The Arizona Fall League is set to begin in a little more than a week on Tuesday October 4th. The Cardinals currently have 7 players listed to head to Arizona to play on the Peoria Javelinas. The teams will play for 7 weeks finishing up in mid-November. Cardinal players currently on the roster include:
- RHP Keith Bulter (QC/PB)
- RHP David Kopp (SPR/MEM)
- LHP Tyler Lyons (PB)
- LHP Justin Wright ( GCL/QC/PB)
- 1B Matt Adams (SPR)
- SS Ryan Jackson (SPR)
- OF Oscar Taveras (QC)
We’ll continue to cover the players daily performance though afternoon posting may be diminished as we wind down at Future Redbirds. Once the league is over, I expect FR will go dormant till December when we’ll roll out our top 20 prospects list. During this time we’re also working on some articles for other endeavors that we’ll share details about as the works are published.
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On looking at this list, it seems like the team is serious about sending real prospects to hit in the AFL, while being careful not to expose anyone who has meaningful chances of stardom as a pitcher. I can imagine Butler and Wright, at least, being “useful” major league relievers, but they’re not going to set the world on fire. None are future MLB starters. Presumably that’s a concession to keeping work load down for the futures starters they really do care about — Shelby, Martinez, maybe Rosenthal and Whiting, etc.
Do other teams engage in this same schizophrenic-looking allocation of their AFL spots? If so, it might go a long way toward explaining which the AFL is generally thought of as an extreme hitter’s league. OTOH, if not, why do the Cardinals do it the way they do?
i suspect it’s mostly about innings. the cards are rightfully concerned about how many innings they put on young arms. putting a young pitcher in the AFL after throwing a full season seems like a poor risk to take. the big arms in the system were generally getting rest or reduced innings even at the end of the regular season – shelby, martinez, swagerty.
in the recent past, many of the bigger names that spent time pitching in the AFL were coming back from injury and had not thrown much in the prior season (kopp, parisi). otherwise, relievers make more sense as the innings burden won’t be so high.
I think Wainwright spent time there too, but I think he might have been recovering from injury/surgery too, and he left early to get married. That’s from memory though, so don’t quote me.
Of course it’s about innings, and you’re correct, they are “rightfully concerned” to keep the count down. Swagerty, however, is exactly what puzzles me, because he has NOT had a high inning count — 93+ spread across three leagues — and his performance in those innings is such as to create interest in exactly what they’ve got there. I wouldn’t have wanted Miller, Martinez, Rosenthal, Whiting, etc., to go to the AFL. But Swagerty might have been … interesting.
Again, my main interest is how the Cardinals’ “contributions” to AFL pitching stack up to everyone else’s. To answer my own question, I poked around the AFL rosters, and found that the other pitchers pretty well fit the mold of Kopp, Butler, etc.: not the top prospects (except for those signed in 2011 who started late this season, or even didn’t pitch at all) and primarily guys with fewer than 90 innings in the regular season. However, there were a few who had Swagerty-like profiles and innings counts. Anyway, all this argues that while a good AFL for Taveras, Jackson and Adams is still a good thing, it’ll have to be taken with a grain of salt because of the sub-standard pitching they’ll face.
but swagerty’s numbers were low because he had no track record of pitching even 90 innings in prior seasons.
in 2009, he threw 58 for ASU. in 2010, he threw 39. remember he was a reliever prior to the draft, with no history of starting.
while, in the grand scheme of things. 93 innings is low, for swagerty it was not.
I look forward the performance of Mr. Adams in the AFL. His importance to the organization shall jump dramatically if Albert is not resigned.
Absolutely it will! Am glad we resigned Berkman for next year to give Mr. Adams up to an extra year to work on his game in the minors, and still be able to transition him in slower than if both Pujols and Berkman left after this year.
Berkman has resigned for 1 year. Also, Allen Craig played 1st base in Memphis, and that could be a spot for him as well if Pujols leaves. Still, if Adams is legit, it’s good to have depth long-term.
I was surprised the Cards resigned Berkman for $12m so quickly. Why the rush? It only makes sense as Albert insurance and the speed of the signing tells me the Cards have serious concerns about being able to retain Albert. With Berkman on a 1 year contract and Mr. Adams ticketed for Memphis in 2012, I have to believe Matt will be given every opportunity to seize the 1B job in 2013 should Albert have departed for the big payday. Should all this come to pass, one can only hope TLR shall have moved on to some franchise in a win now mode.
