Before rolling out the 2012 Future Redbirds Top 20 prospects, I trolled everyone inadvertently with a compilation of the 2011 list. There was a lot of turnover from last year with nine players who appeared on the previous list failing to make this years. Who were they, and why did they go drop off?
The Graduates
#5. Allen Craig
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 9, Jeff Roman – 5, erik – 3
#12. Daniel Descalso
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 17, Jeff Roman – 12, erik – 11
Not much to explain with these two as they both surpassed 130 ABs in 2011. Allen Craig had a fine year and proved just how steady his bat is offensively. His conversion to the outfield has been mostly successful — we’ve certainly seen worse defense from outfielders before — and, assuming his surgery is successful, Craig should be an important cog as an outfield-first base fill supersub.
Descalso spent time at second and third starting off his time in the majors with some incredible defense that tapered off as the year continues. The defensive metrics weren’t terribly impressed with his performance (small sample size caveat) but Descalso should get the opportunity to fight Tyler Greene for playing time at second base in 2012.
The Bubble Prospects
#20. Steve Hill
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – N/A, Jeff Roman – 13, erik – N/A
#19. Deryk Hooker
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 14, Jeff Roman – N/A, erik – 19
#18. Adron Chambers
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – N/A, Jeff Roman – 11, erik – N/A
You’ve got three candidates that each had someone rank them in a discrepant way last year. It’s hard to point at any of these guys on the edge as huge misses or hits.
Steve Hill was coming off a 2010 performance where he hit for a .263 ISO as a part time catcher. He had increased his walk rate and power from 2009 after repeating at Springfield with the main deficiency being a defined defensive position. In 2011, he suffered a knee injury and collected just 163 PAs in the minors. Entering his age 27 season with no substantive amount of time in Memphis, it’s hard to see Hill making the majors much less having an impact.
Deryk Hooker was drafted out of high school and started playing for the Cardinals at age 18. In the low minors, he’d flash great results with high strikeout rates and, personally, I liked his stuff as a mid-rotation kind of player. He struggled in 2011 as he advanced to Springfield with the lack of a true out pitch hurt his strikeout rate and the park hurt his homerun rate. A year after being #19 he looks a little tarnished still needing to prove he can pass the Double-A test.
Jeff wrote about Adron Chambers here previously. He’s a player that looks like he can have a nice role as a back up centerfielder or sometimes starter bringing some incredible speed to the bases. With the similarly left-handed Jon Jay in center for the Cardinals, Chambers may be a better fit for another team.
The Catchers
#16. Cody Stanley
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 16, Jeff Roman – 18, erik – 15
#15. Bryan Anderson
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 12, Jeff Roman – N/A, erik – 13
2012 was one of the more upside oriented lists we’ve had for top prospects in part because the system is currently filled with high potential players that are still in the low minors. In 2011, both Bryan Anderson and Cody Stanley made the list on the merits of their position more than offensive potential. Anderson had a typically solid year for himself, hitting a little below average relative to the league and maintaining his sub-par defensive reputation. He’s so close to the majors at this point (and it seems like a new playing field with Mike Matheny as the manager) that he may finally get a chance to stick. Surprisingly, Anderson will be just 25 for the entirety of the 2012 season.
Stanley spent 2011 in Quad Cities and proved to be (mostly) what we thought he was: a better hitter than most catchers at his level and a legitimate defensive option behind the plate. For 2012, that wasn’t enough to crack the top 20.
The Gary Daley Candidate
#10. Seth Blair
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 19, Jeff Roman – 9, erik – 6
It’s not hard to figure out why Blair fell out of the rankings this year. He couldn’t stick in the rotation due to atrocious control and a soaring walk rate. My reservations about Blair last year had more to do with his stuff (which didn’t impress me in college from video or on paper) than with his control. Maybe last year was an aberration but a 6.83 BB/9IP rate is one heck of an aberration.
The “What Were You Thinking?” Guy
#14. Nick Longmire
Individual Rankings – azruavatar – 8, Jeff Roman – 19, erik – 18
Not much I can do but take my lumps on this one. Longmire still intrigues me — I’ve seen him play first hand in the Quad Cities — but in a more fix-er-up kind of way. His numbers (.287/.372/.483) in Batavia were great in 2010 but 2011′s time at Quad Cities was not so kind. His swing has holes and needs a great deal of work to cope with breaking pitches. I can’t justify a #8 ranking on my part other than to say that I missed, better luck next time.
Entries (RSS)
I still don’t get why so many are high on Anderson.
A weak defensive player is usually not a good option as your back up catcher. Is there really any team that looks offense first when evaluating the back stop? Unless Matheny and Lilliquest make a big departure from Dave Duncan’s philosphy, I really don’t see Anderson catching on. A change in manger does not change Anderson’s shortcommings.
