bgh has a nice run down on the minor league players currently on the 40-man roster over at VEB. Definitely worth a full read.
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It was an ok read. Seemed a bit strange that the author took a cheap shot at Sam Freeman based on his average FB velocity without taking half a second to point out that he was recovering from TJ surgery this year. Then I wasted my time by trying to read the comments, which spent a while rambling on about random stuff (much of it non-baseball) before finally discussing the topic at hand. I gave up when the comments just degraded into an Adron Chambers hate-fest.
@SLCard- heh, never been to VEB before, have you …and that was not a chambers hate-fest….trust me, that wasn’t close to a VEB hate-fest
Also, freeman’s velocity that was alluded to in the link bgh gave was from a scouting report in 2009, before TJ surgery. Now, you could argue that his velocity was due to an elbow injury that had not been corrected yet, but there is no way to know that for certain.
Gem from that link:
David Freese – I hope he isn’t our plan for 3B next year. I remain firmly off the Freese bandwagon. The power spike from last year continues to look aberrant when I watch him swing in person. His hitting doesn’t excite me and I worry he can’t pick it well enough to be anything more than a +1 player overall.
Oh how things change
Eh. The power was aberrant. The defense is better than what I saw in the minors but I still have some concern about his hitting with that BABIP. Obviously I was off — this isn’t even my most egregious miss — but I don’t feel bad about that quote. Welcome to the world of prospects.
Not very many of our top prospects on the 40 man. I would like to know what Freeman’s velocity was this year. Anybody see him in a game?
I saw Freeman pitch a couple of times in 09 and then several times this year. His velocity may have been down a tick, but not more than a couple of mph (which I admit isn’t insignificant). I can affirm, however, that he was a much better ‘pitcher’ the second go round in Springfield. In a decidedly hitter’s league, he had a nice age 23/24 season (after missing a year). He doesn’t throw hard, I’d say he typically sat 88-91, however, he didn’t throw gas in 09 either. Something that doesn’t show up in his numbers is that there were at least a couple of occasions he took a beating for the team (being left out there or running him out there when he shouldn’t have been available), when there wasn’t another credible option and Spgfld was trying to climb back into the race. Think Jackson against the Brewers. I haven’t looked at the full season numbers, but by my memory he also wasn’t typically spotted against lefties.
It is difficult to express the extent to which the AA bullpen was a wasteland in 2011 until reinforced at the end of the season. For a long stretch, Freeman was the only reliable arm in the pen.
He stands a real chance of surprising some folks in Memphis next year. He won’t ever be a closer/setup guy, but it is entirely realistic to project him as a solid second lefty in a good pen. Might be capable of being the number one guy for a couple of years in his prime. He also gets righties out tolerably well.
Yea, I wasn’t calling you out…I felt the same way you did in 2009…it’s just crazy how things have turned out (FWIW, is still concede Freese could suffer a BABIP crash and become. 10 HR .275 hitter with only mediocre defense)
I think if you took a board poll back in 2009 the median projection for Freese probably would have been something like 15 HR / .280 ave / .320 OBP … which might just be who he is. The thing special about Freeze in my view has been his ability to hit with RISP. In 2011 he went .354 /.400 /.515 with RISP. I don’t know if that is an aberration or not. His #5 comparable on baseball reference is Jon Jay. The jury appears to be still out on Freese despite the post-season heroics.
Baseball America Cards Top 10 is out:
1. P Miller
2. P Martinez
3. OF Taveras
4. 3b Cox
5. 2b Wong
6. P Jenkins
7. P Lynn
8. P Sanchez
9 1b Adams
10 P Swagerty
This isn’t just goofy, although I’m surprised that both Lynn and Sanchez are still considered prospects rather than major leaguers. I’d be inclined to flipflop Wong and Cox. I would also nudge Swagerty down one notch (and, alas, off the top 10, although BP among others will publish deeper lists) to make room for Rosenthal. That one can even have that conversation says that this system is deep-deep-deep when it comes to pitching.
Lynn and Sanchez still qualify as rookies next season, so it’s kinda like Allen Craig still sitting on prospect lists last season.
