#5. Matt Adams
Stats
23rd Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 6, azruavatar – 5
Player Comments:
Matt Adams can mash, there is no doubt about that. However, he strikes a bit of an odd offensive profile as a slugger that doesn’t walk very much, but instead hits for an over .300 average. Some also have concerns about his body and wonder whether he will be able to present any range at 1B or if he would be limited to DH duty. Adams skipped Palm Beach last year and didn’t miss a beat; he is ticketed for Memphis in 2012 and should make a play for 1B going forward. - jeff
#4. Oscar Taveras
Stats
Amateur Free Agent
Ranked: jeff – 3, azruavatar – 4
Player Comments:
The criticisms of Taveras’ game, namely those from Keith Law, have been a little inexplicable. Termed as having a “violent” swing, Taveras put up monster numbers in the pitcher friendly Midwest League as a 19 year old. The implication of the “violence” in the swing seems to be that Taveras will be unable to sustain it at higher levels. That is true as it is with almost any prospect. Taveras did not show significant weaknesses in 2011 with a good walk rate and a modest strikeout rate. If there is a criticism of his 2011 performance, it has to be on his batted ball profile and whether a .440 BABIP is sustainable; it’s not sustainable. Yet even if that number were regressed toward the mean, Oscar Taveras will still have had a fantastic 2011. He’s a good enough fielder to play center though he may be better suited for a corner position long term. This might be the highest upside position player the Cardinals have had in the system since Colby Rasmus. - azruavatar
#3. Tyrell Jenkins
Stats
1st Round of 2010 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 4, azruavatar – 3
Player Comments:
Jenkins is solidly the 3rd of the high upside starter triumvirate at the top of the Cardinals prospect, mostly because he has not gotten about short season Johnson City yet in his career, but he is just entering his age 19 season. Jenkins has plenty of time and the Cardinals are bringing him along slow. With very projectable mechanics and a top end starter’s ceiling, he is going to start to put up some numbers in the minors very soon. - jeff
#2. Carlos Martinez
Stats
Amateur Free Agent
Ranked: jeff – 2, azruavatar – 2
Player Comments:
Martinez was dominant in low-A living up to the hype during his first outings in the US. His slight frame and late season control issues are the only demerits on an otherwise good year. Martinez has the best stuff this side of Shelby Miller and is more advanced than Tyrell Jenkins. 2012 should be a consolidation year for Martinez who only pitched 80+ innings (18 starts) in 2011. Holding steady and not getting blasted when he arrives in Springfield, will be enough to maintain his prospect position. Well, that and a near 100mph fastball. - azruavatar
#1. Shelby Miller
Stats
1st Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 1, azruavatar – 1
Player Comments:
What is there left to say about Shelby Miller that hasn’t been said before? Every year that he continues to maintain his #1 starter ceiling as he gets closer and closer to the big leagues is a great year. He has some slight maturity issues that he should grow out of, but shouldn’t be in St. Louis any later than Opening Day 2013 barring injury. *knocks on wood* - jeff
Entries (RSS)
Once again guys, great job putting all this toghether. Really appreciate your efforts.
I’ll second that!! Is there any place where I can get a list of what certain abbreviations like BABIP and WIP and the like stand for? Didn’t have those back in the old days.
Danny-
This is a great place to start – lots of information:
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/
Much thank’s.
In my opinion, this ranking is too high for Adams. One could attempt to justify it on the basis of a very high ceiling to go with the high risk, but Springfield being the offensive pleasure palace that it is, it’s not clear to me yet that his ceiling is really as high as we’d like to believe. I’d move Wong into this spot (actually, probably to #4, dropping Jenkins a couple of notches). Rosenthal might also rank above my personal assessment of Adams.
Great body of work, though. The analyses are thoughtful and well presented. Thanks for pulling this together.
Hey Grunto<
Having seen Adams many times in Spfd, I have to interject that the Spfd park factors don't enter into it. I have seen Adams bat 35- 40 times. He has struck out 4 to 6 of those at bats, he popped up once, and every other rip was a total shot. I have seen him hit line drives over the short stops head that pinned the left fielder against the wall half a dozen times. The comments we read about Taveras are perhaps exponentially true about Adams.
