Baseball Instinct: Carlos Martinez
Posted on December 5th, 2011 by azruavatar in Carlos Martinez, tags: Baseball Instinct, Carlos Martinez, Scouting ReportI’m just getting around to Baseball Instinct’s post on Carlos Martinez. Even if you don’t want to read the post (you should though) go check out the 11 minute video. I love the curveball in on the hands of the hitter at 4:50. There’s not a lot about Martinez’s mechanics that I don’t like — I don’t have the same concerns about his plant leg and the relationship to the arm as the Baseball Instinct guys do. I think the comments about his arm coming back and him stopping it “unnaturally” are appropriate though it’s unclear to me how much undue stress that’s really causing on the arm.
Martinez is undersized for what you’d consider an average MLB pitcher and if anything that’s my biggest concern. His mechanics are so good that it helps mitigate those worries. The only other nitpick I’d have is that the follow through on his leg kick doesn’t leave him in a great spot to field the ball. There’s also a couple of pitches were he slips in the video because of the kick. That really is small peanuts in the grand scheme of a pitching prospect though.
I had Martinez as the fourth best prospect on the list last year behind Shelby Miller, Zach Cox and an very high opinion of Matt Carpenter. Some of that was his lack of any stateside pitching prior to 2011. It’s hard to see Carlos Martinez not outranking everyone not named Miller on a 2012 FR prospect list, which Jeff and I are currently at work on.
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Super post, Azru! If Miller is better, and everything I’ve read suggests that he is, the Cards could well have a hell of a foundation with Garcia, Miller and Martinez anchoring the rotation. Not all that worried about Martinez’ size. Better a rail than a whale. See that as a possible problem for Lynn for instance. The video is remarkable.
It’s a really odd leg kick. Can’t remember ever seeing one like it. Does anyone have any comps? or is it something they are going to smooth out as he moves up through the system?
People on VEB were comparing it to Bob Gibson, but I never saw Gibson pitch so I cannot comment on that.
I did see Gibson pitch, and the violence of his motion was just amazing compared to the way most pitchers today do it. However, to my recollection (and by the time I was old enough to look at it carefully, Gibby was a shadow of his former self, so I may be wrong), one constant in the way he threw himself around the mound was that he was always under control, and always landed on his feet like a cat, ready to pounce on a ball back up the middle. That guy was an ATHLETE. Martinez doesn’t (yet) have that cat-like grace, nor the sense of immediate readiness to field the position.
Saw Gibson pitch frequently. Finished sort of like a man falling off a stack of boxes or some such. Most remarkable was his return to full-face balance. Felt that his follow through must have been intimidating to on-deck hitters. Gibson once brushed back McCovey when the latter was trying to time Gibson while waiting to bat.
Gibson didn’t have the leap off the mound towards home that C- Mart has. Might be because the mound is a little lower!!
Ah, crap. This is a left knee injury waiting to happen.
The best comp may be Tiger Woods’ original golf swing.
All the power and torque transmit through that locked left knee. He may feel it first in his lower back or groin (hip flexors, hip adductors, or lower abdominals), but the problem will be related to the double whammy of locking the left knee at full extension and then applying rotational forces to it.
It may even show up as a right shoulder injury, when he compensates for pain in the knee, hip, groin, or lower back by changing his arm action. At that point, the shoulder may become the primary problem, esp. if there’s an injury within the joint capsule. My guess, based on the unusual thickness of his arms for a guy his size, is that he has mature bone and rotator-cuff structure.
But nothing can compensate for the repetitive stress he’s putting on his left knee.
Aside from that, I suspect he’s going to be at higher than normal risk for a batted-ball injury. He’s defenseless for that crucial fraction of a second when the ball comes off the bat.
My thoughts exactly, and what I was trying to communicate in yesterday’s thread. You did a better job of it. Thanks.
I think this is “fixable,” if it comes to that, by backing off just a little bit, which he’ll want to do anyway if he becomes a starter. It does need to be fixed. Hopefully the team will keep him at whatever level has Dennis Martinez as pitching coach so he can work with the kid.
