Baseball Prospectus Top 11 Cardinal Prospects
Posted on February 13th, 2012 by azruavatar in Prospect rankingsKevin Goldstein released his list for the St. Louis Cardinals system on Friday. It’s subscription only for the full content but his top 11 are, generally, in line with everyone else’s. He’s a little down on Jenkins and has never been a fan of Cox. See for yourself below the jump but after you go and check out the full article.
1. Shelby Miller, RHP
2. Oscar Taveras, OF
3. Carlos Martinez, RHP
4. Matt Adams, 1B
5. Kolten Wong, 2B
6. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP
7. Zack Cox, 3B
8. Trevor Rosenthal, RHP
9. Jordan Swagerty, RHP
10. Matt Carpenter, 3B
11. Ryan Jackson, SS
Entries (RSS)
The top five make his overall Top 101 list, which was released today.
Interesting that he believes in Adams.
Agreed, and Adams is ranked in front of the likes of Rizzo, Singelton and Alonso. In fact, barring future position changes, Adams is the top ranked 1B in the game according to Goldstein. He must value Adams’ power over Rizzo and Alonso and his left-handedness over Singelton. Eat it Cubs!
Singleton bats LH.
Yebbut he values Matt Adams lefthandedness more…. ;o)
I find it exciting that we will probably see at least 5 (maybe as many as 7) of these guys at some point this season.
Miller, Adams, Wong, Cox, Swagerty, Carpenter, Jackson
I’d be surprised if Wong arrives already this year. There is a significant logjam at 2B on the 40-man roster. Yeah, they’re all mediocraties, but considering that they all also have value as utility guys, they’re not going to get cut or DFAed. Traded, maybe, but what could we get for Skippy?
The others do look possible, and I suspect there may be others who get their first cup of coffee as well. As I have remarked in the past, the Cardinals are actually above average in how many of their minor leaguers make it to the Show for at least that cup of coffee. If a system as weak (relatively speaking, although I think it’s been generally underrated) as this one for the last few years has allowed 8 players a year to reach the bigs for the first time, how many will make it this year, given the much greater overall strength of the system?
These things tend to sort themselves out. And if Kolten Wong is hitting and playing defense like an above average major league second baseman sometime in July or August, than I would bet that the front office will find a place for him.
Remember this isn’t a Tony LaRussa managed ball club anymore, and I doubt that a first year manager will have enough clout to keep replacement level player(Schumaker) and a slightly below/above player(Descalso) on the roster at the expense of a younger, better, cheaper talent.
And also, lets not forget that Kolten was is a three year college player. It shouldn’t take a player like that and a skill set like that, long to reach the major leagues.
True. But what if he is blocked?
Say Greene does a good job at second? Hits .270. Hits .20 HR and steals 20 bases?
Kdizzle,
It depends what is happening at the major league level. If Greene bombs, there might be some temptation. But if he does ok, then probably not. Wong does not get promoted…to be a roll player.
And Remember, Tony LaRussa acutally used more minor leaguers than other managers. The guy who might push Shew out of a job is Chambers, but he isn’t ready yet. I don’t see an immediate replacement for descalso. Let’s be honest, there are questions about Wong’s second base ability. So how is it invisioned that he can be a back up for shortstop and second base?
If we see 5 of these guys this year, either 1.) our season is completely in the toilet due to non-performance and injury, OR 2.) Our farmhands have one of the most transcendent seasons in minor league history.
Suffice it to say, I don’t think we will be seeing 5 of these guys, unless very briefly during September, which I realize you may have taken into account.
Don’t be so sure. As I said, the Cardinals have averaged 7 or 8 guys a year who debut in the Show for at least a cup of coffee. Many are simple “break glass in emergency” types who are pressed into service because of short-term injuries, as M. Carpenter, Kozma, Cleto, etc., were last year. However, some stick (Cruz, Sanchez, Lynn).
I think the chances are quite good that we’ll see five from this list in the bigs, at least in September, and we might also see some cup-of-coffee guys like Gast, if injuries require it. Last year wasn’t a particularly difficult year for the Cardinals in terms of injuries, yet nine players made their major-league debuts for the team (Brown, Carpenter, Chambers, Cleto, Cruz, Dickson, Kozma, Lynn, Sanchez). Note that nearly half of those guys wouldn’t have made the top-20 list. I would expect the number to be somewhat smaller this year, simply because so many did make it in 2011 and several have stuck, but there’ll still be more than you might think.
All of those with the exception of Cleto went from either significant amount of time in AA or were in AAA to the major leagues. You’re talking about a guy (Wong) whose never been above Low-A ball to make a jump that high. He starts the year out in Palm Beach IMO, with a midseason promotion to AA. Maybe he can be the starting 2B in 2013, but given the organizational ladder it appears 2014 is more likely.
Adams, Cox, Miller, and Jackson all figure to be September call ups, while Carpenter is more of if Freese will miss significant time.
That’s what I think too. He’s going to make AA by the end of this year if things go well and have a chance at the major league roster in 2013. However, that’s all best case. Realistically you could look for him to have a significant role in 2014.
I haven’t seen this posted anywhere, but Keith Law’s top 100 is out. Definitely worth the read, but it is subscription only at espn. (sorry, not sure how to link from the iPad)
He has six cards in the top 100. (Miller 5th, martinez 20 ish, Tavares 53rd, cox 65ish, Jenkins 75ish, and Swagerty 95ish) He also had Rosenthal on his ten that just missed list. He ranked the cards as the fourth best system. Law seems to rank more on upside than likelihood to reach the majors. I was slightly surprised to see Swagerty on the list compared to Adams or Wong.
It definitely is exciting that up to 9 of our prospects are considered top 110 prospects by different minor league publications.
I am pretty surprised to see Swagerty get such love….especially ahead of Adams. It is cool that KLaw is showing the Birds on Bat some love. It is very exciting to see that we have a bunch of guys that can help the big club in some fashion, be it directly or indirectly.
I dont see Swagerty as an “upside pick”. I may be wrong but I don’t see him as anything more than a max #3 talent but I see him as pretty sure thing to either be a back of the rotation or solid reliever guy. Even Cox at #65 I dont see as an upside pick. His upside is very good but probably not great. But he is a solid bet to hit (whether he turns out very good or not will depend on his power). At #65 I see him as a low risk but relatively low reward for that high.
The Cardinals have also been reluctant to bring up players that are not on their 40 man roster so we have a lot bigger chance of seeing Ottavino, Freeman and Fick before someone like Swags.
If Greene has that type of year, with a respectable OBP, he’ll be our starting SS in two years (maybe even next year) and Wong will be the startin 2B in 2014