Comments on: We Need To Talk About Kozma

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 22:50:55 +0000

One of the things I pointed out at the time Kozma was drafted – the last HS shortstop chosen in the first round and not a top 10 pick who was anything more than a marginal major leaguer at the shortstop position was Royce Clayton in 1988. That is an over 20 year period.

By: Gruntosaurus

Gruntosaurus — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 22:25:47 +0000

No, Kozma suffers from not being very good.

On the other hand, most guys chosen 18th overall, as Koz was, aren’t very good either, a fact we should not forget given that the Cardinals have the 19th and 22nd choices in the 2012 draft. Players drafted from slot 15 through slot 21, bracketing the slot the Cardinals used to pick Koz, have about a 2/3 chance on average of making it to the majors — which Koz has done. Their average career WAR if they do make it is somewhere around 8, which Koz seems very unlikely to sniff. However, that’s a mean, and is strongly biased by people like Roger Clemens, Doc Halladay, CC Sabathia, etc., who were drafted in these slots, along with lots of guys you never heard of who got a cup of coffee and that was it. The median is a great deal lower than that. It is not as low as what Koz has “achieved” to date, though. Like I said: he’s not very good, and no Porcello envy goes into making that statement.

By: zuke354

zuke354 — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 22:06:09 +0000

Kozma suffers from dot being Porcello. He was the guy everyone wanted instead. It wouldn’t mater who was drafted…It wasn Porcello. People saw this as the typical cardinal safe choice draft.

But truth was, Porecello wasn’t worth it. No 18 year-old on a 40man roster is worth it. Everyone wanted to overlook the roster issue. Adn the guys the cards missed out on? Mostly safe college guys.

However, I think the one guy cards are going to gregret not drafting is d’Arnaud.

By: Joee

Joee — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 22:05:21 +0000

I don’t consider him a poor player because of his draft status. I consider him a poor player because he is a poor player. I wouldn’t feel any differently about him if he was taken in the 20th round. That being said, he might not even be sitting in AAA if he was taken in the 20th round.

By: Lloyd

Lloyd — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 20:54:56 +0000

I’m not predicting greatness. I simply remember his second trip through Springfield was better. I can’t argue with your evidence; history isn’t on Kozma’s side.
I do believe it a reasonable prediction that he reaches his potential…even though his potential was never what we wanted from our first round pick.
One more thought. Kozma suffers from the backlash of the John Gall era. At the time, we were desperate for a hero. We didn’t have Miller, Martinez, or even Rosenthal to dream on. It seems to me that not having to waste money on a Miles, Lopez, Izturis, or similar type has a certain value in these new bold times.
He would be an even worse pick today, though. We are now in a position to aim for the moon, so I guess he will always seem a really poor choice. I just don’t think we are bound to view him as a really poor player because of that.

By: Joee

Joee — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 18:14:11 +0000

Look, I like optimism as much as the next guy, but Kozma would need to be on a serious steroid regimine to approach an OPS of .750 at AAA. Yes, he may have been rushed through the minors, but his career high OPS for a season is .702. His career high batting average is .258. Last season he batted .214 with an OPS of .569 in AAA as a 23 year old. This is not an unreasonable age for him to be playing his first season in AAA. He’ll be 24 to start the season in 2012. He has never really done anything offensively to inspire any sort of hope that he can be any kind of useful hitter in the majors. He currently has a 40-man roster spot and is giving the Cardinals little reason to let him keep it. If a need for a roster spot arises, he could find himself being DFA’d, not that any team would be particularly inclined to jump on him and give them one of their roster spots, but stranger things have happened. Simply put, there is little reason for optimism, which is why I now consider him an afterthought. Sure, we could see him in the event of multiple injuries, but let’s face the facts….Alex Effing Cora is now ahead of him on the depth chart.

By: Lloyd

Lloyd — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 17:22:26 +0000

You guys all need a refill; your glasses are all half-empty. It would not be a shock at all if Kozma hit 8-12 homers and hit .258. He could end up with an OPS of just over .700. These are reasonable projections. He could surprise a little and hit 14 homers in the PCL with a .265 ave., and see his OPS climb near .750. That was his ceiling when we drafted him. He seems to be on the verge of reaching his potential.

No one was happy about that said potential when he was drafted, but he has already reached the Majors. He nearly broke Albert’s arm (which would have made him a hero since Albert would still be in St. Louis, and we might have won without his one good game).

He will never hit .300, and he’ll never hit 25 dingers. He’ll never be that impact player Porcello was envisioned as being, but he could be what he was projected as being. That is not a bust. That is a success.

By: Forsch31

Forsch31 — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 14:46:58 +0000

Kozma is only 23 and was rushed prematurely to Triple A. If you do not like the topic, then go read something else. Obviously, other people have found value in discussing him.

By: Joe Schroeder

Joe Schroeder — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 02:03:33 +0000

Kozma wouldn’t even be in the top 5 of the SS prospects coming out of High School this year- so after the Cardinals select one w/ all the extra picks– this past prospect can be put to bed.

By: Clark

Clark — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 01:43:08 +0000

Hopefully he doesnt blind anyone with liquid plumber