My point is that park size and climate in Texas don't affect the ball as it comes off his bat. The other thing that I'll point out is that he hits rockets off the wall that you swear will be a single until you change your point of visual reference and catch him rounding first and exclaim, "That monster can really move!"
Agreed. The few times I’ve seen him running in videos he actually looks pretty spry.
Also, to Grunt’s point above, it’s not hard to adjust for home park – his wOBA* (which adjusts for home park) was .381 last year, down 11 points from his wOBA* in QC the year before. But his wOBAr (which adjusts for park and batted ball rates) was .398, up 10 points from the year before. These numbers aren’t gospel of course, but they give a pretty good indication that Adams moved up two levels and continued raking at about the same pace. In any event, I’d still have Adams below Wong, as Grunt says.
it seems like the difference between wong and adams is position/defense/build/record thusfar (favoring wong) v. proximity to the majors (favoring adams). favoring one over the other by a single spot seems like a pretty minor point and owes as much to personal preference as anything else.
That’s how I see it too. I think I’ll just walk around that mole hill. Six of one…
Isn’t Tyler Greene still a rookie? I expected to see him in the top 5 ! (;
Tyler has moved onto the list of mythic heroes with Lord Marti (ruler of the Caribbean underworld), Bo Hart (Mr. Memphis), and John Gall (the Korean destroyer). It’s an eternal list that transcends mere annual prospect rankings.
I actually expect Tyler Greene to finally be given an opportunity to prove that he can play at the major league level in 2012. Furcal will go to the DL sometime this year. It is an immutable law of the universe found in Einstein’s unpublished equations. TG will finally get his shot … if he stays healthy.
And who do we blame if he sturggles?
We blame TLR for running B Ryan out of town?….. haha
Don’t forget Cazana; he’ll be 40 years old and still being farmed out to play in Mexico. Lest we forget there is Prince Kozma who is well on his way to becoming King AAAA in another 5 years of playing in Memphis.
I’ll never forget what Kevin Goldstein said about Adams when he was on our podcast:
“I don’t know what you’re throwin’, but I’m swingin’!”
I’m a huge Adams fan, but even if you bumped someone else up from 6-10 to take his place in the top five, I’ll be danged if that’s not a pretty good top five.
I’m starting to think that the Palm Beach rotation will include Jenkins, Martinez and Rosenthal. Now that is some firepower! As I have stated before, I’m almost certain that Rosie is Rule 5 eligible after next season. Unless I’m smoking wacky weed and don’t know it, if he gets a decent output in the first half at PB, he will probably be first out to Springfield simply because they will need some AA evaluation before they either add him to the 40-man or wave goodbye – no way he isn’t snapped up in a Rule 5 draft. Jenkins may start in QC, but it seems highly unusual for a QC pitcher to get a ST invite – maybe someone can tell me if that conclusion is a bad one.
I’m still skeptical of Martinez and his ability to be a starter. This season should solve that riddle one way or another I would think. We’ll see if he can throw 120+ innings without getting tired.
Rule 5 eligible after this upcoming season? What am I missing?
You may be getting this from an out-of-date source, because a prominent one out there is indeed out of date. I quote from Baseball America’s description of Rule 5 at their web pages:
“Major league teams must protect players on their 40-man rosters within three or four years of their original signing. Those left unprotected are available to other teams as Rule 5 picks.
“Players who were 18 or younger on June 5 preceding the signing of their first contract must be protected after four minor league seasons. Players 19 and older must be protected after three seasons.”
Rosenthal’s birthday is the unfortunate May 29, 1990, so he’s just baaarely in that 19 and older category for the 2009 draft, when he was taken. However, the BA summary is out of date, with a year added to the commitment in 2006 after the web page was written, so that now eligibility starts after FOUR seasons for the guys 19+ when drafted. Under these rules, if his time with the GCL Cardinals in 2009 after getting drafted don’t count (as I believe to be correct), then he still has one more year to go. Confirmation of that point about the GCL half-year not counting would be valuable.
