Baseball Instinct Top 10 Cardinal Prospects
Posted on December 1st, 2011 by azruavatar in Prospect rankingsThere’s one prospect on that list that may surprise you. Generally it’s a solid list though you can nick pick some rankings based on your personal perspectives.
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So who’s the surprise? If you mean Rosey, I’m not the slightest bit surprised he’s on a top-10 list, and there are other sites out there that I’ve seen list him in their overall top 100. Young man is beginning to attract attention.
Rosenthal at #5 should be, imo, a surprise or at least a deviation from conventional wisdom.
That’s why I mentioned that other site (can’t remember which one right now) that had him at #91 or 92 overall. This ranking didn’t surprise me as much as it would have before I saw that other one.
“Conventional wisdom” appears not to be completely unanimous here. I’ll be very interested to see where people like Kevin Goldstein put him, but the fact that the conversation is even possible at all says very good things about this system.
Found it: http://seedlingstostars.com/2011/10/07/the-seedlings-to-stars-2012-top-100-prospects-92-trevor-rosenthal/ .
Rosie will be one of the more difficult rankings for me personally. I’ve seen him live but I just haven’t decided entirely what I think about his upside. Need to review my notes and what not again too.
This is an interesting list. They’re up to #36 (starting at #100) and already three Cardinals prospects are listed: Martinez at 37, Cleto at 85, and Rosenthal at 92. I didn’t expect Cleto or Rosenthal to be in the Top 100 anywhere, but perhaps more surprising is that there are no Cardinals prospects between Martinez and Cleto. I’m surprised to see any of Jenkins, Taveras, Wong, Adams, or Cox either above Martinez or below Cleto and Rosenthal. Whichever one it is, I’m interested to see it happen and hear what they have to say if they’re in the top 35.
I’ve never heard of seedlingstostars.com , so normally I’d just dismiss these rankings based on their weirdness, but the Cleto writeup actually seemed pretty well-informed. How frequently do they post the next rank?
To answer my own question: The next player is revealed daily.
Wong and Jenkins are just outside the top 100, according to the author ‘s comments.
Might Matt Adams be ahead of CMart? Or even OScar ?
Yes, the author stated that there were 5 Cards prospects in his top 100 (Jenkins and Wong were in the top 125 but didn’t make the cut), and Rosenthal, Cleto, and Martinez have already been identified. Assuming Shelby Miller is one of the two remaining, the question is which of Adams, Cox, or Taveras is the other one? I’d have to guess Taveras, but we’ll see.
I can’t imagine Cox or Adams being in the top 35. Taveras, on the other hand …
Well, this author had Cleto in his top 100 in all of baseball, so I wouldn’t presume. (But I do think it’ll be OT)
Taveras is #28 on this list.
Tat was very well done, thanks for the link
If I were making a list right now. I think this would be the exact order I’d have. I might switch rosenthawesome and Jenkins, but that would just be me being a homer.
I probably wouldn’t have lynn, as I don’t consider him a prospect any longer. Make Tilson, m-carp, or jackson my number 10
Lynn won’t be on the FR list. He’s pitched too many MLB innings.
What is your cut off on IP?
Just as a point of reference, Lynn has pitched less than 35 big league innings (reg season). Blake Hawksworth was on the 2010 list after having pitched 40 innings.
Whoops. You are right. I thought he was over the rookie status limit but it is much higher than I recalled: 50 IP. He will be on the list then. Blech. Now I have to figure that out too.
We’ll adhere to the same rules we always do: Rookie status w/o regards to service time. 50 IP, 130 ABs
Note that Sanchez also fits beneath the 50-IP limit.
Ironic, though — there have been years when ignoring the service time part of the BBWAA RotY criteria was almost necessary if we were to have enough prospects worth talking about. Now we have the opposite problem. This problem is much better.
Me too. I’d switch Adams and Cox, mainly out of concern about the way Adams looked in the AFL, and drop Rosenthal a slot or two while moving others up — but this really looks quite good.
Jackson for the #10 (or maybe 9) spot, as my list would also not include Lynn or Sanchez, for eligibility reasons. They’d both make the top ten if eligible, but both have played enough in the majors now to be considered major leaguers, IMO.
