Glad to see Matt Carpenter get his due as the best strike zone judgment after last year’s snub. I’d probably put Boone Whiting’s changeup against anyone’s but I’ve had more exposure to his than John Gasts.
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Exciting info. Only issue with the 2015 lineup is not a lot of pop. Future looks great though.
Top ten looks relatively close to what I had minus the guys I excluded (Eduardo Sanchez and Lance Lynn). Posted this over on another sports site.
The St. Louis Cardinals Farm System
The Cardinals farm system has come a long way since the days under Walt Jocketty in which the farm system was nothing more than a trading post for the then GM Walt Jocketty to improve their major league team by using the prospects as trading chips. Under direction of Jeff Lunhow who works closely with John Mozeliak, the Cardinals have transformed their farm system. With the exception of the Matt Holliday deal, and the Mark DeRosa deal to a lesser extent, the Cardinals under Mozeliak’s watch have preferred to deal from the big league club rather than from what was a terrible farm system. In order to acquire Jake Westbrook when the Cardinals needed a starter, Mozeliak traded from an outfielder surplus and sent Ryan Ludwick to San Diego in a 3-team deal with Cleveland. The Cardinals also looked to improve their shortstop position by dealing from their excess relief pitching flipping Blake Hawkswroth to the Dodgers.
Under Jeff Lunhow’s watch, the Cardinals farm system went from what was consistently a bottom five farm system into what should make a serious run as a top ten farm system in baseball. Coinciding with the Cardinals willingness to open up the budget to sign higher priced prospects that fall in the draft because of perceived price tags with these unknown prospects. Prospects such as Shelby Miller, Brett Wallace, and Zack Cox who were perceived to have significant price tags prior to the draft ended up slipping and the Cardinals picked them as they fell to their spot. One must look back at the 2007 MLB Draft where the Cardinals opted on the cost friendly, position of need pick in Pete Kozma over what was considered a top three prospect and arguably the best high school pitching prospect ever in Rick Porcello. While Porcello may not have lived up the bill of the hype, Pete Kozma’s lack of success must sting hard in the Cardinals eyes. In return, the Cardinals drafted Shelby Miller it’s first high school pitcher taken in a long time in the first round. Add in the Cardinals now starting to explore the international market, the last few years have brought in some interesting prospects to their farm.
The Cardinals system has a whole is severely slanted towards pitchers. The lack of any kind of impact position players above Low A is frightening. And without any cost controlled hitting prospects to supplement Albert Pujols, the Cardinals will be forced to deal players or prospects or sign low cost FAs. The Cardinals have a slew of intriguing pitchers throughout their farm system, but more in the Low A to AA levels. The major league club doesn’t appear to have huge holes in the lineup outside of shortstop, no room in the bullpen, and an overflux in the bullpen, the farm system won’t be severely called on to fix big league club issues. The Cardinals main goal will be to re-sign Albert Pujols to a long term contract, and the Cardinals need to decide whether or not Rafael Furcal has priced himself out of the Cardinals market. If so, the Cardinals could turn to Tyler Greene, who after floundering in limited playing time at the big league club thrived against AAA pitching, with a new manager.
I’ll be basing the rankings based on a handful of things.
Arrow Upside – Obviously this is what the farm system is all about. Producing cost controlled players who are as good, if not better than league average players. A player who has a projection of Roy Hallday will naturally be rated higher than a guy who projects as Sidney Ponson.
Arrow Floor – This is something I think is undervalued by a LOT of prognosticators. What good is all that upside if it’s highly unlikely they achieve even close to that? Naturally, this would lead towards players that are higher up on the farm system to be ranked higher than the ones that are on the lower levels.
Arrow ETA – Like Floor, a guy whose ready to help the big league club in the upcoming year has more value than someone the Cardinals need to wait on.
Arrow Projection – This is a culmination of the Upside and Floor, and could easily be grouped in there. This is where I personally think they’re career ends up.
Arrow Results – This one needs to be taken worth a grain of salt, but numbers are important in context. A guy whose K/9 dropped significantly from Low to High A ball is a red flag.
1.) Shelby Miller [RHP; AA-Springfield Cardinals]
I think it goes without saying that Shelby Miller is the poster boy of our farm system, as he’s arguably the second best pitching prospect in baseball behind Matt Moore, which is nothing to be ashamed of. He started off the year at Palm Beach, the Cardinals High A affiliate, and dazzled there with a 13.75 K/9 rate and a 1.82 FIP. Armed with a mid 90′s fastball, a big breaking curve ball, and an underdeveloped change up and slider the Cardinals pushed him up to AA Springfield. He promptly responded by posting a 9.24 K/9 and a 2.73 FIP in a hitter friendly league. He’ll likely start the season off again in Springfield and with Matt Moore potentially making the big league club out of spring training, the best pitching prospect in baseball title could go to Shelby Miller before it’s all siad and done. Shelby made it up to 140 IP this season, so look for something around 160 IP for this upcoming season as they look to push him into the rotation by 2013. He could force the issue by performing well, but a September call up appears far more likely for Shelby.
2.) Carlos Martinez [RHP; High A-Palm Beach]
Much was made about the Cardinals spending 1.5 million dollars on a kid whom the Red Sox had previously signed for less than a million dollar. After MLB tried to figure out who he was and exactly how old he was, they were unable to come to the conclusion and the Red Sox voided the deal. The Red Sox losses was the Cardinals benefits as Martinez added more velocity, and more control with his pitches. After finally getting approved by MLB, he was finally given a Visa and was thrown right into our Low A affiliate, Quad Cities and promptly responded with a 11.29 K/9, a 3.57 K/BB, and a 2.35 FIP. After only eight starts stateside, he was promoted to Palm Beach. He struggled with control walking nearly 6 batters per nine innings when his ERA more than doubled. As for him as a prospect, the smallish frame is a bit worriesome as he’s about 6’0″, 165 lbs soaking wet. His fastball is electric and he displays good control which sits comfortably in the mid nineties, but can get it up into the 97-99 range. Several scouts had it ranked as a true 80 pitch. There are mixed reviews on his offspeed stuff, namely his curveball which is more advanced at this point and his mid 80′s change up. Based on pure stuff, he’s a better prospect than Shelby Miller but because of his smallish frame and his rawness he’s not as highly ranked as Shelby. If everything goes well, the Cardinals could legitimately have to home grown aces leading the Cardinals pitching staff in a few years to go along with Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia. Worst case scenario is that he ends up as a lights out closer because of his frame. An ETA of 2014 seems about right as he appears to be about a year behind Shelby.
3.) Tyrell Jenkins [RHP; Rookie-Johnson City]
Tyrell Jenkins took HUGE steps forward this year. While his numbers on the surface appears unimpressive, but his 4.23 K/BB and a ratio of nearly 2 in GO/AO shows that Jenkins is efficient. Jenkins came out of high school as a three sport athlete, with plenty of questions about where his future lied. The Cardinals tabbed him in the supplemental round the same year as Shelby Miller and he’s blossomed. At 6’4″ and 180 lbs, Tyrell has plenty of room to grow into his body and add a couple more ticks on his pitches. His secondary pitch is a 1-7 curveball that seems to tail away rather than sink, which makes the GO/AO ratio even more impressive. He shows a rudimentary change up which will likely be further developed as he progresses. He’s got a slider, but it’s largely undeveloped at this time. The Cardinals have already publicly declared they’ll be taking things extremely with slow with the athletic Jenkins, putting him on a strict pitch count that resulted in only 56 IP this season. If everything goes right, the Cardinals look to have a good #2 or higher end #3 starter in the big leagues. His frame, success despite being young for his level, and feel for pitches gives the Cardinals yet another exciting arm.
