This is the consolidated top 20 list rolled out last week.

#20. Boone Whiting
Stats
18th Round of 2010 Draft
Ranked: jeff – NA, azruavatar – 18
Player Comments:

Whiting is going to have to prove detractors wrong on an annual basis. There’s legitimate reasons to doubt him including the similarities to former prospects like Trey Hearne and P.J. Walters who carved up the low minors with command and a below average velocity fastball. Whiting has a little more speed on his fastball and he has a true out pitch with his change-up, something that I was never convinced of with Walters. Skepticism is warranted but Whiting’s combination of exceptional command, a fastball that gets over the 90mph mark (if barely) and a noteworthy changeup is enough to crack the top 20. -azruavatar

#19. Brandon Dickson
Stats
Undrafted Free Agent
Ranked: jeff – 18, azruavatar – NA
Player Comments:

Brandon Dickson is the definition of a low-ceiling, but he continues to rise in the ranks and continues to put up surprisingly good numbers at each stop despite less than fantastic stuff.  Last year in Memphis, he had a 19% strikeout rate to only a 5.5% walk rate.  He’s going into his age 27 season, so his prospect timer has just about dinged,  but Dickson could have great value in the major leagues as a back of the rotation innings-eating starter.  -jeff

#18. Tommy Pham
Stats
16th Round of 2006 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 20, azruavatar – 17
Player Comments:

Pham has been around, seemingly, forever but is just 24 years of age. He enticed analysts early with his athleticism and tools, which are still very apparent when watching him play, but finally started to make some noise two years ago in Spring Training. That carried over into a successful 2010 and 2011 though Hammon’s field tends to exacerbate power output and he was lucky on balls in play.  Injuries factored into 2010 but especially 2011 when he logged just 40 games prior to a wrist injury.  He’s improved his approach at the plate attributed to eye surgery he had in the offseason.  After 6 years in the system, prospect fatigue is setting in but Pham still has the capability of breaking out but he has to stay healthy to do so.  -azruavatar

#17. Charlie Tilson
Stats
2nd Round of 2011 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 15, azruavatar – 20
Player Comments:

Tilson is here for his projection more than anything else, having just been drafted last year.  He’s a speedy center-field prospect, who has the batting projection to become a starting center-fielder in the majors.  He’s more speed than power at this point, but the power projection is there.  After only 8 games this season in the minors after signing late, this year will be interesting for Tilson, both with where the Cardinals place him and how well he plays.  -jeff

#16. Adam Reifer
Stats
11th Round of 2007 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 16, azruavatar – 16
Player Comments:

In just his 5th appearance of 2011 on April 17th, Adam Reifer blew out his knee ending his season.  The primary difference between his early professional career and his more recent efforts had been improved command leading to fewer walks and fewer hits. The pure stuff was still good and should still be there: a mid-90s fastball with a wipeout slider. Reifer will have a prominent role in a bullpen (setup or closer) for 2012 and will, obviously, be looking to recapture 2010 while staying healthy.  With the exception of Eduardo Sanchez, Reifer is the most advanced and, arguably, best pure relief prospect left in the farm system. -azruavatar

#15. Maikel Cleto
Stats
Amateur Free Agent
Ranked: jeff – 13, azruavatar – 15
Player Comments:

Any ranking of Maikel Cleto starts with: he can throw 100 MPH.  That allows him to throw a changeup at 91 MPH and a slider at 85 MPH.  Anytime you have those type of numbers on the radar gun, it is going to allow you more room for error.  Cleto’s stuff is not the problem, it is his control.  Cleto was bounced around to 4 different levels last year, he started at Palm Beach and pitched in the majors and everywhere in between.  He would be benefit from a full season in Memphis this year to try and reduce his 5.43 BB/9 IP from the 13 games during his Memphis stop last year. - jeff

#14. Jordan Swagerty
Stats
2nd Round of 2010 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 14, azruavatar – 14
Player Comments:

