Just a curious Friday question for you. If you were General Manager of the Cardinals and you were discussing the parameters of a trade, which would include prospects, are there any prospects you would consider untouchable? The details:
- You’re trading for a good not great player. Someone around 4 WAR like a Chris Young or a Peter Bourjos who is under contract (or team control) for 2 years.
- It’s a straight prospect for MLB player trade.
- The opposing team wants the package to be centered around a single prospect with some other lesser prospects added in too.
- The team keeps asking for a better prospect in return as you slowly move up your person top 10 list.
When do you say enough is enough? Who would be an untouchable prospect for you in any realistic trade scenario? My personal answer after the jump but I’m curious about just how protective we are of our prospects as a group.
I’d have a really hard time moving any of my top four prospects in a scenario like this. Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, Tyrell Jenkins and Oscar Taveras would all be off limits. I’d be pretty hesitant with Matt Adams, Kolten Wong and Trevor Rosenthal but would probably make the trade.
Entries (RSS)
Untouchable for a player like Young
1) Miller
2) CMart
3) Taveras
4) Wong
Preferables for a player like Young
1) Zach Cox
2) Matt Carpenter
3) Cleto
4) Seth Blair
Would probably make the deal but wouldn’t feel as good about it
1) Jenkins
2) Matt Adams
3) Rosenthal
4) Swaggerty
I think miller and maybe taveras are my only untouchables.
8 WAR out of CF over the next two seasons is a hell of a lot of value
Miller, Martinez, and Tavares are the only true untouchables. Even Tavares would be movable in the right deal (think Andrew McCutcheon).
For a Chris Young type, I wouldn’t trade Adams or Jenkins either. I would think their value is a bit higher at this point. Or, In Jenkins case, may be a bit higher in a year or 2.
I think I’m with Az on this one. Miller is almost untouchable in any trade scenario for me – we would have to get blown away by an offer for me to consider him, Martinez and Taveras are a notch below, but I wouldn’t do it in the scenario presented above. Jenkins is getting closer – I like him but he seems to be so far from a finished product that I would get tempted to go with the bird in hand, but he’s probably still a no. I’d really hate to lose Adams, Wong or Rosenthal, but I would begrudgingly make the right deal for them. I would happily ship Cox or Carpenter in this scenario (not that I don’t like them, but they are the guys that I think we can most afford to lose in the system).
I still feel that we should trade Martinez when his value is high…he scares me (hope i’m wrong)
Getting 8 WAR out of CF over the next two years would make us favorites in the NL, IMHO. I think thats worth trading a good/great prospect.
I was just thinking about this last night.
Martinez is the #1 trade chip for the org. We need to get a new Catcher, CF, and potentially a power hitting corner infielder. Even with CMart gone the pitching depth would allow us to build off a rotation core of Wainwright, Miller, and Garcia (pray he stays healthy).
I actually think the Angels match up. Peter Bourjos, is expendable with Trout, and Morales, who is also expendable for obviously painful reasons. You could really start to have some fun if you think Yadi would walk and were willing to trade him.
I’m with you on Martinez. He’s got a huge ceiling but with his frame and struggle to finish off last season, it seems like there are some serious red flags for someone ranked as high as he is by scouting services. I think he could be awesome, but if he were the centerpiece of a trade, I wouldn’t automatically look at it as a loss.
I agree wholeheartedly, I think he’s overrated and expendable.
Miller, and Martinez are untouchable for me. When Matt cain will get over 17 million a year, pitching is just too expensive for the cardinals to ever get any quality as a free agent. Even if Martinez never makes it, he’s worth it just for the chances of having such a valuable piece for cheap. Taveras is near untouchable for me because we just do not have very many impact bats. The only other person I would be cautious about is Jenkins, just because I think his value will go up in quad cities and palm beach, that would be when we good get top dollar for Jenkins.
the price of FA pitchers is a good point, but FA 4 WAR, CF are also expensive
I would trade any prospect except Miller, Martinez & Wong
One thing that would matter greatly to me is whether this deal was done in isolation, or as part of an all-in, win-now move that guts the system in an attempt to bring in not just one strong major leaguer, but several, and thereby win a division. If the former, I’d be willing to trade any pitcher but Miller and maybe Martinez, as long as none of the others got moved later. Among position prospects, I’d put Wong and Taveras off limits, but would discuss others.
