Rank Quad Cities Starting Pitchers
Posted on September 15th, 2011 by Jeff in Quad Cities River BanditsSince this is Quad Cities week as the team is up 1-0 already in the Midwest League Championship Series, let’s rank some pitchers. If you were handed a prospect ballot, how would you rank RiverBandits’ starting rotation:
RHP Boone Whiting
LHP Anthony Ferrara
RHP Trevor Rosenthal
RHP Zach Russell
LHP Ryan Copeland
Entries (RSS)
Hmm. This seems straightforward to me. Rosenthal is the consensus top prospect of the group. Ferrara and Whiting are close for me, with Ferrara having an advantage by being left handed. It looks as though both will have opportunities to make it, though. Then, I would put Copeland next. As a lefty, he always has a shot of making it. That leaves Russell as the fifth pitcher.
Ranking these five is somewhat arbitrary, though, because Rosenthal is well ahead and the rest are very close.
This is a pretty good group of pitchers at low A, though. If the worst of these ends up being PJ Walters (as has been mentioned here at times), then you can’t complain. PJ Walters was a valuable commodity, performing well in the minors, making several MLB appearances, and having some good games. Realistically, one of the five will probably get injured, one won’t be good enough, two will be bullpen arms, and one makes the show as a starter. That would be a good haul though. As a bonus, they are all interesting.
Rosie
Big Gap
Whiting
Ferrara
Russell
Copeland
I don’t recall “Big Gap” having a roster spot…. :)
I will second this list. Russell had a rough start to the year, but had some solid spots. Copeland can pitch, no doubt about it, I’m just concerned the hitters will catch up with him first as this group moves up the ladder
I actually put another gap between Whiting and Ferrara having seen both. Ferrara doesn’t strike out enough htters at this level for my taste.
The hard part is that Ferrara might make it as a loogy. I dont think Whiting makes it in the bullpen so it is back of the rotation starter or bust and he has a high bust probability.
I’m less worried about Ferrara’s K rate than I am his walk rate!
I just looked that up, pretty ugly. The time I caught him he was around the zone, if I remember right he didn’t challenge the middle of Kane Countys order. That was his walks. He actually mowed down the bottom of the order rather easily.
This was KC though and I didn’t think they had a much of a line-up this year.
Rosenthal
Whiting
Ferrara
Russell
Copeland
Ditto
What Ted said.
Well okay, what Ted said without conviction.
what’s with the collective dislike for copeland? i can see not loving him more than rosenthal, whiting, or ferrara, but worse than russell?
i realize copeland is old for his level, but he’s just finishing his first full pro season, and with a 3.29 FIP. russell is only a year younger, has spent three more years in pro ball, and finished the season with a 4.48 FIP. what am i missing?
also: fair to say the whole class moves up together next year?
Don’t you think Carlos starts out @ PB in 2012? Maybe one of the 5 current QC starters begins the year in the pen until Sir Carlos moves up.
I think they move the whole unit up. They will keep these guys together if they win the champions again this year. C-Mart is ready for Springfield.
What did CMart do to earn a promotion to Springfield?
I don’t agree with Martinez to Springfield to start the season. Upward moves of starting pitchers are largely based upon one of two requirements: (1) consistent domination at the lower level; or (2) age/years in the system of one that has consistently been performing in the top 1/2 of the rotation, which in essence is a time to push to see if they perform or run into a wall. Martinez is inconsistent at this point, there is no need for the Cards to challenge this youngster and make him face better batters, and he needs to gain some mental maturity. A domination first 1/3 or first 1/2 of the 2012 season in PB will get him promoted.
I agree with all points—however, if Carlos M. shows *very* well in Spring Training (either v. MLB guys or the minors), I wouldn’t mind his starting in Springfield next year.
As for the QC guys, my ranking is pretty conventional.
1) Rosie
2) Ferrara
3) Whiting
4) Russell
5) Copeland
Ferrara by the slimmest of margins over Whiting. They’re the same age (within two weeks) with the same potential to add (or not add) velocity based on both being listed at 6′ 1″ and 175. But as I understand it, they both work their fastball at roughly 88-91/92, and that’s distinctly more acceptable for a southpaw.