4.) Oscar Taveras [OF; Low A-Quad Cities]
Oscar Taveras who only turned 19 during the middle of the season had a fantastic year despite being bothered by a lingering hamstring injury. Putting up a line of .386/.444/.584 in a league where he, like Tyrell Jenkins, was actually young for is quite impressive. Had it not been for not enough AB to qualify, Taveras would have easily won the batting title for his league. Right now, Taveras is right now more projection than anything. With his success in a less than filled frame, which appears more wiry at this point, the Cardinals could have another legitimate five tool outfielder prospect since Colby Rasmus graduated to the big leagues. He’s got the most upside of any our positional players in our farm system. At such a young age, the Cardinals challenged him and sent him to the AFL where he put up a respectable line .292/.297/.403 despite playing guys who were more than two years older than him. In fact, only Bryce Harper is the only player younger than Taveras in the AFL. The Cardinals could see him in the OF by the start of the 2015 season.
5.) Zack Cox [3B; AA-Springfield]
For a guy that was ranked as my second prospect coming into the season, this is more a result of the rest of the farm system than what Zack did. He started out slowly after his promotion to AA, but finished with a line of .293/.355/.432. The knock on Cox coming out of college was that he didn’t have huge upside and there were reports of a rather large price tag. Also, a lot of people were worried that he wouldn’t hit for enough power to stick at third and some had projected him to move to second in the farm. The Cardinals have declared multiple times that they believe him to be a third baseman, and thus far Cox has rewarded their faith. He’s likely to push the issue assuming he continues to succeed at AA by forcing the Cardinals hand with Matt Carpenter. His short, compact swing should give him the ability to hit around .280 in the big leagues but the power is what people differ about. Some feel he’ll top out around 10 HR per year in his prime while others feel he could top out around 20. How much power he ultimately develops will determine just how good of a player he can be.
6.) Kolten Wong [2B; Low A-Quad Cities]
Count me among the people considerably peeved the Cardinals took the cheap route over what was deemed an inferior talent. Had I been in charge, I would have used the Cardinals pick to take high school lefty Daniel Norris. Josh Bell would have also gotten serious consideration had it not been for his lofty price tag. To say that Wong has shed the wasted pick label might be a bit premature, but he hit extremely well in his first season in pro ball putting up a line of .335/.401/.510 while playing solid defense for Quad Cities. The Cardinals lack the depth, or even talent in the upper minors within their middle infield so adding Wong was clearly a positional fill at the time. He’s performed quite well, but given he was pretty MLB-ready coming out of college a quick rise through the system is to be expected. I expect him starting for Palm Beach for the upcoming season before eventually forcing himself into Springfield before the end of next year. I think an ETA of 2013 is very reasonable to expect from him. Very comparable to Fernando Vina from several years ago IMO.
7.) Jordan Swagerty [RHP; AA Springfield]
Coming out of Arizona State, he was the more unheralded prospect between he and Seth Blair as Swagerty figured to profile more as a closer where as Blair figured to be a middle of the rotation stalwart for some team. Ironically, both ended up getting drafted by the Cardinals and both took opposite career paths. The Cardinals started him out in Quad Cities as a starter and after only five starts there, he was promoted to Palm Beach. Due to the limit on IP for him, after just seven starts he was converted to the bullpen where he had more 15 more appearances. With a sub 2.00 ERA in both Quad Cities and Palm Beach, he was promoted to their AA affiliate, Springfield, in mid-August. Armed with a fastball that sits in the low 90′s with good sinking action, he possesses a slurvy slider and a change up that projects to plus. With his aggressive demeanor on the mound as well as his funky deliver which doesn’t effect his command, his future appears to be heading to the bullpen potentially as a closer for the big league team.
8.) Trevor Rosenthal [LHP; Low A-Quad Cities]
Of all of the Cardinals top ten prospects, Trevor Rosenthal is probably the least heralded. His numbers on the surface don’t seem overly impressive with an ERA of over 4 and an opponents batting average of .247. But with his 3.41 K/BB and a 1.54 GO/AO ratio give Cardinals fans reason to have some optimism. He has a fastball that sits in the 93-95 range this season getting it up as high as 97 this year. Another pitch he has good feel for is his slider which sits in the mid 80s. The Cardinals are stressing to develop a change up to his arsenal. If he could turn that into a show me pitch to keep hitters off balance, he could be in the Cardinals rotation future. Quad Cities manager Johnny Rodriguez even went so far as to say that Trevor was better than Shelby Miller when they both started at Quad Cities. Jim Callis over at BA in his Ask BA article here said that if everything clicks, he could be penciled in a #2 starter in the big leagues. That’s high praises for someone who was thought to be nothing more than a LOOGY just a year ago. With all these high praises, a good year in this upcoming season and he is going to put his name on the prospect mat.
9.) Ryan Jackson [SS; AA-Springfield]
Like I mentioned with Wong, the lack of talent in the MIF positions in the Cardinals system is quite frightening but Jackson is probably the best, and possibly only legitimate SS prospect we have in the farm system. Coming out of the University of Miami (FL), he was billed as a plus-plus defensive shortstop with a plus arm that would make all the throws. The reason he fell to the fifth round in the 2009 draft was the significant questions about whether or not he’d hit well enough to progress through the system. He struggled in his first year in the system, but his sophomore campaign split between Quad Cities and Palm Beach yielded a .278/.359/.362 line which was more than respectable given his defensive prowess. He was pushed to AA this year and responded with a line of .278/.334/.415 in almost 600 PA at AA Springfield. He’ll likely repeat Springfield to make the numbers stick, but assuming he can continue to improve offensively, you are probably ready to pencil him in as the Cardinals starting shortstop in 2013 and contend for a Gold Glove pretty soon thereafter.
10.) Matt Adams [1B; AA-Springfield]
Consider me one of those ones who still don’t know what to make of Adams. Since being drafted by the Cardinals, he has never sported a line below .300/.350/.520 despite having a walk rate at lower than 8.0% at every league he’s played in. Some of that can be contributed to how well he’s hitting the ball, but part of that has to bring into some questions as to how well he will walk when he’s struggling to the put the bat on the ball. Much like Brett Wallace before him, he’s sort of a “bad body” first baseman whose actually surprisingly light on his feet. While no one will compare him to Albert Pujols defensively, he should be at least league average. Questions about his ability to take a walk and his less than ideal body have raised some red flags for some people, but his ability to hit can not be ignored. The kids going to end up forcing Mark Hamilton back down to AA unless one of them switch to the OF. Some think that Adams could be the Cardinals starting first baseman for the 2012 season IF the Cardinals don’t re-sign Pujols, but 2013 seems far more likely for an ETA for Adams.
Where is this writeup from?
It’s mine. I originally posted it at Football’s Future.
If you don’t mind me asking, where did you repost this at?
I haven’t yet, I just like Top 10′s that are so well written.
What’s your website? Or can I cut and paste this on another site also?
As long as you don’t say it’s yours (give me credit *wink*) I’ve got no problem for you copying and pasting it.
Nice write-up. One minor correction: Jenkins was drafted last year, not 2009 (Miller’s year). Why do you think Shelby and Ryan Jackson will be back at Springfield? I’d be surprised if both of them don’t start at Memphis.
Whoops two typos. Not sure why I thought he, Seth Blair, and Shelby Miller were all drafted in the same year.
First off, I don’t foresee Tyler Greene making the team out of ST. I’ve never really been a fan of his, and I think we end up signing a SS to start like Rafael Furcal or Jack Wilson instead of just heading into the season hoping Greene can hit at the big league level. I think there will be enough money given to one to force them into SS. And I think Schumaker will get the nod at 2B.
As for Jackson, while he hit well for being a below-average hitters I find it far more likely that the Cardinals are conservative with him and have him repeat AA with a chance to move up to AAA if he continues to hit decently. Add on the Cardinals don’t really have any SS prospects at Palm Beach needing to be challenged.
Of the two, I expect Tyler Greene to be the Memphis starting SS with Pete Kozma over at second or vice versa while Ryan Jackson holds down the SS position at Springfield with a mid-season promotion of Kolten Wong.
Not sure if this is another typo or not or if you meant Blair and Jenkins were drafted in the same draft. Miller was 09, Cox, Blair, Jenkins and Swagerty were 2010. Greene for sure makes the team next year even if its as a utility infielder. Mo has emphasised a philosophical change from hiring vets to fill in roster spots to using our own guys that we developed. Mo wanted him to get a look when we went on our run this year. Right after naming Matheny both Mo and Matheny started to mention Greene specifically as a possible impact player next year. Maybe they were trying to talk him up for a trade. Matheny said Greene is overall the best athlete we have in our whole organization.