If, on the other hand, it’s the start of a win-now process, I’d be much more protective. At the minimum, Rosenthal and Jenkins would join my list of untouchable pitchers, and Adams and maybe Jackson would also be off limits. Who they’re being traded for also matters. I wouldn’t move any of these guys to get Young, and probably would add Swagerty and even Cox to the list if he was the target. For Bourjos, the shorter list of untouchables would be appropriate.
Jay, at 26, was worth 1.3 bWAR, including 1.7 oWAR and -.04 dWAR.
That makes a 4-WAR CF worth 2.7 WAR more than the guy he’d be replacing.
Also worth considering is what the new guy brings that Jay doesn’t have. If we’re talking about Bourjos, who brings speed and defensive value (1.4 dWAR), I might value him a little more just because he has things the team needs. OTOH, we’d be giving up ~20 points of OBP and adding ~40 strikeouts. So his ultimate value is highly contingent on whether we have someone on the team who can replace Jay’s .350 career OBP.
All that said, if we’re talking about a straight-up trade of a prospect for Bourjos, knowing what we know now, I’d go ahead and buy those wins with any prospect other than Miller or Taveras.
I’d be reluctant to give up Wong or Adams, simply because the team can reasonably project those guys to fill positions we know will be open. But they wouldn’t be deal breakers.
I like Martinez and Jenkins just fine, but I think they’re too far away to project them as impact MLB players. If I’m wrong in trading one of them, it’ll be years before my mistake comes back to hurt me, and I hope that by then the guy I traded for has given the team enough value to justify the risk.
It should be noted that not everyone is super-high on Bourjos as a first-rate CF going forward. Baseball Prospectus gives an “upside by year” forecast for him that really isn’t a significant improvement on Jon Jay’s. His only real attraction is that he’s younger, by enough to matter but not enough to be huge. So not everyone is convinced. This lack of consensus is one reason why my willingness to trade top prospects is less than some.
Andrew McCutchen, now … for THAT guy I’d be willing to part with any farm hand but Shelby, and hope that Pittsburgh is dumb enough to say yes.
All good points, and I’m with you on McCutchen.
I like Bourjos the games I have seen him…but I wouldn’t go straight up for Martinez for him. The Angels do possess other surplus talent at some positions that would line-up for a package with the birds.
For me to deem someone untouchable for this deal (or any deal), it would be a combination of 3 factors: 1) prospect rank, 2) fielding position, and 3) how far down in the system they are.
Because of 1), I would make Miller, CMart, Oscar, Tyrell, Wong, and Adams untouchable for this deal
Because of 2), I would actually make Ryan Jackson untouchable for the deal (sounds kind of silly, but it is a luxury we can afford with a deep system in general – i.e. we can offer lots of other similarly-valued prospects)
Because of 3) I would put Rosenthal into untouchable status too. Jenkins and Wong and Taveras and CMart of course also fall into 3) too. My reasoning being on guys like Rosenthal is not that they are necessarily too high of a prospect, but that I would think I could sell higher later (yes, I know they could bomb too, but I’d just rather deal someone closer to the bigs)
My goal in a deal like this would be to structure something around a Matt Carpenter (other team probably unlikely to go for that though), or perhaps Lynn or Sanchez (mostly because of my faith in our organizational depth in RH relief prospects). But my number one choice to deal would be Cox.
I know that none of these guys are guaranteed future stardom. But, I’d have to be incredibly pressed to be willing to trade any of Miller, Martinez, Jenkins, Rosenthal, Wong or Taveras. As much as I have hated facing Dan Haren the past six or seven years, or as often as I’ve wondered what our rotation would have looked like with him on it, I simply wouldn’t part with any of these. Their promise is what makes free agency such a viable market for the Cards. All these minimum wage players percolating thru our system for the next six to eight years makes FA’s affordable. Moreover, unless we are solving our SS shortfall with a trade, Jackson comes off the table as well. Only because I see Craig as a viable 1B solution beyond 2012, does Matt Adams not stand in lockstep with the rest of those prospects.
No, none of them are guaranteed to succeed. But the promise is too real to be willing to part with them for 2 years of “pretty good”. Even if two of the four starter prospects don’t work out, I don’t feel comfortable guessing which ones would. The cost to find out, at this stage, is nothing more than minimum wage. With the serious talent still on our farm, if that can’t buy the need, then it’s too expensive. I’d keep what I’ve got.