Ferrara is also more of a groundball guy than Boone, which is another small edge for the lefty. Ask me again tomorrow, though, and I might prefer Whiting; he struck out more guys, walked fewer, and doesn’t have Anthony’s checkered health history.
I guess part of it is just my gut. Ferrara *feels* like a “real prospect” who finally got healthy three years after being drafted as a pretty highly regarded high school arm…while Whiting *feels* like a late-round small college guy who can control hitters in the lower minors, but might stall out in AA or AAA. Or maybe I’m selling him short.
Copeland has to be the bottom guy, as he’s already 23, and had an ERA over 5 as a starter this year.
By the way, it was kinda funny to see Kevin Goldstein’s glowing remarks about Rosenthal the other day, after K.G. basically dismissed the kid as a non-prospect in a podcast several weeks back. Nice to see how his position has evolved.
we’re still dealing with ERA as a means to evaluate pitchers? somehow i don’t think that 59.4% LOB average is likely to sustain.
It is not that simple. Look at a likely AA rotation
Hooker
Gorgon
Swagerty
Gast/Kelly – one of them to AAA
Fornataro
Blazek – maybe to AAA as he made a couple of spot starts.
And that doesn’t include Thomas, Schneider, or Mcgregor who have started there at some time
To move everyone up you have to find a place for:
Martinez
Lyons
Seigrest
Castillo
Nieto (Castillo and Nieto – particularly Castillo – pitched very well at the end of the year)
I’d also say Maness has a decent chance to start at PB as well.
Tough decisions ahead.
Rosenthal will likely get to Springfield next year after starting at PB. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again – after next season Rosenthal has to be on the 40 man or he is exposed to Rule 5. Unless he gets injured or performs poorly, he is a classic Rule 5 draft pick. They will have to move him to AA to determine if he should be added to the 40 man.
I think there is going to be some thinning out of the AA rotation and some guys will go to the bullpen – as I recall, the AA staff didn’t really do that well other than Miller.
We don’t know if Gorgon will really actually be healthy again. It’s assumed but hasn’t he missed 2 years already? I think the organization may cut Fornataro and Blazek. and Nieto or Castillo.
Almost no one assumes that Wainwright will be healthy next year but gorgon who had his survey 5 months earlier wont be ready?
No way Fornataro or Castillo are cut before the start of the season. They liked Blazek enough to give him 2 AAA starts where he performed well.
Nieto has been pretty inconsistent but when he is on he is pretty good.
Have you seen Fornataro pitch or talked to those that have. He gets high marks from scouts. Add in his consistency and durability and I see a possible Mitchell Boggs.
Yes I have seen Fornataro about 3 times at QC. He’s got good stuff but is very hittable and average results. The organization has to start thinning out pitchers who do you think will be thinned out? Fornataro doesn’t have the secondard pitch that Boggs has.
Hasn’t Gorgon already had 2 TJ surgery’s?
Less hittable at PB than Boggs was. Boggs was a year younger and skipped QC but he came from a major college program while Fornataro came from a JC program. Fornataro also had an extremely strong second half. I’ll put money on Fornataro being in the Springfield rotation to start 2012 and if not that at least as a reliever.
Nope, Gorgen has only had one TJ surgery unless you also count the one his twin brother had :)
Just saying, he doesn’t have a secondary pitch or at least a good one.
Fornataro had 2 seasons of juco ball. His college experience may have been more than Boggs, who played football one year.
The Cards have brought Fornataro along more deliberately than Boggs. This is just a change of organizational style and does not signify potential.
We agree Fornataro is ready for AA in 2012.
No, the organization does not have to “thin” out pitchers. We need pitchers to staff up the minors. A lot of innings have to be eaten. Having depth prevents injuries.
True, but you can’t keep everyone at the expense of challenging guys who need to move up. The draft stocks all kind of “organizational” pitchers every year – from those that aren’t cut, some start pushing up. Decisions have to be made as to whether the Organization thinks certain pitchers will actually make the Club. If not, those guys have to go find a home with another Club. You can’t play the “what if” game forever…If no one is pushing up, then fine, but that isn’t our case at this point in time….
We had a shortfall of pitching at AA this year. We traded Walters and others may also become free agents at AAA. The higher levels of the system can benefit from more pitchers.
