera
20. Garrett Wittels
I’ve got to believe if Wittels was that good – someone would have drafted him even with his legal issues.
I’m glad to see that folks aren’t forgetting about Tommy Pham. Although I have some difference with the lists here I also have Pham in the mid teens. If he can stay healthy he is the one multi faceted outfielder we have within striking distance of the majors.
Mine, with a distinct bit of heresy:
1. Oscar Taveras (!!)
2. Shelby Miller
3. Carlos Martinez
4. Kolten Wong
5. Matt Adams
6. Zack Cox
7. Trevor Rosenthal
8. Ryan Jackson
9. Boone Whiting
10. John Gast
11. Joe Kelly
12. Jordan Swagerty
13. Matt Carpenter
14. Keith Butler
15. Tyrell Jenkins
16. Adron Chambers
17. Justin Wright
18. Tommy Pham
19. Charlie Tilson
20. Dean Kiekhefer
Yes, Taveras ahead of Miller, for three reasons. One, and maybe the most important, I have developed some nervousness about Shelby regarding this suspension — although that could easily get resolved (and probably lead to a flip-flopping of the first two ranks). Two, Taveras has just raked. The question “just how good could this guy be?” is beginning to have a rather open-ended answer. Three, TINSTAAPP — although there is a LOT of pitching talent in this system. (Despite which, Reifer isn’t close to making this list.)
Whiting over Swaggerty?
Yes, because of the considerably greater likelihood (IMO) that if he sticks at all, he’ll stick as a starter.
Swagerty hasn’t shown anyone that he can’t stick at starter. His innings were way above normal so they switched him to BP at the end of the year as to not blow up his innings. He will be a starter next year.
Lest I be misunderstood, I hope you’re right. This system is swarming with pitching talent, and consequently I may underestimate Swagerty’s potential to start. It would be great if things did work out that way. I just don’t expect them to.
Question for discussion: Which is worth more, a #4 starter or a shutdown but non-closer reliever? That’s what I see as the upsides for Whiting and Swagerty, respectively. In my opinion the starter is more valuable, because finding guys who can become LAIMs (league-average innings munchers) is harder than finding guys who can be dominant in the eighth inning 50 times a year. It isn’t just about value added; it’s also about supply and demand. Again, I hope I’m wrong and Swagerty’s ceiling is higher than that, but at this time I am not prepared to state that it is.
Not sure if I agree with that. They be more valuable to our organization because we choose to spend 10+mil on 4th and 5th starters this year but many good teams develop number 4 starters and get them for league minimum. Swagerty in my book has as much or more potential as a starter than Whiting. Not taking away from Whiting but Swagerty just have more MLB stuff.
Very good question about what has mroe value. Does Lance Lynn hold more value for us as a shut down guy in the BP or as a number 4 starter?
I’m going to have to second the thought that the #4 starter is more valuable if capable. This is the slot that can wear your bullpen out or save it. The #5 is similar but because of the fewer starts, an argument could be made otherwise.
It wasn’t that long ago that teams sometimes had shutdown middle relievers that pitched 2-3 innings once or twice a week. That type of pitcher was extremely valuable. I don’t know if TLR would use him in that way, but I think Swaggerty could be that type of pitcher and if so would be as valuable as a 4-5 starter because, by pitching 2-3 innings of shutdown relief he would be the bridge to the closer without the risk of having to have 2 or 3 relievers all having a good night all on the same night. Having a reliever that can do that would also give TLR another pitcher or two every night with whom he can play match up games.
On Jenkins, he may have made top ten lists last year because our minor league system was so down last year that talent evaluators had nothing else to look at but potential. This year, however we have a lot more players that have added some very good results to their resumes which I would think will make a player like Jenkins, who is often described as “raw,” move down a few notches on most lists this year.
That does not mean that Jenkins is not as good a prospect as last year or that I am down on Jenkins. His results this year certainly give us hope for more to come in the future, but our system is just so much better this year that players with potential like Jenkins are going to have to give way to players with results like Adams.