This is a very good point. If you modified AZ’s premise to have Mo going after a better-than-average shortstop (say if Furcal suffered a career-ending injury — somebody like, say, Stephen Drew if he’s healthy, which is doubtful), then I’d have Jackson on the OK-to-trade list in a heartbeat, obviously, but would simultaneously be much more reluctant to trade Taveras than if the swag for trading him was going to be another outfielder.
the interesting thing is that if you look at the raw numbers from victor wang, it’s probably irrational to value ANY of these guys more than a 4 WAR addition to CF (at least in the abstract).
because of the enormous bust rate with pitching prospects, even a top-notch prospect like miller only supplies about $15m in surplus value (and there is very little drop off in value through the top 75, suggesting that valuing miller significantly more than martinez or jenkins is unfounded). a top 10 position player is worth about $36m, and a top 100 position player is worth about $23-$25m.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/3/777412/al-west-farm-system-values
therefore, from a pure value perspective, we should be most protective of taveras and wong and perhaps even adams in trades.
in the crudest reckoning, a 4 WAR CF is worth $18m a year (4 WAR * $4.5m/WAR). thus, a talent like bourjos would be worth about $36m above replacement value before he even became arb eligible, if you assume he’s a 4 WAR guy. young would have significantly less surplus value, since he gets paid $7m this year and $8.5m next, with an $11.5m option for 2014. still, if you picked up the option, that’s $26m in surplus value over three years.
now, in the actual case of the cardinals, these trades make less sense, because we are not replacing replacement value players. we already have a holliday, jay, craig, beltran outfield through 2013. so, you’re talking more about something like a 2 win upgrade per year with these guys (that’s a very subjective assessment, i recognize). still, a major league minimum upgrade like bourjos is pretty substantial, especially over 5 years of club control (young makes less sense from this perspective).
and i don’t deny that wang’s numbers are a mere jumping off point. there’s nothing wrong with looking at shelby and saying that he looks, to all appearances, to be at the very high end of value for pitching prospects (or, conversely, saying that matt adams looks less like a sure thing than . still, it’s interesting that our instincts mostly lead to protecting what research would tend to indicate is the least valuable part of our top 10 – our pitching prospects.
personally, despite all the research going the other way, i really like miller, so i’d say miller, wong, and taveras.
once again….you read my mind
I agree a lot with your assessment. In our hearts we all say pitching is key because having a good staff is crucial to being competitive. Many think we can supply the major league club with 4 and 5 starters much cheaper than Lohse and Westbrook. What many fail to realize is that pitchers are less certain to realize their top end projections. What if Shelby Miller only becomes a number 3 starter. While that has tremendous value, does that make him untouchable in the right deal? Would you trade Jaime Garcia for a cornerstone young cost-controlled SS? Likely.
With that in mind, I probably make Miller untouchable, but he is the only pitcher who remains untouchable in the right deal. Wong and Tavares are the only position players who are untouchable for me.
Martinez has great lure to him, but he there is a lot that can happen as he proceeds through the minors. Same with Rosenthal and Jenkins.
Considering the CF market could be good next offseason (Upton, victorino, bourn) I would hold onto oud prospects unless a quality shortstop became available…
This question has so many ways to look at it so its hard to give a blanket answer. A few impacts (which have been mentioned above) are position and timing of a trade. If we are talking about offseason time I would be less desperate and probably have many FA options to fill my hole(s). If it was trade deadline and we had a gaping hole or injury then you sometimes have to do what you gotta do within reason. Also it should be noted that Wong is not eligible to be traded until 12 months after he signed which wouldn’t be until late June 2012…so he is by default marked off the list for now. Here are my parameters:
1) If its the offseason timeframe I make Miller, Martinez, Taveras, Jenkins and Rosie untouchable in a trade for this type of talent.
2) If its during the season and I am desperate enough to fill a hole then Miller, Martinez and Taveras are off limits.
3) I am more open to trading top talent to get a legit SS than I would be corner OF, etc.
4) In an era where top FA’s are getting MASSIVE contracts I hesitate to give TOR type of pitching in any deal. The risk is definitely there that the prospect won’t reach his ceiling but top FA pitchers are getting $20-25M a year and I take my chances. I am much more willing to deal a back of the rotation SP or corner OF prospect that is not elite.
