First Round Catchers: 2005-2011
Posted on February 22nd, 2012 by azruavatar in analysis, tags: 2012 MLB Draft, St. Louis Cardinals, Stryker TrahanStryker Trahan is a name I’ve heard tossed around by some in connection to the Cardinals this coming draft. At the moment, he’s generally regarded as the best backstop available in the 2012 draft. He’s currently in high school with a commitment to Ole Miss but should someone wave first round money at him, there’s a sense that he’d take it.
He’s a good catcher with better athleticism than your typical plodding catcher. A solid line drive swing helps to augment his power projection and overall hitting ability. He’s as near to a complete package as a high school backstop can be.
Taking a look at the catchers selected in the first or first supplemental round, we’ll see that they are, like all prospects, hit or miss.
| Year | Pick | Team | Name | Reached Majors Yet? |
| 2011 | 26 | Red Sox | Blake Swihart | |
| 2011 | 54 | Padres | Brett Austin | |
| 2010 | 12 | Reds | Yasmani Grandal | |
| 2010 | 22 | Rangers | Kellin Deglan | |
| 2010 | 31 | Rays | Justin O’Conner | |
| 2010 | 30 | Astros | Mike Kvasnicka | |
| 2009 | 4 | Pirates | Tony Sanchez | |
| 2009 | 33 | Mariners | Steven Baron | |
| 2009 | 38 | White Sox | Josh Phegley | |
| 2008 | 5 | Giants | Buster Posey | Y |
| 2008 | 6 | Marlins | Jason Skipworth | |
| 2008 | 10 | Astros | Jason Castro | Y |
| 2007 | 5 | Orioles | Matt Wieters | Y |
| 2007 | 15 | Reds | Devin Mesoraco | Y |
| 2007 | 21 | Blue Jays | J.P. Arencibia | Y |
| 2007 | 37 | Phillies | Travis d’Arnaud | |
| 2007 | 43 | Giants | Jackson Williams | |
| 2007 | 48 | Cubs | Josh Donaldson | Y |
| 2007 | 57 | Padres | Mitch Canham | |
| 2007 | 61 | Diamondbacks | Ed Easley | |
| 2006 | 23 | Astros | Maxwell Sapp | |
| 2006 | 25 | Angels | Hank Conger | Y |
| 2005 | 3 | Mariners | Jeff Clement | Y |
| 2005 | 13 | Orioles | Brandon Snyder | Y |
There’s a couple of names that stick out as players who should have a very good career: Matt Wieters and Buster Posey. Both were highly regarded prospects drafted out of college. There’s also a mess of players that look like they’ll never make the majors and a few who no longer play catcher.
I don’t want to over-reach with any conclusions. This is extremely anecdotal in nature and while you could draw conclusions about catcher’s from a more comprehensive study, I often think that those types of conclusions are overstated in their application to first round picks as individuals. Stryker Trahan is an excellent draft prospect and there’s a very real chance (you could probably say it’s “likely”) that he’s selected prior to the Cardinals’ first pick. Given the rather underwhelming state of the Cardinals minor league catching prospects right now and the fact that Trahan could also be the best player on the board at pick number 19, pay attention to him as the season progresses. You can be sure the Cardinals are.
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Interesting post, AZ. Trahan seems to be all over the board with prospect analysts. One guy (I think at minorleagueball.com) had him rated at or near the top 10, in the “no way he drops to us” range. But Frankie Piliere at scout.com has him at #80 overall.
BA typically seems to have the best sense of where guys will actually go, but you have to wait until a day or two before the draft before they settle on first-round predictions.
All that said, it would be great to get a real catching prospect, a potential impact player. Even if Yadi re-signs, it’s not likely to be for more than 4 years, so by the time his contract ends a guy like Trahan could be ready to take over.
Freudian slip? “…as a high school BACKUP can be.” I believe that should have been backSTOP, unless you’re making a statement about his potential ceiling….