Not sure why people totally discount Hamilton. It can’t be his .936 AAA OPS. My guess is it is his meager .515 OPS in 61 AB’s. OF course what people fail to realize is that that number is much hgher than Allen Craig had in his first 61 major league AB’s. Should Craig have been swept under the rug at that point as people want to do with Hamilton?
Maybe its the glasses
I just don’t see a role for Hamilton unless it is the bench. If we don’t resign Pujols, they aren’t giving the 1B job to Hamilton IMHO. It Berkman’s in 2012, with Adams the starting 1B in Memphis. I’m not even sure Hamilton survives on the 40 man roster despite the power because there really is no place to play him. Other guys on the 25 man can play 1B (Craig and Freese). Fast forward to 2013. You can’t carry two first base prospects on the 40 man when neither can really play anywhere but 1B. If the organization has to choose between Adams and Hamilton, who do they choose? Maybe Hamilton can play the outfield in Memphis in 2012 and make his case that he’s a legit bench corner outfield / 1B who with a power bat. I like Hamilton but the personnel situation does not line up well for him in STL. TLR doesn’t like inexperienced bench players. I think he would get a better look elsewhere.
AP insurance, but also a marker put down for the selfsame AP: we’re going to put the best possible team out there with you.
I cannot, under _any_ conditions, imagine Hamilton playing first for a contending team, let alone this one.
Adams, however, is a different story. If he continues to mash the ball at Memphis, and they do sign AP, then he is an awfully valuable asset to have blocked and stuck in the minors. (Note that I am still not convinced he will do so, but one can hope.) So how to deal with it? He doesn’t have the athleticism for any position but first. Is there any possibility that AP might move back to 3B or RF or LF to make room for him? Seems unlikely.
The truth to the matter is that there were really no other pitchers to send. Most had put in significant work this past season.
Big test here for Taveras. I think if he finishes strong in the AFL he will start at either Springfield or only spend a month or so at PB.
Hello from Thailand
To FR my thanks for the timely and interesting reports. Look forward to a resumption of the regular postings.
If any of the staff comes to Bangkok, beverage of choice is on me.
This year, Tavarez in the AFL. Next year, Springfield. 2013—St Louis
That sounds pretty good :)
OT: Albert finishing with another 300, 30, 100 season—–yes or no?
I will stick to my guns—-never bet against The Machine
Would it start another cycle of pain and recrimination if I mentioned that Mr. Rasmus is 4-52 in his last 14 games and is now batting .181 for his new team? Oh well, let’s see ;)
He can’t possibility keep playing this badly can he? I do think he will pick things up next year, but it does make you wonder again about the fragility of his mental make up. It also leaves the door slightly ajar on the idea that old, curmudgeonly TLR might actually know what he is doing when it comes to breaking in our prospects. Although that is not a thought I’ve ever been entirely comfortable with. It is a small sample size at the moment but as with a lot of minor league prospects that’s all we got.
OT – 6, KW – 12
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2012/2612401.html
With this little footnote, passed without comment: “Another righthander, Carlos Martinez, drew comparisons to Pedro Martinez (no relation) and would have given [Taijuan] Walker a run for the top spot had he not been promoted after just eight starts for eventual champion Quad Cities.”
I’m almost tempted to sign up for their “Premium” service, the better to see just how that top-20 list was arrived at. Truthfully, as thoroughly as QC dominated the league, I’m surprised that neither Rosenthal nor Whiting made it.
think it was mentioned in a tweet that these are all ranked based on future big league projections, not on what they did this season.
and here’s DG with a part of the chat addressing Rosenthal. http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/article_8f174b00-e942-11e0-b0c6-0019bb30f31a.html
I did catch Billy Hamilton play. Lots of fun to watch but he is getting a good chunk of that ranking off the position he plays. He aint going to hit enough.
The rest of the list is pretty solid. Walker, I missed but heard really good things. Marisnick, Liriano, and Tavares all have a chance to make it and be above average players and occasional All Stars. Castellanos was really young and playing a tough position pretty well. Wong was the best middle infield prospect I saw personally.
I thought this was a bad pitching year overall in the Midwest League…the pitchers outside walker are a real crap shoot.
Effort issues with Taveras, that never sounds good.
He’s 19 years old. He’s still a kid and sometimes his mind leaves the game. Nothing that doesn’t change as he matures as a person.
we hope.