He was a second round pick out of HS and didn’t sign. He was our 1st round pick. Some players develop at different stages.
Cardinals won’t be conservate with Jackson, he did in AA and raked in the AFL. The Cardinals won’t be too concerned about his bat as they may just want his D in 2013. No way he starts in Springfield. Miller has proved everything he needs to at AA. He will start next year at AAA. With a possible bullpen, usage late in the year ala Dan Haren.
It was a typo. For some odd reason I was thinking Seth Blair and Tyrell Jenkins were drafted in the same year as Shelby Miller. Not sure what was I thinking when I typed this up.
Best overall athlete and being a MLB player are two completely different things. Look at Daryl Jones. BA voted him two years running best athlete in our farm system, and what’s become of that? He’s done diddly squat. Athleticism doesn’t directly translate to success. And as much as I’d love to believe M&M (Moezliak & Matheny), you really can’t read much into it, since it could very well be a ploy to get Rafael Furcal to lower his demands.
But look at his numbers when he was sent back to AAA this year, his numbers were head and shoulders above his career numbers. And that was directly influenced by his ridiculous .407 BABIP. So that impressive line of .323/.422/.579 that he is sporting isn’t even remotely sustainable at the AAA level, let alone at the big league level. So unless the light significantly clicked, and the peripherals would indicate otherwise, he’s not the answer we’re looking for.
Not going to get into another babip argument but a guy who is hitting .323 is obviously going to have a BABIP higher than that. Plus when your hitting rockets in the gaps and through the 5 hole the BABIP is going to be higher. Hard contact and fast runners make BABIP go up. I don’t think you can say its just lip service. Mo made a huge effort to let it be known that he wanted to have Greene have a shot last year when he though we were out of it. TLR had none of it and we went on a run. Just because we went on a run doesnt mean that Mo doesn’t still want to see what he has in Greene. Mo said he’s going to be working on improving speed and defense. Greene is the fastest player on the team by far and knows how to steal a base. His lifetime pro percentage for steals is a ridicoulous 90 somethign percent. He has the wheels and he has the feel. He’s a better defender than Theriot is and probably a more productive hitter. He’s a better hitterr than Furcal with more speed and the same range and arm. Why would you not give him a try? Especially when all indications are that Mo and Matheny want to give hima try. It’s going to happen I almost guarantee it. You must not have remembered how bad at SS overall we have been for years, why do we think that having a moderate hitting fast, moderate defending SS thats cost controlled would be something that Mo won’t do now? You may be right but I doubt it all arrows point to Greene finally getting a real shot this year.
Exactly my point. Him hitting anywhere near as well as he hit this past season in AAA is completely unsustainable. So you’re expecting his numbers to come down quite a bit just in AAA, but then you’ve got to project him to fall even further. The fact that he sported a .323 batting average yet had a K rate of 24.8% is a huge red flag. For a guy who strikes out nearly a fourth of his at-bats, he is going to struggle to make contact. That or he doesn’t see the ball very well coming out of the pitchers hand. And his ISO balooned. All of this a product of him being in his fourth year in AAA.
Being a better defender than Ryan Theriot isn’t saying much. Theriot was a butcher at shortstop. Theriot is a positive UZR/150 at second base, while negative at shortstop. I’m all for giving him a try, but I’m not putting all my eggs in a basket in a guy whose significantly flawed. I’d much rather have Brendan Ryan at short than Ryan Theriot.
Once again, if they were willing to have Theriot at SS they will be w illing to have Greene. Greene seems like that type that has nerve problems. WIthout TLR there that could be resolved. Your acting like we have to have some great SS. We don’t and haven’t for a very long time. It makes no sense that the new manager and GM talk up Greene but don’t have him make the club? Greene brings speed and athleticism to the team that it hasn’t had in awhile. Also remember that K’s really aren’t that important for a leadoff hitter or someone down in the lineup so his K percentage isn’t relevant at all. This is where the number betray people. Sure they number will come down but those who say him say it looked like something clicked with him and he was hitting rockets. Wasn’t he 2 for 2 in September including that double/almost home run again Philly? The fact is he has the most natural talent to play SS on the team right now. Dynamics lead me to believe that he could be finally living up to his talent. I’m not saying he’s going to be great just that he brings enough to the table to make him a better option that others you are bringing up especially being cost controlled. I think they may sign a Orlando Caberera to back up Greene or be around in case he flames out but why spend money we need for Pujols for a 1 year stopgap at SS, when you haven’t even given your 1st round pick from 05 a real chance to make the team. Remember…
09- Greene didn’t get a legit chance because the job was given to Khail Greene, Ryan took over and ran with it when he got the shot.
10- Brendan Ryans job going into Spring Training despite having hand surgery 3 weeks before Spring Training.
11- Theriot named starter as soon as the trade was made.
At what point in this time period has Greene had any chance at playing enough to prove himself ready to be a starting SS? He’ hasn’t got that chance yet.
It’s apples and oranges when you’re trying to compare putting up with Ryan Theriot and Tyler Greene. The Cardinals really had Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday in their line up and several question marks mixed in. Would Lance Berkman hit closer to his career numbers or would he repeat the results like he was in New York? Would David Freese manage to stay healthy enough to see if he was the Cardinals future third baseman? Would the light finally click for Colby Rasmus and become the middle of the order hitter? There was a laundry list of question marks with the lineup, and Mozeliak and La Russa were willing to overlook Theriot’s defensive deficiencies at short in order to get his bat in the line up. Not to mention the Cardinals were desperate for a lead off hitter since Skip Schumaker regressed considerably from his ’08 campaign. The Cardinals were forced to put Theriot at shortstop because they didn’t have an alternative. When did the Cardinals stop overlooking Theriot’s defensive issues? Right about the time that he stopped hitting, and what did the Cardinals do in response? They traded for Rafael Furcal.
If you’re planning on putting Tyler Greene at the lead off or #2 spot in the line up, you sure as hell better want him to get on base for Pujols and Holliday to hit. And let’s not act like there isn’t a correlation between K rate and on-base percentage. In seasons (both minors and majors) where his BABIP wasn’t above .320, he only once had an OBP above .325 and that was his 2010 stint with the big league club. There is a significant connection between his BABIP and his OBP. Sure, if his K rate isn’t that good and his OBP is dropping because of it, what good is his bat in the line up? It’s not like he’s got tons of power, and he doesn’t get on base enough to make his speed a major threat.
He’s got talent, but he’s nowhere near tapping that talent. For a guy who scouts were raving about his defense coming out of Georgia Tech, he seems to have found a LOT of detractors that say his defense has regressed. So it’s not like Brendan Ryan, where playing gold glove defense gets management to overlook offensive deficiencies. Greene falls neither on the Ryan nor Theriot end of the spectrum. The Cardinals in recent years have put a premium on defense at shortstop, which is why the Ryan Theriot pick up was so baffling at the time. Why would the Cardinals go with another big swinging, average-to-bad defense shortstop?
And assuming the rumors about Furcal are true and that he’s seeking a three year deal around 6-8 million per year are true, I’d be surprised if the Cardinals didn’t turn to Jack Wilson. He should come at a pretty significant discount from his last contract since he didn’t hit very well, and he’s long been linked to the Cardinals. Even when the Cardinals need to save some money to resign Pujols. And that’s not even considering the fact that Pujols’ market appears to be drying up more quickly than anticipated.
Once again we have to look at what we have had and whats available?
What was the OBP for the leadoff men combined this year? Not much that is for sure. What type of offense does Jack Wilson give you if we bring him in? Can he lead off? If he doesn’t who is the leadoff hitter? DD? Jay?
From what I’ve seen Greene plays instinctual. When he’s in his head and consciously thinking about what he’s doing thats when he screws up. When he has to go in the whole and its just instinct that is when he shines. Notice most of his errors are on easy balls now the harder ones.