I anticipate that Jenkins will go up based on his year in the Appy league, which was very, very good. Based on his K/9, low walk rate, and high GB rate, I think concerns about him being “raw” will go down.
Whiting getting a lot more love than I would expect for a PJ Walters clone.
I agree, and a lack of love for matt carpenter who has put together another pretty darn good season.
…and in Triple A, which carries a lot more weight with me than a Single A performance.
Here’s hoping he doesn’t turn into a PJ clone. PJ’s K/BB went south in a hurry in Memphis. PJ never had a sub .200 BAA either.
There’s a real risk of that, but he does have an extra tick or two on his fastball, and he’s still young. PJ is as good, with as much fastball velocity, as he’s ever going to be. Whiting is not. A very little extra velocity goes a long way with pitchers like this.
Pitchers usually don’t gain velocity at this level. Whiting seems to have a Shaun Marcum type profile which is pretty good.
There are plenty that do. You also dont whether he w=throwing 4 seemers or 2 seemers at this point.
I’m with you on Taveras, Grunt. Number one with a bullet—but not because of any skepticism about S. Miller. Taveras is just too good to rate below anyone this side of Mike Trout (who mightn’t be eligible for prospect lists by season’s end).
Exactly *how* rare was O.T.’s performance this year? Well, let’s see.
As a teenager in the Midwest League, Taveras posted an OPS 335 points above his league counterparts. You don’t need me to tell you how remarkable, how rare that is.
But I’ll tell you anyway. ;)
I did a bit of rudimentary research, about MWL teens over the past 20 seasons. Setting the bar at a minimum of 200 plate appearances, there’s no other teenager in the last two decades who posted an OPS 300 or more points above the league. Or even 290. Or even 275.
One guy was extremely close, though, at 274 points above the MWL as a teen. That was 17 years ago, and his name was Alex Rodriguez.
If we go back 25 years, we find someone who came much nearer to Oscar, at 319 points above the MWL as a teen. His name was Larry Walker.
It’s fair to say Taveras is in some pretty fine company.
Strong post, Robert
Bob, you just gave me an orgasmic level of excitement.
Pardon the crude and graphic nature of that comment ;)
game highlights from the quad cites game
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WafuWA2fvMw
My Top 10
Miller
Martinez
Taveras
Wong
Adams
Rosenthal
Jenkins
Cox
Jackson
Pham
btw
Kelly, Swagerty and Cleto come immediately after Pham.
I have Jackson and Pham over Kelly, Swagerty and Cleto because of organizational need. I believe the 3 pitchers I mentioned my end up being better ball players than the 2 guys ahead of them but with the organization starved for a SS and not having graduated an impact OF since Rasmus Jackson and Pham make my Top 10.
I could maybe see Cleto somewhere in the 15-20 area (there are lots of potential candidates for those), but question whether he’ll ever learn to command that big heater and to throw adequate second and third pitches.
I don’t think organizational need should factor into how the players rank, just my opinion though i think your list is not bad, I like that your High on pham like I am but I’m not sure if he will ever be able to hold it together and stay healthy.
Didn’t see this posted anywhere but it appears we released Francisco Samuel to make room for Sanchez who came off the DL.
The shoulder just never healed right . . .
I don’t believe we have released him. We have DFA’d him. If not claimed off waivers (with the requirement that the claiming team place him on their 40 man roster) , then he will remain in the Cardinal system but just be removed from the 40 man roster.
For some reason most people seem to equate DFA and release. They are not the same.
Sorry – You are right. It was a DFA. And yes I do understand the difference but I thought I heard he was released…but thats not the case.
Wasn’t meant as a vent at you specifically. I hear so many people try to use the term interchangably though.
No worries – I didn’t take it as a personal blow…just explaining that I had heard wrong.
I am excited about O.T as well as everyone else but I think that everyone is getting way too ahead of themselves thinking he is a top 10 prospect in all of baseball after 1 season (VERY terrific season) at low A ball. I think he has great potential also and his performance was outstanding but everyone has to remember there have been plenty of prospects who im sure put up ridiculous years only to fizz out befor they got the the bigs. Lets just not proclaim him a HOF’er yet and jynx ourselves!