I’d say that is most evident in his defensive play. He sometimes seems disinterested when in the field – though I’ve only seen him a handful of times.
There’s nothing nefarious about how BA puts together its lists, and I say that as someone who used to think there was some kind of bias against the Cards’ prospects. Now I know there was no bias. The guys I got worked up about just weren’t very good. And some of the guys who became either stars or solid players — Yadi, B. Ryan, Schu — weren’t really on my radar, either.
In the chat, Callis says several times that the MWL has 16 teams. PIcking the best 20 is quite a bit different from picking the top 20 in the 8-team Texas League.
A couple of our QC guys, like Taveras and Rosenthal, get a lot more enthusiasm from stat-based evaluators like BP than from scout-based pubs like BA. We can’t really guess which side has the better take until they either do or don’t make it in the majors. And by then, chances are we’ll have long forgotten what people said about them when they were in A ball.
Good observation about scouts vs stats. I never really thought about that before.
That does make sense but Rosenthal has a plus fastball, keeps the ball down and is a bulldog. Scouts don’t like a guy that can shit 97 through a championship game? And any scout who saw Taveras hit knows he has the best hit tool in the MWL. Rosenthal and Taveras aren’t s pecial just for their stats but also for there tools.
97? I’m no scout, but championship game or not, that’s special.
“a…game.” Remember, Lynn hit high 90s in his championship game last season, and he normally doesn’t throw there. Championship, being what they are and at the end of the season, aren’t really good barameters of expected season-long performance. Scouts pay attention all year.
Lynn never threw high 90′s. Max during that championship game he was 94-95, and that was dominating at the time before he hadn’t gone over 91-92 before than. Rosenthal can sit 97 mph. He did during the first game of the season and the last game. He worked during the year to find a good middle point between overthrowing and not throwing hard enough. I think he can comfortably work in the 95 mph range all yaer.
If Rosenthal can s**t 97, how would a scout verify that?
Think Gallagher audience with radar guns. I’m pretty sure Fangraphs had Sfx data that proved a direct correlation between age and command and control issues.
Dotel now projects as a Type A … that has to hurt our chances of us offering him arb and getting draft picks. Furcal – B, Jackson – B, Rhodes – B
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/09/2010-11-reverse-engineered-elias-rankings.html
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dotel back, given how well he’s done. I can’t remember, but does he have an option.
I don’t think Rhodes will be offered arbritration; given how his season has gone, he may take it, and if the Cardinals don’t want him back, they’re not going to take that risk.
Jackson, definitely. Too bad he’s only a Type B.
That’s unfortunate. Very doubtful we get a draft pick for Dotel now, and I don’t want him back anyway, much less for the money he’s likely to get in arbitration.
Skip Shu made comp b.
dotel doesn’t seem like a hard decision. very good reliever, without the huge price tag. if the worst thing that happens is that he accepts and pitches next year for $3-4m, that seems like a decent risk.
or trade him after he accepts arb. there’s no such thing as a no-trade clause in arbitration.
It would be 3.5. Arb has to be at least 80% of their salary, which would be 2.2 million. However, they have to first buy him out of his option which is $750,000.
I doubt he gets signed because of compl a, so a sign and trade is possible.
Happy AFL opening day to everyone. Oh, they are playing some game over at Busch today as well.
Adams 3 for 5, double, 3 RBI and SB(?)
Jackson 1 for 1, 1RBI
Taveras 1 for 5
Butler 1/3 IP, 4 BB, 4 ER
just to not make it look quite as bad, Butler did go 2/3 IP. Although to make it look worse, 6 batters faced, 24 pitches, 5 strikes, 1/1 GO:FO … so really just 3 strikes out of 22 pitches that did not result in an out.
Wow. Nice day for Adams and Jackson but that is a very ugly line from Butler. He didnt struggle too much with walks in the regular season, right?
Nice to see the guys did well on there 1st day in the Arizona Fall League. They even played against there old teammate Alex Castellanos who was trade to the Dodgers. Castellanos also did very well. Nice to see him there, I always like that kid.
You sure that’s not Nick Castellanos?
playing RF … don’t think DET would let that happen.
Alex, not Nick, according to MLB.com’s AFL page.
No it’s Alex who played in Springfield this year with Adam and Jackson.
Ah, had no idea he was sent to AFL – good to know!
Good to see this: 0 strikeouts for all of our position players. Taveras put the ball in play 5 times with 1 hit to show for it.