Heh. Simple slip, yes. Fixed.
Freudian slip: When you say one thing but mean your mother.
You draft catching prospects on hitting ability and how athletic they are…I really would not worry about anything else. Defensive nuances do not matter. Good athletes should be able to learn to physically play the position and if they cant good hitters can switch to other positions. Always draft catching prospects with a plan B.
This was my main problem with the Stock selection. He was a fine pick but you had to take the plan B as soon as it appeared he wouldn’t hit.
If you can show me more than half a dozen players who have transferred from other positions to catcher, and then gone on to have good major-league careers — EVER — then I might take this seriously.
He’s not saying that non-catchers would transfer to catching, he’s saying a team should draft catchers who can hit, and then teach them defense, and if they can’t pick up the defensive aspects, move them to a different position.
This what I am getting at…kids have to want to catch. I am not saying to draft SS and turn them into catchers. You want to draft athletic looking catchers that can hit. I can think of a decent amount of players that were drafted at catcher and moved.
The thing is that drafting the catcher position is a scouting problem not a statistics problem. The tools of receiving, catch and throw, blocking pitches are not easily measured. And I think we have seen that the scouts eyes are bias to body types and this colors the bias of the actual skills. Mind you Molina is a good physical type for the position but it is always better to draft athletes that catch than good catchers.
I’m not necessarily arguing about your statements regarding how to approach drafting a cather, though I’m not sure I agree with them either. I do quibble with your initial assertion that “defensive nuances do not matter” and “athletes should be able to learn the position.” Being a good defensive cather has a dramatically different tool/athletic skill set than most other things. Nuances like framing a pitch properly and being quick into your throw or quick to pounce on bunts and swinging bunts, etc depend on inate ability as much as being taught or refining your ability. To give an exaggerated analogy to try to explain what I mean: simply because someone is a good athlete does not necessarily mean they can just “learn” or be “taught” the kind of steady hand / fine motor skills needed to be a great surgeon – even though we are still talking about a physical ability. It’s a physical ability that is not necessarily related to traeditional notions of “being athletic.” Further, there is a strong mental component to being a good to great defensive catcher that has nothing to do with athleticism at all. Similarly, while such abilities can be taught or refined, it doesn’t mean just anyone can be taught to preform on an elite level.
Look at Yadi (one example, I know, but these traits are generally common to great defensive catcher, he is the one we will all be most familiar with). He is anything but athletic in a traditional sense. But he has all the athletic ability in the world in terms of what matters to being a catcher. He is incredibly quick (probably his most underrated ability), he has “soft” hands and fine control over their movement (which inables him to subtley frame pitches an inch or two rather than jerking the ball six inches away from where he caught it). These abilities are decidedly different than being “athletic” and being “athletic” doesn’t mean you have those abilities. Of course, being athletic doesn’t mean you DON’T have those abilities, I’m just saying the two aren’t necessarily correlated.
If you draft athletic, good hitting catching prospects while largely ignoring their defense, you will end up with athletic catchers who are good hitters and bad defensive cathcers/will have to change positions the vast majority of the time. You can argue that’s a good thing or not a bad thing, and perhaps you would be right (though I don’t think so), but to think you will end up with good or even serviceable major league catchers defensively just because you can teach them to catch is misguided. I’d also point out that if guys you draft like that can really hit well enough to offset the likely bad defense and still be a positive overall, you will likely want to move them away from being a catcher to avoid injury and/or prolong their career. Look at Buster Posey and Joe Mauer. The Giants are already talking about moving Posey after that injury and I can guarantee you the Twins wish they could have convinced Mauer to move several years ago.
Personally, I think that kind of draft strategy will leave you a lot of bad defensive catchers, some of whom are really good hitters. If you want to move the really good hitters away from catcher to prolong their carreer/make sure they stay really good hitters, you will be left with a lot of average to bad hitting catchers who are also bad defensive catchers as your major league backstop.