Jordan Swagerty ranked at #13 on my person list last year and 17 on Future Redbirds official 2011 list. I remain at least curious as to what his final role in the organization will be: starter or reliever. For now, I’m simply happy that I got the relative 2011 rankings of Swagerty and teammate Seth Blair correct.  Swagerty has an assortment of pitches and, while he was starting, he used them to excellent effects in both the Quad Cities and Palm Beach until he was, perplexingly, placed in relief. Despite having excellent command and a four-pitch repertoire, don’t mistake Swagerty for a finesse pitcher.  This spot in the rankings is about two things: several high upside players leap-frogging him on the list and the uncertainty of whether he’ll start or finish games in the long term.  Next year, I may look back at Swagerty and prospect #13 and realize I was had things backwards.  - azruavatar

#13. Joe Kelly
Stats
3rd Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 17, azruavatar – 10
Player Comments:

Joe Kelly was bumped out of the FR top 10 prospects due to some fantastic up and comers and the fact that despite an improvement in his walk rate in Springfield, he still allowed more line drive contact which resulted in more hits and home runs allowed. (Smallish sample size alert)  He is still a ground ball machine, but after half a season in Palm Beach and half in Springfield, he may be due for another year in AA to continue to work, but he still projects well to the majors.  - jeff

#12. Ryan Jackson
Stats
5th Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 12, azruavatar – 12
Player Comments:

In 2010, Ryan Jackson started to garner attention for his steady, if unspectacular, offense that he combined with the best defense in the Cardinals minor league system.  With soft hands, a strong arm and above average range, Jackson looks every bit the part of a shortstop. 2011 was much the same. After starting out very strong at the plate, Jackson’s numbers in Springfield faded to around league average. As a defense-first shortstop, league average offense is more than enough to supplement the value of a glove.  Springfield’s park effects will cause some to question whether Jackson’s increased power production is a mirage but that misses the point. Jackson doesn’t have to be great offensively because, so far, he looks great defensively.  The 2012 goal for Jackson is to supplant Pete Kozma at the top of the farm system depth chart for shortstop. - azruavatar

#11. Eduardo Sanchez
Stats
Amateur Free Agent
Ranked: jeff – 11, azruavatar – 13
Player Comments:

Eduardo Sanchez got great exposure in the majors last year and we saw why everyone thought so highly of him as he climbed through the minor league system.  A very mysterious shoulder injury, however, derailed the back end of his promising first season in the majors.  He was even worked with at closer early last year as the Cardinals struggled to find someone to fill that role.  I think Sanchez still has closer upside, but the shoulder injury casts his ranking into a bit of doubt. - jeff

#10. Lance Lynn
Stats
1st Round of 2008 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 10, azruavatar – 11
Player Comments:

Lance Lynn was impressive in 2011. The velocity gain that came from adjusted mechanics in the latter half of 2010 was legitimate. Lynn further showcased his talents with a major league stint in the pen where he became an important cog in throughout the playoffs. Lynn produced the best results of his career in the most critical time. There’s an argument that this ranking is low and it probably revolves around proximity to the majors versus a players pure upside.  Lynn looked tremendous in 2011 and there’s no taking that away. Long term, he still looks more like a mid-rotation starter to me than anything else. - azruavatar

#9. Matt Carpenter
Stats
13th Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 9, azruavatar – 8
Player Comments:

Matt Carpenter continues his reign on Future Redbirds top 10 prospects due to his On Base Percentage.  It is very telling that Carpenter had a 113 wOBA+ in Memphis last year despite turning over 50% of his batted balls into ground balls.  He’s a 3rd baseman by trade, but his offensive profile it not exactly what you want out of a 3rd baseman as he doesn’t hit for enough power.  However, his good hit tool and exceptional ability to get on base should get him to the majors soon. - jeff

#8. Zack Cox
Stats
1st Round of 2010 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 8, azruavatar – 9
Player Comments:

The difference between Zack Cox and Matt Carpenter is draft position.  Zack Cox was not given a major league contract out of the draft because he was a long term projection. He received that contract because he was extremely polished and should require very little time in the minors. To date, Matt Carpenter has outperformed Cox by a healthy margin and unless the power from the early parts of Cox’s college career makes an unexpected return, these two players will be hard to differentiate in terms of production. Long term, Cox appears to be a high average hitter with modest plate discipline and moderate power. Probably not the star upside the Cardinals were hoping for when they signed him to a major league deal but certainly still a valuable prospect. - azruavatar

