Comments on: Early Round Pitching Draft Picks Paying Dividends

By: zuke354

zuke354 — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 18:28:16 +0000

Agree.

Thanks for the link.

By: Forsch31

Forsch31 — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 17:17:22 +0000

With two discs that are degenerating, Oswalt is much less sure an inning eater than either Wainwright or Carpenter.

By: Forsch31

Forsch31 — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 17:14:42 +0000

All stats are flawed in some way. However, FIP, which is actually designed for pitchers, is a far more accurate stat than ERA to evalute and project pitchers. FIP doesn’t call them “lucky.” It’s designed to eliminate fielding from a pitcher’s effectiveness, so you can evaluate a pitcher’s individual skills on what he actually controls directly in his performance (such as walks and strikeouts). BABIP includes several things that the defense influences, which is one of my issues with it.

If you’re going to evaluate and project a player’s possible performance, which is necessary in player development and roster management, you need statistics that are designed primarily for evaluation rather than results measurement. FIP does that, which is why Greg Maddux’s career FIP is 3.26.

FIP has flaws, which some other stats have attempted to deal with (like xFIP and tRA). Click here for a good article on the value of those statistics and how accurate they are in predicting future performance: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-well-can-we-predict-era/

By: Gruntosaurus

Gruntosaurus — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 16:14:28 +0000

This isn’t about quality of pitchers, it’s about the tactical moves of having them start and dealing with the consequences. Lynn is obviously useful in long relief/setup, and there is reason to wonder whether he would lose effectiveness if asked to start. K-Mac, well … he is what he is. Last year suggests that if used in moderation, he’s roughly as effective (or ineffective) as a starter as he is as a reliever. Between this fact and the relative sizes of the holes he or Lynn would leave in the pen, I agree with PJ’s rank ordering.

I would actually suspect that AT THIS TIME, Miller still ranks below a couple of other guys as a break-glass-in-emergency major-league starter — certainly Boggs, maybe Scrabble, conceivably Brandon Dickson. None of those guys will be as good as Shelby going forward, but at least until mid-June, I see any of them as at least as likely to be pressed into the rotation as he is. After that, assuming Shelby continues to blow minor leaguers away, things change.

By: VolsnCards5

VolsnCards5 — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:35:03 +0000

oh gosh…please lynn>kmac

By: PJ

PJ — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:04:22 +0000

I would think that at this point Shelby is about 8th in line. We have our 5 starters. Next up would be KMac. Then Lance Lynn. Then SMiller

By: VolsnCards5

VolsnCards5 — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:02:12 +0000

this is a good point

i say we go to a 6 man rotation…it gives oswalt, carp, and Waino extra time off…and cuts down on the number of starts westbrook makes

By: VolsnCards5

VolsnCards5 — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 14:58:42 +0000

everyone always forgets about Rosie….its cool though, thats the way he likes it.

By: zuke354

zuke354 — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 14:55:20 +0000

Agree.

But I am not sure I like the idea of Lynn as a starter right now. I like him in the position he is in on a contending team. If the cards were rebuilding, I would move him to starter.

By: zuke354

zuke354 — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 14:53:46 +0000

You are missing the point.

I also think Oswalt would out permor him. If they can get him signed while not keeping everybody happy, then I am 100% for it. However, its just as simple as moving a guy to the bullpen.

But you are making a huge and obvious assumption.

“Oswalt will top that if he stays healthy” Why are you assuming that? That is not likely.

With the cards actually having a good staff (Carp, Wainright, Loshe, Garcia), I am more willing to take a more sure inning eater with Carp’s workload and wainright comming back from injury.

Plus, I don’t see want the cards to start screwing over FA players for a pitcher with obvious back issues.