Derrick Goold has a great breakdown of every player that is coming to early “prospect” camp before the major league Spring Training gets going. This is only a few weeks away now, finally.
Here’s the list of players headed to “early camp”. Hit the link for DGoold’s insight on each and every player on the list.
RHP Carlos Martinez
LHP Anthony Ferrara
RHP Victor DeLeon
LHP Hector Hernandez
RHP Michael Blazek
RHP Deryk Hooker
RHP Eric Fornataro
LHP Justin Wright
RHP Willy Paulino
LHP Tyler Lyons
C Geoff Klein
C Audry Perez
1B Xavier Scruggs
2B Starlin Rodriguez
INF Greg Garcia
SS/2B Breyvic Valera
SS Ronny Gil
SS Kenny Peoples-Walls
OF Kyle Conley
OF Oscar Taveras
OF Nick Longmire
OF Charlie Tilson
OF CJ McElroy
OF Lance Jeffries
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Goold’s comments on Taveras’ secondary skills are interesting. I wonder how much they factor into rankings of him.
Never Heard of DeLeon or Paulino…I feel inadequate
Did not realize how poorly Justin Wright pitched in AFL, after some great results during the season. SSS, good hitting environment and all that, but it just didn’t go well.
Mr. Goold seems to have a problem coming up with a name for the pre-pre-camp. I hope he doesn’t blow his load on The Premature Evaluation Camp. Yes, I know it’s cheesy! Anyway, I find this a very interesting mix of talent. High end to nearly unheard of…or at least for VolsnCards5. Just kidding dude! I find it extremely interesting that there are 4 shortstops. Could it be they’re making a priority of the systems biggest weakness?!
Middle infield in general seems to bea priority. These are clearly guys they think have a great deal of potential but want to help them learn how to prepare to make the big league squad eventually. Wong, Cox, Miller, etc. not being on the list show this is for those very young guys or marginal guys who could turn into a big prospect.
I’ve liked Hooker for awhile but I think this is his make or break year; he’s gonna have to put it together or I think he’s done; anyone agree?
I agree, I think he has the ability to rise above just like Rosenthal, but he does have to dominate this year. He needs to put his brain farts behind him and move on.
My problem with Hooker is that from most reports, is that while he’s got two good pitches, he has only average velocity (low 90s on his fastball), so he’s basically a two-pitch starter right now without the overwhelming fastball to compensate. His success in the lower levels was mostly due to his approach rather than his raw ability and the simple fact he saw limited action as a tadem starter. Unless he develops a third pitch, he’s not near Rosenthal, who throws in the mid-90s and has two plus pitches plus a decent breaking ball and change-up.
#4
As to Justin Wright in fall league. He may have had a little bit of a tired arm or been trying to work on new pitches.
any info on why Adams didn’t get an invite…
I believe Adams is a non-roster invitee to the big boy camp along with Miller, Swaggggerty, etc…
Correct.
2 things jump out:
1. Goold says in his article that he didn’t have Breyvic Valera in his top 30 for the BA Prospect Handbook. No idea how he missed him, especially if the Cards are intrigued enough to invite him to this camp for the top young players.
2. Anthony Garcia wasn’t invited. The guy’s put up really good power and plate discipline numbers the past 2 seasons at age-appropriate levels. If his defensive limitations hold him back as a prospect, you’d think the Cards would want him in camp early to get the extra reps and coaching.
I’m sure there are other considerations on who gets invited. Garcia may have played in a Puerto Rican league over the Winter (don’t know one way or the other) so they might think he needs rest. There may be family or other considerations as well. I wouldn’t read to much in to the lack of an invite without knowing more.
Don’t think Goold missed him (which is why he also says he lists him as a sleeper prospect). The things to remember with rankings is that talent evaluators tend to be wary of extremely small sample sizes and performances at low-A ball. Valera played only 19 games in Johnson City. For point of comparison, Taveras had 53 games in Johnson City with the performance that got him noticed and put on evaluators’ radar.
Taveras had a so-so 2009 season in the DR before his breakout 2010 season in JC.
Meanwhile, in Venezuela, Valera had a monster age-17 season in 2010: .325/.402/.472. He played 60 games.
I have no idea how Venezuelan numbers translate, but his 2011 season suggested the numbers weren’t entirely flukey.
I don’t have a huge point, other than wondering why Goold didn’t have him in the top 30. I’ve had him pegged as a top-20 guy, with a bullet, but I don’t have Goold’s sources. (I just have you guys!)
Most talent evaluators disregard VSL stats, because they’re about as reliable as community college stats. Valera won’t be on most lists because he really hasn’t proved anything yet. Scout.com has him listed at No. 39 on their Top 40.