Also, not sure I we discussed this, but Sickels put out his cardinals top 20 a while ago:
http://mobile.minorleagueball.com/2011/10/19/2502022/st-louis-cardinals-top-20-prospects-for-2012
Sickels was the first person to mention Rosenthal as a top 20 prospect in his 2010 rankings, so I was surprised he only had him at 10 this year
Can’t say I’ve ever heard of this site, but this seems pretty legit. They are not impressed with Zack Cox.
Can’t say as I blame them. I think it’s hard to project a corner infielder with little power and questionable defense. He would have to have Boggsian upside in terms of oba to be an asset. He may actually achieve that but it would be a big reach to predict it.
I’ve never heard of this site either but it seems like they know our system and have intelligent things to say about the prospects. Have to book mark it.
You don’t have to have Wade Boggs’ OBP “to be an asset.” That’s pretty silly. Was Bill Madlock not an “asset”? He had the same power projections as Cox and also had questionable defense. How about Kevin Seitzer? He was a below-average defender who averaged 4 WAR per full season from age 25-30 and also had little power. Edgardo Alfonzo?
You could even look at David Freese. An average defender who has only hit 15 home runs over +660 ML PAs. By this logic, he’s not an “asset” (and Cox has always been a better prospect than Freese was).
Cox can easily be an asset even if he only hits 10-15 home runs a year with questionable defense.
You’re right that asset was a poor choice of words and Boggs a poor comparison. My point was that demonstrated power and good defense are more easy to project than high batting average in the minors. I’ve seen some projections for Cox to hit .280 with 10-15 home runs. That would make him a major leaguer but I’m not sure why that makes him a better prospect than, say, Matt Carpenter.
Cox has had only one year to show what dimensions he has to his game and he may be able to expand on that next season. For now though I don’t blame some raters for being skeptical about his ultimate value.
No prob – I just read that and was like “Wha?” – btw, Wade Boggs was ridiculous. He led the AL in OBP in 6 of his first 8 years and had a string of 4 straight years where his OBP was > .450.
I personally think Cox is a +.300 BA hitter who will get 200 hits per year with average defense at 3B. He may only hit 12-15 homers in a park like Busch, but he’ll hit a lot of doubles – something like Michael Young (playing in a bandbox is the only reason why Young has hit 20 homers a few times, IMO). And that’s pretty good.
I actually think he’ll be a .300 hitter too but so far he hasn’t shown other dimensions. By the way I looked up Seitzer and Madlock’s minor league stats. Seitzer was pretty Boggsian himself in terms of obp and also showed some base stealing speed. Both only partially carried over into his major league career.
Mad Dog was a late bloomer, not showing all that much until his AAA season at age 22. Then he hit .338 with 22 homers and 17 sb’s.
I’ll be happy if Cox holds his average, adds more walks and improves his D this year.
bill mueller, david magadan, ??
Looking at Cox’s swing in that video, I can see why there are so many doubts about his power potential. I’m hardly an expert on this, but it looks like he’s sacrificing torque with that narrow stance and bleeding energy with all that pre-swing movement. It’d be interesting to see what Chris O’Leary would make of that swing.
I think power is sometimes overrated. If you only hit 10-15 HR, but smack 30 doubles you will be fine. Especially with a high obp and average. Peg that in at #2 in the line up.
If Zack Cox ends up similar to Bill Mueller, I would be very happy.
Im still not ready to totally peg Cox as a no power 3rd baseman with bad D yet. First off, he hit for exceptional power his freshman year in the SEC, but didn’t do so well in the avg. and strikeout department. He made the adjustments in his swing his Soph year to hit for an unreal avg. in SEC terms and zapped his strikeouts down, and of course his power went down with this. However, if he can make those kind of adjustments so early in his career, why can’t he eventually learn how to add some of that natural power that he does have into his current swing? Not saying he absolutely will because becoming a good major leaguer is very hard, but I don’t think for a second its out of the realm of possibility for him. Still think he can become average to above average defensively at 3rd due to strong arm and reported strong work ethic. We will have to wait and see what happens, but I dont think its impossible for him to run into 20 homerun a year power.
I was unaware Cox hit for power as a college freshman. Interesting nugget of info.
And he also changed his swing drastically between his freshman and sophomore years. Look at the numbers from there, and there is a drastic difference. His freshman year, he hit for little contact, but significant power. Turn into his sophomore year and he hits for significant contact, but little power. There was a significant amount of change in that swing, and we’re talking about two opposite ends of the radical spectrum.
