- Baseball Instinct is running their top 360 prospects and, yes, I’m extremely skeptical of anyone’s ability to rank 360 prospects. There’s Cardinals prospects in here though with notes on them that make for interesting reads. It’s a fun exercise but I wouldn’t worry about a 342 rank versus a 341 rank.
- Matt Adams did a Q&A with MiLB.com. Adams has a clear opening with the departure of Albert Pujols and a big year consistent with his previous efforts could help his chances at landing the 1B job in 2013.
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46 Responses to “Link Drop”
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Adams had a sore knee? Hope nothing that will stay with him going forward in his career. BTW, Luhnow hired away Sig Mejdal. That’s the one Luhnow guy in our organization that I thought we should not lose.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120103&content_id=26258260&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
The Cardinals were going to do an MRI but then they decided to wait until it starts bothering Adams again in Spring Training.
I kinda wonder about that thinking. If he needs to be scoped, you would want to have that done in the offseason and not at the start of ST. It must be very minor if they didn’t do the MRI.
considering the overall investment in a player
a $1200 mri seems, even for just a baseline, a trivial expense
Where is the info that the Cardinals are waiting until spring training to address Adam’s knee?
I guess the hardest thing about doing a top 360 is deciding how to compare players whose upside you are trying to project to players like Lynn and even Sanchez that have already had some success on the major league level. Since many, perhaps even the majority, of players on a list of 360 will never play in a major league ball park, I think I would place a higher value on it than baseball instinct seems to.
Actually, most of the 360 will play in the majors. Most just won’t do it for very long.
In an average draft year, about 6 or 7 draftees per team eventually get at least a cup of coffee. (The Cardinals’ farm system has been above average on this statistic for some time, btw.) Taking into account that a certain number of non-drafted free agents, notably from Latin America, also make it, it is reasonable to estimate that in any given year, 200 guys make it for the first time, integrating across all teams. Given that the top-360 list certainly has numerous names on it that were on in 2011 — and some in 2010 — it is quite clear that the large majority of those 360, and also some number of guys who didn’t make the list, will get their day in the sun.
Of course, there is a difference between “day in the sun” and “career.” Most won’t get that. But how many of us would turn down a chance to have been Shane Robinson or Brandon Dickson, or even Steve Hill, he of the 329 OPS+ in a one-game major-league career?
Didn’t the Cardinals have any deal in place with Luhnow when they let him go to the Astros about taking staff with him? I know Boston did with Epstein.
I think the mentality in baseball circles is not to get in the way of promotions for staff. The pay isn’t that great once you get past managers, vice presidents and a few elite coaches.
Correct … that is usually reserved for not taking someone to do the same job, not a promotion. i.e. Assistant GM hired to be Assistant GM
Epstein’s new job in Chicago is a promotion (president of baseball operations; Jed Hoyer is the general manager), but there were other issues with Epstein.
Epstein was still under contract with Boston when he took the job in Chicago, which meant Boston could insist that a compensation deal needed to be worked out. Boston made staff-raiding an issue in that agreement. I have no idea what Luhnow’s contract status was, but even if he was still under contract, it would have been unusual for an organization to block another organization from hiring people their new general manager trusts. That could generate all kinds of ill-will within a ballclub if prevented from moving to a new opportunity. Epstein came with strings attached because he was a high profile general manager, as opposed to a lower level (but important) executive.
It should be noted that while Chicago can’t add front office people from the Red Sox, Boston still lost Danny Haas to Baltimore just last month. http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7373604/source-chicago-cubs-hire-boston-red-sox-3-years
Az-
Would you be willing to post an article I am working on here. It is about something I call “ball effect” scouting and it is kinda theoretical. Basic premise is with the development of dopler radar, high speed video, and things like things like pitch FX has created the ability to measure the effect that professional players have on the ball and compare this to amateurs. Pitching of course is easy “stuff” is kinda the catch all term for this, but I actually think it potentially works for hitters too.
Send it to me and I’ll read it over. Can’t see why I wouldn’t publish it.
Pretty sure Shane was joking
I think 312 for Cleto is selling him pretty short.
I have to agree with you, Huge.
I guess I can see their reasoning, though. I mean on the surface he seems like your typical high velocity, no control pitcher. I believe it was seedlings to stars that had him in their top 100. Just a matter of opinion.