Tony’s wife, did Springfield play a game where they didn’t have a pitcher this year? I must have missed that. There may have been a quality problem but let’s see you lay out your case that there was a quantity problem.
Of course there was a “quality” problem. Mrs. TLR doesn’t realize she is taking both sides of the issue.
Nobody wants to “thin out” pitchers that can contribute at the major league level. However, there most certainly are guys who are organizational players taking spots from guys the Organization needs to make a determination on.
These QC pitchers will likely be in PB’s starting rotation next year barring unforseen circumstances:
Rosenthal
Martinez
Whiting
Ferrara
That’s a pretty big influx and that isn’t counting some of the bullpen guys that will move up with them.
Currenlty on the AA roster, something has to give because of those 4 above, I have stated I see no way Rosenthal doesn’t finish at AA and Martinez probably does – but being younger, they may want to keep him at PB. Now, count in the current PB roster of pitchers – they either have to move up to AA or get cut.
There is a real numbers crunch. That is where the “thinning out” comes from Mrs. TLR.
I retract on Fornataro, he had a better 2011 than I had thought. His 2010 was pretty poor though. I also can think of a great many other pitchers at Springfield that should be starting than him.
Fornatero has great stuff, and in alot of games he dominated for 5 innings, no way hey cut him. I agree with carioca, mitchell boggs is a decent comparison.
Swagerty,
Gast,
Hooker, and
Kelly
(barring injury or being in AAA which none appear quite ready for) are locks for the 2012 AA rotation.
In AAA, Miller, Cleto, Dickson and Addition are going to have spots. Historically the Cards have filled a spot or two in the AAA rotation with AAAA guys. May not need to do that next year with Otto, Broderick, etc. . . possibly still around.
That leaves potentially one open rotation spot in AA and one in AAA to start next year.
It is correct that the AA pitching (particularly the bullpen) was poor in 2011. However, it must be qualified that Miller, Gast and Kelly were here for a half season or less. Kelly likely wasn’t quite ready when he was promoted, and Hooker spent most of the year on the dl. Swagerty, due to his innings cap, did not make a AA start. Next year’s AA rotation should be something special. I’m not sure what the AA offense will look like, but the projected rotation has loads of potential. Butler and Wright, if as good as advertised, could round out a great pitching staff.
Miller and Martinez have had, and will continue to have, priority. When Martinez is ready, I’m guessing midseason, he will have the other AA spot. There is always the possibility that by then some of these guys get injured or moved. However, it is abundantly clear that every starter in A or A- ball that had a good year this year isn’t going to be moved up a level, however deserving a promotion might be, to begin 2012.
As for a couple of the less heralded guys, I have seen Blazek a couple of times live, and came away relatively underwhelmed. However, Warner has said a number of times to the local press, emphatically, that he is “this close” to putting it all together. I think his view of Blazek was important in the decision to give him spot starts in Memphis this year, and he will have a voice in the conversation about what becomes of him next year. Gorgon was good here in 2010, but can’t seem to stay healthy. As I think Az has mentioned here or elsewhere, he may fall victim to a numbers crunch next year unless he has a dynamite spring.
It is wonderful to have these kinds of ‘problems.’
Copeland has strong secondary pitches, the problem is his fastball is not great.
Saw Copeland pitch a gem against Peoria at the end of the year. He’s not a soft tosser but he’s more like a crafty lefty.
Rosenthal
Whiting
Copeland
Ferrara
Russell
Rosenthal is the only one I see having any potential impact in the majors.
It may not be as a Cardinal, but I think Whiting will start effectively for a ML team.
Agreed with some previous statements msrtinez is a teenager still I believe and needs to find consistency and build some more stamina and work on command and secondary pitches befor being bumped to Springfield. I think he will spend most if not all of the season in pb next year
QC is now up 2 games to zero in the MWL Championship and playing at home Saturday with Rosenthal getting the start. If anyone is within driving distance and thinking about making a trip, Saturday would seem like the perfect opportunity.
I know this isn’t technically future redbird material but….
Do you guys think we’ll nontender Theriot and Schumacker? Any trade value there? Let’s package them up and get a B- prospect or something, between the two of them they’d cost 7-8M or so next year. Give the 2B job to DD which he has proven he can play and then sign Jose Reyes!!! That’s my vote!