Yes he did change his swing alot. That shows a great ability to make the adjustments needed to be successful at the major league level, which is why so many prospects fail because they can’t do that. He made the adjustment to make better contact and hit for higher BA, and whose to say that he cant make adjustments to his high contact swing in order to add some power? He is still very much a prospect and like all prospects does have the chance to improve, and he does have the kind of build where there is natural power there, its a matter of finding a way to harness it just like he had to find a way to harness his hitting skill to hit for better average.
That shows that he can’t find a happy medium, and that when he does it’s going to either zap his power or he’ll struggle to make contact. I’d rather have one great skill and one bad skill then two average skills. You are asking him to become a player he isn’t by keeping the contact skills by adding power to his swing. If you’re going for a power swing, you open up more holes in your swing and thus leads to worse contact.
Cox hit for power his freshman year with a totally different swing. He completely revamped it over the winter after his freshman year to become what we drafted. I’m guessing he won’t mess with it again as what he was as a sophomore is what got him his MLB contract. He is what he is now.
Not shocked that folks are starting to recognize Rosenthal. Our FO was giddy in ST last year. I think Rosenthal would be considerably higher on the prospect list had he ignored the advice to develop his changeup and back off his heater. It wouldn’t have been the right thing to do, however.
In Rosenthal’s first game at QC he struck out 11 of the first 12 outs. He could have done that a good part of the season had he simply been interested in looking good in A league. Instead, he was interested in becoming a ML pitcher and allowed his stats to suffer…while developing his repetoir.
Rosenthal is a good comp to Oswalt, IMO. Both were selected late from small colleges. It took 4 years for Oswalt to land on top 100 prospect lists…but the man hit the majors running. I think that can happen to Rosey.
Rosenthal could land in the pen, but I think it would be a big waste. He’s top of the rotation starter material, again, IMO.
I’m not all that knowledgeable on Oswalt, but I was under the impression he is smaller and he is one of the small frame power pitcher exceptions. Rosenthal is built to start and eat innings. His greatest positive is that he holds his velocity through the 100 pitch mark. They haven’t let him go much more to date. I think he topped at 108 pitches last year.
As to your 1st paragraph, it’s clear you are plugged in.
Roy is 6′ 192 lbs according to Yahoo. Rosey is 6’2″ 190 lbs. Not a lot of difference. Roy was able to keep his velocity up although he only had 20 CG’s and 8 shutouts. The thing about comps is that they run out sooner or later… But, I liked the high velocity, wiry frame, late in draft and JC College origin.
I think if we could get a Roy Oswalt kind of career out of Rosey, we’d be darned happy. :o)
6 ft is very generous Oswalt
I don’t know. I’ve never stood next to the guy.
I have and I had an inch on him, and at my last Navy physical i was 70.5 inches
“Stood next to the guy …” “Had an inch on him…” Let’s keep this conversation PG-rated, okay? ;-)
You sure it’s the right Oswalt? He shouldn’t be taking any Navy physicals, he’s too old. ;o)
I have always heard Linceum and Oswalt mentioned as having the same build. Rosenthal, on the other hand is definitely over 6 ft. and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him fill out to 200-210. I’m not so sure he isn’t 200 in reality now. I think Roy was drafted after 2 years while Rosie only had one year of Juco. But you are correct, there are some comparisons to Oswalt on paper.
Projecting Rosie is tough (like any projection is easy?). He could be a #2, but he could also be a very serviceable workhorse innings eater like a Jeff Suppan was. I tend to think the latter, but that ain’t bad, and I also think that is very achievable. On the other hand, I don’t mind dreaming upside. All indicatons are he has a good work ethic and as you noted earlier, he has his head on straight. He is willingly doing what the Organization is telling him to as opposed to our well publicized #1, Shelby Miller.
By the way, Trevor got married a couple of weeks ago. I’m sure we all wish him the best of luck! The kid is getting all “growed” up! (tear sliding down cheek)
Per Jim Duquette’s Twitter post “#Cardinals Jeff Luhnow was in to interview for #Astros GM job yesterday, #Rockies Bill Geivett was interviewed today.”
Interesting…
Interesting indeed, it’s safe to say Luhnow won’t be around forever, hopefully since he has been here for awhile there are people underneath that have been or are being groomed to successfully take over his duties if and when that day comes. My hope is never but hopefully we are able to move forward in that event.
