Catch Me If You Can
Posted on January 20th, 2012 by azruavatar in analysis, tags: Audry Perez, Bryan Anderson, cody stanley, Mike Matheny, robert stock, St. Louis Caridnals, Tony Cruz, Yadier MolinaThe Cardinals are approaching the end of what will be a nine-year relationship with catcher Yadier Molina barring an extension beyond 2012. Over that 9 year period, Molina will have earned something in the neighborhood of $25M according to Cot’s Contracts. It’s almost certain that Molina would have been a starting catcher on the merits of his defense alone but he has also proven a capable hitter at the plate.
From 2004-2011, Yadier Molina ranks 8th in Fangraphs’ WAR among catchers. This understates his talent though as defensive rankings for catchers are rudimentary. While other catchers are getting nearly full credit for their talent since they are offense first players (e.g. Jorge Posada), Yadier Molina doesn’t even crack the top 30 in wOBA over that time period. There’s a compelling rationale that Molina is a top 5 catcher during his MLB tenure.
The Cardinals have become accustomed in recent years to consistency in their backstop. Prior to Molina, now manager Mike Matheny was the primary catcher from 2000-2004. Matheny personified the Cardinals desire for a defensive catcher in spite of offensive shortcomings. Loved by his pitchers, Matheny was nothing short of anemic at the plate. Posting a .277 wOBA, about .055 points worse than league average or 3 wins below league average on offense, Matheny was still behind the plate for no less than 110 games each year.
It will have been 12 years since the Cardinals had their last “one year” catcher (Eli Marrero in a share time with Alberto Castillo) if Yadier Molina leaves as a free agent. A quick glance at the Future Redbirds Top 20 list shows exactly zero catchers make the rankings. Can the club fill this need from within or will they need to dip into the free agent market themselves?
The obvious replacement candidates internally are Bryan Anderson and Tony Cruz. The latter has the better defensive reputation and the former is better liked by most projection systems in terms of his offense. Given that the Cardinals have yet to sign a backup catcher free agent, both Anderson and Cruz will audition for the role in Spring Training. Whoever claims the role, and their subsequent performance during the season, could make inroads on the position for the following season. Both are projected for a better wOBA than Mike Matheny and much better wOBAs relative to the offensive environment of the league. Whether either can step into a full time role remains to be seen.
The farm system is thin, however, beyond the immediate depth. Steve Hill, a sometimes catcher, will be coming back from a major knee injury. Nick Derba has struggled at the plate badly despite ascending to Memphis. Travis Tartamella has faced similar travails on his way up to Springfield. Dominican product Luis de la Cruz has failed to distinguish himself from other low level catchers like Jonathan Keener or Geoffrey Klein.
The three most promising candidates for catcher are, in no particular order, Audry Perez, Robert Stock and Cody Stanley. Perez received some attention after landing in Keith Law’s top 10 Cardinal prospect lists. He’s shown good power during his professional career but has struggled badly against advanced breaking pitches. Perez will be 23 next season and Springfield seems a likely destination.
Robert Stock is the catcher that many are curious to see as a pitcher. Stock hit well at Johnson City in an abbreviated 2009 performance after he was drafted. The following year his performance would crater badly with Quad Cities and the questions about a Jason Motte-like conversion began again. Staying behind the plate in 2011, Stock struggled at the start of the season but showed some signs of life after an early promotion to Palm Beach where he posted a .339 OBP. Some of the luster with Stock is certainly his draft status (second round pick) but, fundamentally, he’s not as flawed as some critics would say.
The last player would be Cody Stanley who spent 2011 in the Quad Cities and accumulated a .264/.317/.425, which was actually a bit better than league average offense in the MWL. Stanley was noted for his athleticism coming into the draft, which I echoed later. The lack of obvious detriments — he can hit a little, defend home plate, handle a pitching staff, and is no slouch on the bases — is faint praise but also something that can’t be said about many other catchers in the Cardinals farm system.
If that reads like an unenthusiastic endorsement of the Cardinals backstops, it is. There’s no obvious standout or a high upside prospect in the low levels. 2013 is still a year off but the Cardinals may want to keep an eye on the free agent market if they are unable or unwilling to retain Yadier Molina’s services for the future.
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We drafted a nice prospect last year in Erlich (sorry about the spelling; I’m lazy and pressed for time.) What if the cyborg were to hit .300/.340/.460 ? Wouldn’t that seem at least plausible? He can hit. Anyone who has seen him regularly knows that. He isn’t without merit behind the plate, and if he were to fully recover from his knee injury, he would be ready as soon as next year.
I am not saying anything more than Hill could be a better hitting version of Ryan Doumit. You can’t debate that he could because we’re talking theory and possibility. The question becomes two-fold. Would the staff have an Adersonian reaction, and would 20 homers and 85 rbi’s make up for his obvious shortfalls?
