Cardinals Sign Dominican Pitching Prospect Andres Serrano
Posted on February 10th, 2012 by azruavatar in International signings, tags: Andres Serrano, Cardinals, Dominican Republic, ProspectBaseball America has the details. The Cardinals are dropping a nice chunk of change on Serrano ($750k) as the first major post-Luhnow acquisition.
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Will be a really nice get, just hoping his age and other info about him checks out.
Wow. If he is really touching 95 at 17 and isn’t crazy wild, that is one hell of a signing!
I would have phrased this “If he really is 17 …”
I like to hear that he is a good athlete. It bodes well for repeating a delivery and developing consistent command. Good, high-upside signing.
I have always wondered how IFA work from a budget stand point. Is this considered part of the 2011 or 2012 crop of young players.
If you look at the pattern
2009, 1 first round selection (miller)…followed by big international splash (Carlos MArtinez)
2010, Multiple first round selctions, no big splash
2011, limited early selections, stay conervative….Big itnernational splasy (Serrano)
Martinez was signed in April 2010, I would think that he would have been in the 2010 budget. But maybe to add to your point, the Cards did sign Mateo in 2009 to a big deal, it just got voided because the eye thing.
And that is what I always wondered about.
So the signings happen with the remainder of the draft budget, or does it happen at the begining of the draft budget.
Of course, when they signed this guy they probably assumed Pujols was comming back. But they had to feaure they would have multiple picks this year.
When does the allotted pool begin for signing foreign FAs?
I thought I’ve heard that it hasn’t started yet so signing a guy like Cespedes wouldn’t count against it yet.
I believe the spending cap starts July 2 for international free agents so until then the Cards can write big checks without repercussions.
Cespedes is above the age limit so regardless of the amount he signs for he wouldn’t have been affected if am remembering the new rules correctly.
Finally, the Cards prospect list is available from Baseball Prospectus: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15998
Three five star prospects? Love that.
Only a few nuggets I’ve got issues with.
~Tyrell Jenkins a three star prospect? I understand that he’s still extremely raw and he’s still three or four years from being at the big league level, but the results (3.86 ERA, 4.23 K/B, and a 1.83 GO/AO ratio) were quite promising. Sure, you could nitpick that his WHIP was a bit high and he didn’t pitch enough innings, but the frame and the results make me question why Jenkins isn’t a four star prospect.
~Carpenter over Jackson? I guess I’m not nearly as high on Carpenter as others are, as I’m not convinced he’s better than Freese or Zack Cox. And the whole positional value pushes SS well past 3B.
Tyrell Jenkins’ WHIP is uninformative about how he pitched because his walk rate was low, his LD% was very low (9.9%), his GB% was very high (56.8%), and his BABIP was an absurd .380. Basically, a bunch of grounders made it through his infield defense.
Then, IMO, they should also be going hard after Jorge Soler.
Why not? If this is the last year they can spend any amount they want, why not try to get all the young, good talent possible? If he flames out, oh well. I think it’s more than worth the risk considering the changing of the rules.
The Cubs are apparently going to try really hard to get him.
Errr what was Zack Cox’s major league deal if it wasn’t a big splash?
I think he meant no big “international” splash. Or are Cox’s origins murkier than I thought??
The Cardinals drafted Kolten Wong in the first round last year and he’s already the third ranked 2b prospect in the minor leagues. Kinda like the Shelby Miller signing it was a bit of a risk taking a 2b with their first round selection. Ive read that his bat is outstanding and very well could be the most major league ready prospect in our farm system. The only reason he fell low enough for St. Louis to get him is college second basemen are thought of a defensive liability if they are already playing second at the college level, but from what I’ve read he’s a decent defender. I think it’s great that St. Louis isn’t playing it safe like they have before, signings of Miller, Martinez, Wong, and Serrano are all players that a lot of teams passed up on because of their potential risk. Also Tyrell Jenkens whos 4th on the Cardinals prospect list, he’s a risk also. He was headed to Baylor to play football when the Cardinals signed him out of High School to come play baseball. Go Cards!
I’ve always heard that draft budget and IFA budget are completely separate.
in truth, there is only one budget
Well, yea…only one budgets
But rule 5 draft spending and IFA spending are different line items in that budget
Who knows, you would think the Henry would have different budgets for the red sox, and his soccer team (liverpool?) but it doesnt seem that way
So if he is 19 instead of 17 is it still a good signing? It seems seems like a couple of year is the normal fudge rate.