Andrson seems to be a tweener. A little bit better offensivly than most catchers, but not enough power and not enough ability to make up for his catching ability.
Matheny likes Anderson; that’s the only reason I can see him winning a spot over Tony Cruz
I don’t know if I would read too much into that.
The quotes were very positive. But it was really more about him improving as a catcher rather than being a major league catcher.
I really just a battel between Cruz and Anderson. I see it as a battle between those 2, Hill and any number of journey men catchers who come available.
Seein how matheny was a great defensive catcher, worked with a pitching staff from a defensiver first position, I don’t see him leaning toward an offensive-first approach to his back up catcher.
Thing is…Matheny’s been a supporter of Anderson for a while now. He’s been talking up Anderson’s improved defense for more than a year.
A bigger factor might be Anderson’s option situation. Does anybody know where he is at?
Not sure, but I think he might have at least one left. We’ve heard about Greene being out of options, but not Anderson.
Matheny’s been working closely with Anderson since 2008, and he’s been a vocal supporter of him. So I’m pretty sure that has more to do with Anderson finally getting a real shot than anything else.
Fact is, Molina’s caddies haven’t always been stellar defensively. Laird was decent, but LaRue was roughly average according to most metrics. Bennett was well below average. All presumably had the semi-mythical ability to handle pitchers that seemed to matter to TLR, which may boil down to “they were old.”
All indications are that Anderson can out-hit that trio, and the bar for backup catcher defense in regards other than handling the pitching staff is not high. If he succeeds in convincing Manager Mike that he can work well with Waino, Garcia, etc. (let’s not bring Carp into the conversation…), he may still have a shot.
That was probably more Duncan’s philosophy. But then again, its pretty much all of baseball philosophy as well.
Once again, there is no such thing as a good defensive metric. Especially for catchers and especially for back up catchers. What metrick measures pitcher’s confidence?
I agree that Anderson can probably out hit most of the back ups in the majors. So can a lot of minor league players. Doesn’t mean they are good fits for a back-up catcher roll.
But you are spot on with your point. About convincing Mike and the staff. But remember, People alwasys wanted to blaim larussa becasue it was easier to do with that actually admit Anderson’s shortcommings. We already know that 2 starting pitchers do not care for Anderson’s work. So again, maybe anderson not being the back up catcher actually has more to do with his catchinga ability than who is the manager.
Um, why do we need a metric to measure a pitcher’s confidence? We don’t have a metric to measure a batter’s confidence. Does that mean we don’t have any good offensive metrics either?
Pitcher’s confidence in a catcher. Not pitchers confidence.
why is a backup catcher who’s limited on defense not a good option? he’s more useful as a pinch-hitter, he doesn’t completely duplicate molina’s skill-set, and if molina is actually injured during a game the cardinals will have all of four or five innings with a subpar defensive catcher as their only option.
to me this seems like a baseball tradition with no rational basis.
The rational basis has to do with a catcher’s primary job of handling pitchers, which tends to get mixed up with a catcher’s defense when people discuss it. A catcher who cannot call a game or at least handle pitchers properly is a big liability. A defensively limited catcher who can do those things, however, is fine as a back-up, especially if he’s got a bat.
because you generally don’t use a catcher to pinch hit.
Also, if a catcher is passable behind the plate and can hit, he probably wouldn’t be a back up.
But Forsh is right. Its really more about the pitchers being confortable with a catcher. If the guy is terrible and the pitchers don’t mind throwing to him, its not a big issue. But they have to have that confidence. Carpenter isgoing to risk putting a runner in scoring position, so he won’t throw a sharp curve in a crucial count if he doesn’t trust his catcher.
Problem is, if you are not a good catcher, pitchers won’t trust you. People want to blame larussa and overlook Anderson’s faults. But reality is, Lohse and Carpenter didn’t trust throwing to him.
Which brings us back to the point. The fact that LaRussa and Duncan are gone does not really improve Anderson’s chances. He is going to have to prove himself this spring.
Where is someone blaming LaRussa and simultaneously overlooking Anderson’s faults? I don’t see anyone that this characterization fits.
I think Zuke is referring to the notion that Anderson will get a chance with Matheny – a chance he didn’t get with TLR. That has been implied by several folks. The “blame” is about Anderson not getting a chance and Zuke believes it had more to do with the pitchers’ feedback (ie. “faults”) than anything. I don’t know if that is true, but I understand what he is saying.
Because its a statement of logic.
For instance, If it’s a person’s opinion that the only reason Anderson isn’t in the majors is becasue of LaRussa, then a person is overlooking Anderson’s faults. I mean honestly, could it be possible be that the the reason Anderson isn’t in the majors is becasue he hasn’t good enough?