I do not believe Rosie’s time in the GCL matters, although I have no authority for this. 2 players selected in the Rule 5 draft this past year, Cesar Cabral and Marwin Gonzalez, fell into the 5 year service time provision of Rule 5. Both spent their 5th year (counting backwards) in the GCL and AZL respectively. Based on this logic, unless both players were designated for the Rule 5 draft, service time in the GCL counts towards the four or five year determination.
As a result, Rosie will be eligible for the draft this upcoming off-season, if not protected, which is HIGHLY unlikely.
I believe the rule is that short-season play doesn’t count. I could be mistaken, though.
Would like a definitive answer here, but I’m still pretty sure this season is it for Rosie – 40 man or we lose him.
Per Baseball America definition:
Players who were 18 or younger on June 5 preceding the signing of their first contract must be protected after four minor league seasons. Players 19 and older must be protected after three seasons.
Therefore, unless I have missed something, Rosie is definitely Rule 5 eligible after next season. This most certainly will be a factor in moving him to Springfield at some point next season absent poor performance.
You did miss something, and I already mentioned it above. (Don’t people read what I write?) The BA definition was written in 2002, as can be seen from the copyright notice at the bottom of the page. The rules changed in 2006 to add an extra year before Rule 5 kicks in. This is documented in quite a large number of places. I don’t know why the bogus BA page is still there.
Please provide your source. Here is another definition that is definitely current:
Players eligible to selection
——————————————————————————–
All players on reserve lists are eligible except players on the Retired, Disqualified, or Ineligible lists and shall be subject to Rule 5 draft selection in accordance with the following:
•If 18 years old or younger on the June 5 preceding the player’s original signing date, the player is subject to selection at the fifth Rule 5 Draft following the player’s signing date.
•If 19 years old or older on the June 5 preceding the player’s original signing date, the player is subject to selection at the fourth Rule 5 Draft following the player’s signing date. (If I could I would BOLD FOURTH)
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012
2012 is the fourth Rule 5 Draft after Rosenthal signed in 2009.
I can read perfectly well what you wrote…..I just see nothing that shows it is correct.
By the way, I’m not saying for sure you are wrong, but every place I look with a google search gets me the same definition above. So, if you can cut and paste the actual language you found, I would appreciate it.
Ok, I think I found it. A player that is 19 has to be with the organization for “four years”. So I guess the question revolves around whether the definition of “Year” is literal or means “a season”. And that is where the question is. If a “year” means 365 days, then he isn’t eligible until 2013.
I would expect to see Jenkins at QC though it isn’t set in stone. And … this isn’t just a gut guess on my part.
Agreed – Absolutely no reason to skip QC and go to PB. I would be surprised if he didn’t spend a majority of his time in 2012 at QC as well.
This was originally my expectation as well. Did Miller have a ST invite the year he pitched at QC? I’m pretty sure the answer is no. If my recollection is correct, then that would indicate that Jenkins is thought of more highly than Miller (doubtful) or that maybe they view him above QC. Nothing is perfectly apples to apples, but I think you can see what I’m getting at – something is out of synch with past experience – that’s all I’m saying.
Yes, Miller was at major league ST in 2010. Here is video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKvnVjw1nzo
But he was not an official NRI invite.
To clarify, both Miller and Freeman were in major league camp as “early invites” but the Cards madee it clear they were not NRI’s.
Ultimately, my point is that I wouldn’t read much into a spring training invite.
It seems like an honor and an indication of standing in the Organization’s prospects from my perspective. Seems like it would be a tea leaf in the old reading of tea leaves. If an invite is issued because they need an extra catcher or two, I get your point there. But on the pitching side it strikes me as significant.
Re: “Jenkins may start in QC, but it seems highly unusual for a QC pitcher to get a ST invite – maybe someone can tell me if that conclusion is a bad one.”
Rosenthal was headed to QC last year and had a ST invite.
Almost sure Rosenthal didnt have a Psring Training invite last year. What he had was an early camp invite. For what it that is worth — even Luis Mateus had one of those.
Perhaps so. But, for what it’s worth, he had a much more lasting impression at ST than Luis Mateus did.
Impression on who? how? As far as major league Spring Training goes, neither played in a game.