Sorry, I didn’t see your post on the other thread until after I posted here. We both saw the same potential problems.
I’m not sure I see what you see Lou. First off, I can’t tell that he’s locking out his knee (though he’s certainly liable too when he loses control). It looks to me like he’s just short of full extension. The second, and more importantly, the pivot looks to take place on his foot, not his knee. When you watch the side view toward the end of the video you’ll see he comes up off the heel of his foot when he falls towards his glove side. Again, if the mechanics aren’t repeatable, there may be increased risk from a slip but I don’t see the motion when executed as being a guaranteed injury.
@Lou Follow up question: Are you still concerned about the torque on the knee when he brings his heel up?
Tim, I went back to around 9:50 and tried to pause the video on every pitch to see if I could isolate a moment that settled the question. Sometimes it looks like he hits full knee extension and then rotates. Other times it looks like the knee is partially flexed. Maybe I’m slow with the pause button, or maybe his landing mechanics vary slightly from pitch to pitch.
For example, if you go to 10:12, you see one pitch that makes my point — the knee looks completely extended — followed by one that makes your point, where he appears to stop 15 degrees short of lockout.
So I got up in the middle of my office and tried to replicate his delivery. I’m so glad there’s no video record of me doing this.
You make a good point about the heel position. When I landed on my toes, even with the knee locked, I didn’t feel any tweak in the knee joint, and my knees tend to bark pretty loud when they don’t like something I do. Then again, when I tried to do the twirl thing at the end of the pitch, I felt things no guy ever wants to feel in the south-central sections of his anatomy. I think I proved that middle-aged chair-jockeys have no business trying to imitate 20-year-old athletes.
Also, at around 10:32 you see a sequence where the knee angle seems different on every pitch. There’s one where it seems fully locked and loaded, preceded and followed by others where there’s obvious flexion as he falls off to his glove side.
I wonder how much of this is difficulty in repeating mechanics versus the Cardinals trying to tweak aspects of his mechanics. Good observations though.
I think he is throwing different pitches here…the stiffer leg would allow him to come over the top on the curveball better. He definitely needs to make his landing more consistent, whichever way he feels more comfortable. It would help immensely with his control.
Having worked with a lot of kids on landing properly, I have to say this is a pretty common mechanical style. Especially with shorter pitchers. Martinez is basically landing on a stiffer leg than your 6’3″ beast and is levering his body over the top of that leg. I don’t think you want to correct it. Landing more consistently would help but if you try to get him to land softer he will have a harder time getting on top of that filthy curve.
Guys this is some of the easiest power I have ever seen a pitcher produce. From the wind-up through the release it doesn’t look like he is even trying. It is only on the follow thru you realize how much power he is producing off his back-side. The cure for a less violent follow-thru is throw softer…fuck that!
It isn’t “a guaranteed injury” when everything goes where it’s supposed to. The problem is that with that kind of instability and irreproducibility, a time will come when he doesn’t land it right (“right” for him, anyway), and that’s when things could go wrong, not to mention the problem Lou points out with being out of fielding position.
I’m not really seeing that knee locked in extension. I think he transfers weight on the plant leg fairly well to be honest. However, when that leg is locked in extension, that rotational torque doesn’t really occur at the knee joint itself, but rather the hip joint. At his current age, I would probably put him at a low risk for injury risk occurring due to his leg mechanics. As he ages and begins to lose hamstring flexibility and hip internal and external rotation, that injury risk will likely increase given how much he uses his legs in his pitching motion. I would hope the Cardinals training staff is intelligent enough to work on lower extremity flexibility with all of their players.
I love that follow-through. It bothers me when pitchers don’t adequately follow through on their pitches. Jake Westbrook is one that comes to mind off the top of my head who doesn’t follow through well. He is generally considered a durable pitcher, however has had TJ surgery.