I know that if I were an opposing team and I saw the cardinals underapprecaiting a good hitting major league catcher, I would have gone out of my way to make a trade for that guy. But that obviously hasn’t happened either.
So basicly, the fact that Anderson wasn’t in the majors isn’t becasue of LaRussa. But yet, people want to overlook Anderson’s shortcommings and simply say it was Tony. But in reality, now that Tony is gone, Anderson still has some big hurdles….
So lets look at it from a logical standpoint.
Facts:
1) Anderson is still a prospect
2) Anderson is not a great defensive Catcher
3) Anderson is still improving
4) Anderson needs playing time
1) The cards need a back-up catcher
2) Yadi plays alot
3) The back up catcher is looking at 250 innings/100 abs.
So, does it make sense to keep anderson in memphis playing, or bring him up to be a bad defensive-back up catcher. Even if we were to assume that Anderson keeps up a good hitting pace playing so little, we are talking about 8 hits in those 100 abs.
the overall point you’re pursuing (anderson is still improving and needs playing time, and won’t get it as a backup) only makes sense if you think anderson has a future as a starting catcher.
at this point, bryan anderson has 1100 plate appearances at AAA. he’s 25 years old. he’s probably learned what he’s going to learn. at this point, he looks an awful lot like a backup catcher going forward. in any event, his chances of becoming a starting catcher will not improve by staying at AAA for a FIFTH SEASON till he’s 26.
I agree with all this but I still don’t see anyone blatantly whitewashing Anderson’s record. No one is calling him a good defensive catcher. No one has said that TLR didn’t give him any chance.
It seems unreasonable to me to assume that a new manager doesn’t mean a second look/new chance of any kind for a player that was previously sent back to the minors especially considering Matheny has had kind words publicly about Anderson.
It reads to me like zuke is attacking an argument that I don’t see being made by anyone.
“No one has said that TLR didn’t give him any chance.”
I’m not going to filter through all the posts, but at the very least people have said “he will get a chance with Matheny” – the alternative meaning to that is “he didn’t get a chance with TLR”. If it hasn’t been “blatantly” said, IMO it has been implied all over the place.
I don’t really have an opinion on Anderson, but I feel pretty comfortable that many do believe Anderson didn’t get a chance with TLR – at least that has been my interpretation.
RCHIII,
Thanks. That is exactly the point I was going to make.
Tom,
I think Anderson was rushed along a bit becasue of his bat. I think that is why his option situation is important.
That’s your implication, not mine thank you. Azru’s point is that the idea of a new manager–especially one who has worked with the player in question and vocally supported the player’s ability for a couple of years now–giving Anderson a chance at a roster spot is unrelated to how LaRussa/Duncan handled him and is completely and totally about how Matheny has publically talked about Anderson and his ability to play at the major league level for about two years now.
Nobody has brought up or implied LaRussa except zuke. And I resent every conversation being dragged down to this level.
Brought down to this level? A discussion on baseball?
If you don’t beleive it was a LaRussa/Duncan issue, then what it is it you beleive kept him out of the majors?
I think people are reading into the Matheny’s comments. Those were made somthing like 2 years ago (spring training maybe) when he was a part time rover. Matheny as a part time rover was in a different capacity then his current postion as a manager of the major league team.
I also beleive there were a couple of pitchers on the staff that were also not confortable with Anderson.
I am just being honest. Anderson faces a tough climb to the major. Yes Matheny said some positive things about him a few years ago. But you still have to look at the context of those comments and it really doesn’t change the reality of the situation.
You said: “People want to blame larussa and overlook Anderson’s faults. But reality is, Lohse and Carpenter didn’t trust throwing to him.”
I never blamed LaRussa, so stop putting words in my mouth. Nobody in this thread blamed LaRussa and Duncan for Anderson’s lack of promotion; yet you jumped in and brushed off people’s opinions about Anderson’s chances with this old chestnut. I’m all for discussing baseball, but that isn’t it.
Anderson is an offense-first catcher, who still needed to work on his defense and learn to work at the level that major league pitchers have–which he has been with Matheny, who is now manager (it wasn’t just spring training). When Anderson had his call up in 2010, Duncan and Molina gave him a crash-course on the amount of scouting that Molina does at the major league level. It’s part of the learning curve.
Also, while you say that Matheny’s comments were something like “two years ago” (try before Anderson’s call-up) and therefore may be not valid today, you also forget that the last time Carpenter and Lohse threw to him also was a while ago. Players develop, Zuke, and Matheny, who has been working with Anderson as part of his job as minor league instructor, is more far familiar with Anderson’s development than the St. Louis pitchers.