2 FAs got massive contracts relative to last years fwar
marlins picked up jrey for ~3m/fwar and and many lesser talents were signed for about the same
bball players are like cars
you need to pay twice as much for the last 10% of good
porsche for 100k or ferrari for 250k?
depends on how bad you want it (and cash!)
I’m really not a big fan of Chris Young. Career .240 hitter with a .319 obp. We wouldn’t need him for 2 years anyway and by that time he’s 30 years old, with hitting skills diminishing even faster. As for Peter Bourjos, the Angels would be stupid to trade him when they have a current outfield of oldtimers; Abreau, Hunter and Wells. Trout can’t play everywhere.
However, to answer the question: who would I trade well I’m on board with Cards Fan In Chitown – You start with the players who have a future but not necessarily ones who fit in with our needs.
1. Zack Cox 3b – Unless David Freese goes into the tank because of injury or a swollen head, Cox is redundant.
2. Matt Carpenter 3b – Personally I like him as a platoon with Freese, so only one of him or Cox goes.
3. Maikel Cleto rp – He has the same velocity and control as Francisco Samuel…who is where now? Cash on his value now.
4. Seth Blair sp – There may be a team out there that thinks they can fix his control. Priority trade right now!
5. Adron Chambers of – His value will never be higher then right now. Put him in the package with Blair.
6. Joe Kelly sp – People still seem to hold hope that he is about to bust loose. He’s a player you might want to hold onto for another half year until the value goes up more. Same with these players: Tommy Pham, John Gast, Sam Gaviglio, Trevor Rosenthal and Adam Reifer.
Hi guys, first poster here. I’m no expert, but even if Carlos Martinez doesn’t make it as a starter, he has the stuff of an elite closer (based upon his impressive reviews). To me, that is enough to make him untouchable in this scenario. I think the untouchables are: Miller, Martinez, and Taveras. I’d be reluctant to trade Jenkins until seeing what he does after another year in our system, but Chris Young would be worth it.
3. Maikel Cleto rp – He has the same velocity and control as Francisco Samuel…who is where now? Cash on his value now.
I love it when people try to rewrite history.
FWIW, Samuel’s upside as reliever is (was?) much greater than Cleto’s because in addition to the fastball he has a nasty slider. Of course, without the control it doesn’t matter.
Francisco Samuel’s career BB/9 is 8.6. Maikel Cleto’s minor league career BB/9 is 3.7. Who’s rewriting history? Someone appears to be talking out of their rear-end.
Kind of strange that you reinforce my exact my point that they dont have the same control (via the stat) and then accuse me of talking out of my rear-end – I guess I am missing something.
Yeah, my bad. I thought you were saying it in the first instance (your post is not a reply) but I see now that you were replying to wileyvet (so he is the one talking out of his rear).
yeah, it should have been a reply and it should have been quotes. Sorry about that.
Not trying to rewrite history god….er….C.C….just trying to come up with a comparison off the top of my head at 2am. Okay so Cleto’s control is not comparable to Samuel’s. The point I was trying to make is that both are power arms and neither, in my opinion, have enough control to be major league pitchers. As you know CC, Samuel was ranked high in our system for a number of years based on velocity mostly ahead of guys like Sanchez or Salas who have far better control, which I rightfully thought was wrong. Anyway, thank you Mr. Rude ‘bc’ for looking that up for me. Talk about over-reacting to a simple comment. If you take into account Cleto’s hit-batters (which I’m not sure why this stat seems to be ignored, especially in the WHIP; it’s like hit batters don’t count because they’re limping to much to run.) Then you’re looking at a 4.3 freebies per 9 innings pitched. Add that onto his average of slightly over 1 wild pitch per 9 innings and you don’t have solid control of your stuff. Considering Cleto’s ‘stuff’ is mostly fastballs (the one pitch you need to be consistent with) then his 3.7/9 is actually worse. Does Cleto have a secondary quality major league pitch? I’m not as in tune with all the stat resources as you two baseball geeks, so I don’t know where to look for % of pitch types thrown. Perhaps Samuel was consistently throwing his nasty slider an inordinant amount of time. Kind of like that Ramirez guy in New York. Perhaps next time you two genius’s could be a little more tactful then ignorant. I don’t mind being corrected and I’ll admit when I’m wrong (unlike some Cardinal experts on other websites). I know CC posts all over the place and I normally respect your baseball intellect. Your flippant comment disappoints me though. Keep your vigilance up though boys there just may be other posters who are slightly wrong too that you’ll need to jump on and I’m not talking out my ass when I say that.