Maybe when he’s 34, if he can still generate this kind of power. I think your completely underestimating the strenght this 19 year old kid possesses in those legs of his… and Tim Lincecum put more stress on his knee’s than Martinez, IMO.
Look at Lincecum at the point of complete knee extension: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnPFSDTU_ng
His center of gravity is much lower than Martinez’s. His landing point and balance mechanics are consistent from pitch to pitch. With a stride that long, the force would be largely dissipated by the time he straightens his front leg.
If you pause the Martinez video at 3:26, you see what I’m worried about. You see the high center of gravity, the straight left knee, and the beginning of the rotation.
Of course, as AZ points out, the knee isn’t always locked, and if his heel is slightly elevated, he can pivot on the toes, rather than transmitting all those forces through the knee joint. It’s almost like ballet, and ballerinas tend to have a low rate of knee injuries (although they have a high overall injury rate, mostly to feet, ankles, and hips).
The leg kick in the follow through reminds me of both Pedro Martinez and Jose Valverde.
If someone can clean the mechanics up a bit, he has top notch potential. All three pitches look like potential plus deliveries. I was most impressed with the curve, but the fastball is insane too.
With refined mechanics, I would bet the fastball will lose some juice. Luckily, he has some juice to lose on it.
The delivery remind of juan Marichal
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=le9FRXgYu1M&feature=related
I was think Francisco Rodriguez
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONiLfzdKQMI
Just exactly what I was going to post!!
Pedro and KRod do whip their back legs through pretty violently, but none of them seem to lock out their knees the way Carlos does at this point on his follow through. Hopefully they can refine that.
Looking at this video he appears to not repeat his exact delivery very well. He also doesn’t use is lower half very well which is consistent with me seeing him at Busch back in May. When he does have his delivery right the ball comes out of his hand very well and he looks great (though his delivery finish isn’t ideal). His FB, SL and CB is dynamite and if he has any kind of CH that is a scary 4 pitch arsenal. Also his FB has more movement in this video than when I saw him at Busch in May which is a good sign…I was concerned that his FB is a little too flat. All-in-all its nitpicking as he has dynamite stuff and as he matures and learns how to pitch and take care of the mental game he will have a chance to be quite special.
I believe our Mr. Duncan will have a few pointers for him. Will just have to see if he can be taught.
That and learning from guys like Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright should help him out as well.
Hey FutureRedBirds.net,
I just wanted to say a quick hello and say thanks for checking out Baseball Instinct.
To JC’s last point, I agree that there is still plenty of time for Martinez to smooth out his mechanics and fix some simple flaws which are unnecessary such as pulling his back leg all the way through.
His main problem right now isn’t his stuff. Based on stuff alone and having seen both Shelby and CMart on multiple occassions here in Jupiter, Martinez would be ranked ahead of Miller. But Shelby is already a calculating and confident pitcher with a real presence on the mound. While Martinez is just a pure animal at this point with little refinement. The refinement will come. Dennis Martinez is a great coach. They’ll smooth his mechanics out, remove some of the chaos and bring his changeup along. Half season more in the FSL and he’ll really become a pitcher.
I know it sounds crazy, but if the Cardinals need him for the bullpen in 2012 for a playoff run I have every confidence that this kid can get major league hitters out right now in short stints.
Again, thanks for bringing Baseball Instinct to light here on futureredbirds.net, I look forward to talking to you guys during the FSL season. Don’t hesitate to drop me an email if there’s anyone specific you want me to take a look at first hand.
Luhnow to Astros.
BJRains just retweeted someone else reporting it. Could this offseason get any more odd? Not surprised as I told Erik over twitter…no doubt former McKinsey consultant was really polished for interview. What should we expect next?
How awkward will the GM meetings be now…”Hi Walt.” “uh…Hi Jeff.” Cheers to Luhnow. He rebuilt the system. We won this year because cheap youth filled in for expensive replacement. And one could say closers are overvalued right now and Motte looks like a steal…hopefully Girsh or Sig get a chance to take over in STL.