At the minimum, there’s Vuch.
I’d hate to lose him; the way this team has turned around the farm system is just incredible. But at the same time, you don’t want to deny a capable man a chance to move up — to the extent that the guy in the bullseye for Houston is a “move up” from a position, any position, with St. Louis. My question is: why would he WANT that job?
I disagree. The farm system is getting better since they’ve had a complete 180 degree turn on the stance of the farm system. Under Jocketty, the farm system was viewed as nothing more than poker chips used to bolster the big league club. Where as under Mozealiak, they use the idea that it’s a way to bring up cost controlled, replaceable players to put around their big league club.
And I wouldn’t exactly give a whole lot of credit to Lunhow, especially when most of his picks were pretty much no-brainers. 2007 was the first real draft that Lunhow had his prints all over. In 2008, the Cardinals took Brett Wallace, the best college bat in the draft, and there really wasn’t anyone better than Wallace. In 2009, he took Shelby Miller who was far and away the best player available. And then in 2010, he took Zack Cox who was BPA. I want to see more of what he did in the later rounds. From 2007, Reifer, Hooker and Hill are the only three relatively notable picks with Descalso being the only one with notable PT at the big league level. In 2008, the class was pretty bad outside of Brett Wallace and Lance Lynn. In 2009, this was by far his best draft with Miller, Kelly, Jackson, Carpenter, and Rosenthal as the notable names from that draft. The 2010 draft was good at the top, but tails off as you get lower.
He hasn’t been bad, but he hasn’t been as great as some want to make him out to be.
Actually, what you listed is pretty good. Still pretty recent to get a decent read. Plus the cards lead the way in having the most draft picks make the majors.
There is no such thing as no-brainers in the draft. If all those players were no-brainers, why were they still on the board?
2007 is pretty much regaurded as a down year.
Still too early on 2010. But are you really juding a draft based off the back half just 2 years after it was completed?
No such thing as no-brainers? You do realize the only reason Zack Cox and Shelby Miller were still on the board was because of rumored bonus demands. Some thought Shelby Miller was asking for 5+ million, but he signed for a respectable 2.875 million. Zack Cox ended up taking a ML deal to get his contract signed. And with Brett Wallace, a LOT of people project his move from third to first despite glowing reviews about his bat.
You might not be able to completely judge after two years, but you get a pretty good idea. Sure, players can come out of nowhere but it really isn’t wise to be hoping on it.
Until people produce in the MLB level they aren’t sure things. Luhnows strength wasn’t picking top guys but stocking the system with guys with a chance to produce. A few years ago our system was horrible not only on talent making it to the Bigs but they also couldn’t even field a competietive teams in the minors. 2 years ago the Cardinals had the best winning percentage baseball wide in the minors. Luhnow not only picked guys that look to be able to produce someday in the Bigs but also increased overall system strength.
Well obviously they aren’t sure things, but that doesn’t make them any less superior than any other prospects. Money aside, was Bryce Brentz or Austin Wilson the superior prospect? It’s Wilson and it isn’t even close. Brentz might be the “safer” pick, but Wilson’s superior upside weighs more heavily. Shelby Miller is the greatest example of this.
The Cardinals had to rebuild their farm system which is why the Cardinals went high floor, low ceiling the first couple of drafts after Lunhow got extensive control. Now that the farm system has been revamped, we’re starting to see the Cardinals taking more risks. A few years ago, the Cardinals would have never considered taking players like Charlie Tilson or Kenny Peoples-Walls in the early rounds like they did in this past draft. The Cardinnals have actually been getting quite predictable the last few years. They either go HS first and then draft college players for a few picks after that OR they go college first and then take a high risk HS kid shortly there after.
That’s part of the reason why I didn’t love the Wong pick. I thought there were a couple of HS kids that were superior prospects to Wong.
Do we know Tilson and Peoples-Walls are superior to Darryl Jones or Pete Kozma or Tuivailala? It may take 5 years to find out.
Tilson is superior to Jones. One was a football player trying to play baseball. Tilson is a baseball player with Jacoby Ellsbury type talent. Peoples-Walls is just a raw athlete also and suspect that Kozma is going to end up being a better baseball player.
Cox had high salary demands because he was a sophmore eligible draftee. While an interesting prospect, he was not a mega prospect. Its reasonable many teams would have been unwilling to pay a premium to get a sophmore signed.