Steven Hill will be 27 next March, and he’s played a grand total of 15 games at the AAA level over two seasons. The last time he hit .300 over a full season was 2007 when he was 22 and in rookie/A ball. While he does have a bat, I don’t think it’s enough to overcome his defensive limitations as seen by the Cardinals, who removed Hill from the 40-man after the 2010 season and haven’t returned him.
Ehrlich did not have a knee injury. Last year in the GCL he pulled a muscle in his back-but all is well now, reported a week ago and his strong and healthy.
I saw Stock once (small sample size). He had a strong arm and threw well, but he did not have a good day receiving and blocking. His promotion over Stanley to PB was a real head scratcher to me.
Too early for new Rasmus Hype?
Its too bad Aramis Garcia couldn’t have been signed.
I was a HUGE fan of the Aramis Garcia pick, and thought it was a real mistake not to get him signed. He’s got tremendous upside in my opinion, and I think he’ll improve his status hugely before he can be drafted again.
I like Stanley, but the guy I’m most interested in is Adam Ehrlich (mentioned by Lloyd). Based on his scouting reports, he sounds like a guy who could develop into a strong defensive starting catcher at the major league level with a decent bat.
One thing about Stock is that he’s been ridiculously unlucky on balls in play ever since he got out of JC. In his time in A/A+ ball from 2009-2011, his BABIP has been .252.
If we look at his 2011 season, combining his time in QC and PB, his wOBAr (adjustsed for batted ball rates and park) was .359 (statcorner), which is pretty good. And his BB% was +10%.
He also just turned 22, and will be 22 all next year. I don’t think we should be giving up on this guy yet.
His draft position and bonus guarantee that…….and he is definitely still young. I hope what I said wasn’t taken as any support to giving up on him – I just thought Stanley was the one who deserved that call up. The flip side from what I heard was that the QC pitching staff was happy that Stanley stayed behind…..
I was just addressing a general sense of malaise about Stock’s prospect status because of his offensive numbers. His babip has been so low that it requires attention to put his offensive performance in context
Stock’s peripherals are actually quite good last year – his bb/k ratio was > 1 (1.05) last year. In comparison, Stanley, who is a year older, had a .29 bb/k ration (not bueno).
goodness, I should proofread before hitting submit.
I hope all of this is an invalid conversation and we resign Yadi to a 3 or 4 year extension and give Ehrlich or someone time to develop fully.
Agree, but think the tea leaves are not good about a Yadi re-up. If Albert has an OK year and maintains his credibility, I think it likely he will lobby for Molina’s ascendancy to Angel bucks heaven.. . .and win again.
Exceptionally well done overview, azru.
Interesting, what you say, RCH, about Stock’s blocking/receiving, as he managed to get through the 2011 season without a *single* passed ball. Yes, it was only a 58-game sample, but that’s still a fairly remarkable achievement. (Robert’s fellow Palm Beach backstops combined for 17 PB’s in 100 games.)
As for Yadi, and a contract extension, I think the 3 highest-paid catchers for 2011 were Mauer ($23M), Posada ($13M), and Brian McCann ($6.7M). So an offer of 4-5 years, at roughly $9M per annum, should look pretty sweet to Yadi & his agent, given the context of catcher salaries in general.
I’m glad a couple guys mentioned Adam Ehrlich; his defensive reputation was quite good coming out of high school, and his bat wasn’t overmatched in the GCL. Let’s not forget his teammate, either—Luis Perez continued to show good contact skills in 2011, and flashed some real power, too (e.g. more than 40% of his hits went for extra bases). Good pop + few K’s = very intriguing batsman.;)
Like I said, the sample size of one game that I saw Stock is small. I’m not sure he had any passed balls that night either, but several definitely made their way to the backstop that I didn’t think should have. So, I guess to have a meaningful number you want to look at WP’s along with PB’s. (I don’t know where to find this info without going game by game) To be honest, a passed ball should only happen when the catcher and pitcher get crossed – so that stat is really kind of meaningless to me. Show me he blocked more balls in the dirt than his competition, then I’m on your side. His problems with receiving the day I saw him may have had to do with unfamiliarity with the pitcher, but several good pitches went for balls because he couldn’t smoothly frame. Like I said, it may have just been a bad day.
I hope for Yadi to be resigned, but I would also like to see Elander come to us in the draft. Just an early wish list, that includes Fried,Correa,Williams,Russell, and Winker. Even 3 of those would be very nice!
Two words….STRYKER TRAHAN
Not many people think he will last till our pick
I like him too, but would probably take Fried,Correa,or Russell first,thought maybe Erlander in second or third round.By then Trahan will defiitely be gone.