So overall who works better with everything we need than Greene? I’m sure Wilsons offense and profile for where he hits in the order is significantly worse than Greenes.
Wilson hasn’t had an OBP over .312 since 2008.
I’m not trying to argue Greene is going to be a superstar. Just that he should have first dibs on the SS position this year. And someone like Caberera should be brought in as backup or in case Greene doesn’t work out. Roger Cedano is available….lol
Again, it’s about going into the season with your back not against the wall. If Tyler Greene absolutely flops, what are we left with? Daniel Descalso would be our main backup, and he’s got an ugly split.
Looking at the top seven offenses sans St. Louis, this was their lead off hitters OBP.
Jacoby Ellsbury [Red Sox] – .381
Derek Jeters [Yankees] – .337
Ian Kinsler [Rangers] – .356
Austin Jackson [Tigers] – .314
Yunel Escobar [Blue Jays] – .366
Drew Stubbs [Reds] – .329
So that’s an average of .347 as an OBP. Greene’s career OBP is significantly lower than that average.
The difference between Wilson and Greene is that we know that Wilson is very good defensively. Not so much with Greene. You’re trading a slightly better hitter for a bit worse glove. I’ll take the better glove every day of the week and twice on Sunday’s. We don’t need a shortstop we can’t trust defensively. We need someone whose going to play good defense.
But whose willing to say Cabrera is willing to take a backup spot? Last year, he moved to second base a position he never played before just to make sure he got a place play. No guarantees he’d play here. And if Greene falters, then we’re pretty much screwed.
Again, if not Greene who….and then the question is who is our leadoff hitter? Greene being on the big club isn’t going to effect who the leadoff hitter is as the other SS we get won’t be the leadoff hitter. So it’s Greene or DD or Jay. We can throw out that aspect of the discussion. Greene has shown the talent to be good on D, his mistakes are obviously mental. Most of those occur when your pressing. Matheny is supposed to be good at relieving this. So in your comp your taking the stead gloved/no bat Wilson over the potentially good glove/impact bat of Greene.
I”m willing to bet if Greene played 1 straight month his O would be more than slightly better than Wilson. What is your solution pay up for an old SS and not ever give Greene the chance to shine? I don’t get what your getting at with this whole back and forth. What SS is available?
I still think it’s highly likely that we see Skip Schumaker back in his his lead off role. With the exception of Sept/Oct, his last two months he sported an OBP above .372. Probably not sustainable, but if he can get it back around the .360 he was posting between the 2007 and 2009 seasons, the Cardinals will be delighted.
The difference between you and me is that you want to take the most positive outlook, while I tend to take the more pessimistic viewpoint since reports out the farm have been less than stellar with regards to his defense. And his numbers would have to be hitting at an unsustainable level in that one month to be significantly better than say Jack Wilson. You make it sound like when he came into the draft, he was scouted and said he had a plus bat.
My alternative would be to sign Jack Wilson, who really shouldn’t cost that much, and plug him in at shortstop. If he struggles considerably, or Tyler Greene hits extremely well you move Greene into the line up at second base and move Skip Schumaker to the bench or center if Jon Jay is struggling. You’re handcuffing yourself if you going into the season with Greene as your only legitimate shortstop on your roster. Not to mention, whoever is the 2012 shortstop is only keeping the seat warm for Ryan Jackson to take over in 2013.
I disagree with your assesment that Greene should just be handed the job earlier on. He did nothing to earn it. If the cards were rebuilding, you take the shot. But with a contending team, you simply just don’t hand over the reigns.
As far as Greene for 2012, I agree its time to give greene a shot. With the Pujols contract, you have to lean up the budget at other positions.
With that said, i don’t fully trust greene and hope they sign a capable back up.
“Best overall athlete and being a MLB player are two completely different things. Look at Daryl Jones.”
The major difference bring, of course, that Greene actually has performed to his athletic ability in Memphis while Jones was a disappointment year in, year. That’s not “diddly squat.”
Exactly the point of my illustration earlier. You can be a phenomenal athlete, but if your head isn’t on straight you won’t find success.
You have to remember that was Greene’s fourth trip through Memphis. Combined with his ridiculous BABIP, and his numbers become that less impressive.
Yes, his fourth trip (although his first was only 30 games at the end of the season, which was mostly spent in Springfield). There’s no reason why he should be back in Memphis again, especially as a 28-year-old and an actual prospect behind him. He’ll either be in St. Louis or traded/released.
Also, your point is invalid. The talk about Jones’ athleticism related to his upside as a toolsy prospect and how that would help him reach long-off potential, similar to the way they talk about Tyler Jenkins. The talk about Greene’s athleticism relates to the player he is right now. From Matheny:
“When I think about Tyler, I’ve made it clear, he’s one of the best athletes in this organization, if not the best, that’s everything included. He brings aspects to the game and to the table that don’t exist, you could see the difference in the post-season when you put him on base. You have some freedom to do some exciting things and rattle the defense, a lot like what happened when Ian Kinsler got on base, the defense plays at a different level, and so did the pace of the play with the pitcher and there’s concentration that has to happen with the pitcher. Those kind of things happen when you put a guy like Tyler Greene on base. Does he have the ability to do it? He does. He has the ability to get in there and play. I believe Tyler is a much, much better player than what the Cardinals fans have seen. ”
Matheny obviously has plans for Greene, especially as a threat on the basepaths (11 bases stolen when reaching base 30 times), and he’s going to give Greene a huge opportunity in Spring Training. If Greene doesn’t play well enough to justify a spot on the active 25-man roster, he’s not going to be in Memphis; he’ll be gone.
I think Tyler Greene is out of options so even if he isn’t the starter he should be with the big club.
I’ve been wondering who will start at SS for Springfield. I am wondering if they put Greg Garcia back at SS as a prelude to reuniting him with Kolten at mid-season. That’s my guess anyway!
Greene’s out of options, and he has the support of the general manager (who has been saying he’d be okay to have Greene as the *starting* SS). Both factors will keep him in St. Louis, even if it’s just to warm the bench. Also, even if they bring back Schumaker (which isn’t entirely certain), it wouldn’t be as a 2nd baseman–it’ll be as a utility player who plays mostly outfield. Keep in mind that the SS market is extremely thin. Greene actually may be a better option than most free agents who are available, especially at the prices they’re signing for.
While there’s a remote possibility Jackson may start the season at Springfield, he would not going to stay very long. Jackson spent all of last season in Springfield, getting 615 AB in 135 games, then spent the fall having fun in the AFL. If they want to see if Jackson’s offense is for real, it needs to be in Memphis and not in Springfield, which is a hitter’s park in a hitter’s league. Jackson turns 24 in May, and I don’t see any reason or need to keep him down in AA.
As far as who would be in Springfield, it’ll probably be Greg Garcia.
Memphis isn’t anything more than a slight tune up for the big leagues. That’s where you put the finishing touches on your prospect, not check to see if they’re for real or not.
We need to see if Jacksons back is real or not. We don’t know that from Springfield. He started out ridiclously hot last year then got really bad for 1 month and got very hot again. It’s a hitters heaven. Playing at Memphis is less about checking out our prospects but more about getting the players used to veteran pitching that they may see in the MLB. There is no reason Jackson should be at Springfield again. He’s proven everythign he needs to prove there.
Proven everything? You pointed out the problem right there, he’s a streaky hitter and why not see if he can consistently hit in a hitters’ league before we start promoting. I’m not saying keep him there all year, just start him out there and if he hits well then consider promoting him to AAA. Then again, I’m pretty conservative with promotions.
No, it is not. Most recent Cardinal prospects, including Allen Craig, Jon Jay, and Daniel Descalso, spent more than a season in Memphis. Jackson is the same level of prospect, and has nothing left to prove in AA, especially since he’ll be overage for AA if you leave him there. If he is to continue his development, he needs to be challenged.