Why “odd”? This is a combination of Houston realizing they have a problem and finding a very capable guy, and the Cardinals being willing to let him go — as is customary (although by no means universal) when one of a front office’s second tier is offered a chance to move up. Not odd, just an opportunity and a rising star to fill it. I’m glad Houston is moving out of the NL Central; watch how quickly he turns things around.
He’s leaving behind an organization that’s in very good shape. I’ll miss him, but the team will be just fine.
Not odd he got hired. Not surprising at all. His system worked. Strauss can make fun of us and his system all he wants…but fact is they saved money by using cheap players for normally expensive replacement level holes. BA had a stat that we had the most players of any team in the playoffs on our roster…drafted by our team.
My odd comment was more directed at all turnover in STL for the offseason. TLR quits, Pujols potentially leaves and now this. For a team not accustomed to major turnover…it has been an odd offseason.
Happy for Luhnow…hope he doesn’t raid his staff too much.
And happy they will be in the AL in a year.
The tweet got taken down not retracted yet. BJ Rains took his down too. Could have been bad info or shouldn’t ahve came out yet as the Astros just gave their interim GM the power to make trades.
Official now per Astros PR.
Luhnows employee appears to have let the cat out of the bag a little pre-mature. But it is confirmed per Allison Footer (Astros PR). Astros scrambling to put together press announcement now. Twitter is incredible. News just flys.
Think the PD today reported that it was unlikely that Luhnow would receive the job. Another unscoop. . . .
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/astros-hire-jeff-luhnow-as-general-manager.html
Luhnow is now the Astro’s GM, according to mlbtraderumors.
So Luhnow knows the Cardinals system as well as anyone. Who is he going to take from us? Pham to the Astros?
I’d be surprised. Pham still has considerable potential, but enough questions remain that I wouldn’t want him on the 25-man roster all season — as he would have to be if they keep him. When you’re rebuilding a bad team with a bad farm system, why incur a potential (I would even say probable) liability when you’ll have a chance at collecting the same guy a year later, with no strings attached, via minor-league free agency?
This just in: The Cardinals did NOT lose Pham in the Rule 5; indeed, they did not lose anyone in the major-league part of the draft. They did lose shortstop Domnit Bolivar in the AAA part of the draft. I have never seen Bolivar’s name on prospect lists, and his 2011 performance was nothing to write home about (.298/.333/.447 at Springfield). He’s clearly been bogarted by Jackson, although he’s young enough to still have some potential for growth.
They picked up outfielder Erik Komatsu from Seattle in the major-league draft, and LHP Barret Browning in the AAA draft. Komatsu was decent for half of 2011 (.294/.393/.416, 13 SB in 379 PA for Milwaukee’s AA team) and lousy for the other half (.234/.298/.297 for Washington’s AA team). He did play a lot of center field. Presumably he was acquired with the idea of being cheap insurance as a 5th outfielder to start the year, if Craig is late in getting back from surgery and Chambers becomes the right fielder _pro tempore_. I doubt if he’ll stick, but Rule 5 guys aren’t really expected to. Browning looks like a generic, break-glass-in-emergency LOOGY that they’ll probably stash in Memphis.
All told, I think they got more than they lost, although none of these moves are likely to mean much.
Wonder how Matt Adams feels this morning?
Like a million bucks
He has to be given a serious look in spring at 1B. Perhaps Lance will still be playing RF?
Doubtful. It depends on how long craig will be out.
Not a ton of options. I doubt our opening day RF is Adron Chambers.
What about Carpenter (maybe Cox later) at 3b and Freese to 1b with Berkman staying in RF?
Who would you trade for Hanley Ramirez?
How will replace that bat?
And with the 19th pick, STL selects …
Can’t go overslot anymore or risk a fine and if 10 percent over slot losing the first and second round pick the following year.
5 first rounders and no Lunhow….
They also have a chance for a lottery pick.
I thought that started in 2013? The lottery picks
Now that you mentioned it, I think you are right because teams can trade that pick if they choose so.