#10. Lance Lynn
Stats
1st Round of 2008 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 10, azruavatar – 11
Player Comments:
Lance Lynn was impressive in 2011. The velocity gain that came from adjusted mechanics in the latter half of 2010 was legitimate. Lynn further showcased his talents with a major league stint in the pen where he became an important cog in throughout the playoffs. Lynn produced the best results of his career in the most critical time. There’s an argument that this ranking is low and it probably revolves around proximity to the majors versus a players pure upside. Lynn looked tremendous in 2011 and there’s no taking that away. Long term, he still looks more like a mid-rotation starter to me than anything else. - azruavatar
#9. Matt Carpenter
Stats
13th Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 9, azruavatar – 8
Player Comments:
Matt Carpenter continues his reign on Future Redbirds top 10 prospects due to his On Base Percentage. It is very telling that Carpenter had a 113 wOBA+ in Memphis last year despite turning over 50% of his batted balls into ground balls. He’s a 3rd baseman by trade, but his offensive profile it not exactly what you want out of a 3rd baseman as he doesn’t hit for enough power. However, his good hit tool and exceptional ability to get on base should get him to the majors soon. - jeff
#8. Zack Cox
Stats
1st Round of 2010 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 8, azruavatar – 9
Player Comments:
The difference between Zack Cox and Matt Carpenter is draft position. Zack Cox was not given a major league contract out of the draft because he was a long term projection. He received that contract because he was extremely polished and should require very little time in the minors. To date, Matt Carpenter has outperformed Cox by a healthy margin and unless the power from the early parts of Cox’s college career makes an unexpected return, these two players will be hard to differentiate in terms of production. Long term, Cox appears to be a high average hitter with modest plate discipline and moderate power. Probably not the star upside the Cardinals were hoping for when they signed him to a major league deal but certainly still a valuable prospect. - azruavatar
#7. Trevor Rosenthal
Stats
21st Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 7, azruavatar – 6
Player Comments:
In a system that is flush with high-upside arms, Rosenthal often gets a little lost, but certainly should not. He struck out 26% of batters faced this year in Quad Cities and entering his age 22 season, he still has a projection that is in the range of a 2 or 3 starter. That’s what keeps him outside of the top 5 but firmly in the top 10. - jeff
#6. Kolten Wong
Stats
1st Round of 2011 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 5, azruavatar – 7
Player Comments:
He does back-flips. He also plays a good defensive second base and has excellent bat control. After signing last season, he showed surprising power with the Quad Cities River Bandits. Did I mention that he can do backflips? Wong is clearly the best middle infield prospect in the system and would be the top prospect in other systems. Yes, you read that right. The Cardinals #6 prospect is better than other clubs #1 prospect. Sorry, Houston. - azruavatar
Entries (RSS)
So is Adams in the top 5 then??? Very interesting.
Great write-ups. And I LOVE the slap at Houston which is also a pat on the back for Wong. For a pick that engendered such controversy, I think Wong has silenced his detractors. Long may he continue to do so!!
I appreciate everyone’s efforts. I am one who thinks you have Lynn too low and Carpenter to high. I am not sold on Cox either, but the system will likely favor him. Lynn has considerable upside in the pen and is a surer bet to produce at the big league level. He showcased ability which even as a middle of the rotation starter or late inning reliever will produce more in my opinion than Carpenter.
puzzling
if lynn had a mechanical problem
why does it not get noted and adjustments recommended until he is in the majors?
it seems these kind of things should be evaluated immediately after singing in order to give ample time for adjustment and to enhance their value
what gives?
Why do professional golfers still have swing coaches? Shouldn’t they just fix all of their mechanical problems immediately upon turning pro? Why does Tiger or any other veteran golfer still identify and work on correcting mechanical issue? The same thing applies to pitching.
Also, to be fair I believe the problem was noted and the changes recommended in 2010 while he was still in AAA.
When was the last time the cardinals 6-10 prospects have had this much talent/potential?
so… who is left? Adams, Jenkins, Taveras, Martinez, Miller? Or some comparable order?
Thats my guess. Personally, I think you could make an argument to switch Taveras and Martinez, but I’m lower on CMart than a lot of people.
The argument could (easily) be made that Wong would be the number one prospect on all NL central teams save Pittsburgh
Sorry, all “other” NL central teams (i.e. not the cards, of course)
After Miller, Mesoraco is by far the best prospect in the division, IMO.