Also, Cox is currently playing a tougher position than Wong (3rd base v. 2nd base). Although there are questions about Cox’s defense, they’re not Wallace-sized concerns, and Wong is facing some of the same questions. In my personal Top 20, I have him ahead of Wong as well. Agreed on moving Swagerty off the top 10, although I think I have more reservations about him than others, while I’m starting to get on the Rosenthal wagon.
Is Goold still involved with the BA list?
By what standards do Lynn and Sanchez qualify? Certainly not by BBWAA RotY standards; those require no more than 45 days on the active major-league roster in any previous year, excluding September call-ups. Both of those pitchers were on the active roster for more than 45 days in 2011.
BA doesn’t use days on the active roster when determining eligibility. Only IP (50) and at-bats (130).
Thanks, this clarifies much. It would probably be best if BA (and Sickels and BP and lots of other analysts) would use the same criteria that are used in actual Rookie of the Year voting. However, we’re not going to get them to change, so we need to be informed as to what criteria apply in whose eyes.
IC’s elaboration on Goold’s article below makes lots of sense. Interesting that he’d have Tilson at #12 on the non-Lynn, non-Sanchez list. Just how good was he this year? His line at JC was very nice, but based on so few at-bats that it really doesn’t mean much in isolation.
Not sure why BA, etc. should use the rookie qualification criteria – we are talking prospects, not rookies. Using an IP/AB criteria without a service time consideration makes sense for prospects. The idea is to be able to get some impression what a guys big league potential is – sitting on the bench doesn’t tell you much about that.
YMMV, but I would like to see some consistency across all the sites, writers, awards, etc., that look at rookies and prospects. Without that consistency, it’s easy to get into an apples-and-oranges situation where you’re not sure whether differences between lists are because people see players differently, or there are different views of eligibility. Your point about potential of a guy sitting on the bench has some validity, although I would argue that we’ve seen enough of Lynn and Sanchez in the Show to have a pretty good idea what they’ll be like going forward, better than for the other “prospects” on the list. I’d still rather work to the definition “potential rookie = prospect” for the sake of consistency with BBWAA, since Rookie of the Year voting is going to be used to identify hits and misses in the out years, while the lists at BA, BP, etc., fade into the past.
Goold did write the Cardinal list. However I was suprised that he did not promo it at the Post Dispatch as he normally does. His chat about the Cards prospects is this afternoon.
I just noticed that Goold has just posted an article at the PD promoting the list. In his article he says he originally omitted Lynn and Sanchez, but then was reminded that Baseball America considers them still eligible based upon having not yet pitched 50 innings in the majors.
He then said the 4 guys that adding Lynn and Sanchez back into the list pushed back were Rosenthal, Jackson, Carpenter and Tilson, in that order. I take that to mean Rosenthal and Jackson would have been 9 and 10.
His chat at Baseball America is this afternoon at 2pm St. Louis time.
I think he didn’t promo it because last year if I recall he leaked out his list first and then the BA list came out and he had to make apologize for the fact he doesn’t make the final determination.
3rd base is more difficult than 2nd?
Without a shadow of a doubt. Range is infinitely more important than second base because you have to guard the line without letting things through between the third baseman and the shortstop. Add on the fact that you have to have a better arm to make the throw across the diamond. Second base is generally the worst defensive non-1B position in the infield.
That is probably one of the most impressive Cardinal list I can remember.
Couple that with the fact the cards have produced the most ML players since 2005…
Should clarify. Between 05-07,
FWIW I have Wong ahead of Cox though we’re splitting hairs. I like Swagerty a lot and would keep him where he is. The guy that keeps creeping up towards my top ten is Jackson. He keeps showing himself to be an average hitter in every league he plays in. If his defense is as good as advertised it could make him one valuable prospect.
I’ve been an Adams supporter but I guess he’s the guy I might move off to get RJack in there.
The national publications disregard of Rosenthal will only make him stronger. Keep it up, yr naysayers! The Rosentrain is an unstoppable force!
It does seem apparent from watching the play offs and the series that scouts from Philly, Milwaukee and Texas had similar reads on Freese to those above. He surprised everybody in the playoffs and teams will adjust accordingly next year so it will be interesting to see whether his clutch hitting carries over from his magical playoff run.
All I know is that’s a really good top ten and there are a few guys I love that didn’t make it – what a change