The only reason Craig and Jay spent so much time at the AAA level was because the Cardinals were so talented at the big league level at the OF position. In fact, Mozeliak had been on the record as saying they’d rather have their young OF at AAA for the chance to start everyday rather than sitting on the bench in St. Louis. That right there tells you that they view AAA as a tune up for their prospects. Not to mention, they call the jump from High A to AA the hardest jump in baseball and that’s for a reason. It’s the last real big change before the big league. Look at other farm system’s top prospects and see how much time they spent at AAA. The Angels’ Mike Trout completely skipped AAA, the Rays Matt Moore had nine starts before being promoted, and the Royals’ Eric Hosmer spent 26 games at AAA. The other teams seem to treat AAA like a tune up. The only time you see players spend a significant portion of time at AAA is when their prospect is dominating AA hitting, and they’re currently blocked at the big league level (see Julio Teheran with the Braves).
1. Comparing what the Cardinals do with their prospects to what other organizations do has no relation to this dicussion. The Cardinals operate the way the Cardinals decide to operate, which is what we are discussing. There is no rulebook that every team must follow in handing their prospects (and several teams do handle them differently).
2. Mike Trout and Eric Hosmer are among the best prospects in the league. Ryan Jackson is *not* on the same level. Trout was rated No. 2 overall by BA before the 2011 season; Hosmer was rated No. 8. I’m not sure how you can justify comparing the developmental curve of two of the nation’s elite prospects to a guy like Jackson (or any of the other three I brought up).
3. I notice you didn’t mention Descalso, middle infielder, even though I did.
4. Here was the Cardinals’ outfield during those prospects time in Memphis:
Jay–full Memphis season in 2009 (500+ AB in 136 games as a 24 year old)–Top 4 Outfielders–Ankiel, Rasmus, Ludwick, and Duncan (this was the year they traded for Matt Holliday at the deadline)
Craig–full Memphis season in 2009 (500+ AB in 126 games as a 24 year old, turning 25 in July)–see Jay
Descalso–full Memphis season in 2010 (500+ PA in 116 games as a 23 year old)–Skip Schumaker was converted as the 2nd baseman because they had nobody else on the roster. Bench infielders who saw the majority of time at 2B that seasons (Descalso’s natural position and the one he was playing in Memphis were Felipe Lopez and Aaron Miles. He had an 11 game call up at the end of the season.
Those three prospects spent all or nearly all of their seasons in Memphis not because there was somebody ahead of them but because they had things to work on as part as their development as a viable prospect as a future contributor on the major league roster. Jackson is 23, turning 24 during the season, similar in age and development. Holding him in Springfield for another season is nonsensical–it would hold him in a lower league as an overager and stunt his growth at the plate.
The free agent SS market isn’t thin….its just expensive. Reyes, Rollins, and Furcal are a nice 1-2-3. Plenty of glove first guys like Cabrera, Gonzalez, Izturis, Cedeno, Santiago, and Wilson. Stephen Drew, Marco Scutaro, Jed Lowrie, Emil Bonifacio, Jason Donald, Jason Bartlett, Reid Brignac, and Ian Desmond could be a possible trade candidates.
Of all the names mentioned above, Furcal, Drew, Lowrie, Bonifacio, and Donald are the only ones I’d have interest in. Donald is blocked in Cleveland by Cabrera and Kipnis for the forseeable future.
Good assesment.
However, I disagree about the wong pick.
Last year, the cards only had 1 pick in the top 75. That is the time to stay conservative. A wasted pick is a when you gamble in a draft where you only get 1 chance. So a HS arm is not the way to go. What hurts teams is getting nothing out of drafts and a high risk with your only shot will probably end up that way.
With that said, I think the baseball community did not do their homework on wong. The Cards apparantly did and it payed off. Wong did play in Hawaii, so he probably was scouted as much. I think the experts got caught photo/paper scouting. Seeing him listed 5’9 and 190 and looking at photos, they just assumed he wasn’t as athletic. That was the nock on him. Lots of nocks on his athleticism…Then he comes out and starts doing back flips…Kind of proves thoses assesments wrong.
Great write up and well thought out. Really appreciate the effort.
The problem, mine especially, was the lack of upside. There is a limited upside second baseman, and those don’t exactly possesses a ton of value. Not to mention, it looks like a clear need pick since our MIF depth in our farm system minus Ryan Jackson is pretty embarrassing. Daniel Norris was the guy I wanted leading up to the draft, but rumors of huge demand turned me off a bunch. 2.5 million that he ended up signing for was quite a bit less than I heard he was asking for. Taylor Guerrieri (who signed for significantly less than what was reported) and Henry Owens were two others arms I would have liked the Cardinals to pick as well. I’ll admit I underrated Wong, as a light hitting second baseman wasn’t exactly high on my list.
True. But again, “upside” is not the main focus when you have a late round draft pick, and its your only pick in the first 75. But instead, focus on the floor.
Now while wong didn’t have a high upside, it was generally agreed that at the least, he would make the major leagues. If you only have 1 pick in 75 and you produce a major leaguer with it, that is actually a great draft.
Each draft is different. When the cards had 3 first rounders, they rolled the dice. It would have been stupid to draft 3 wongs.
I noticed that the 3 guys you mentioned were all HS players. HS players have a significantly higher failure rate. The fact is, the odds are actually against any of those guys even making to the majors.
If you roll the dice all the time, you might end up with highly rated systems, but you will actually have poor contribution from your farm system. You actually need a balance to be productive. I should point out that the best players that have recently come through the system were not high reward players.
So with only when pick, at the least try and develop a major leaguer.
I agree I wanted those same guys. I’m happy with the Wong pick now as it seems like I underrated his upside. If he hits .300 with 30 doubles and plays good D at 2nd I’ll be happy.
I’ll be thrilled if he does that well.
He wasn’t exactly the low upside stiff that everyone thought, he has the 2nd best season of any Division 1 baseball player that year, he is considered a pretty decent fielder, has some speed probably good for 15 steals a year and hits for average and gets on base. He also showed some good power hitting for a .175 ISO. I think a lot of people jumped the gun and he will be a valuble major league player. But its still early and anyone can bust so anyones opinion could turn out right or wrong.
Man I love our system right now
@karmaloop—rosenthal as a LOOGY? I’m confused
Typo, I meant middle relief. For some reason I had John Gast in mind when I was writing up Rosenthal’s piece.
Do you have a website?
Nope. I’ve thought about one, but the cost to host a website is a luxury I don’t want to pay for.
Rosenthal is a right hander….. right? Like Fick. Does that get my average back to 500? Too bad they are not both lefties.
Anyone have 11-30?
In no particular order….
Matt Carpenter
Adam Reifer
John Gast
Tommy Pham
Adron Chambers
Seth Blair
Charles Tilson
Maikel Cleto
Joe Kelly
Sam Freeman
Boone Whiting
Keith Butler
Roberto de la Cruz
Hector Hernandez
CJ McElroy
Mark Hamilton
Brandon Dickson
Anthony Garcia
Anthony Ferrara
Jon Rodriguez
I think thats a pretty strong mix of talent in our top 30.
Call me crazy—-we have a good farm system going right now
The Cardinals have officially offered arbitration to both Albert Pujols and Edwin Jackson. You would have to assume both are locks to decline.
Funny thing is, I’m not so sure Pujols will decline! The combination of his less than fully Pujolsian 2011 season on the one hand, and the messy business with his agent on the other, may create a situation where it’s in his interest to accept, find another agent, and either work things out with the Cardinals before going to arb, or try for a bigger 2012 in the hopes of scoring a bigger deal after next season.
What does Pujols stand to gain by accepting arbitration? He won’t set the record for most money in a single year and he risks getting injured or having another below-average season by his standards and risk missing his big pay day.
One thing he stands to gain is restored negotiating power on the part of his agent, which has been badly eroded in the last few days. It’s hard to tell from outside the business how much of a problem that is, but it could be significant. As for the risk, yeah, it’s a tradeoff.
To be sure, I don’t expect him to accept. However, it’s not necessarily the no-brainer that it looked like a couple of weeks ago.
His agent’s negotiating power is derived from Albert. I don’t see that Albert (or Lozano) have lost anything or had their leverage lowered in any way because of the recent article.
Albert’s problem is age and lack of big market suitors, not his agent’s hiring of escorts for parties.