Also, the cards were one of the worst farm systems when Lunhow took over. They will probably be top ten this year.
Yeah, I will go on record and say he has done a good job.
That’s because Jocketty would trade them at the drop of a hat. Jocketty was notorious for flipping prospects to fill a leak. Look at the Mark Mulder trade, and how bad that was. You’re messing with fire if you flip cheap, cost controlled replaceable players for the more expensive veterans. Jocketty lucked out and that most of his trades ended up towards the Cardinals favor. The farm system was nothing more than a bunch of trading chips at Jocketty’s disposal. Drafting and developing talent wasn’t at the premium it is now.
Thats why Jocketty lost his job he wouldn’t get on board with the changing way baseball was being done.
Jocketty didn’t lose his job, he left it since there was a philosophical change from the ownership down. Jocketty was a firm believer that the farm system was to be used to bolster the big league club through trades, not as cost controlled replacement players.
Walt Jocketty was fired, and given a year’s salary as severance. Since Walt was unwilling to support the goals of the owner, DeWitt was forced to replace him.
Jocketty was fired.
Who did he flip for McGwire? Who did he flip for Rolen? Who did he flip for Edmonds? What did he get back for JD Drew?
There is a reason the Cards competed virtually every year from 1996 on. Yes, the Mulder trade hurt long term, but it helped until Mulder got hurt.
My point exactly. Just because the Cardinals sucked at drafting and developing talent doesn’t make Jocketty’s moves correct. What little talent the Cardinals did draft often ended up going to other teams. Poor drafting combined with trading the talent in our farm system for quick fixes in the big league level left our farm deprived of talent. You really think it’s any wonder why the Cardinals between 2005 and 2008 were hurting to put talent around their key cogs. In 2008, they had to resort on guys like Felipe Lopez, Cesar Izturis, and Chris Duncan to fill their roles. Just because things turned out well for the Cardinals doesn’t mean it’s right.
Did the trades help the big league club? Absolutely, and I don’t think there is anyone here that is willing to disagree with that. But with a payroll that has done nothing but increase since 2000:
* 2011: $109,048,000
* 2010: $ 94,220,500
* 2009: $ 88,528,409
* 2008: $ 99,624,449
* 2007: $ 90,286,823
* 2006: $ 88,891,371
* 2005: $ 92,106,833
* 2004: $ 83,228,333
* 2003: $ 83,786,666
* 2002: $ 74,660,875
* 2001: $ 78,538,333
* 2000: $ 63,900,000
The Cardinals have needed to find cheap, young players to supplement their star players who were set for large contract extensions. Guys like Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols in recent years, or Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, and Albert Pujols in earlier years.
I couldn’t disagree more with your point on Jocketty’s trades. It does matter that we gave up almost nothing in most of those trades in assessing whether it was the right move. It is a separate issue from his failure to consistently produce cheaper talent. However the job of the GM is for the bigleague club to win games and to do so within the budgetary constraints placed upon him by the owner. Jocketty did that.
There is no one that we traded in those trades that I mentioned that we look back now and say we wish we had that guy rather than the guy we got. Jocketty won all of those trades and most are not close.
It is clear that the Cardinals decided to put more emphasis on the farm system and graduating players than using them to trade for other players. Part of the reason is that the value of prospects has dramatically increased. More people are looking for cheap options and so we needed to change our focus.
But that still doesn’t change the fact that the farm system’s job is to develop talent for the big league club either through graduating players to the big leagues or by being part of a trade package to supplement the roster. That Jocketty had them into contention almost every year merits some praise, even if he did it in a way that is inconsistent with this web-site’s focus.
Jocketty went somthing like 10 years without developing a first round pick.
Very disturbing news indeed.
However, I’m shocked that he’d be interviewing for a GM job. I’d think he’d need to serve an asst GM job first…
He’s actually ranked above Asst. GM, since he’s a VP. His name is in bold on the Cardinals website. Yea, that’s right, BOLD.
interesting article on Matt Adams. http://rumbunter.com/2011/11/30/the-impact-1b-the-pittsburgh-pirates-need-was-ohhh-so-close/
Wonder if we are selling Lynn short? He certainly showed this year that he can get major league hitters out in the bullpen. No, he was not as dominate as Waino but he was better than McClellan, who was a serviceable starter. He looks like he has the body to start and he has to be better than Westbrook doesn’t he?