I understand what you are getting at. Let me be the first to say I am not proclaiming OT a HOF’er. However, it isn’t just the kid’s numbers, it is how he is posting them – all reports are that he flat hits the ball hard. I haven’t seen or heard enough to know whether he passes on curveballs or not, but that would be the only downside I could see at this point. I say that because sometimes guys can post big MiLB numbers hitting fastballs by sitting on them because MiLB pitchers often can’t throw the consistent curve. You find out when they get to the majors when they post numbers 100 points lower.
FWIW, Jason Parks at BP rates OT as having the best hit tool in the minors:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15028
It’s a subscriber article, but I’ve given away the ending. He also gives Matt Adams the “most awkward body award” (while saying good things about his hitting), and rates the Cards as having a top-10 system this year.
I don’t know if Parks is a Cardinals fan by birthright, but he sure likes our players. A couple weeks ago he named Miller the top RHP and Wong the best 2B prospect.
parks grew up a rangers fan, he actually jokes around about texas in like half his articles
Everyone? As far as I know only Bob has said he thinks he is a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.
I’m going back and forth on whether or not organization need should factor into a prospect list. My first thought was to agree that it should not matter, but I guess since the object of this whole minor league exercise is to make it to the major leagues and having a spot open at a position increases the chances of a player getting the opportunity to succeed at the major league level. You would have to give some amount of weight (although not a lot IMO) to the opportunity that a player has within the system due to organizational need.
I would not think any weight is needed because if they are good enough, they will either force a trade of the player blocking them (Garza getting traded this offseason) or being traded themselves to fill a weakness of the org (any 1B prospect we have as long as we have AP).
What the hey…here’s my preliminary top 10 (pending changes due to actually thinking about it):
1. Miller
2. Martinez
3. Cox
4. Tavarez
5. Carpenter
6. Wong
7. Adams
8. Jenkins
9. Jackson
10. Rosenthal
I think I am going to try something a bit different now. A) Include Matt Carp….got some flack for not doing so earlier :)
B) I am going to separate hitters and pitchers. This will show the depth of each area in the system.
Top 10 Pitchers
1) Shelby Miller: Ace potential
2) Carlos Martinez (nee Matias): Somewhere between Pedro and Neftali…if we’re lucky
3) Tyrell Jenkins: Doc Gooden comps are premature….how about Fergie Jenkins comps?
4) Jordan Swagerty: Probably the top stuff among the middling types
5) Trevor Rosenthal: Very good fastball, what else?
6) Boone Whiting: Results. Results. Results
7) Joe Kelly: The makeup seems there, but the results have never quite matched the potential
8) John Gast: If his ceiling is Major League loogy, that would be great
9) Keith Butler: More results. Not all that familiar with the offerings
10) Adam Reifer: Could be a very good fireman
Top 10 Position players
1) Oscar Tavarez: Upon further review, his stats were crazy good in A ball. Might we see some Pujolsian acceleration?
2) Zack Cox: The bat has shown it plays…with adjustments. I think this guy is a baseball player
3 Kolten Wong: Could easily leapfrog Cox based on position, but right now he is here
4) Matt Adams: May be too low, but he did cool off later in the season
5) Matt Carpenter: Love the OBP tool. Does he possess enough of the other 4?
6) Ryan Jackson: Great glove + adequate bat = big league SS
7) Charlie Tilson: Will be one to watch next year
8) Tommy Pham: I think he will find a place in St Louis at some point
9) Aaron Luna: Collegiate 2B….Skip 2.0? Or just another very serviceable utility man
10) Adron Chambers: Was an oversight on original. He has to be ahead of DJ
Our pitching depth is definitely a bit better, but I am not so down on the hitters. If Tilson develops, Adams keeps hitting, and Oscar develops….we may have more offense than pitching sooner rather than later.
5) Trevor Rosenthal: Very good fastball, what else?
