Comments on: Questions and Answers with Cardinals Farm Director John Vuch – Part 2

By: Gruntosaurus

Gruntosaurus — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 19:25:03 +0000

To correct myself: The year was actually quite decent as drafts go. The problem was that what was AVAILABLE wasn’t very good. There were several worthwhile guys who were drafted above Greene and Raz.

By: Gruntosaurus

Gruntosaurus — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 19:20:35 +0000

That simply wasn’t a very good draft year. To date, guys signed (not just drafted) by the Cardinals from the 2005 draft have contributed about 7.5 WAR, which places them squarely in the middle of the pack — 16 teams’ signees have contributed more, 13 less. (Note that this is about “guys signed” rather than “guys drafted.” Whoever drafted Tim Lincecum in the 23rd round, the Dodgers I think, don’t get credit for his WAR, as he obviously didn’t sign with them. The lower-round choices that the Cardinals let get away have accumulated a negative WAR to date.) When you consider that in the first round, the Cardinals drafted last and third from last, long after the juicy talents (Upton, Zimmerman, Braun, Gordon, Tulowitzki, McCutchen, etc.) were gone, I too would be hard pressed to consider this draft a bust.

By: Hugecardsfan

Hugecardsfan — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 18:10:36 +0000

Nice post. My sentiment is that it would be impossible to consider the 2005 draft a bust considering Jaime Garcia’s selection in the 22d round. Throw in that Rasmus brought us “the trade” and it was a whopping success. Moreover, I don’t think the contributions of Boggs, Greene, Anderson and Stavinoha should be marginalized. Who will ever forget Stavi’s HR off Trevor Hoffman?

By: zuke354

zuke354 — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 22:41:33 +0000

Not sure where to post this….

The other day, a friend and I were discussing the upcomming draft and the number of picks. He asked when was the last time the cards had that many picks. I mentioned 05. After some smart phone googling, he made an interesting comment. He said well that was a failure. Then we breifly argued about that. I think he holds the same opinion as most casual fans…That they don’t realize how many guys never make it and how hard the draft is. You have approx 50 first round picks every year. Yet, the number of ML roster spots never change. So that is roughly 250 first rounders competing for the same 30 spots. This doesn’t include other rounds and amature free agents.

So I sat down and figured it up using 2005 as my reference. Did you know….

In 2005…The cards drafted Rasmus (6.1 War), Greene (.6 War) and McCormik (did not make it).

The averge WAR for the first round was 3.6. But that is misleading. Only 19 guys from the first round have a WAR above 1.

But drafts are top heavy. Remove the top 10 and it drops to 1.8 average WAR and only 11 guys that are above 1.

But that still isn’t an accurate comp since the cards drated late.

Looking at where they drafted and beyond (rest of first round and second round), only 10 guys were a postive 1 WAR. That is a failure rate of 80%. So the cards 60% failre rate isn’t so bad (and green can add another .04 WAR this year easily).

Further more, its interesting to note that there one success was a high ceiling HS guy, and their failures were college guys. Though most of their misses were also college kids. In fact, most of the positive WARs they missed are all college kids. But I think it is still too early to draw conclusions since HS kids taken that year are only 25.

By: Forsch31

Forsch31 — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 20:35:50 +0000

Adam Jones has never hit 30 home runs in single season in his pro career, minors or majors. His highest MLB total was 25, last year in 618 PAs. In the two seasons before that, he hit 19 each in 621 and 519 PAs. He still may manage to do it, being only 25, but saying he’s got “legit” 30-home run power is something different and doesn’t jive with his production. He’s got Allen Craig power, which is still rather nice.

That said, I seriously doubt that the Orioles are interested in trading him. Word is that they want to extend him after this season; with their rebuilding in full swing, a cheap, young veteran like Jones you hold onto as long as possible.

By: zuke354

zuke354 — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 17:24:43 +0000

There is no gurantee that we can sign those guys.

Adam Jones is young and has ligit 30 HR power as a CF.

I would trade for him if they could lock him up.

By: Forsch31

Forsch31 — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 16:32:01 +0000

And Taveras is still a bit aways, being only 19 and in Single A. I don’t believe the Cardinals will rush him.

If Tom Pham could stay healthy, I’d be more excited about him.

By: wileyvet

wileyvet — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 05:52:29 +0000

Azru, you should have your own TV show brother. Those are the most intelligent, well thought out questions for both halves of the interview. I’d be surprised if the Cards don’t offer you a job in the communications department, but don’t worry, I don’t think you’ll have to know how to play 2b too. A big thank you to Vuch for being forthright with his answers too.

By: arknepp

arknepp — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 23:34:57 +0000

Most of our outfield prospects are a ways away, i.e., taken out of high school in the 2011 draft…I think I would do this trade (Jay, Cox, McClellan) because a.) I think Jay may be a little overvalued by the rest of the league b.) McClellan is replacement level or close to it, and c.) I like Cox but he is not blue chip by any means, and d) most importantly, I think this improves our team right now without sacrificing too much of the future.

By: Gruntosaurus

Gruntosaurus — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 17:42:03 +0000

Actually, this I do not see. Who other than Taveras is a “young outfield prospect” worth hanging onto?