I also get the feeling there may be more room in the rotation than we think, Carpenter pitched a lot of innings this year, Garcia had a big jump in innings pitched and it probably would be a good year to sell high on Lohse for a center fielder or short stop.
Better than westbrooke? Depends on how you measure. ERA probably, but I doubt you will be able to get 180-200 innings from Lynn.
With Carps aga and Waino comming of TJ, they are still going to need innings. Good to see loshe rebound though.
Results-wise, he might be better than Westbrook, but remember that Lynn only pitched 34.2 innings as a reliever last year (Wainwright pitched 75 in 2006), so if you’re going off of his MLB performance as an indicator of what he would do as a starter, keep in mind it’s a pretty small sample.
Westbrook was bad but not horrible for a 5th starter–4.25 FIP, which actually is better than that of Jeremy Hellickson (4.44) and a bit better than that of Randy Wolf (4.29), and Brett Myers (4.26). It also puts him in the bottom third of starters, so it’s not much to crow about. I think a lot of the displeasure with him comes the expectations of him being a mid-rotation starter and that contract he got. His Fangraph stats actually are pretty much in line with what he got in Cleveland in the middle of last decade–the real problem is that he’s giving up more base-on-balls (3.58 per 9 in 2011, compared with 2.34 in 2006, probably his best year).
Both Lohse and Westbrook have blanket no-trade clauses, so they’re not going anywhere. Which is okay., because probably for the first time in a long while, St. Louis has pitching depth. Lynn can take spot starts from the bullpen and fill in if there’s a long-term injury, while Miller most likely will be in Memphis for a call-up. Plus, either Boggs or Scrabble can take spot starts. There’ll be two positions open in the 2013 rotation, and Lynn will get his opportunity then.
The video they have of Carlos Martinez is amazing. His stuff is soo nasty.
Nasty stuff, to put it mildly, but I worry about that leg action. Three concerns. First, he spins out of fielding position, leaving him vulnerable to comebackers. Second, the lack of repeatability may contribute to control/command issues. Third and most importantly, I worry about injury risk, with all those violently moving parts.
Arms like that don’t grow on trees, though. He could dial it back two or three mph to get the legs under control and solidify the follow-through, and still have plenty of giddyap left to get major leaguers out. This looks like a potential big-time pitcher to me. Then again, I’m not a pro. Any more serious analysts available to dissect that motion?
Bpb Gibson laughs at your concern. Then he buzzes you.:-)
I was thinking the same thing………
LOL! The comparison isn’t bad, actually; going back and looking at Gibson’s motion, it was an amazing thing. He had command issues as a young pitcher, but it’s fair to say that all worked out …
However, Gibson was an exception. That was a very “athletic” guy, and he had body strength beyond what Martinez does now, as well as the balance of the basketball player that he was. I don’t think Martinez can be counted on to have all that, so I’d still like to see him get rid of some of the most extreme post-pitch leg gyrations, if he can do it and still have the big heater.
I think what he does with his leg is actually benefitial in helping his arm decelerate successfully. Chirs O’Leary analyzed Martinez’s motion and said that he’s got a good motion that doesn’t have any redflags to it.
“Bpb Gibson laughs at your concern. Then he buzzes you.:-)”
LOL
What violent moving parts. He is pretty smooth, free and easy velocity.
The only thing I worry about is that he kinda abruptly ends his follow-thru.
His arm action is a joy to watch. The thing that bothers me is the follow-through, for which “violent” strikes me as a reasonable description. He was never facing the same way in that clip twice after completing the pitch, and there were times when he was verging on simply falling down. That’s eventually going to be a problem — I worry that he’ll land awkwardly and something will give. And he’s going to have real difficulties fielding the position, particularly with regard to hard-hit balls. I really don’t want what happened to Blake Hawksworth to happen to Martinez.
I love seeing different sites Top XX Prospects lists. Obviously BI takes into account upside over close to the majors so it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Rosie is so high on their list. His upside is a solid #2 SP and he has shown the ability to dominate opposing hitters. Now we will see if he can do it in the upper minors and then we will know what type of player he can be. Looking at all the rankings just goes to show how many legit players we have in our system right now. I am as excited as I ever have been over our system and feel we FINALLY have both depth and star power. Just need to keep stocking the system as you can never have enough solid talent in the system.