They’ve been investigating this since last October and they still don’t have it figured out?
I’m betting that the price would change.
Just think, if Carlos Matias hadn’t used a fake ID he’d be in Boston’s system now instead of ours. Let’s hope this guy is all legit and we don’t repay the favor to the Bosox. Looks like another good signing though.
If I remember correctly the reason Matias’s documentation was wrong was because he was raised by his Uncle and had been using his Uncles last name since he was very young. I don’t believe his DOB changed but it was more of an oversite mistake than a blatant act of giving a false identity.
Wiley, his bonus actually went up by a million as a result of the documentation issue. A good move for everybody (STL, martinez) except Boston.
IIRC, it was his development that got him the extra million in signing bonus. He was just another undersized right handed pitcher who didn’t throw hard when the Sox signed him.
Actually, Boston signed him as a SS.
I thought the Sox signed him as a SS. It’s true he developed a wicked fastball but I don’t think the Sox were projecting pitcher.
dj, I’m pretty sure his age changed… IIRC his uncle had guessed at the birth date and it wasn’t off by an intent to deceive amount, but by a SWAG. Martinez mother had died shortly after childbirth so there may not have been anyone to run it by.
I thought his age had changed too. I knew about his mother dying and being raised by the uncle, but I thought they had had to use a made up birth certificate for the BoSox. Not like Boston to not do their due diligence. In hind sight though their scout screwed up by not recognizing his power arm. If he did they would have been a little more patient in gaining his true background instead of just cutting him loose. I have no complaints in accepting this gift from the Red Sox.
So CC, he was signed as a shortstop eh! Boy we sure could use one with a rocket arm. Let’s see; we have Shelby…Rosenthal….Jenkins….Lynn….Gast…..Kelly….Whiting….Cleto….Gorgen….Hooker….
Carlos Martinez – starting shortstop?! Hmmmm!
Kozma has a strong arm. He just can’t hit. Can C-Mart?
After a little more research it turns out his birthdate did change but like you said it was only from Sept 2, 1991 to Sept 21, 1991 so obviously it wasn’t a blatant attempt to decieve anyone.
I don’t think it was intentional either. They probably just guessed because they didn’t have a birth certificate on hand, but his uncle knew roughly when he was born. Again, sucks to be Boston.
Judging by all his errors Grunt, he’s not the best fielder either.
So he actually got younger?
I believe that Serrano was signed months ago and it’s just now being announced because the paperwork went through. So I don’t think we have to worry about him having his contract voided unless a weird situation happens again like Mateo.
Actually pretty sure it hasn’t gone through as the Cards have made no announcement. The signing was only reported by BA and pretty sure they said it is pending approval.
Anybody notice the signing of Dominican lefty Erick Hurtado also 17. Throwing high 80′s hitting 90-91.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2012/02/cardinals-sign-dominican-lefty-erick-hurtado/
Interesting guy to have in the farm system if nothing more than organizational depth. Should add a mile or two to that fastball to sit in the low 90s consistently so if his offspeed stuff develops you’d have a nice LOOGY.
Hurtado’s contract was voided when he tested postive for PED’s
“His trainer was a man known as Lucas.”
Classic
Did anyone see the BP top 101 list?
Goldstein has 5 Cards on his list, starting with Miller at #10, and ending with Wong at #88.
Biggest surprise, for me, was seeing OT at #23, ahead of Jake Marisnick (#28). BA had him as the best OF in the MWL last season.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16020
Interesting that on the Keith Law Top 100 List are 3b Cox, P Jenkins and P Swagerty (with P Rosenthal on his list of 11 that just missed), while on Kevin Goldstein’s Top 101 List are 2b Wong and 1b Adams.
These players are mutually exclusive to each list. The 3 that are on both lists are Miller, Martinez and Taveras. I guess this shows how different prospect scouting writers appreciate, value and rank players differently, but even more importanly for the Cards system is that the argument can be made that they have 9 total prospects for which a strong argument has been made by two of the premier prospect writers are Top 100 worthy.
