Future Redbirds 2012 Top 20: #15-#11
Posted on January 10th, 2012 by azruavatar in Prospect rankings
#15. Maikel Cleto
Stats
Amateur Free Agent
Ranked: jeff – 13, azruavatar – 15
Player Comments:
Any ranking of Maikel Cleto starts with: he can throw 100 MPH. That allows him to throw a changeup at 91 MPH and a slider at 85 MPH. Anytime you have those type of numbers on the radar gun, it is going to allow you more room for error. Cleto’s stuff is not the problem, it is his control. Cleto was bounced around to 4 different levels last year, he started at Palm Beach and pitched in the majors and everywhere in between. He would be benefit from a full season in Memphis this year to try and reduce his 5.43 BB/9 IP from the 13 games during his Memphis stop last year. - jeff
#14. Jordan Swagerty
Stats
2nd Round of 2010 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 14, azruavatar – 14
Player Comments:
Jordan Swagerty ranked at #13 on my person list last year and 17 on Future Redbirds official 2011 list. I remain at least curious as to what his final role in the organization will be: starter or reliever. For now, I’m simply happy that I got the relative 2011 rankings of Swagerty and teammate Seth Blair correct. Swagerty has an assortment of pitches and, while he was starting, he used them to excellent effects in both the Quad Cities and Palm Beach until he was, perplexingly, placed in relief. Despite having excellent command and a four-pitch repertoire, don’t mistake Swagerty for a finesse pitcher. This spot in the rankings is about two things: several high upside players leap-frogging him on the list and the uncertainty of whether he’ll start or finish games in the long term. Next year, I may look back at Swagerty and prospect #13 and realize I was had things backwards. - azruavatar
#13. Joe Kelly
Stats
3rd Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 17, azruavatar – 10
Player Comments:
Joe Kelly was bumped out of the FR top 10 prospects due to some fantastic up and comers and the fact that despite an improvement in his walk rate in Springfield, he still allowed more line drive contact which resulted in more hits and home runs allowed. (Smallish sample size alert) He is still a ground ball machine, but after half a season in Palm Beach and half in Springfield, he may be due for another year in AA to continue to work, but he still projects well to the majors. - jeff
#12. Ryan Jackson
Stats
5th Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 12, azruavatar – 12
Player Comments:
In 2010, Ryan Jackson started to garner attention for his steady, if unspectacular, offense that he combined with the best defense in the Cardinals minor league system. With soft hands, a strong arm and above average range, Jackson looks every bit the part of a shortstop. 2011 was much the same. After starting out very strong at the plate, Jackson’s numbers in Springfield faded to around league average. As a defense-first shortstop, league average offense is more than enough to supplement the value of a glove. Springfield’s park effects will cause some to question whether Jackson’s increased power production is a mirage but that misses the point. Jackson doesn’t have to be great offensively because, so far, he looks great defensively. The 2012 goal for Jackson is to supplant Pete Kozma at the top of the farm system depth chart for shortstop. - azruavatar
#11. Eduardo Sanchez
Stats
Amateur Free Agent
Ranked: jeff – 11, azruavatar – 13
Player Comments:
Eduardo Sanchez got great exposure in the majors last year and we saw why everyone thought so highly of him as he climbed through the minor league system. A very mysterious shoulder injury, however, derailed the back end of his promising first season in the majors. He was even worked with at closer early last year as the Cardinals struggled to find someone to fill that role. I think Sanchez still has closer upside, but the shoulder injury casts his ranking into a bit of doubt. - jeff
(Correction: Maikel Cleto’s draft status updated to reflect international signing. [azruavatar 07:44 01/11/12])
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Does sanchez make the team out of spring training? I still think he can use some work as he is vulnerable to lefties.
You may be right, but my guess is “yes”.
With Motte, Boggs, Lynn, McClellan, Salas and Sanchez, somebody has to be the odd man out.
Please let it be McClellan
except I like Lynn on the back end.
McClellan is the only one that profiles as the long man.
I like Lynn and Boggs as capable long men.
MLB TR cites Strauss as saying the Cards are looking at FA right hand relief pitchers. Speculates that the team will trade K-Mac.
Madson just signed with the reds. I can only see the cards going after a closer type.
It was nice to see that one game Sanchez pitched in after his injury, against the Astros the last week of the season. His stuff looked electric like it had before the injury.
Wait, was Cleto a non-drafted free agent, or an international FA? I know international signees aren’t drafted, but “non-drafted free agent” makes it sound like he was available for the draft and went undrafted, at least to my ear.
International. Born in the DR, first signed at age 17 (by the Mets).
For some reason I thought we got him in the Brendon Ryan deal with Seattle?
Correct. Cleto was first signed by the Mets, as I said. He went from them to Seattle in the J. J. Putz mega-trade (mega in terms of numbers of people moved, not significance…), settled in as about a #10 prospect for the Mariners for a couple of years, and then became the swag for Boog.
I spent some time digging on this. I had a hard time finding anything definitive about whether he was actually eligible for the draft. His wikipedia page has him described as a non-drafted but elsewhere I’ve read he was signed out of the DR. I’m not sure those are mutually exclusive either.