This is a little off topic, but with the winter meetings starting, and the big league team needing MI help, does anyone have ideas on possible trades? Who should we target? And what should we give up? I would think 2b, and try to give up,maybe McLellan and possibly Chambers. That might only net Prado, but would it be worth it?
There’s no way that’s close to netting Prado. Chambers is a C-level prospect and McClellan is a non-tender candidate.
Can polonco play second anymore?
Jed Lowrie might be an interesting tagret, or even Mike Aviles.
Polanco can barely play third, and his hitting is declining. What a drag it is, getting old.
I’d be surprised if either Lowrie or Aviles were available for a price less than an arm (Shelby) and a leg (Wong). That’s way too much.
I agree that is way too much. I doubt they ask that much.
Lowrie is 28. Like Greene, his clock has run out. Aviles is 31, and really nothing more than a super platoon.
I am fine going into the season with Greene at SS and Descalso at 2b, and resigning Punto and keeping Schu to back them up. Additionally Cruz, Craig, Theriot and Carpenter are all potential backups with Jackson (and Garcia) possibly being ready at mid season. Signing up guys like Rollins, Furcal etc. for long contracts just clog up the roster and don’t allow flexibility after you see what you have in house.
Then if they need to make a move at the trade deadline they can go out and get someone like Furcal again.
See, I think you’re setting yourself, and Tyler Greene to fail if you just hand Greene the starting SS job. You’re putting all your eggs in his basket and the pressure of filling up to expectations could actually harm him, much like it did Colby Rasmus. Theriot is a near lock to be a non-tender, so I’d be surprised if he was on the roster. Cruz is a third baseman in a pinch, but he’s really only a 1B/C option. It was a nice wrinkle to see Allen Craig at second, but unless things change significantly over the offseason it’s not realistic to expect him to hold up at second over the course of a season. And Matt Carpenter certainly can’t play the MIF positions.
Agreed on the part about signing Rollins, Furcal, or the like to a long term contract doesn’t make sense, which is part of the reason I was hoping for a one year deal with a vesting option for Rafael Furcal for this upcoming season but he appears to be set on a three year deal. The guy I’d target with that kind of contract is Jack Wilson, with Orlando Cabrera being the back up option to Wilson.
And have you seen DD’s wicked lefty/righty splits? .190/.277/.241 is horrible, that’s significantly worse than Ryan Howard who has an ugly L/R split. There is NO WAY he should even be under consideration for the starting 2B job.
+ 1, Descalso is fine as a reasonable backup option for 3b, 2b, and emergency ss but would much rather look at someone like kelly johnson who now wont require our 1st rd pick to sign, get someone like that for a year maybe two, then see where you are with Wong and or other FA options that might finally be a more longterm solution at 2b for us.
Btw, bullpenbanter.com has put out their top 15 for the cardinals today, sorry if someone has already mentioned this, but thought I would share nonetheless. Can’t get the link to work on here, but if you go to the website, its the first thing you will see.
I think it works if you include the stuff up front, i.e., http://bullpenbanter.com/ . Interesting that a couple of this year’s toolsy center fielders make the top 15, while Maikel Cleto is nowhere in sight. They are quite complimentary about the system as a whole.
I guess I was suggesting that they need to see what they have at SS and 2b with Greene and Descalso respectively. Is Greene an adequate fielder at SS with good power and excellent speed, and is Descalso a good enough hitter and fielder at 2b to be a starter, or is he only a good reserve IF who can play all three non 1b positions, and be a good platoon reserve who hits lefty?
They need to fill those positions accordingly for 2012 because by 2013 they will need to see what they have with Jackson (maybe mid 2012) at SS and Wong at 2b. In 2012 Greene and Descalso should start with someone like Punto and Schu (maybe, maybe Theriot (because of being able to platoon with Descalso). I just don’t see getting anyone who ties them up in 2013 and beyond (maybe not even for 2012 UNTIL they see if Greene and/or Descalso can be adequate starters).
Watching Furcal pick it at SS, reminded me again how important defense up the middle is to a winning team. If they don’t have any money to spend after signing Pujols maybe they will be forced to do something like play Greene and Descalso up the middle. Now I would love to see Greene finally break out but I would rather see him win the 2B job with a veteran at SS than start the season with a young, untested keystone combination.