A few comments:
1. I don’t think that Lynn is ever going back to the rotation.
2. Cox was also given a ML contract because he was a draft-eligible sophmore and had leverage. It’s also a little difficult comparing Carpenter and Cox because of the age difference. Carp is 3.5 years older. In Carp’s first year, he was older and started at QC and finished at PB. Cox started in PB (and hit better than Carpenter there in Carp’s first year) and then jumped to AA — obviously, a big jump for a guy who played two years in college. For the second half of the year at AA, Cox had a .888 OPS (Carp had a .900 OPS there after being promoted in his second pro year). I’m not usually in favor of cutting up sample sizes, but in this context, we should expect some small adjustment period. In any event, we’ll know more about Cox next year. Hopefully he just tears up Springfield, assuming he starts there.
3. Interesting that Adams is ahead of Wong, given age, position, defense, and baserunning. Adams is over two years older. In Adams’ second pro year, he had a .392 wOBA (statcorner) at QC. In Wong’s first pro year at QC, Wong sported a .414 wOBA (in less than a full season, though).
Yeah I personally have Wong ahead of Adams also.
Shows how valuable Power is.
Oops didnt notice he used wOBA as his stat
I think there is a little mix up in the Cox/Carpenter discussion. Carpenter actually signed early enough to play the year he was drafted and wend to Batavia, QC, and PB that year in 2009. In his first full season in 2010 he was at PB to start and then finished the majority of the season at Springfield. Cox signed late in 2010 when he was drafted and played a few games in the GCL and then went to the AFL. He started his first full season in PB and then went up to Springfield in 2011. So, they both were basically in the same spot during their first full season.
I didn’t include Cox’s 15 or so PAs in the GCL or Carp’s 30 or so PAs at Batavia. But I would not say they started in the same place, at least experience-wise, in their first full year. Carp had almost 300 PAs in BAT, QC and PB in his first partial year (the vast majority in QC and PB).
Carp also has 2 extra years of college experience (though one was basically an injury year)
so……when it comes down to where they both played in their first full season……………….they both started that first full year at PB and finished at Springfield…………right???
Yes, still right, and still irrelevant to my original point.
Honestly its a breathe of fresh air to see arguments of who are 5th vs 6th/7th prospects are. In so many years past we haven’t had this much talent to debate of our prospects this far down the list. In fact the list that goes into the teens is very interesting and just shows we have a nice combination of depth and upside in the system. As a prospect nerd I am stoked!
I would have Adams at 7 and move Rosie and Wong up one spot each, but really, that’s splitting hairs
I think, barring injury, every player in our top 15 makes it to the majors at some point
Lastly, I hope, with one of our 6 top-100 picks, we select some real talent at catcher…system is sorely lacking in high upside catching talent
To be fair its really hard to have really high upside C’s in the minors. Many HS catchers that are drafted end up not sticking and high end college C’s go early in the draft where we rarely to never draft. Its similar to SS…very hard without having a Top 10 pick to get these guys. Obviously there are always those diamonds in the rough so its always possible.
# 5 would be an aggressive ranking for Matt Adams, but on the other hand, if the guy can hit 30 homers and drive in 100 runs in the majors doesn’t he belong there?! Even if it were only 20 dingers and 80rbi. That’s still better then Cox is projected to do. I like it!
Carpenter actually started his career at Batavia but was only there for about 10 games. I too disagree that he has outperformed Cox because of the age difference. I would like to see him make the Cards as a bench player this year with Cox at Memphis.
+1 Carp is equipped to be a utility player and I don’t see a good reason to keep him at Memphis another year. The Cards have invested their chips in Cox with a major league contract. The clock is ticking quickly on his shelf life. He should start the season in AAA @ 3b so we can find out what we have.
I started to write a retort about the lack of catchers in our system – I’m a big Cody Stanley fan – but there really isn’t anybody else to be excited about. There are guys that we hope develop – Robert Stock and Luis DeLaCruz were actually OK offensively in the pitcher-friendly FSL – but nobody we can really hang our hat on.
Perhaps the Texas league will bring Stock’s bat to life. If Stock is going to try and reestablish himself as a prospect, 2012 is the time.
See my posted a few above here. Most systems don’t have high upside C unless they get Top of the 1st Rd picks or traded for one. Its just not an easy position to get someone later in the draft that has extreme upside and will definitely stick at C.