This is an odd comment. Rosie’s impression on the Cardinals during ST or maybe more properly EST during the ST period is not really up for debate. Why do you think he skipped Batavia and was named the opening day starter for QC? It wasn’t because he didn’t make an impression.
Why is this so odd?
First I thought we were talking about major league Spring training. I have no evidence either of them made any impression (or even participated) in that (do you?)
Do realize that Mateo opened the season as a 20 year old starter at High A and was the youngest position player to play at Palm Beach all year – and he is younger than Rosenthal (by a few days). So just maybe he made an impression also! Not that where any player start is a definitive indicator of the impression they made.
My point is that none of us know or have any clear indication as far as I can tell.
Note: I called “Mato” “Mateus” above by mistake.
CC,
If you follow the thread, even you said Rosie did not have a ST invite (as did I), so I’m not sure where you concluded anyone was talking about the major league camp. As far as Spring training is concerned, the minor leaguers are still in the same vicinity, just on the back fields from what I have been told; however, I have not been myself. If so, that makes “Spring Training” kind of a universal thing, but everyone understands the MLB guys group one place while the MiLB guys group another.
As far as making an impression, Mateo is not a pitcher. It’s kind of hard for a position player to garner a lot of attention unless they are just ripping the cover off of it. A pitcher on the other hand who strikes out 12 and is lighting up the radar gun will generally get some attantion. Another website named Rosenthal minor league pitcher of the day at least twice during spring training last year. I don’t recall seeing Mateo getting a minor league player of the day designation. That’s no slam on Mateo either.
There were a couple of first hand accounts that Rosenthal was lighting up the gun and garnering attention. For instance I know that Rosie struck out Cox all four times he faced him. You don’t seriously want to conclude that didn’t raise some eyebrows? Mateo may well have ripped the cover off the ball in ST, but I didn’t see any reports of it. Also, Mateo had been at QC in 2010, so moving to PB didn’t seem particularly aggressive even given his age and he has one more year of pro experience over Rosenthal even though they are the same age.
Being named the opening day starter on a staff that had a #1 draft choice (Blair), #2 (Swagerty) and a #7 (Ferrara) on it was a pretty clear indicator he impressed somebody. So, I will stick with my original comment.
The usual implied use of spring training invite is Non-roster Invite. So Koyie Hill signed a minor league contract and got an invitation to major league spring training camp as a non-roster invitee. Someone else in the minor leagues is going to be coming to spring training, but they wouldn’t be spending any time in the big league camp. Easy to see any type of confusion here.
Correct
Just curious to hear an opinion about how Adams compares to someone like Anthony Rizzo? Except for the higher batting average by Rizzo they put up similar numbers although Rizzo did his in AAA while Adams did his in AA
I absolutely love our system now, with all of the young arms and Taveras, Adams, Cox and Wong……
But, regarding lack of power guys, I follow the system pretty closely, and can’t think of one guy other than Adams. Besides him, do we have anyone who could possibly turn out to be a 30HR guy in the bigs? I’ve seen some projections of OTav turning into a 20HR guy with a 300 avg, which I’d stick in right or center any day of the week and in the 2 hole in the line up, but what about middle of the order guys?
Even in the draft this year, it seems as if we took a lot of guys like Tilson who could end up valuable, but no one with true power potential. With all of our picks in the first 100 this year (especially after EJax signs somewhere), I really am hoping we go for more “power potential” guys and keep with the trend of going for high upside guys.
They definitely need to go after a power bat in this upcoming draft
Really are lacking any kind of impact bats in our system, but if pitching is BPA you’ve got to take it. Especially with the premium on young pitching.
How many teams at all have multiple potential 30 HR guys? Only 24 players in the entire major league hit 30 or more HRs in 2011. I’m okay with one top prospect that has 30 HR potential. Although, I do agree with you that one thing our system is lacking is power hitting prospects.
ITs like SS.
Every system lacks power and Shortstops.
Best power hitters in the system (IMO) are: Steve Hill, Roberto De La Cruz, Jonathan Rodriguez, Xavier Scruggs, and Kyle Conley. All have some warts (in some cases, significant warts) but all “could” hit 30 homers – but probably only in the minor leagues. Of these guys, I think Jonathan Rodriguez is the most interesting – he had a higher wOBAr in QC than both Taveras and Wong. I had high hopes for Conley when drafted but injuries have stalled (or derailed) his development.