I always chuckle when somebody thinks being corrected for his incorrect statement means the person doing the correcting is overreacting, and then gets his feelings hurt, overreacts, and starts calling names. Ok, dude. I guess i’m a “baseball geek” because I can look up that super-geeky stat on baseball reference called “walks per nine innings.”
In any event, if you want to say you don’t think Cleto has good enough control to be successful in the Majors, fine.
No need to be sanctimonious now BC. Being corrected didn’t hurt my feelings as you and everyone else can read in my last reply. It was your rude comment that I was talking out of my ass, but then you already know that. You could be a politician. I apologize (see how that’s done) for calling you a “baseball geek” if that hurt your feelings. CC wears it as a badge of honor because he really is an expert on our farm system or at least it seems he lives Cardinal baseball 24/7. You I don’t know as well.
It’s hard to trade much of this homegrown talent, but with the payroll, and the seemingly wealth of young talent, I’m hoping for a trade. Having a loaded farm system is great, but when it clogs up, some players with skills, may get overlooked.A trade of Martinez,Adams,and maybe Cox, for McCutchen signed to a 5 yr extension, would be perfect. In my opinion, when you have this much young talent, you control the deal, not the other team, and what you get back should be needed,affordable, and very talented.
Just be careful where you trade them. Can still remember that Steve Carlton trade to Philly!! He killed us for years. Trade to the American league!! And get something for whoever you trade!!!
For me personally, Miller and Wong are the absolute untouchables in the system. I just have a great feeling about Wong, that he’s gonna be an above-average everyday 2nd basemen by 2013 for a club that happens to still have an obvious, massive hole there. Tavares is close to absolutely untouchable and I wouldn’t think about including him for a Young or Bourjos, but would include him for a McCutchen type all star at a position of need.
Martinez and Jenkins just have too much risk for me to call them untouchable, even tough I salivate at the thought of what they could become.
Come to think of it, I think the Cards should strongly pursue a McCutchen deal with Tavares as the centerpiece. I’d go Tavares, Cox, Rosenthal, and if that couldn’t get it done, Tavares, Jenkins, Cox plus a couple low-minors upside guys. We keep Matt Adams, Wong, and Miller as guys that should all be up and contributing by 2013, and still have C-Mart as our high upside potential future Ace/shutdown closer.
Pittsburg seems to have set their window for competition yet another few years back, and I bet they do that deal in some form. Cards instantly turn into a 100 win threat this year and have an all star at center for years to come.
Perhaps I am not a WAR expert, but I am not a big fan of either the inconsistent Young or Bourjos (who is suppose to be great defensively and has speed) but there are no promises on what kind of batter he is going to end up being. Where would you bat some one like Bourjos? In order to make the trade I would have to be pretty certain he could lead off but he seems more likely to be battling Furcal for the eighth spot.
Now McCutchen is a whole different matter.
Miller and Tavares are off limits for me but I would certainly be reluctant to trade Martinez, Jenkins or Rosenthal before they reached AA because to me at this point none of them are more than throw ins. I just don’t think you really get value for a player until another team can envision putting that player in their starting line up within a year or so.
I agree with your line of thinking on the guys below AA. Pairing Tavares and Cox with a Rosenthal or Jenkins seems a bit too high. One or both of those pitchers is going to make it in my opinion. And with the cost of that quality of pitching, you are really hurting the future payroll. Toss in the pitcher bust/injury rate, you probably need to keep four of those top prospects to guarantee you get at least one.
Cox is the obvious possibility to me because I don’t see where he is going to able to play – so he probably needs to be packaged for something now. You can trade Tavares since McCuthcheon trade would fill CF.
The only way I trade any of the top 4 pitching prospects is if we can get a plus shortstop – and I would only give up one of them – and it would probably be CMart only because I think he has the highest % chance of injury – but he has that high ceiling that will cause other trade partner to gamble.
I agree – Good young starting pitching is a commodity to not be traded – since they are more susceptible to injury and not very good prospects for free agent deals because you always overpay and injuries cut back your ROI, too.
Miller and Martinez need to be kept together as starters – even if Martinez is not the next “Pedro”, he can be an effective starter at a low cost. Think sustained success in the NL – you think of the Braves, Phillies, Giants (to a lesser degree) and it always revolves around starting pitching and the role of good young starters over a period of years….