My understanding is that Puerto Rico is eligible for the draft. DR, Asia, mexico, etc. are not available through the draft. Sounds like international FA most likely
Cleto is quite clearly from the Dominican Republic (and is playing there this winter). I don’t see any way he would be anything but an international free agent (and by definition undrafted) assuming he didn’t move to the US, which there is no evidence that he did. Note that Oscar Taveras, who was definitely signed as an international free agent, is also listed as a “non-drafted free agent” on milb.com, exactly as Cleto is. I think we can put that one to bed.
That said, he’s a curiously hard guy to get good data about. I too “spent some time digging” on him, more than I should have, and there are … oddities. B-R, for example, lists him as having attended “Escuela Nocturna” in San Felipe, Venezuela — but there is no school by that name in San Felipe, and the term simply means “night school.” Was he playing baseball there prior to signing with the Mets, and attending night school somewhere to maintain the appearance of still being in high school or equivalent? Who knows? There are also mixed signals as to when he signed with the Mets. B-R and most other sources say August 2006, but I have seen at least one source claiming it was 2007 instead. I assume the latter is an error, but it’s hard to be sure.
I can’t find it now but there was another mention of Cleto as a undrafted free agent that also listed other signings (Sanchez, for instance) as an amateur free agent. It was a weird distinction and caught my attention when I was writing this.
In general, not just back to draft time, there is rather little information out there on Cleto.
The MLB draft of amateurs covers Canada and the US (including the US territory of Puerto Rico).
Players from the Dominican, Venezuela, and elsewhere are able to sign with any team. They enjoy a competitive labor market, not monopoly assignment to one team.
I know you can never have too much pitching, but I keep wondering if the Cardinals are going to reach a point in a year or so where they have to start dealing relievers. They’re going to be spilling out of the cupboard before we know it. Or do folks still think its a little premature to talk about this area of strength?
i’ve raised this issue before, but i don’t know that i’ve ever gotten a good answer to it.
is not the most likely explanation of kelly’s BABIP and HR rate at springfield some combination of bad luck in a small sample size and park factors in an extreme hitter’s park, rather than an actual issue with his performance and development?
the only real evidence of a skill/performance issue is his line drive rate which – while increased – was still only 20% (shelby miller’s was 19.2%). further, i don’t know that anyone has shown that such rates are terribly reliable at the minor league level or in that sample size. it may be that there’s just a stringer at springfield who’s more aggressive about calling balls in the air LD’s instead of FB’s.
if his performance is more likely a product of bad luck/bad park, why is there such souring on his prospects? if his K rate and BB rate are basically unchanged, shouldn’t we accept that he’s still a good pitching prospect? and this is not particularly directed at jeff, but at what i see as a collective downgrading of his prospects by lots of commenters here and elsewhere.
Is there any data available on Kelly’s ability to miss bats? Seems like, in the few times I have seen him, his lack of an out pitch allows hitters to stay alive until he makes a mistake. Reminds me of Boggs at the same stage of development.
You can get information like that here:
http://minorleaguecentral.com/player.php?pid=523260
Kelly’s fastball is electric. He just needed some adjustment time for AA. He suffered from an unlucky HR rate and BABIP. I expect him to adjust and do well this coming year.
It goes without saying that this system is doing very well when Cleto comes in at 15; I think the guy is going to have a very big 2012
I have to wonder… does this year’s 11-20 list compare favorably to one of those top 10 lists from the farm system’s low point?
I would think this year’s list 11-20 is overall better. Cleto is a top 100 on one list out there, and he’s #15 here (and I agree with that #15 within a spot or two).
It would be fun to see a direct comparison to a list from one of the really lean years. I’m not versed enough in the Cardinals’ farm history to make such a comparison though. I also assume the system is stronger right now than it has been in quite a long time.
I don’t think you will find anyone to take issue with your assumption. The future is bright – especially on the pitching front which will allow the organization to package some solid trades in the future as deemed necessary (to strengthen shortstop maybe?)
good point.
Minor league ball gives each player a grade. All put together by sickels.
2012… 13 As and Bs.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/10/19/2502022/st-louis-cardinals-top-20-prospects-for-2012
2011…9
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/12/13/1874041/st-louis-cardinals-top-20-prospects-for-2011
2010..7
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/12/12/1198166/st-louis-cardinals-top-20
2009…6
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/1/5/709221/st-louis-cardinals-top-20
Excellent visual of the improvement in the system!
Well done!
I should have realized that Minor League Ball would be a good place to look for some sort of objective grading. Thanks!
i seem to recall seeing someone compute team-wide “GPA’s” based on their top 20′s from minor league ball. i thought that was an interesting and intuitive way to break down the systems.
noted
Ah, a future article perhaps?
It really would be something if we could credibly say that this year’s 11-20 is as good or better than a previous year’s 1-10.
I’m a little shocked at your ranking of Jordan Swagerty after the tremendous year he had while rocketing up through 3 levels. I definitely have him in my top ten as do the other 6 prospect rankings I have seen so far. To each his own I guess. Keep up the great work otherwise.