Something to think about: Tony Cruz seemed to meet with general approval as a Molina caddy this year, but would he fit on the 2012 top-20 list if eligible? He had too many plate appearances to qualify (72), but I don’t think he’d have made the list, even though he appears to be a viable major-league catching option, if not a Molina-caliber star.
He was eligible. The cutoff was 130 ABs (rookie status) ignoring service time. He didn’t make the list.
Didn’t the Cards sign Koyie Hill to compete for backup catcher?
The Cardinals signed Hill to a minor league deal. He’s more of a safety net in case both Anderson and Cruz flunk out of spring training.
Who are the other FA catchers in 13?
per cot’s:
Koyie Hill
Chris Iannetta *
Russell Martin
Jeff Mathis
Brian McCann *
Miguel Montero
Mike Napoli
Wil Nieves
Miguel Olivo *
Ronny Paulino
A.J. Pierzynski
Humberto Quintero
David Ross
Carlos Ruiz *
Yorvit Torrealba
if we can’t re-sign molina, either martin or montero would be excellent signings. i’m inclined to think that napoli stays in the AL, likely with texas.
I’ve seen Olivo up close – mark him off……talk about passed balls….I’ve never seen so many whiffs by a pro catcher…….I don’t care what his offensive numbers are, they can’t be high enough.
Agreed. Watched him here in KC for too long (two years was too long, yes.)
Thanks for the research. . . Cards already have Hill. . . .a major source of comfort for the Minor Leagues. . .
FYI – to answer a question raised in another thread, anderson should have two more option years left. he got PA’s in 2010 while larue was on the DL, but otherwise has never been called up (at least as far as i can see).
i am pleased to see the club give the backup time to anderson or cruz, because it’s time to find out what they have to offer (even if i doubt either is likely a molina replacement).
i continue to be slightly more optimistic on robert stock (catcher edition) than some. he’s had two consecutive seasons of very good plate discipline (11.1% and 10.5% BB rates), even if his overall offensive performance has been weak. i’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, given his success in the cape cod league. cody stanley looks credible to me as well, although i have little faith that either will be a starting catcher in the majors. i have a hard time seeing derba (no bat), hill (no glove), or audry perez (5 walks in 243 PAs) as any kind of catching prospect.
i would guess right now that the options for 2013 and beyond at catcher go something like:
1) extend molina (40%)
2) sign a long-term free agent catcher (30%)
3) anderson/cruz take over indefinitely (10%)
4) get a stopgap one-year catcher, wait for stanley/stock (10%)
gah. make long-term FA catcher a 40% probability.
maths.
As mentioned below, Anderson also used an option in 2011 when sent to the minors even though he wasn’t called up during the year.
1. I would like it if Yadi resigned but something tells me that is NOT in the Cards (pun intended).
2. Not interested in Martin. Montero does interest me.
3. I would suggest that after it is determined that Yadi won’t resign and Yadi rejects arbitration, they make a full court press on the Orioles for Wieters. Offer the farm. By the end of the 2012 season the Cards will be choking with depth and should be able to do something extreme like 5 for 1 for Wieters.
4. I can’t recall if it Az or Carioca who likes Juan Castillo, but I don’t see him discussed in the article above. Does he have a long term future at the major league level?
Of everyone on this list, Stanley intrigues me the most, for what may be a silly reason: He’s been the starting catcher on 2 championship teams in his 2 years in our system.
I’ve never seen him play, and don’t know how much credit the starting catcher should get for a team’s success at those levels. (We all ascribe a lot of the Cards’ success at the MLB level to Yadi, but I don’t know how it’s viewed in the minors.) QC had a really good defense last season. They were last in the league in hits allowed, giving up 50 fewer hits over the season than Dayton, which had the lowest team ERA. Again, no idea how much credit to assign a guy who caught 80 games.
That said, he’s a year older than Stock, and a level behind him on the depth chart, which probably says more about his chances than the success of the teams he’s played on.
Stanley was recently a member of Rosenthal’s wedding party. I think that at least speaks partially to the question of whether his pitchers think well of him.
A couple of the starters in QC were complementary last year when I asked them about Stanley. I think it helped that they had both thrown to him in JC too.
Stanley is a better hitter than Stock and better bet to reach the majors.
Anderson has used at least 2 options. He was probably already on an option when called up in 2010. If not, it was still an option year when sent back down. He also was optioned in 2011. The question I have is was he on option in 2009? If so, he would now be out of options.
There is still Matt Pagnozzi who is now with Cleveland if we don’t sign Yadi before next year.
Assuming we fall out of playoff contention and Yadier is asking for a ridiculous amount of money, should the Cardinals consider seeing what they can get for him? The Tigers could offer up Jacob Turner with Victor Martinez out for the year.