I also don’t want us to resign AP for a organizational damaging contract. 6/138M at an absolute max if we do. He’s a 5WAR player this year, he’s obviously past his prime and on the decline, anyone who disagrees with that is nuts. So if he’s 5WAR now, imagine what he’ll be in 7 or 8 years. I’m not saying he doesn’t have a couple more 7 or 8WAR years in him, but won’t be close to that in 8 years.
Thoughts???
I said something to the like over on VEB. Reyes is younger and will come with a shorter contract you are looking at a 5-6/120M type contract.
I think Skippy will be back; he’s improved at 2B, Dirty Dan isn’t really an offensive upgrade and is better suited to the gritty-utilityman role (which he fills exceptionally well), and nothing in the minors will be ready yet next year. Theriot is more uncertain. Normally, non-tendering him would be a no-brainer; he simply isn’t very good, as even TLR has figured out. However, Furcal has not shown himself to be worth keeping, at the price he’ll command, and again, minor-league help (Jackson) is at least a year away. So non-tendering Riot more or less commits the team to pursuit of an expensive free-agent SS, unless someone puts a metaphorical gun to TLR’s head and orders him to play Greene — and I’m not sure that would be a good idea.
So it comes down to the question of whether, in effect, to trade Pujols for Reyes and cash, and in effect, also trading Riot for a first baseman to be named later. I am opposed. For one thing, we don’t know that we can GET Reyes. Wanting him very, very badly does not guarantee that we can outbid others for his services. Failure to have EITHER Pujols or Reyes next year would be … unfortunate. Second, Reyes’ health scares me, and SS is a taxing position to play. Third, an AP replacement from within is still a year away, and that’s only if Adams lives up to hopes. (You really don’t want Stavinoha at first, do you?) Finally, your premise that AP is in decline is not clearly correct. Discard the ghastly first six weeks of the season, which I believe to have been a contract-related aberration, and he’s been the same fearsome Mang this year as ever. Yes, he’ll be on the decline in six or seven years. So will Reyes (BigJawn, if you think Reyes will settle for a 5-year contract, I’d like some of what you’re smoking).
Seen in this light, I am not so sure that non-tendering Riot is right. I think I’d still do it if I was Mo, and trust to either rapid Jackson maturation or Greene getting off TLR’s blacklist or doing something creative with trades or free agents, but I’m not as sure about that as I once was. There are real, interesting decisions to be made this off season!
You forgot to calculate that another year of Skippy and Riot would be the death of me. My heart can’t take it. I agree that Skippy has improved his fielding, but the mobility of both men continues to be worse than awful. Two steps to the left then SPLAT, two steps to the right…repeat. In this regard, he and Theriot are indeed mirror copies of each other.
I do still think that Albert is showing decline. He has led hitting into DP’s all year long and no one is close. The 3 errors the other day are cause for pause as well. Not saying I don’t want the team to try to sign him, but, that is going to be an awful contract after 5 years. Probably sooner.
I agree that Reyes isn’t a sure thing, even if you want him really really badly. It would be easy for the Yankees to outbid us and would not even require a permanent change of station…
When you consider the inevitable decline and moral obligation to pursue, few options are attractive.
It would be nice if Skip had improved at 2B, but that’s not really true. His defensive metrics at 2B are just as bad as they’ve always been. His UZR this year “improved” over last year but is pretty much the same as in 2009, actually a bit worse (though in a smaller amount of innings due to his decrease playing time this year). He’s had an increase of innings in the OF this year which has boosted his overall numbers.
As for his hitting, his batting average has rebounded but almost everything else about his offense is actually a tick worse than last year. Walk percentage, ISO, speed, and strikeouts are all worse than 2010. Descalso could probably equal or almost equal Skip’s offense, and I’d be willing to bet he’d play better defense too. I’m not even saying Descalso should be our starting 2B or anything, I’m just saying there is no reason to keep Skip around.
There’s absolutely no reason to keep Theriot.
Amen. I don’t even know how the “Skip has improved at 2B” story got started. The defensive numbers don’t back it up and watching him, he looks as bad as ever. And Skip’s offense is bad too.
I disagree, he’s a .300 hitter this year. His defense has improved but he does still muff too many easy ground balls.