John Sickels, a third writer, does his Top 100 a little differently. He does a Top 5o Pitchers List and a Top 50 Hitters List. He had two Cardinal hitters in his list (Wong and Taveras) and 4 pitchers (Miller, Martinez, Jenkins and Lance Lynn).
So the 3 different writers have 10 different Cardinal prospects in their Top 100 lists. This bodes really well for the future of the Cards. To put it in perspective, if all 30 teams had 10 so ranked prospects their would be a Top 300 instead of a Top 100. The cherry on those numbers is that, with the exception of Lynn, who, under any calculation of prospect eligibility status, will almost certainly will use up his eligibility, the remaining 9 prospects will all likely still be considered to be prospects in 2013. Miller may get some time in the majors this season, but the other 8 won’t. The depth should just keep improving.
When you add 2 first round and 3 sandwich round picks this summer, subject to the health of these prospects, if the new scouting director can do nearly as good a job as Luhnow did, and if Vuch and his staff keep the development progression going, the Future Redbirds site will be destination #1 for many of us.
Great points. The quality of player acquisition and development improved dramatically, starting around 2008. The 2009 draft may turn out to be one for the ages.
The only damper is that the 2012 draft isn’t considered particularly strong, especially compared to last year. Even with 5 picks in the top 60, and 9 in the top 200, there may not be many potential impact players to draft. And who knows how the new budget rules will affect high school players — the kids like Charlie Tilson who’re drafted just outside the first round and are torn between college and the pros.
I actually think the affect of the CBA on high school players is way overblown. It is surly not college scholarship money that will keep them from turning pro as most baseball scholarships are actually on 1/8 scholarship at best. The college experience may affect some of them but what about the experience of being a ball player. Most who have opted for college in the past did so in the expectation of improving their draft status and bigger bucks down the road. That may still be a consideration but the pot at the end of the rainbow (if they get there) is now smaller. The only ones that might be affected are those that have realistic pro chances in other sports and I think those are a very few.
I have been giving some thought as to how to get around the new CBA draft bonus pool limitations. It would seem one way would be to give most of the bonus amounts assigned to some combination of pick numbers 2 through 10 to the two 1st round and 3 compensation round picks that they have.
This would allow them to take more high upside high school picks in those 5 “first round” picks who will want higher bonuses.
Then with the picks in rounds 2-10 for which picks they have used some of the bonuses assigned to those rounds, they should pick easy signs such as high floor/lower ceiling college seniors who would build depth, after the first 5 picks give you high upside.
I am sure smart teams have already been brainstorming things like this, but since the Cards may be one of the last drafting teams with so many first round/compensation picks (due to the new compensation limitations), the Cards need to maximize the potential upside of those 5 picks within the new bonus limitations.
I think, at some place on one of the Cardinal Scout.com Forum threads, I think in response to a comment by you, Carioca, I indicated that I thought, if the Cards lose Molina as a free agent next offseason, if they offered the requisite salary to Molina, they would only get one compensation pick, not the two they would get under the previous rules (assuming he would have been a Type A free agent). I could not refind the thread to see if you concured with my read of the new rules. If you responded can you repeat your answer here? Thanks.
Since it is my understanding that, under the new rules, it will be difficult to accumulate a stash of 5 first round picks for any team going forward, that is why I would really like to see the Cards maximize the 5 picks it has this year, even if the college picks may be thin. With an excellent draft, with what depth and quality is already in the farm system, and considering that much of the Cards current depth and quality will probably not even surface to the major league team this season, then the statement in Keith Law’s ranking of the Cards’ system at #4 where he said the Cards have positioned themselves to contend for the next 5 years can maybe be extended to another 5 years, which would be sweet.
Teams with more picks in the draft get commensurately more bonus pool money to sign them. There is no need to “game” the system like you propose – the Cardinals should simply take the best player available at each pick and offer to pay them according to their slot. “High upside high school” picks are not going to be able to leverage a college commitment into much of anything under the new rules.
Yes, you are correct that, as a result of those 3 extra comp picks and the Angels pick in the first round, they will receive more bonus pool money, but for each pick in the first 10 rounds they signing bonus allocated decreases from the most for the first pick in round 1 to the least for the last pick in round 10.