That’s exactly what I was looking for, thanks. Rodriguez had an awful batting average but his OBP was solid and it looks like he does have some power.
I guess if we have enough guys to hit 20 or so (Berkman, Holliday, Beltran, Freese, Craig) in the lineup, we don’t really need a major masher, but it’d sure be nice.
Something that could be fun is if we created an All-Star team out of minor leaguers that are only in the Cardinals system. I won’t use any players that have appeared in the Majors on my list. Here’s a stab at it:
Starters: Miller, Martinez, Rosenthal, Jenkins, Kelly
Relievers: Gast, Freeman, Reifer, Whiting, Wright, Blair
Closer: Swagerty
Starting Position Players: Stanley C, Adams 1B, Wong 2B, Cox 3B, Jackson SS, Taveras LF, Tilson CF, McElroy RF
Bench: Pham OF, Jeffries OF, Williams SS, Valera INF, Stock C
Lineup: Tilson, Wong, Taveras, Adams, Cox, Jackson, Stanley, McElroy
One thing that jumps out at me right away is that lineup is very lefty heavy. Another thing that really scares me is that Stock is probably my backup catcher. That’s definetaly an area that I’d like to see the Cardinals add a top 20 prospect in our system in the next draft if at all possible.
How would you construct your team if you couldn’t use any prospects with MLB experience (so no Sanchez, Lynn, Cruz, Anderson, etc.) ? How do you think this team would do against other team’s “All-Star Team?”
I’d put Taveras in right field
I almost did. But then I remember reading a report on McElroy (I believe it was on this very site) from his HS coach. His coach is a Cardinals fan and he said CJ has the potential to be a Brian Jordan type of player. I’ve read his defense is already very good even though he is very young. He is also extremely fast and can fly in the outfield.
Now that I’m thinking a little more about it, you could probably put McElroy in CF, making Tilson your LFer. That would make Tilson more of a Brett Gardner type in left. Not going to hit for much power but should steal plenty of bases and hit for a decent average.
I’d replace McElroy with either Anthony Garcia (.308/.407/.527 on a championship team at JC) or, for a real wild card, Amaury Capellan. He hit .305/.411/.481 in his age-18 season in the D.R., which is a very tough environment for hitters — teenagers using wood bats on big fields in a humid climate.
I’ve heard that Garcia isn’t a strong outfielder, and I have absolutely no clue about Capellan (who hits RH, FWIW), so I’d put them in left, leaving OT in right and Tilson in center.
McElroy, by comparison, had 18 hits in 23 games, only 3 of them for extra bases. He’s younger than both those guys, and getting his first taste of pro ball, so there’s some context to his disappointing numbers. But it’s clear he has a long, long way to go.
I’d replace Freeman with Daniel Miranda.
Has anyone else here read Jonathan Mayo’s picks and wondered how he keeps his job?!
Does anyone know anything more about Robelys Reyes or Amaury Capellan? Robelys tore up the DSL in 2011 and plays 2nd, he had an OPS over 1 with 22 steals and from the BR site his defense is playable. The only knock on him that I can see is that he was 20 which is a little old for there.
CMart came from there and I’m not expecting the hype out of these guys that he got, but I would assume both of these guys will at least be in JC this year right?
Sorry for all of the questions, but one last big one….. Why have I heard zero about us being interested in Yoenis Cespedes? How would we not be interested? I know we spent on Beltran and Furcal, but what about next year, and the years after that. That Albert money needs to go to somewhat of a long term solution as well.
Too much money, for an unkown. Cardinals cannot pay 60 million for someone they do not know whether or not he will hit in the Majors. Some Cubans transission go well, some don’t.
Exactly…he will get a pretty big yr and dollar figure. Jorge Soler is another guy to watch…not getting as much hype better some consider him to be a better long term player than Cespedes. He will come at probably half the cost or more but I still haven’t heard the Cards in on either.
Just to be clear, Rosenthal will be placed on the 40 man roster in December of 2012. After being 19 when he signed (July 2009), he has 4 years under club control. It doesn’t matter where he played the first few seasons. If this were the case, teams would leave high schoolers in short season for years. Knowing that they have 4 to 5 years, makes them push the better arms through the system. It’s only about the amount of years he plays in the system.