You’re ignoring the fact that after Matheny’s hiring, suddenly Anderson has been part of the talk for back-up catcher come spring training, and that the organization has not gone out to sign a veteran back-up catcher despite many being available. That tells me more than anything else about the legitimacy of Anderson’s chances, especially when the new manager has been publicly outspoken about Anderson’s defensive capabilities and reportedly has continued to be an advocate within the organization.
And I don’t believe Memphis pitchers had issues with Anderson. I’ve never heard or read that anywhere.
obviously, somewhere there is a tipping point where acatcher’s offensive potential overwhelms his defensive limitations. i don’t know that anybody has an objectively measurable assessment of anderson’s defensive abilities (“poor” isn’t helpful; since value is a measure of degrees, you have to know how poor a catcher’s defense is), so this is a difficult conversation to have.
still, i don’t see why an offensive-first catcher – in the abstract – shouldn’t be considered for a backup spot.
Wasn’t Cruz a man without a position a few years ago whose bat was suppose to be ahead of his defense? Although Cruz may have better tools (arm). Anderson is actually the more experienced catcher. I would not be surprised to see the Cardinals bring in another journey man catcher to compete for the job, but Mo does seem to be pushing for promoting through the minor leagues.
Cruz was originally drafted as a third baseman, but started getting time behind the plate early in his minor-league career, and rapidly established a Molina-esque CS% (although it sagged somewhat in his last stay in Memphis). I believe, although I am not sure, that he’d done some catching at the juco level. Note that he wasn’t a highly regarded draft choice, going in the 25th round IIRC. For him to have come this far is admirable even if Anderson beats him out for the backup job.
Incidentally, apropos of Steven Hill and Cody Stanley, who are also mentioned in this top-20 list: according to mlb.com, the Cardinals have released names of NRIs for spring training, including those two. Others include pitchers Shelby Miller, John Gast, Joe Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal, Jordan Swagerty, Victor Marte, Nick Greenwood, Kevin Siegrist and Tyrell Jenkins; catchers Robert Stock and Luis de la Cruz; and infielders Kolten Wong, Matt Adams and Ryan Jackson, along with a couple of major-league retreads who were signed to minor-league contracts. I wouldn’t read too much into the long lists of pitchers and catchers — both are needed in abundance in the early days of ST, and most NRIs at those positions don’t stick around for long — but hoo boy, does that list of pitchers ever look juicy!
FWIW – When Cruz worked out for the Cardinals before the draft he did so as a catcher.
FWIW II Yadi and Cruz are very close – can’t hurt his chances.
Cario has a good point, backup catchers are kind of like backup QB’s in football. You usually want a guy that the starter likes, and has a similar style to him.
Agreed. Given the WS carryover, the loss of Pujols and the apperance of new young talent, this Spring Training may be one of the more interesting ones in quite some time.
Despite Strauss saying in his chat that he thought there was no chance, I think there is a reasonable chance that both Anderson and Cruz make the roster out of spring training. With either the platoon mate or the loser of 2b competition (Greene or Descalso) being the only IF backup at the moment, not counting Schu who is limited to 2b, the idea of having Cruz, who plays 3b and can play 2b on the roster is a good idea. Having both also allows you to use your catchers as pinch hitters and otherwise during games, whereas that seldom occurs when you only have one guy who can catch. Cruz and Anderson batting from the opposite side facilitates that also, and similarly faciltates when days off for Yadi can occur.
Having both in the majors, under Matheny’s observation and teaching, will help them currently and, in the event Yadi leaves after 2012, they will have that MLB experience for 2013 as, I presume they will try to help cover the catching position.
Lastly, by having both in the majors with Koyie Hill at 3A as a veteran also facilitates the rise of the younger catchers up through the system, as to being more blocked if either Anderson and Cruz and K Hill are the catchers at AAA. If both Anderson and Cruz are in the majors then Audry Perez can get time in 3A and the other minor league catchers move up accordingly.
The main problem with this plan is that Cruz and Anderson both hit like backup catchers and Cruz would not be a defensive upgrade or even good defensively in other roles. In other words, why would this arrangment (with both Anderson and Cruz making the ML roster) be better than having, say, Matt Carpenter on the roster? Carpenter is a much better hitter and infielder than either Cruz or Anderson.
i am a huge tony cruz fan, but i find the statement “Cruz, who plays 3b and can play 2b” hard to swallow. cruz certainly would fall behind freese, greene, descalso, and matt carpenter on a depth chart at third. he may have a role there, but mostly as extreme depth. i’m not sure that cruz has spent more than a few innings, if that, at second base. cruz is a second baseman in the same way david freese is a backup catcher.