Pete Kozma has been a firebrand for conversation since he joined the Cardinals in the 2007 MLB draft out of high school. Everyone wanted the Cardinals to bust their budget and grab heralded high school pitcher, Rich Porcello. Consequently, Kozma has had a target on his back amongst prospect watchers for 5 years. This offseason, Kozma sits in limbo and let’s take a look at where he stands going into the 2012 season.
(Sorry, with no time to Photoshop, this is the best I can do. Anyone else who can do better, please drop a link to your handiwork in the comments.)
Sometimes it is very easy to see what an organization thinks of a prospect. They clear the way for his path to the majors and don’t sign minor league free agents (or major league free agents) at his position. The Cardinals won’t come out and say it publicly, but they have lost confidence in Mr. Kozma and it plays out in fine print on the page named “Transactions”.
2009 MLB Draft – The Cardinals draft SS Ryan Jackson in the 5th round.
Dec 2011 – The Cardinals sign SS Rafael Furcal to a two year deal.
Feb 2012 – The Cardinals sign SS Alex Cora to a minor league contract.
With those three contracts, Kozma is getting pressure a level below him in Ryan Jackson who plays better defense and had a higher OPS in Springfield than he did. Kozma is blocked above him at the major league level as the Cardinals signed Rafael Furcal to play shortstop in the majors for the next two seasons. They wouldn’t have signed Furcal if they didn’t believe anyone was ready to play full time at shortstop from the farm until 2014. And to top it all off the Cardinals are putting pressure on Kozma at his own level by signing Alex Cora to a minor league contract.
It will be very interesting to see how the Cardinals handle this jam up over the next two seasons. Jackson is ready to be the everyday shortstop at Memphis. The Cardinals probably wouldn’t have signed Alex Cora to be a bench player in Memphis and Rafael Furcal is ensconced at shortstop for St. Louis for the next two years.
Obviously, there are major league bench spots available, but with players like Tyler Greene and Daniel Descalso, who can both play shortstop if needed and who have actually hit in the minor leagues, that direction looks bleak as well. Pete Kozma’s numbers don’t support the reasoning for the Cardinals to get him up to the big club to help out. He had an absolutely dreadful season last year with a 75 wOBA+ and he hasn’t had above average (100) wOBA+ since Quad Cities in 2008 (unless you count a 15 game stretch to start the season in 2009 at Palm Beach). A good season, albeit below average at the bandbox in Springfield in 2010 attempted to recharge his prospect-dom, but to no avail.
With 66 games at shortstop and 40 games at second in Memphis last year, the Cardinals seem to be moving him around to accommodate other players. If Kozma was the real deal, they would have moved other players around to get him all the playing time at short. But, alas he hasn’t hit and is slowly getting moved off of shortstop. And unfortunately, if he wasn’t a 1st round pick and a controversial one at that, he wouldn’t be a story year after year for his struggles.
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I think there’s little to no confidence in the bat right now, but they still believe in the glove. Most of the projections I’ve seen (Zips, PECOTA) have Kozma as a better fielding SS than Ryan Jackson. He’s listed as being well above average in both. I think the Cardinals may still be hoping he comes around to some extent as a hitter; enough for him to be a defensive-minded sub.
Hopefully Kozma doesn’t end up like Kevin in “we need to talk about Kevin”
I don’t see where drafting another SS in the 5th round is much a sign of lack of confidence. IF they overdrafted a SS in the first round I might buy that argument.
I agree. I just wanted to list how they acquired Jackson in there who has caught Kozma from behind in the minor league pecking order.
On Cora….he was thinking of retiring this off-season and looking for a coaching gig when the Cardinals offered him the minor league deal with spring training invite. Word is that he was interested because the Cardinals want him to serve as a mentor and on-field instructor for Descalso and Greene during spring training. So, if he goes to Memphis, there’s a solid chance that he has the same kind of role there for Jackson, Kozma, and others, which may affect how much pressure Kozma winds up getting at his own level.
Does Kozma even need to be talked about? He’s a bust and everyone knows it. The Cards moved on during last season. Kozma should appreciate the remaining time he has with the club, because his eventual release may mean the end of his professional baseball career. I can’t envision any other major league club picking him up if his offensive struggles carry over into 2012. The Kozma pipe dream is dead, let’s hope Ryan Jackson doesn’t suffer a similar fate.
I wonder: is there a hitting instructor out there who’s particularly skilled at working with slap hitters who have no power? Kozma can’t hit the ball hard and never will, but there are players who manage to survive and be “useful” in the bigs, if not stars, by figuring out the slap-hitting thing. Koz has not done that, and he’s certainly not going to do it working with McGwire. (Can more different physical types, and more different approaches to hitting, even be imagined?) But if some team somewhere has such an instructor, who knows, maybe a deal could be cut.
You mean Aaron Miles?
I agree. You don’t have to be a great hitter to survive as a reserve middle infielder.
I would be DELIGHTED if Koz developed the Miles package, grafting onto it greater arm strength (which he does have and will presumably retain) and defensive range (which he has for now, although he may not by the time he becomes Miles-like). That’s a very valuable player in a utility role; heck, even with his abundant limitations, Miles wasn’t the worst guy to have as your last man off the bench, and a Miles-like player who can actually play defense is useful to have around. Problem is, I see no evidence that Koz will ever reach even that very modest bar, and considerable evidence that he won’t.