Skippy is possibly a keeper for utility, but Theriot has to go.
However, 3M for a utility guy is not ok……
No, his defense hasn’t improved. And he’s a sub.700 ops hitter. He’s bad.
Pujols in decline? The fact that we can even consider the numbers he’s put up this year part of a decline is really only a testament to how amazingly consistent he has been. I do agree that the money and years he is looking for could be franchise crippling at some point in the future, but it is certainly hard for me to imagine him playing for anybody else.
Who in the heck is this Gorgon fellow? Are you fellows talking about Scott Gorgen?
Yep, Scott Gorgen..My list as the same as Bob’s, tho it could change next season..
One kind of interesting side note to the discussion of QC pitchers:
BP now has stats for minor-league defensive efficiency. QC is listed as .714. (The best in all of low-A ball is Savannah, at .715.)
By comparison, the Cardinals are 21st in MLB, at .703.
Big point: Maybe the pitching at QC has been helped by the defense more than we think. I guess we’ll find out as everyone moves up.
BTW, BA has released its minor-league all-star teams. OT made the team for low-A and the second team overall. Shelby is first team for both AA and overall.
Matt Williams (shortstop) and Tyrell Jenkins are named for Rookie leagues, along with Todd McInnis (SP) for short-season A. Nobody for high-A or AAA. Johnny Rodriguez is manager of the year for Rookie leagues.
Thanks for a very interesting post. I would think Taveras’ inclusion as 2d team in the minors might imply a top 50 prospect status.
You mean top 50 All-time prospects? That sounds about right. ;)
Seriously, though, just wait until the scouts getta load of Taveras in the AFL. Suddenly O.T. will take a huge leap forward on all the prospect lists—though, to be fair, John Sickels has *already* acknowledged that Oscar has taken an enormous lead forward in his eyes. (And Sickels was *much* higher on Taveras than BA, even before Oscar’s unprecedented Midwest League dominance.)
Excerpt from random future Baseball America chat:
Q: What made you guys miss so badly on Oscar Taveras? Last year you only had him 24th in a mediocre Cardinal farm system, after his excellent Appy League season—then didn’t even have him in your mid-season top 50, while he was absolutely killing the Midwest League. What was it you missed?
A: I have no idea what you are talking about. We’ve always loved Oscar Taveras. We ranked him 4th in our Appy League rankings in 2010. We’ve always loved Oscar Taveras.
Anyway, thanks, Lou, for the BP minor league defense news. Do they still do the Davenport translations–both present and peak? I haven’t seen those on their stats page, and am very curious to know what the “peaks” are projected to be for Matt Adams, Ryan Jackson, and Matt Carpenter (as well as Wong & Taveras, of course).
I haven’t seen them. I’ve tried using some standard BP stats to sort out minor leaguers, and the results are gibberish more often than not. Whatever that new database is that they’re using, it’s not fully operational yet.
Boone Whiting is the most overrated pitcher in the cardinals organization.
Could be, but until his stats decline I would have a hard time saying that. But for many he doesn’t project as well as his stats currently reflect. I prefer to let the player do his own projecting – ya never know….
I think you have to be “rated,” before you can be overrated. I don’t think I’ve seen Whiting on any prospect lists this offseason.
Fair point – he isn’t on any top 10′s. One list has him #28 in the Cardinal System – I thought that was a fair ranking.
As Copeland’s girlfriend I’d have to vote him at the top obviously! I know people will critisize but he’s bound for a great year so I hope the fine writers here get to sit with me at another game this year (hopefully when he’s pitching this time!) He’s had a really good offseason. Congrats to both Boone and Rosie who got married this offseason to some wonderful ladies, too! It’s going to be a great season for the Cards, hope everyone enjoys :)
Thanks, and welcome to Future Redbirds! We’re pulling for your bf to make it to the Show — as we pull for all the farm hands. Stay in touch!
Thanks guys! Hoping for a good season :)
The old crafty Lefty! We all wish him luck! Two rings in two years!
Yes, I’m so excited to see the rings they get from last season! he’s been blessed to be on two phenomenal teams with some awesome teammates! -stephanie
Missouri Valley Champions With Illinois State… Make that 3 rings in 2 years