Audry Perez gets a pretty good plug from Goold.
Of note, Keith Law rated the Cardinals system as the #4 farm system in baseball. St Louis is behind S.D., T.B. and Toronto and ahead of Kansas City.
Klaw’s blurb about the Cards: “They’ve drafted very well in the past few years, which has to be heartening to Astros fans, as Houston just hired Jeff Luhnow, who oversaw the Cards’ recent drafts, as GM. St. Louis also has done an excellent job of developing the players it’s drafted. I really like how the Cards are set up to contend continuously during the next five years.”
Yeah, that’s kind of good news bad news, huh?
Hopefully they’ve developed a “system” for analyzing and developing talent that will at least allow the organization to continue to build in the absence of Lunhow and the few others he took with him.
Didn’t see much reference to MLB.com’s St Louis Cardinals top 20 prospect list. I found a few things interesting:
http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=stl
Haven’t heard much discussion on Future Redbirds of Andres Serrano (#20 on the list). He looks like the next no ceiling prospect pitcher after a season of rookie ball +… He was a 750K International signing.
That’s one of the most eccentric top-20 lists I’ve seen. After the first 9 guys, it looks like Mayo just pulled names out of a hat.
Serrano is 17 and hasn’t pitched an inning of pro ball. Scott Gorgen (#19) didn’t pitch last year. And how strange is it to call Seth Blair our #17 prospect after the season he just had? I get his explanation — that Blair was a successful college pitcher (in a home park that favored hitters), and has good stuff. But he’s a first-round draft pick whose team didn’t use him in the playoffs!
Interestingly, Kevin Goldstein, whose work I generally respect highly, also keeps Blair on his top-20 list (at #20), which has just gone up at Baseball Prospectus. There are still those who believe in his arm.
Blair’s a first round pick with a 95mph fastball; pedigree and tools go a long way in prospect rankings (and they should, frankly).
I don’t know…..Blair literally went “wild”. I don’t know how you ignore that. But the arm never goes away. But if I recall correctly (and I may not), he didn’t lose control with his offspeed stuff, it was his fastball – that’s a pretty big red flag for me. I guess the question is what changed from ASU? Could it be he was never that accurate and college hitters got themselves out? I hope that isn’t the case, but losing control on the fastball wouldn’t seem a common thing on more than a short term basis.
I don’t think anyone’s ignoring it, that’s why he’s fallen off or way down on every prospect list. Blair had a 2.45 BB/9 in his last year at ASU, so the control problems are new. But like you say, we don’t know why he had such problems – injury? Change in mechanics? Steve blass disease? We don’t know. He still has more potential than a lot of organizational-type talents.
Just saw that, and came over here to note it.
I didn’t think it was any stranger than to call Stock our #16 prospect. What has he shown to suggest that? The only thing I could figure was they haven’t given up on Stock as a pitcher if the catcher gig doesn’t work out.
Blair’s wildness certainly makes him suspect. I wondered if he could have been injured. If he doesn’t turn this around this year, I think he’s toast.
I also thought Gast at 10 was a bit of a stretch. I like the guy but I think he needs to step it up a notch this year to qualify for that ranking.
By the way, if Serrano really is 17 and slinging what’s projected as a plus plus fastball, and already has feel for the curve and CU, it won’t take long before he’s higher than 20.
I find Mayo’s last 6 rankings suspect. Does anyone know why MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law don’t include Eduardo Sanchez and Lance Lynn in their rankings? Technically they are both still rookies, as is Tony Cruz (I think). Do they use a different rookie standard?
I don’t know the answer, but I actually prefer it that way. We know Sanchez and Lynn are major leaguers. I don’t think of them as prospects in the sense that a prospect is someone who could help the team in the future but isn’t yet a part of the team.
That said, I also like what Goldstein does at BP with the ranking of best players 25 and under, since guys that age are still at the low end of their developmental curve, more often than not.
Right. KG’s criteria for including/omitting guys with major-league experience are not clear to me, but I think he does consider time spent on a major-league roster, not just number of plate appearances or innings pitched. If so, it’s clear why Sanchez and Lynn aren’t there. They won’t qualify as rookies for the BBWAA RotY either, because of roster time. (I will say that I prefer his apparent attempt to use the BBWAA criteria, compared to ignoring it and just using PA and IP as is done on most prospect lists.) Note that he does put both of them on his top under-25 list, just ahead of Cox in slots 8 and 9.
Incidentally, Jaime Garcia slots in at #2 on that under-25 list … _behind_ Shelby.