Plus the Cardinals are not known for power pitchers, per se so to be able to throw two into the starting lineup will give the opposition different looks. We all know the success of power pitchers in the post season….That’s the ultimate reason to hang on to both good young ones – if Jenkins progresses then you have three – just what you need for a postseason run/success.
People are ignoring some basic facts and asserting that no one should ever trade young pitching prospects because free agent pitching is too expensive and prone to injury.
In point of fact, young pitching prospects are very prone to busting or injuries, which is why they are half as valuable on balance as position player prospects.
Moreover, the comments about FA pitchers are being made in a vaccuum. High end free agents are expensive, whether they are pitchers or position players. The lower injury risk for position players is reflected in their longer contract terms – we saw a ten-year and a nine-year deal this offseason for two position players.
I would imagine at least as many long-term position player contracts have gone bad as those for pitchers. I think people are overvaluing pitching prospects on the basis of unproven generalizations.
I don’t disagree that pitching prospects are theoretically half as valuable, but that seems to work both ways – as in if you want to have young affordable and good pitching, it would by definition mean you have to stock twice as many – which was what my point was.
That doesn’t make a single pitching prospect more valuable. I have to have more five-dollar bills to buy a pizza than ten-dollar bills, but that doesn’t mean that a five-dollar bill is worth more.
5 dollar bills are a bit more fungible than pitchers to make for a good argument.
I don’t know what the delta is between position players and pitchers but reject the idea that it’s as simple as or even approximates 2 to 1. It’s a case by case basis. Sure, a Bryce Harper would trump Shelby Miller. But not Manny Machado. At the stage Shelby Miller or Matt Moore are, for instance, their valuation approximates any of the other top ten prospects that are non pitchers…save a phenom like Harper, and perhaps, to a lesser extent, Trout. Yes, there are preferences, but that’s simply taste, opinion, attitude…nothing more.
We all get that pitchers break. But once they’ve reached the majors their value soars. In fact, were Miller not a Cardinal, I might willingly trade Martinez and Rosenthal plus for him at this point.
As a die hard Cards fan….. I’m just glad we have so many good prospects that we can have this discussion.
We all know about Miller, CMart, Jenkins and Rosy…… Any ideas who could break through and have a big year in 2012?
This would actually be a good bigger topic post. There are so many guys that could fall in this category it would be quite interesting to see everyone’s opinions and reasons why they think that a certain player(s) would be breakout prospects in 2012. Here are a few of my favorites in no particular order:
1) Hector Hernandez – LHP – been one of my favorites since joining the Cards
2) Reggie Williams Jr – OF – super athletic and still learning to turn that athleticism into baseball skills
3) Chris Edmondson – OF – He can hit…I can see him taking another step forward
4) Nick Longmire – OF – I’ve always been higher on Longmire than most. He has plenty of tools that can be a productive RF…need to clean up the swing and approach
5) Adam Ehrlich – C – Like this pick in the 2011 draft
6) Lance Jeffries – OF – Another 2011 draft pick that I liked the upside.
7) Tyler Mills – RHP – Has late inning potential but needs to get control of his arsenal
8) Ben Freeman – LHP – Still learning to pitch but has some good pitches to work with
9) Tyler Rahmatulla – 2B – Thought this was a great upside pick late in the 2011 draft. Will get challenged in 2012 with an aggressive path IMO
10) Anthony Garcia – OF – His name got out there a little bit in 2011 but he has potential to do more
11) Ronnie Gil – SS – Another guy that got some press in 2011 but his potential is still far from developed
12) Kevin Jacob – RHP – Closer stuff but has to reign in his arsenal and clean up the delivery a bit.
Rosenthal, Jay, McClellan and choice of Cleto/Joe Kelly for…
Adam Jones?
Sign me up for that!!!!!!
Adam Jones is a fine fielder. He has power but how much is problematic. 19 of his 25 Hr’s this year were in Baltimore’s small park. Discounting his home HR’s, Jay had more per at bat. I wouldn’t give Rosenthal away on a bet…no one who would trade him for Jones can be my GM. To trade 3 viable arms and Jay for Jones is a misuse of farm talent IMO.
Jay’s career OPS is higher than Jones’ as is…. A .350 OBP is considerably better than .319. I don’t see the allure for Jones.