Cardinals told him last year that he had a MLB slider. He ditched it in favor of a pretty nasty curve. He needs to be more consistent with it, but he didn’t start throwing it until midway through season. Goldstein saw it his last game and gave it positive comments. He had great command that game and threw the curve 25% of the time.
It’s the Change he needs work on. However, of all the pitches, I have to believe that is the one you can learn – you can’t learn a 96 mph fastball.
I did inquire from a knowlegeable person why Rosenthal seemed to ditch the Slider. His theory is that was the request of the Club. He said Clubs/scouts are getting annoyed with the lack of good curveballs, and they aren’t as common as they used to be. Sliders are common and the theory is that hitters can handle them better because they see so many on them now. The opposite holds for a curve.
Rosenthal can also throw an “oh s**t” splitter, but Rosie believes that is what caused him the elbow flare last year at JC. It’s not beyond the realm of possibilities that he goes back to that pitch if/when he feels good about it. However, I seem to have also heard from somewhere else that splitters can cause arm problems if not thrown just right, so his caution might be warranted.
It’s kind of funny the mention of slider vs curve. When I was younger, it seemed that the Cards organization favored the slider. Now, it is very much the opposite (Carp, Waino, Izzy)
Either way, I hope you are right and Trevor has 3 good big league pitches. Velocity can’t be taught…that is true
Of course you are right in that at this point, Rosenthal only possesses the plus fastball as a MLB pitch. I was just pointing out that the curve is still new, but he made very good progress with it and his Change is the challenge, but he has a good work ethic, so I expect he will learn and if not perfect it, it will be a reasonably efficient offering.
I see what you’re saying, CJ…but my hyperventilatin’ about Taveras is based on his absurdly dominant 2011 AND his terrific 2010, as the youngest regular in the Appy League.
If Mike Trout “graduates” to the majors, Taveras is the #1 prospect in baseball…and the centerpiece of a top 3 (maybe top 1) farm system in all baseball. That doesn’t make Taveras a future Hall Of Famer—but it means he has at least as good a chance as anybody in the minors.
Kolten Wong the #1 keystone prospect? Nothing radical about that, at all. With Jose Altuve in the majors, Wong is the only (age appropriate) 2B prospect who exceeded his league OPS by at least 200 points this year. And he did so while controlling the strikezone at an elite level, making both his batting average and isolated slugging much more likely to hold up as he advances through the minors.
Wong would be in my top 20-25 prospects overall, maybe even top 15 depending on his glovework.
Holy Optimism!
I believe that is “Holy Optimism……Batman”
I think your glasses are so coverd in red rossary and your coolade cup so strong a flavor of cherry red that you can not be reasoned with lol. It’s good to be high on players and they do have some good potential but your going way overboard with it, just dont get too hurt when wong dosen’t make the top 100 prosepcts list and Tavarez dosen’t break the top 50.
If Taveras doesn’t make the top-50 list, then there’s something wrong with the list. Period.
Wong is a different matter. Everything about him to date suggests that he’s on track to be a useful, probably starter-quality (if not necessarily star) major-league second baseman. The question is, how rare is that among minor-league prospects? I honestly don’t know. Fellow 2011 first-rounder Cory Spangenberg (San Diego) is the only obvious comparable that I can find, now that guys like Ackley have graduated to the Show, and Wong probably is the more promising of the two. To the list, of course, must be added the ones that can’t make it with their gloves at SS and 3B, and they may suffice to push KW out of top-100 territory. They may not.
I’d expect Wong to show up on some top 100 lists but not others. It won’t be an injustice either way. But for Taveras not to be top-50 shows either that the list maker isn’t paying attention, or that he sees something wrong with Taveras that nobody else has been able to find yet, including opposing pitchers and managers.
I agree that players still have value as a trade able commodity even if they are blocked in one organization. I don’t know that Garza is the best example because that trade was in part a salary dump, but when you talk about a player being good enough to force a trade or get traded you are talking about A prospects. Certainly somebody like Miller will force the Cardinals to open a spot for him in the rotation and give him an extended chance to develop and succeed, but most players in the major leagues are not A prospects. I think Lynn would be a good example. He has pitched very well in relief this year, but I don’t think the Cardinals are going to open up a starting spot for him next year. Now he may get a few spot starts and if he does well he could work into a starting role but with a starting rotation that is pretty much set for next year does not have a very high probability of succeeding as a starter next year, but if he were in Pittsburgh or KC, I think the future would look totally different for him. He probably would have gotten an extended chance to start this year and would go into next year with a spot in the rotation.