I’m just excited to see what he does in 2012. If he can show the same kind of improvement in ’12 that he did in ’11, we’re looking at a potential #2-#3 starter, in my opinion. When you can throw 98+ in the 7th inning of a game that you started, your other pitchers don’t have to be plus offerings. He has that plus plus fastball, so if he can get enough control of his offspeed pitches to make them average, he can be something special.
Disagree. Cleto doesn’t crack our top 10. 312 is pretty much everybody’s top 10. Since he projects out as a RH releif project, not sure why he would be higher.
I understand what you’re saying, Zuke. Obviously Cleto is an interesting case. The link above has Cleto at 312, but seedlingstostars.com has him at 85. It’s just a matter of opinion of whether you think he can continue to grow as a pitcher.
Here’s a quote from seedlingstostars on their opinions of what they believe Cleto can become:
“There’s an outside chance that Cleto becomes the NL’s Justin Verlander with this grade of heat, but the emphasis is on outside. Becoming Brandon Morrow–possibly complete with the early-career “starter or reliever?” drama–is more realistic, but the bullpen looms as a less desirable, and very possible, alternative.”
I’d say Cleto is on the cusp of becoming a top prospect in our organization. You’re always a little cautious when hoping a flame-throwing pitcher can find control of his pitches. But I think all of us would just like to see continued improvement in 2012. If that does occur, look for him to make a big impact somewhere on the big league club filling in for injuries.
I dismissed most of their post. That is a huge outside (not the front door … the country) chance.
Agree. Its where you see him going. Starting…Or releif.
Cleto runs the gamut from premier arm to “will he ever know where it’s going”. Admittedly, that’s the million dollar question. My glass half full mentality was very encouraged by the 3 league leap intraseason all the way to St Louis.
I’m not discouraged by his performance in St Louis which was admittedly mixed. Hey, who wouldn’t have expected him to be overly pumped. A little more seasoning and more work on his control is certainly in order. But, oh that arm.
I still think 312 fails to acknowledge the potential that is there. But, this year is critical. If he shows more promise, he still has starter possibilities. That would play to his durability and maximize his prospect status. If he struggles some this year, they need to begin to focus on his bullpen role.
Allegedly Swagerty, as a reliever, is ready now. That’s the most aggressive appraisal I’ve seen yet
I actually thought their appraisal of Swagerty was correct. However, our bullpen seems pretty set for the near future, so building up his innings to be a starter may still make sense unless we want to trade somebody.
But how deep is that bullpen?
If you don’t have to pull Lynn out to start, it seems pretty deep to me – not to mention other guys knocking on the door (Ottavino s/b a reliever, Reifer coming back from injury)
Supposedly Swagerty picked up velo when he went to the pen at the end of last season. With his offspeed stuff, he’ll be a load if he can bring it 94 out of the pen. McClellan has an injury history as does Ottavino and Reifer. Given Reifer’s injury was a knee you would think he can bounce back. I have no faith in Ottavino and his shoulder nor that McClellan really has anything left to contribute above replacement level with his hip issues. Cleto melted down in his three brief appearances with the big club last year. I’d hate to rely on him to make MLB relief appearances in 2012. I’d be surprise if they brought Shelby up to the big club to take a turn in the bullpen any time before September. I think Swagerty could contribute in 2012 if it were necessary. But this is a nice argument to be having. The Cards have lots of options in the bullpen from the right side making their way up the system. Swagerty has shot up the system and should catch the eye of Matheny, Papa Dunc, et alia in spring training 2012. Look forward to see how it unfolds.
I agree. I was just saying absent necessity, i think Swagerty probably stays on the SP devlopment route for at least another year.
That’s seems to be the questions with Swagerty. He’ll move fast as a reliever but needs innings as a starter. He was a reliever in college and has made all of 12 starts as a pro. I think he would have to go back to A ball as a starter. The Cards might be in “go for it” mode again this season with an aging core so it wouldn’t surprise me to see him in AA as the closer to start the season (putting him position to help the big club later in the season if problems arise from the right of the pen). I think most people probably hold your opinion that Swags will begin 2012 as a starter.
The Baseball Instinct list is now complete through 161. They have included so far the Cards #9 Lyons and #10 Swaggerty which means that the Cards will have 8 prospects in the top 160. Based upon Zuke’s analysis above of 30 teams the average should be 5 and a third, so 8 in the top 160 is pretty good.