#7. Trevor Rosenthal
Stats
21st Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 7, azruavatar – 6
Player Comments:

In a system that is flush with high-upside arms, Rosenthal often gets a little lost, but certainly should not.  He struck out 26% of batters faced this year in Quad Cities and entering his age 22 season, he still has a projection that is in the range of a 2 or 3 starter.  That’s what keeps him outside of the top 5 but firmly in the top 10. - jeff

#6. Kolten Wong
Stats
1st Round of 2011 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 5, azruavatar – 7
Player Comments:

He does back-flips. He also plays a good defensive second base and has excellent bat control.  After signing last season, he showed surprising power with the Quad Cities River Bandits. Did I mention that he can do backflips? Wong is clearly the best middle infield prospect in the system and would be the top prospect in other systems. Yes, you read that right. The Cardinals #6 prospect is better than other clubs #1 prospect. Sorry, Houston.  - azruavatar

#5. Matt Adams
Stats
23rd Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 6, azruavatar – 5
Player Comments:

Matt Adams can mash, there is no doubt about that.  However, he strikes a bit of an odd offensive profile as a slugger that doesn’t walk very much, but instead hits for an over .300 average.  Some also have concerns about his body and wonder whether he will be able to present any range at 1B or if he would be limited to DH duty.  Adams skipped Palm Beach last year and didn’t miss a beat; he is ticketed for Memphis in 2012 and should make a play for 1B going forward. - jeff

#4. Oscar Taveras
Stats
Amateur Free Agent
Ranked: jeff – 3, azruavatar – 4
Player Comments:

The criticisms of Taveras’ game, namely those from Keith Law, have been a little inexplicable. Termed as having a “violent” swing, Taveras put up monster numbers in the pitcher friendly Midwest League as a 19 year old.  The implication of the “violence” in the swing seems to be that Taveras will be unable to sustain it at higher levels. That is true as it is with almost any prospect. Taveras did not show significant weaknesses in 2011 with a good walk rate and a modest strikeout rate. If there is a criticism of his 2011 performance, it has to be on his batted ball profile and whether a .440 BABIP is sustainable; it’s not sustainable. Yet even if that number were regressed toward the mean, Oscar Taveras will still have had a fantastic 2011. He’s a good enough fielder to play center though he may be better suited for a corner position long term.  This might be the highest upside position player the Cardinals have had in the system since Colby Rasmus. - azruavatar

#3. Tyrell Jenkins
Stats
1st Round of 2010 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 4, azruavatar – 3
Player Comments:

Jenkins is solidly the 3rd of the high upside starter triumvirate at the top of the Cardinals prospect, mostly because he has not gotten about short season Johnson City yet in his career, but he is just entering his age 19 season.  Jenkins has plenty of time and the Cardinals are bringing him along slow.  With very projectable mechanics and a top end starter’s ceiling, he is going to start to put up some numbers in the minors very soon. - jeff

#2. Carlos Martinez
Stats
Amateur Free Agent
Ranked: jeff – 2, azruavatar – 2
Player Comments:

Martinez was dominant in low-A living up to the hype during his first outings in the US. His slight frame and late season control issues are the only demerits on an otherwise good year.  Martinez has the best stuff this side of Shelby Miller and is more advanced than Tyrell Jenkins. 2012 should be a consolidation year for Martinez who only pitched 80+ innings (18 starts) in 2011. Holding steady and not getting blasted when he arrives in Springfield, will be enough to maintain his prospect position. Well, that and a near 100mph fastball. - azruavatar

#1. Shelby Miller
Stats
1st Round of 2009 Draft
Ranked: jeff – 1, azruavatar – 1
Player Comments:

What is there left to say about Shelby Miller that hasn’t been said before?  Every year that he continues to maintain his #1 starter ceiling as he gets closer and closer to the big leagues is a great year.  He has some slight maturity issues that he should grow out of, but shouldn’t be in St. Louis any later than Opening Day 2013 barring injury.  *knocks on wood* -  jeff

This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 18th, 2012 at 7:07 pm and is filed under Prospect rankings. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.