Alright, I’ve spent way too much time writing and rewriting this paragraph. ICF out.
Looks like Tilson will be the only drafted Cardinal to receive a $million dollar + bonus and not open on anyone’s top 10 list.
Testimonial of the depth of the system now and not a knock on Tilson’s talent IMO. Last year he makes the Top 10 for me.
Frankly, I don’t know whether he belongs on my top-10 (or top-20) list or not. Still too little professional experience to evaluate, and therefore a pig in a poke. However, it’s an attractive pig. I look forward to seeing what he does next year.
If you think I’m optimistic about Wong, Franklin, I’ll elaborate a bit re: what I expect from the young man.
Lefty-hitting Dustin Pedroia. That about sums it up.
Okay, maybe a bit higher batting average, but a bit less power—but effectively the same player. Solid D, and above average baserunning value, married to well above-average offense for his position. Basically a 4-5 win player in his prime years, with a 6-7 win season or two mixed in.
Helluva hitter in college, helluva hitter in the Cape League, and a helluva hitter in the MWL at age 20—the only (not J. Marisnick, not league MVP R. Liriano) age-appropriate Midwest League hitter with an OPS 200+ points above the League this year.
Well, the only one except for Oscar Taveras, of course. :)
I guess my reaction was more about their rankings than how I personally feel about their potential. I’m a big fan of both of these guys, and I really like the arguments that Oscar should be ranked ahead of Carlos and Kolten ahead of Cox. But, don’t players usually need a little more history and achievement at higher levels to warrant a #1 prospect ranking? Do Oscar’s durability issues factor into rankings? Wouldn’t you expect pundits to (perhaps rightfully so) point to his high BABIP and low (by top 5 overall prospect standards) power as reasons to bump him down on the list? And while I’m playing devil’s advocate, what about his speed? Does it relegate him to right field? Why does he only have one stolen base in five attempts?
Speaking of stolen bases; didn’t Kolten start the season 0-5 in stolen base attempts? If I’m not making that up, then it’s nice to see that he finished it with nine straight successful attempts.
Is .440 really a high BABIP when your finish the year hitting .386?
Having seen Taveras he has power potential and has the body to fill in. Remember we are talking about oa 19 year old. His speed is fine but his hammy did cause him to slow down this year. Speaking of speed and hustle, he is the guy who in game 4 of the year hit a sharp groundball to the 2b and beat the throw to 1b. Unfortunately he hustled on that play because that is the play he pulled his hamstring.
I think he got thrown out last night….but it was on a pitch-out
You Bob Reed on Cards Nation?
Si. Me Bob Reed on Cards Nation. Me Bob Reed everyplace me go. ;)
Franklin: I don’t see Taveras as having durability issues. He was healthy in 2010, healthy in ’09, and has been OK since June. His two DL stints were effectively *one* injury, from which he didn’t give himself sufficient recovery time.
As for Oscar’s experience level, plenty of prospects have ranked in the top 3 overall with little or no time above Low-A. (This just in, Taveras hits go-ahead homer and Q.C wins playoff game. Big surprise.)
Taveras—according to the scouts just polled by BP’s Jason Parks—has the best “hit tool” in the minors. “The voices sing in unison on his hit tool,” said Mr. Parks.
As for Oscar’s power, an isolated slugging of .200 for a teenager in the Midwest League is excellent. For a teenager who hits .350+, it’s fantastic. (And don’t overlook the ISO of .235 in July, or the .228 in August.) This kid, as Jason Parks observed, is simply a gifted hitter.
I do have to say that I don’t believe his hammy has recovered fully yet. He still doesn’t have the acceleration that he had at the start of the year before the injury.