I have a strong hunch that he will decline arbitration
Never, in my 26 years, have I been more sure of something than this: Albert pujols will decline arbitration
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20004669
Ryan Jackson interview and some clips of him hitting/fielding in the AFL…
Ya, he will decline arbitration…thats a no brainer.
A) A 1 year deal makes him older for his next contract, and will decline his value…
B) No way he gets 23 million off of his current year. Remember, Arbitration hearings only take in statistics, not status of player….so, home run record and it being Albert would not effect his Arb…He would get like 18-22 million with his season.
So, it would be a terrible decision on his agent, to do that…Lozano may be a sleaze, but he’s not that dumb
Actually, I could see Pujols approach Mo and say “I’m thinking of firing my agent. This would throw all the negotiations back while I am breaking in a new agent, and would not be beneficial for you, or for me. Tell me if you would consider a one year contract in the ballpark of $26-30M. If so, we might have a deal.” I think Mo would jump at that. I also think it would go a long way to healing any of the bad blood in the negotiations.
I’m not saying that’s likely to happen, but stranger things have happened…. like ARod’s circumventing Boras in his last contract.
OMG….Let it be known, that there is ZERO chance of Albert Pujols doing a 1 year deal. Stranger things have NOT happened.
To me the big problem with Pujols contract demands is that he wants too many years for his age. He wants to be paid like he is going to be the best player in baseball until he is 40. If he just wanted a huge salary but less years. He would already be signed by now IMO. So signing a one year contract and getting another year older is not an option.
A couple of thoughts on the overall conversation on this thread:
1) Our farm system looks great. I understand why the prevailing sentiment (here and elsewhere) after the draft was that we made a mistake with Wong. At this point, though, it’s very hard not to be excited about him. It’s difficult enough for scouts to predict a player’s career path. For fans it’s almost impossible. Maybe the Wong pick was bad but he’ll still end up having a great career. Sometimes you get lucky. In a weaker system he could be the number one prospect.
2) Tyler Greene might be the most polarizing player in the Cardinals org. Everyone is going to form their own opinions on him, but I think a few things are worth pointing out: a) His last 3 stops at Memphis he’s put up wOBAs of .390, .357 and .442. To me that screams “knocking on the door”. b) Regardless of your opinion on his talent, I think one thing is objectively true: he has NOT been given a fair chance yet. He’s yet to top 122 PAs in a season. c) Bill James pegs him for a respectable .250/.321/.391 line next year with a .316 wOBA. That wOBA would be 60 points higher than Brendan Ryan in 2010 and 24 points higher than Theriot in 2011. d) At any rate, we can debate about whether or not he’d make a good everyday SS but it’s silly to talk about him taking time away from Ryan Jackson at AAA. Given what Matheny and Mo have said, he WILL be on the big league roster in 2012. What sense would it make for the new manager to go out of his way to talk him up, then leave him at AAA for his age 28/29 season? I would think even his biggest detractors would agree that, given his speed and positional versatility, he has value as a bench player.
3) Pujols will absolutely sign a multiyear deal with someone this offseason. At this point it looks certain he’ll be back with the Cardinals unless a GM is out there biding his time while the market develops to swoop in with an offer $50M higher than ours. I don’t see that happening.
On #1—Yes it does. Wong was just a safe pick. We on this site prefer the splash (Shelby) to the safe (Lance Lynn). Still, there is something to be said for the safe pick.
On #2—I would agree that, at worst, Tyler Greene is a fine bench player. He can provide some pop, speed, defense off of the bench. I would love to see him get a shot at the everyday SS job, but I am not sure it is going to happen. Who is the leadoff hitter?
On #3—Yes he will. I still believe (and hope) that it is with the Cards.
What people keep overlooking on the wong pick is that the cardinals only had 1 selection in the first 75. With such limited selections, it was best to stay conseervative.
I agree that people on here like the spash of HS pitchers, but truth is they will probably not make the majors. That is just the reality of it.
With limited picks, its better to stay conservative. When you get multiple first rounders, then gamble a bit.
Also, it’s my belief that when you have a hole in your system, and you are faced between filling that hole with a position player with a legit starting MLB ceiling or taking a chance on a starting pitcher with upside, you take the player when your system is already stocked with the latter. Position players tend to be more valuable as prospects than pitchers because they’re more projectable, they have a higher success rate (way, way too many pitching prospects flame out from arm trouble), and, depending on the position, viable talent is harder to find.
Many people had an issue with the Wong pick not because it was “safe,” but because he’s a second baseman. That position is usually on the bottom of the totem pole for drafted position players, mostly because it tends to be the destination of failed or aging shortstops. If I’m remembering correctly, Wong is one of the few second basemen taken in the first round in the past decade. I didn’t have a problem with it because his bat is beyond real, and it was his bat that put him in the late first round in most pre-draft rankings. His Cape Cod League performance was eye-opening, and it wasn’t a fluke.
In that case, I also disagree with those people who won’t pick a second baseman. If wong projects as a ml second baseman, what difference would it have been if Hawii had been playing him at SS. I guess I don’t get that logic.
Division I baseball is full of really good college shortstops. The shuld not reflect on the ability of a second baseman.I do not know the Hawii team, but I am sure they had capable shortstop who were probably better at shortop than Wong.
I would hate to think so many people passed/were willing to pass on Utley because he played second.
I think you misunderstood. The point is that the *position* of second basemen is the least valued for prospects because it has little to no upside. If the player fails defensively at second base, he’s done as a viable prospect. That means the player’s offense better be worth picking him so high, as it was with Utley (who, according to Baseball Cube, was picked 15th). Also, it is a roster spot that is more easily filled with other players, unlike shortshop, catcher, or centerfield.
It should be noted that the quality of Wong’s defense at second has been a point of contention for scouts. Some say he simply isn’t very good, while others believe he could develop into an above-average glove at the position. However, the point remains: at draft day, there were (and still are) questions about Wong’s defensive play at the easiest-to-fill position on the roster. That will lower anybody’s view of the pick, especially when there are starting pitchers with high upside still on the board.
When I was younger, I never understood this. Two of my friends — a power-hitting third baseman and a speedy outfielder — both could have advanced to mid-level minor league players at second base. In both cases, one particular tool (lack of speed for the 3B and lack of arm for the OF) kept them from being offered pro contracts. If second base is the fallback position for so many players, there just aren’t going to be that many spots available.
Hopefully, Wong follows Utley’s path to success.
There are some misconceptions about drafting second basemen here. Over the ten drafts from 1995 to 2004 (the most recent draft for which we can reasonably assume that any player who’s going to reach the Show has already done so), 462 players were drafted with a listed position of 2B, according to B-R. Of those 462, 64 reached the majors, for 14% of the total. That is a somewhat higher percentage than for catchers (about 10%), outfielders (about 11%) or first basemen (about 10.5%, although I’m not sure I counted this right) and slightly higher than for third basemen (13.3%). Only shortstops (16%) were more likely to make it among position players.
The raw numbers of drafted 2Bs are much lower than for most other positions, reflecting the conventional wisdom echoed here, that 2Bs are less appealing candidates in the draft than other position players. However, the weight of the evidence says that those 2Bs who do get drafted are at least as likely to be “athletic” enough to have a career as most others. Yes, in a pinch you can take a random SS or 3B, or maybe even OF, and plug them into a 2B job in the majors. That doesn’t keep the ones who are 2Bs from the get-go from having at least a normal chance of succeeding, which is what matters when looking at somebody like Wong.
Forsch,
I understand, I was just stating why I don’t think it makes sense.
I see absolutly no problems with taking a second baseman with a late first round pick. Nor do I see problems with a HS pitcher. But to base a drafting strategy on excluding either one is not responsible.
I think most people are too optomistic about the draft. Most first rounders are going to fail in the first place.
So when you only have one pick in the top 75, you have to look and say “How can we salvage this draft.” You do that by making sure you can draft a ML pitcher. High upside doesn’t get it done and will likely result in failure. To only have the 1 pick and probably turn out a major league player is a successfull draft. Which is why I don’t understand the philosophy of “I would rather have upside over a succesfull draft”.