He’s a topic of conversation as a prior number 1 pick and especially as a controversial one.
No, he used to be a topic of conversation as a prior number 1 pick. Now he’s just a bust that shouldn’t even merit a mention. This horse has been beaten.
Kozma is only 23 and was rushed prematurely to Triple A. If you do not like the topic, then go read something else. Obviously, other people have found value in discussing him.
Kozma still has two options left and if his defense remains solid may very well be kept around the next two years unless we desperately need the roster spot. He should have 3 options left. I believe the Cardinal’s only put him on the 40 man last Winter in order to save themselves from embarrassment.
Here lies Pete Kozma… RIP
…is Kozma going to kill our entire 25-man roster with a crossbow?
Hopefully he doesnt blind anyone with liquid plumber
Kozma wouldn’t even be in the top 5 of the SS prospects coming out of High School this year- so after the Cardinals select one w/ all the extra picks– this past prospect can be put to bed.
You guys all need a refill; your glasses are all half-empty. It would not be a shock at all if Kozma hit 8-12 homers and hit .258. He could end up with an OPS of just over .700. These are reasonable projections. He could surprise a little and hit 14 homers in the PCL with a .265 ave., and see his OPS climb near .750. That was his ceiling when we drafted him. He seems to be on the verge of reaching his potential.
No one was happy about that said potential when he was drafted, but he has already reached the Majors. He nearly broke Albert’s arm (which would have made him a hero since Albert would still be in St. Louis, and we might have won without his one good game).
He will never hit .300, and he’ll never hit 25 dingers. He’ll never be that impact player Porcello was envisioned as being, but he could be what he was projected as being. That is not a bust. That is a success.
Look, I like optimism as much as the next guy, but Kozma would need to be on a serious steroid regimine to approach an OPS of .750 at AAA. Yes, he may have been rushed through the minors, but his career high OPS for a season is .702. His career high batting average is .258. Last season he batted .214 with an OPS of .569 in AAA as a 23 year old. This is not an unreasonable age for him to be playing his first season in AAA. He’ll be 24 to start the season in 2012. He has never really done anything offensively to inspire any sort of hope that he can be any kind of useful hitter in the majors. He currently has a 40-man roster spot and is giving the Cardinals little reason to let him keep it. If a need for a roster spot arises, he could find himself being DFA’d, not that any team would be particularly inclined to jump on him and give them one of their roster spots, but stranger things have happened. Simply put, there is little reason for optimism, which is why I now consider him an afterthought. Sure, we could see him in the event of multiple injuries, but let’s face the facts….Alex Effing Cora is now ahead of him on the depth chart.
I’m not predicting greatness. I simply remember his second trip through Springfield was better. I can’t argue with your evidence; history isn’t on Kozma’s side.
I do believe it a reasonable prediction that he reaches his potential…even though his potential was never what we wanted from our first round pick.
One more thought. Kozma suffers from the backlash of the John Gall era. At the time, we were desperate for a hero. We didn’t have Miller, Martinez, or even Rosenthal to dream on. It seems to me that not having to waste money on a Miles, Lopez, Izturis, or similar type has a certain value in these new bold times.
He would be an even worse pick today, though. We are now in a position to aim for the moon, so I guess he will always seem a really poor choice. I just don’t think we are bound to view him as a really poor player because of that.
I don’t consider him a poor player because of his draft status. I consider him a poor player because he is a poor player. I wouldn’t feel any differently about him if he was taken in the 20th round. That being said, he might not even be sitting in AAA if he was taken in the 20th round.
Kozma suffers from dot being Porcello. He was the guy everyone wanted instead. It wouldn’t mater who was drafted…It wasn Porcello. People saw this as the typical cardinal safe choice draft.
But truth was, Porecello wasn’t worth it. No 18 year-old on a 40man roster is worth it. Everyone wanted to overlook the roster issue. Adn the guys the cards missed out on? Mostly safe college guys.
However, I think the one guy cards are going to gregret not drafting is d’Arnaud.
No, Kozma suffers from not being very good.
On the other hand, most guys chosen 18th overall, as Koz was, aren’t very good either, a fact we should not forget given that the Cardinals have the 19th and 22nd choices in the 2012 draft. Players drafted from slot 15 through slot 21, bracketing the slot the Cardinals used to pick Koz, have about a 2/3 chance on average of making it to the majors — which Koz has done. Their average career WAR if they do make it is somewhere around 8, which Koz seems very unlikely to sniff. However, that’s a mean, and is strongly biased by people like Roger Clemens, Doc Halladay, CC Sabathia, etc., who were drafted in these slots, along with lots of guys you never heard of who got a cup of coffee and that was it. The median is a great deal lower than that. It is not as low as what Koz has “achieved” to date, though. Like I said: he’s not very good, and no Porcello envy goes into making that statement.
One of the things I pointed out at the time Kozma was drafted – the last HS shortstop chosen in the first round and not a top 10 pick who was anything more than a marginal major leaguer at the shortstop position was Royce Clayton in 1988. That is an over 20 year period.