I think you mean Lynn, not Lyons.
You are correct. Thanks.
sanchez and carpenter and tilson and cleto joined lynn and swagerty as cardinals on the list through 160. that gives us 6 prospects between 360 and 160, which is close to average if good prospects were randomly distributed.
(360-160)/30 teams = 6.67
you are probably right that we will see more cardinals distributed in the top 160 – miller, taveras, martinez, wong, adams, rosenthal, cox, and jenkins are probably still to appear, which would be better than random.
Interestingly 121-160 has no new Cardinals. Still I can’t imagine leaving any of those names out. Will be nice to see all of them even higher on the list.
I think they are just working right up their individual team lists which would indicate 8 Cardinal prospects in their top 120. Pretty good!!
Add Cox @ 113 and Adams @ 109 and we have 80 left. Could Rosenthal, Wong, Taveras, Miller, Martinez and Jenkins all fit into the top 80? That would suggest this organization has one of if not the top farm systems in MLB.
It is exciting to see how high they are on Jenkins and Rosenthal. If we can get two of our four elite starters to pair with Waino & Garcia, things will look very good in St. Louis.
Wow, based on today’s ranking though #41, Cards have 6 prospects in their top 50 (well, Wong is #53, so close enough). Wong, Jenkins, and Rosenthal with Tavares, Martinez, and Miller coming in the top 40 is pretty damn impressive. I don’t even think the Royals had that many top 50 prospects on most list last year, though they might have.
I was wondering if anyone can think of a time when we have had four pitching prospects like this in the system at the same time. There were a couple of years like 96 when we had Benes and Morris and 2000, Ankiel and Hutchinson. Although only going 1-4 on those prospects was quite disappointing.
But Miller, Martinez, Rosenthal and Jenkins really look like something to get excited about.
Toss in Swagerty and the upside possibilities of Cleto – if half of these guys come around, we are looking great for quite some time. It really is a shocking turnaround for the system.
Gotta admit that it was getting exciting to be pushing down that list, knowing there were 6 Cardinals unaccounted for and not getting to one of them until #53.
I am not surprised that someone was willing to go out on a limb for Rosenthal. I think his upside is huge. The best part about him may be his head. He’s come a long way since SS 3 years ago.
Why is everyone so sure Rosenthal is in the top 40? Lacking other info, I’d guess he’s not.
Indeed he’s not (final list now up at http://baseballinstinct.com/2012/01/09/baseball-instinct-360-top-prospects-40-to-1/ ). The reason for the expectations was that these lists have generally been based on the individual top-ten lists for franchises, and then “seeded” into 1-40, 41-80, etc., based on the writer’s perception of how the top guys from each team compare. Rosey had been as high as #5 on the Cardinals’ top-ten list, and #6 (Wong) didn’t show up until #53, so there was reason to think Rosey would be above him. He wasn’t. It isn’t clear whether that’s an omission, an admission that having him that high was erroneous to begin with, or just that the 360-man list was compiled by someone not as optimistic about him as the writer who did the team’s top ten.
Anyway, three in the top 40 is still a very good thing, and now Rosenthal has a chance to show that he’s being grossly underestimate by those unfamiliar with the system — again.
Rosenthal was above Wong – he was #43.
Correction: Somehow I had missed that Rosenthal IS in their list — at #43. So not in the 1-40 list, as I said, but still way, way up there. Their writers do agree with each other — and now it’s up to Rosey to demonstrate that this ranking is no fluke.
As Huge says above, that’s 6 Future Redbirds in the top 53 prospects. Things are looking good on the farm…
As noted by others, they rank Rosenthal virtually even with Jenkins – Rosenthal only one slot ahead at #43. These guys seem pretty sold on him (as am I) but admit that many will look at their ranking as aggressive. My opinion hasn’t changed in that I believe draft position bias still creeps in when folks consider Rosenthal – I think that is what generated the “aggressive” comment. I still say if he had been drafted in the 5th round, nobody would think such a ranking would be aggressive – JMO
I think the most exciting thing about their prospect list is that of the Cardinals top 10 only Lance Lynn is sure to graduate by experience off of that list for next season (Sanchez is not in their Top 10 for the Cards). Miller, Adams and Cox all potentially could get enough experience to come off the list for 2013, but probably not. Otherwise what is currently an outstanding Top 10 should be even stronger next year.