Then I’m not sure I understand some of your reasoning in your reply. Wong didn’t play second at Hawaii because somebody better played short–he plays second because that’s his best position by far. That’s pretty much where he’s played most of the time.
If Wong projects as a ML 2nd basemen (and as I said, there are still questions about his glove), then that’s all he’ll ever be in the majors. He’s not going to be able to slide to another position to cover a weak defense–he’s already in that position. Adams is in the same position, except he has the option of DH given his power. In addition, that 2nd baseman prospect will be competing with other players who can’t cut it at their original positions, because second base tends to be a fallback position for them. For instance, Daniel Descalso–the Cardinals’ best 2b prospect before Wong–was drafted as a third baseman. That’s why I qualified my happiness with the pick with Wong’s offense–he’s really a batting prospect. And that’s why I said, “the offense better be there.” Going with an average hitting second baseman in the first round is a geniune waste of a pick, especially when you chose him over ace material.
Also, Grunt…my point was about first round picks, not the overall draft. I don’t have access to BA; do you know where they got their position listings from? I’m asking because somebody once looked at the same numbers (shortly after Wong was drafted, I think) and found that one of the reasons for that high success rate was that many of the players listed at 2B actually were elsewhere when drafted.
B-R, not BA. I believe they got their data from the “official” releases of draft information.
A review of the high drafts over time is interesting. The modern draft was instituted in 1965, and not a single 2B was drafted in the first round until 1971. High-drafted second basemen remained a rarity for a long time; no 2Bs went in the first round between 1974 and 1986. Starting with Chase Utley in 2000, the pattern changed, and while 2Bs continued to be relatively uncommon in the first round, they became a great deal more frequent, averaging more than one a year compared to only 6 from 1965 through 1999. The proportion of 2B drafted in the first round from 1965 to 1999 who played in the majors is actually rather high compared to other positions, but it’s a small-sample-size effect, just one or two of the “successes” not making it would change the conclusion. In total, a smaller fraction (50%) of first-round 2Bs have reached the Show than for other positions, but that is strongly biased by the fact that nearly 20% of the total were drafted in 2009, 2010 or 2011 and just haven’t had time to get there yet.
The explanation that fits the data is that historically, teams have shied away from drafting second basemen out of concern that it’s the “leftover” position, as people here have suggested. However, an influx of real athletes to the position, due maybe to a revitalization of college ball (over two thirds of the first-round 2Bs since 2000 have been either college or juco players — note that by contrast, 2/3 of the first-round shortstops in the same time were drafted out of high school), has started to break through the concern. Frankly, of the SS available when the Cardinals were on the clock, there is not one that I would rather have had than Wong, viewed in the light of hindsight.
Good points.
I think that kind of illustrates my point. You should never have a blanket statment about taking 2nd baseman in the first round. There are some times that it does obiously make sense.
Also, look at the short stops on those teams. If that college team also had a great shortstop, that might be the reason for the move.
Not really. Most people would be perfectly fine drafting a guy like Chase Utley (which Philly obviously was mid-first round). Wong is not Utley–he does not have the defense, the same athletic ability, or the same power.
What’s really changed is that the Moneyball approach started to be used during the past decade league-wide, which gave scouts and draft evaluators better tools to identify individual prospects based on their tools and abilities. That, in turn, helped raise the value of some prospects in low-demand positions—the picks were judged to be good gambles because those specific players were judged to have the tools to make the majors at their position. But that doesn’t mean you completely disregard the strength or weakness of that position in drafting, because that still affects the prospect’s potential upside and path of development. Which is why, as Grunt pointed out, drafting second basemen in the first round still does not occur as frequently as other positions. The issues of drafting at that position are real. A blanket statement of never drafting second basemen in the first round is wrong (and I don’t think anybody here, even Andrew—who hated the Wong pick—believes that), but a blanket disregard to a pick’s future developmental path also is wrong.
I’ll see if that article I mentioned…I think it was either Goold or VEB that did it (I tried to find it here but couldn’t). I am wary of the drafted positions on Baseball Reference for older drafts, because their draft information is a comparatively new addition to the site and I can’t find anything on the site that sources it.
Forsch,
But if you are against drafting second baseman in the first round, then you would not be interested in drafting Utley. That illustrates my point as to why a blanket philosophy of not taking a second baseman is not a good strategy.
If you want to knock the wong pick, nock it on ability and not position. Can he hit the ball and can he catch the ball. I think the anser on that has been yes. But to say hitting and catching are not important because he plays second would be naive.
Also, I think the scouts missed the boat. Maybe its becasue he plays for hawii and not scouted as much, but I belived he was knocked for his athleticism. But then he comes out and starts doing flips…I think he is pretty athletic.
maybe a hi % are college players?
Forch,
(Paragraph 1)
That is kind of my point. If Hawaii did decide to play him at short, why would it have increased his draft value? He is still the same player, projected the same. Where his college team played should not be that relevant. Many times ss are taken in the first round knowing they will be moved to second. The fact that he already was playing second should not have been that big of an infulence
(Paragraph 2)
Its good to have players compete. However, like you mentioned, wong was drafted because he was a great hitter and one of the most advanced hitters in college. To overlook his stick becasue he might only ever be a second baseman is being short sighted. Which is why its stupid to have a philiosphy of not drafting second baseman. Which also comes back to my earlier point, had Hawaii played him at short, why would it increase his draft perception?
(Paragraph 3)
1–If Wong were capable of playing short, it would raise his potential greatly. Shortstop is a high-demand position that many prospects fail at, and many major league teams struggle to fill that position with a well-rounded player more than any other position every year. The two positions are not interchangeable. Wong did not play short because he cannot, not because Hawaii had somebody else there. In fact, Wong was widely regarded as a possible future utility player until he finally found a home at second base about a year before the draft.
2–My point is that second basemen prospects have more competition to make a major league roster because teams do have a tendency to shift declining shortstops or shaky infielders with good bats to second base. So, when you draft a prospect that has little to no hope of moving to another position as a starter, combine that with a more limited road to break into the league as a starter, and it’s really no surprise that even with the Chase Utley Exception Rule, drafting second basemen in the first round is still not something done as regularly as other positions.
Also clarify (‘cause I wasn’t clear), the argument about Wong wasn’t that he just a second basemen, but that he was an undersized second basemen without a ton of power and unproven defense. Utley, he is not.
1) That is not my point. Many time shortstops are selected by a team knowing they have to move him. So why would you view Wong differently? Take a Brett Lowrie. If you have positional concerns, a Brett Lowrie would never be drafted either.
2) I understand some of your point. And i think there are times to make exceptions. This one fits. Late first round, limited selections…take a guy you are pretty sure will make it. but iff you are trully worried about his chances of making the majors, then why ever take a HS pitcher who actually will have an even lower chance of making it.
Wong may be “undersized” compared to the typical baseball player, but he is not an undersized second baseman. There are plenty of successful major-league 2Bs who are smaller than he is, taking into account both height and build. 2B has replaced SS as the landing place for short guys who can handle a bat. He’s not Utley. Neither are a lot of 2Bs who were more valuable this year than Utley was.
I think the basic clash here is that the Cardinals drafted Wong as a second baseman who can become a major-league baseball player, while you and the critics are looking for a baseball player who can become a major-league second baseman. Thirty years ago, your argument would have had merit. But times change, and those that note the changes and take advantage of them are the winners.
I think Forshe was really speaking more for the crowd rather than speakin as one.
What it comes down to is that people wanted higher upside.
However, it’s a stupid draft philosphy to be one sided. Either all upside, or all conservative college pick.
My point is that teams need to change their approach depending on the situation. The cards only had 1 pick in 75. Don’t go for a homerun there. Instead, get some value, any value for that selection. Pick the guy you think will most likely make the majors. Wether its wong, or a lefty releiver.