2009 (1) GCL
2010 (2) Johnson City
2011 (3) Quad Cities
2012 (4) Palm Beach/Springfield
Dec-2012…Will be placed on the 40 man roster
2013 (5) Springfield/Memphis (maybe a september call up)
2014..(6)Memphis/MLB
This would have him reaching the majors at around age 23/24
thus, going on the 40 before the 5th season. RCHIII is dead on. If he were 18 years old, he would go on the 40 in December of 2013.
I think people may be mixing some of the option “logic” in their thinking for the rule 5. I don’t have time to find the exact wording on this, but as an example Zach Cox did not burn an option year after he was signed to his MLB contract basically because he was assigned to the GCL for less than 10 days … or something like that. If he had signed an MLB contract the day after the draft and assigned to the GCL the next day, that would have counted as an option.
So you agree that “four years” means “four seasons – partial or not” – or stated another way it’s four calandar or partial calendar years. I appreciate that – of course, he has to perform to follow your projection, but I feel good that he will. It looks like your take is the same as mine, they have to get some AA evaluation as it strikes me as highly unlikely they will put him on the 40 man just based on High A. If he regresses or gets injured, they may well leave him unprotected. What I can say is that he is in terrific shape and is working exceptionally hard along with special diet, etc. I don’t see him breaking down – he’s a rock.
Well…it’s more in line with 4 rule 5 drafts.
Once he signs at 19, he goes through four Rule 5 drafts.
2009-Rule 5 Draft in December (1)
2010-Rule 5 Draft in December (2)
2011-Rule 5 Draft in December (3)
2012-Rule 5 Draft in December (4)
Remember the rule states “is subject to selection at the fourth Rule 5 Draft following the player’s signing date.”
He would be subject to selection AT THE FOURTH Rule 5 draft…so, he was 19 by June 5th in 2009…so he will be eligible eligible “AT THE FOURTH” rule 5 draft.
So, in essence…it’s not calendar years or seasons or partial…nevertheless, it’s how many rule 5 drafts go by to get him to the 4th one of his career….and this year will be his 4th…making him eligible since he was 19 when drafted.
I hope that helps!
This was my original position, but I think Grunt was saying the language changed in 2006 to simply say “four years” after signing, and I did find this:
Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft who are not on their major league organization’s 40-man roster and:
– were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for four years; or
– were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five years.
These exemption periods (one year longer than those in effect previously) went into effect as part of a new Collective Bargaining Agreement in October 2006.
Hence my infatuation with the definition of “years”…..if it is 365 days, then Grunt is right and he isn’t eligible until 2013.
As far as him maybe not going on the 40. With the combination of his arm/youth and status…he most likely would have to blow out his arm (knock on wood), to be kept off the roster.
You won’t typically find 22 year old pitchers that can throw consistently 95+ with command and 3 plus years experience, available in the Rule 5 draft. Most of those guys have made it to AA by then. So, even if he has a down year…they would most likely still protect him. Otherwise, a team will pluck him, throw him in the bullpen and let him come in and let it rip in non-pressure sitations. Now, if he was throwing 88-89 and or something…then who knows…But, if he keeps that velo and commmand, spends time at PB and then really struggles at AA and gets sent back to PB…I would still expect him to be protected, based off his pure stuff.
Remember, for $50K, a team takes him…brings him in, and if doesn’t work out, just send him back. Too much reward with very little risk for other clubs to NOT take him. I doubt the Cards risk that. They learned their lesson in years past by protecting Matt Schere over Perdomo.
Grabbing Rosie for $50K…would be peanuts to most teams and well worth the gamble with his status, stuff and age. He’s that good.
Yeah, we are on the same page.
I noticed that Carlos Martinez does is not a NRI to ST unlike the rest of the plethora of top pitching prospects (Miller, Rosenthal, Jenkins, Kelly). Should anything be read into this? Has Martinez been playing winter league and they just want to rest his arm before Minor League ST?
I don’t think Carlos has been playing winter league baseball.
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=stl