I am only suggesting that, if it is necesary to buy a high upside high school player out of his college committment (which is worth alot of money with the cost of college for good out of state schools), you can do that my drafting college seniors who have no leverage and signing them for under slot bonuses and then using that money to potentially draft 5 high upside high school prospects with the 2 first round and and 3 comp round picks and giving them more than slot. I am suggesting this since apparently the excellent college players are not plentiful in this draft, and having 5 picks so early may never happen again, and you do not want to miss the opportunity to maximize talent picked in the upcoming draft.
Yes, I understand your idea. What I’m saying is that the new system obviates the need to do what you suggest and that it wouldn’t make any sense under the new system for a team to follow that plan.
Since you posted that comment about compensation, I have seen various articles reporting it various ways. This article indicates the forfeited pick goes to the team losing the player.
“Going forward, It appears possible that teams will still obtain two picks for losing free agents after offering arbitration. The signing team forfeits one of its top selections and the club obtains a selection at the end of the first round.”
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/cba-details-luxury-tax-draft-.html
others indicate only the supplemental pick goes to the losing team (as you have indicated)
Most are obviously ambiguous in their writing about the subject.
And even one thinks the supplemental lottery picks that start in 2013 come from those 1st round picks teams lose (first I heard that and dont think it is true since their are a fixed number of picks).
Draft picks that are forfeited by Clubs will be awarded to other Clubs through a lottery in which a Club’s odds of winning will be based on its prior season’s winning percentage and its prior season’s revenue.
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/11/29/2592711/the-impact-of-baseballs-new-cba-on-the-mets-free-agency
The bottom line is that I (like apparently a lot of people) am not sure and just dont know.
Thanks for your feedback. I agree that it is not clear how all of this will work. However obviously to a team like the Cards, it will make a difference, if they are unable to resign Molina, as to whether they get 2 picks or only one.
I tweeted Jim Callis from BA and he replied that the losing team gets both the signing team’s draft pick plus a comp pick (2 picks).
The problem with your theory would seem to be that even by enacting that strategy they might save 500K to a million dollar. Would that make much of a difference?
Maybe I wasn’t clear as to what I was suggesting. I did not mean they would “save” your suggested 500k to a million dollars (and pocket it). I am suggesting that whatever they saved by signing picks in the 2nd to 10th rounds by drafting, in some cases, easy college senior signs as an example, could be added to the alloted bonuses for their 2 first round and 3 comp round picks, thus potentially allowing them to pick in the comp round, for example, high school players that might want more money than the alloted bonuses to forego their college committment. That “saved” 500k to $1million might then make a difference in getting higher upside high school prospects as those 3 compensation round picks.
I didn’t mean saved (as in not to spend) either. I meant like you. but I doubt half a million will make that much of a difference in the ability to sign higher picks that are thinking about going to college.
I also think what you will see is some teams taking more flyers by buying out guys going to college who wouldnt get the big bucks. Where before they might have offered these types of guys $60K-$100K ( I think we gave Tyler Binghames $60K) they will offer more of these types of guys and for larger amounts – up to the $150K that doesn’t trigger any penalties. In other words, what they can’t pay for quality, they will try to make up for by paying for quantity and hoping one of these guys strikes it big.
I think the bonus limit for picks in round 11 and subsequently is $100000, not $150000. Any such bonus amounts above $100000 for picks in rounds 11 and later get deducted from your bonus pool for picks in the first 10 rounds.
Last comment is that the Cards can exceed their bonus pool for the first 10 rounds by up to 5% with only a fine of 75% of that overage. Anything above that causes the same dollar penalty but also the loss of a 1st round pick next year. I think the Cards should use that extra 5% to potentially sign someone in the first 10 rounds if necessary, although I also thought I read that if you exceed you bonus pool you are not eligible for one of the new “competitive balance draft picks” (six after round 1 and six after round 2), and I think I read that the Cards are currently in line, based on revenues, to potentially get one of those when they start in the 2013 draft, so using the 5% extra might be ultimately counterproductive.
Bottom line is that this will be very confusing until we see how it all plays out, but you can bet all (smart) teams are giving it thought already, and a team like the Cards with alot of extra picks have more variable to take into account so as to maximize those picks.
Baseball America put out an article on 2 top Dominican prospects waiting for paperwork to go through. Serrano was one of them. It has now been 7 months since the Cardinals signed him. I asked if the time was any indication of what they are finding/have found. He said that it’s surely indicates something unusual. I hope he ends up a Cardinals but I’m not confident in it.