1–You asked me why would it increase Wong’s draft value if Hawaii played him at short. Your statement sounded like Wong was capable of playing there, when he’s not. What you’re suggesting doesn’t happen–the drafted shortstops you mention, those who are judged at the time of the draft as players who will not stick at their position, usually are not judged as a high upside pick in the first place. Their draft value is hurt by their projected inability to play their drafted position. If a team drafts a quality defensive shortstop, they’re not going to do it with the idea of moving him to second as soon as he turns pro. Second basemen at the major league level are a dime a dozen; shortstops are not (which is why a broken down Jack Wilson currently has a gaggle of suitors and Cesar Izturis still manages to find work).
2–The selections at the time of the draft were not limited. There were at least a couple of Shelby Miller-level pitchers available, which is why some people were upset. You can view it your way, but you have to understand that *all* prospects have a very low chance of making the majors. In my mind, avoiding ace-quality HS pitchers because they “have an even lower chance of making it” is a blanket statement that’s equally wrong. I would argue that a player with a high upside, even a starting pitcher, has a better chance of making a real contribution to the major league roster than a low-upside pick, because there’s more wiggle room in player development. Rick Porcello is not the ace pitcher people hoped he be, but he still has started 89 games over 3 seasons for Detroit. with time to get better (he’s only 22). Even with his big overslot contract, he still was less expensive than veteran starters providing the same level of pitching he has, and he’s got 2 option years left on that contract.
Let me put it this way…I originally said the Wong pick was the right one to make because the Cardinals had a hole in their system at second, had a great batting prospect sitting there for the taking, and were already stocked with top-rotation pitching prospects. If all things were equal and the Cardinals’ system were empty on both counts, and they still selected Wong over a couple of guys like Guerreri and Norris, I would have howled with the rest, because:
a. Ace-level pitchers are hard to come by at the major league level, and when they do, they’re damned expensive. They’re also harder to come by in the later rounds of the draft.
b. Meanwhile, it’s much easier and cheaper to fill your second baseman position at the major league level. There’s also several more candidates, because you’re not looking for an “ace-level” second baseman; just one who’s capable of starting.
c. Yes, pitching prospects tend to implode more than position prospects. To me, that means if you have the opportunity to pick up a pitching prospect with the upside to be an ace, because the more of ‘em you have, the better chance you have of having an ace arm on the cheap. The Cardinals have several arms that profile as top-of-the-rotation starters, with two of them among the nation’s elite. Picking yet another prospect of that caliber would have been redundant, and it would have left a serious hole in the system in the middle infield, of which only Ryan Jackson, in my mind, currently has a chance of becoming a major league starter. This year, the Cardinals made the correct choice in taking the “safe” pick. But it’s not always the correct choice.
1) My statement was a knock on the “Never draft a college second baseman” strategy. My point would be had thye played him at Short, why should that have influenced his value. Because with this philosophy, ability is secondary to college positioning.
2) There are always HS arms available every year. And its a similar argument every time the cards don’t pick one. And actually, as I stated before, drafting is a balance. I also think you also need to go for the high upside. Just not everytime. I also would not have picked Porcello becaue I am against giving HS pitchers Major league contracts.
a) I agree its not always correct to take the safe pick. That was my point. There are times to be conservative and times to be agressive. With one late rounder in 75 picks, it was best to stay conservative. With Multiple first rounders, its better to go aggresive.
Greg Garcia would have been the SS there for a little of the same time I believe
Upon further review, yes Garcia was the Hawaii SS for two of Wong’s three seasons.
I’ve come around to the Wong pick after some thought but I still completely disagree that if you only have 1 pick in 75 you have to go for a value pick. I think during a year where it’s pretty obvious that the CBA will be changed and there will be a hard slotting system (there is one now so no more signability picks) we needed to spend more money on this trade and get the type of players we won’t be able to in the future i.e Wil Myers in the 3rd, Mat Latos in the 7th.
That said Wong is what he is, a good hitting high onbase guy. His defensive rating has been upgraded to above average and he has good speed. He could be starting in STL by 2013. This fills a gaping hole on the MLB roster that hasn’t been filled by a good player since Fernando Vina.
The downside of Wong is the opportunity cost of not picking a very high upside starter. Many were still available. Thats a possible number 1 starter in the future or even a Top trade chip if we would need it in the future.
Forsch your exactly correct on this. I’m not sure when Lohse signed but a Porcello type pick would have made a Lohse or Westbrook type contract unnecessary. 7 mil for a guy who is pretty much guaranteed to be at least a 5th starter and thats if he is a huge disspointment is alot more cost effective than paying Lohse 12 mil dollars a year for 4 years.
Wong was a good pick in our case but still hat passing on Big Arms. I was a pitcher and if someone as talented as Guerriri in available we should take that type of player more often than not.
Speaking of Pujols, did anybody else see Jeff Passan’s article today suggesting that Pujols should sign with the Cubs, so as to create a LeBron James-like situation? Sheesh, what a macaroon. He might as well have said “Pujols should sign with the Cubs because the media say so and want to have a pre-fabricated story line, screw what makes sense in baseball terms because the media and pandering to a sensation-craving, clueless public are more important.”
This said, it would be interesting to get Matt Adams’ views on the matter.
lol
I like the last line
Off topic, but would you do it….if you’re the Cardinals
Shelby Miller, Matt Adams, and Allen Craig for Andrew McCutcheon
???
Too much. Miller’s an elite national prospect projected as an ace, who also happens to be close to the majors. Miller alone should be enough. McCutcheon’s also coming off a bad year at the plate–the power’s still there, but his BA dropped 30 points.
Agree with that, at this point I wouldn’t give up Miller or Martinez for him.
A package that I would do would be something like Cox, Jenkins and a Blair type.
Not in a zillion years. That’s the kind of trade Walt Jocketty would have made.
How do we know that? Jocketty never had a Miller in his farm system. Jocketty may have traded a lot of prospects but not many were highly touted. That is just another way of saying, Jocketty’s farm system, with a few notable exceptions, stunk.
I will say this for Walt, he didn’t trade Pujols….and plenty of teams would have been happy to take him off of our hands….
I probably wouldn’t do it either. However, you have to give something to get something.
But boy would McCutcheon look good in CF for us.
I am a big Jon Jay fan, but also realize that he is probably best suited to reserve OF duty.
Dan Haren (Miller), Daric Barton (Adams), and Kiko Calero for Mark Mulder. Not quite the same package, but the return of McCutcheon would be better.
Yeah, Jocketty would be capable of something like that to keep the Cardinals in contention.
I disagree.
Jocketty never adapted to new evaluation techniques and therefore never really had that many quality players to trade.
I also doubt Jocketty would have traded an allen craig.
Jocketty would have traded Lance Lynn, Oscar Taveras and Fernando Salas for Jair Jurrjens. Then Lynn would become an ace, Taveras would become a weak-hitting reserve and Salas an average setup guy, while Jurrjens had 1 good-not-great season before being mauled by a bear hiking in the Rockies.
Nice comparison
That pretty much sums up what was given for Mulder. However, Mulder was more highly regarded than Jurrjens is now.
But yes….Lance Lynn is basically Dan Haren (at this point)
Hope he becomes Dan Haren
Haren was our number 1 prospect. I don’t think Lynn has ever been our Top guy. Essentially, he’s been like number 4 I think a few years ago.
I think, however, that if you go back to what the observers were saying about the farm system when Haren was the #1 pitching prospect, what emerges is that he was the best of a bad lot (in their eyes). In terms of expectations, I don’t think he was a great deal different than the expectations for Lynn circa March 2011. Nobody saw him as an impending ace, the way the ill-starred Alan Benes was before him, or Shelby Miller is after him. That he actually became one surprised a lot of people. (I will modestly assert that the first time I saw him pitch, my reaction was “hey, this guy could be better than people think” — but I get ‘em wrong a lot more than I get ‘em right.)
His year as top prospect was flanked by years where Jimmy Journell and Blake Hawksworth were the top prospects.
Wasn’t Lynn minor league pitcher of the year in 2009?
I think they are very similar
No. Way too much for him.
OTT–but the old Future Redbirds.com site has been hacked. Unless the Cardinals have gone organic with their nutrition…
We know. I have all the old files from there saved off but I’ve never taken the time to figure out how to load them onto this site.
I wish you would if theres more information there it would be great to access it.