I doubt we fall out of contention. This scenario also assumes the Tigers (without Martinez) are in contention. Even then, Yadi probably wont merit draft compensation under the new CBA if traded during the season so his value will be less than it would have been in previous years and wouldn’t net us a Jacob Turner. I’d say it is either now or never to trade him.
Victor Martinez is not the catcher for the Tigers. They have Alex Avila at catcher, who was worth 5.5 WAR last year, and so have no need for a catcher. Playing either Avila or Molina at DH feels like a huge waste.
I don’t see why Cody Stanley can’t be a league-average major league backstop in a couple of years. As was indicated by azru, he isn’t exceptional at any one thing, but he has no major deficiencies either. What’s wrong with that? A league-average, cost-controlled catcher; yes, please.
So is catcher currently the weakest position in the Cardinals minor league system?
Doesn’t look like it to me. I’d say either SS or 1B. It is not certain to me that there is a single major-league shortstop in the system, with all due respect to Ryan Jackson; he’ll have to show he can hit major-league pitching before I accord him that honor, and while last year was promising, he’s not there yet. As for 1B, yes, I know, Matt Adams blah blah blah. However, the offensive bar for being a useful major-league first baseman is incredibly high. Adams can (and did) outhit anyone else on the Springfield team and still not be certain to reach that bar in the majors, and I don’t see much behind him.
At catcher, there are enough “marginal” prospects that the chances are reasonable that one can step up and reach adequate production, at least for the position. I don’t see that as true at SS and 1B; in those cases, it’s kind of a one-and-done situation, and both of the hot prospects who constitute that “one” come with significant question marks.
Third and second, on the other hand …
That’s a glass half empty approach. Unlike catcher, at least we have 2 guys identified, one each at SS and one at 1B who we project as possible starters in the majors. Moreover, at 1B we have 3 candidates on the current team who could play the position without a hiccup. Berkman will possibly be gone next year but the Cards can still put Craig or Freese at 1B. You yourself admit that 3B doesn’t seem to be a problem.
If worrying really helps, I suppose we can consider the SS issue somewhat tenuous but for about 2 1/2 years now Jackson has looked solid advancing @ short.
Don’t get me wrong: I really hope Jackson can hit in the bigs, and I think there’s reasonable evidence that he can. However, the “one each at SS and … 1B” is kinda my point. If either Jackson or Adams don’t pan out, it’s a long wait for the next viable prospect at their positions. There is no comparably high-ceiling catcher, but enough guys are in the queue that the chances of someone stepping up are reasonably good.
Yeah, but there’s pretty much zero promising starting candidates at catcher in the system. At least SS and 1B have one legit guy each, and 1B also is a position that tends to be filled with hitting prospects or players who can no longer field their other other positions.
When the ceilings of your top prospects at a position are at back-up, I would call that “weakest.”
I would also suggest that 1b is a postion waiting for Holliday as he gets older.
I would agree that at 1st base does seem weak outside of Adams, although it seems that in the long run anyone that can hit is a candidate for that position.
And at short stop, Ryan Jackson is at least further along than any of the catching prospects–who also haven’t shown that they can hit major league pitching, although arguably the bar for catcher’s hitting is even lower than that of SS.
There does not appear to be a whole lot to get excited about at catcher though.
FWIW, mlb.com has Matt Adams #6 on its top 10 list of first-base prospects.
Cox is #10 on the list for third base, Wong is #3 at second, and Miller is the #2 RHP.
I assume OT just missed the list for outfielders.
We didn’t have anyone listed at catcher, shortstop, or LHP.
Apparently Taveras missed by a lot since he isn’t in their top 100 and a lot of outfielders not in the top 10 are on it.
Meaning the list sucks (IMO) – all other lists I have seen have OT in the top 50.
Agreed
A thought on Anderson….
Anderson may simply be on the Posada developmental curve. Jorge Posada was an offense-first catcher who broke into the majors at age 25, serving as Joe Girardi’s back-up, after playing 306 games at AAA Columbus. The following season, he was the starter. Posada was never really known for his defense, especially early in his career, and he had to gain the trust of the Yankees pitchers, which he did, especially from Andy Pettitte.
Will Anderson follow a similar track? We really have no idea, because (a) there’s a new manager who has been an organizational advocate for Anderson in the past and (b) Anderson hasn’t had much opportunity to work with the major league staff yet. He’s going to get the opportunity in Spring Training to win the back-up job, and that’s pretty much all we know at this point.
One thing, however…Anderson, like Posada in 1997, is age 25 and has played 306 games at AAA Memphis.
That is a good point.
Since Catching is a veteran prefered positions, I wonder if it is more common than Posada. I wonder how many other catchers were a later blooming starter.
You mention Posada, but the guy who comes to my mind is Darren Daulton. Now of course he is bat crap crazy, but I blaim taht on the Ray Lankford play:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUWZ9DN4TfQ