What I am saying is that it is very difficult to scout the defensive skill of catchers because it like hitting depends on the level. You will have a horrible time scouting the difference between an excellent high school catcher and a excellent high school catcher that could develop into a major league catcher. This is based on someone eyes looking at a player and it has been proven over and over again that these guys cant scout catching ability, there is no metric.
Agree with the catching prospect who can hit idea. If he shows a hit tool with power then he could be moved to any of the corner positions.
After pondering this a lot after it was brought up on here a while back, I’m actually all for trading Carlos Martinez and I really think Cox is redundant as well. CMart has huge value and Cox isn’t a box of girl scout cookies either. I’m highly curious what you guys/gals think we could get back for a package of the two. On most rankings lists there are 4 young SS prospects that I would be ok giving up both of them for. Thoughts/Ideas/Proposals??
I would want Major League talent. We would need to solve one of the long term catcher, CF, SS problems the team has. Az had Peter Bourjos as a potential target. I do think there is a list of Angles players that you could put a decent trade together with…
Just shooting the shit
Molina and C-Mart for Bourjos and Kendrys Morales.
Cox maybe but never CMart!! He’s going to be a good one.
Why does it have to be major league talent?? I agree that if a great opportunity came up then yes, but I don’t think it’s a must….. A high upside SS or CF would be just fine in my opinion as well.
Regarding the comment “Cox maybe but never CMart!! He’s going to be a good one.” I agree that he has the upside of being a great and amazing, but he also could fall apart and end up being a reliever or injured because of his frame and delivery. I love him in our system, don’t get me wrong and I’ll root for him all daylong, but if we could trade him while his value is high and get something of equal or greater return then let’s do it.
Let’s hear the thoughts on this trade: Carlos Martinez and Zach Cox to Baltimore for Manny Machado….. OR….. those to for Profar. I personally would take that trade all day long!
Ive never heard of a trade of prospects for prospects. My memory isnt the best, but it just doesnt seem to happen often.
What’s that old saying ” A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush”. I go with that!!
Robert Stock is still only 22 and apparently has done enough to remain as a catcher. Anybody think he has upside? I wish I knew more about his skill level as a catcher. I assume he’s got a gun his career CS rate in the minors is 29%, which doesn’t engender confidence. He had an OBP of .339 in A+ (171 ab’s) with a 10.5% walk rate. A strong defensive catcher capable of getting on base at a reasonable rate, even with no power, would be valuable to our system. Happy to hear observations from anybody who has actually seen Stock behind the plate.
Word I hear is poor footwork. (but admittedly that report i from 2010). Despite the discussion above that you can teach good athletes to be catchers, old (bad) habits can be hard to break.
I think he has some upside, just based on age and pedigree. He had 0 passed balls and zero errors last year in PB. That’s not the end-all-be-all of course but that’s better than his C compatriot, Luis De La Cruz, with 10 errors and 7 passed balls. Stock’s CS% wasn’t awful, it was 32% over the entire year (QC and PB).
Also Stock had a .358 wOBAr last year. That’s pretty good. Better than some guys like Starlin Rodriguez, who some people are high on.
Basically he takes more walks than he strikes out and he’s had unlucky BABIP’s given his LD% – that’s not bad. Let’s see what he does this year.
Obviously Stock has a great arm and is a great backstop. I don’t think you can put much stock (no pun intended) in his 29% CS rate. At that level pitchers may not be doing an adequate job holding runners on.
Stock’s bat is much maligned. The kid hit well in JC. He had a knee injury in QC which may have contributed to a horrible start there. He seemed to improve nicely in Palm Beach. He has some power and is a contact guy.
This year should tell us a lot more about the player. The Cards unwillingness to pull the plug on Stock’s catching is well conceived in my opinion. He’s probably our best candidate for a Molina replacement down the road that is currently in the system.
Can’t say I agree, I saw him quite a bit at QC and he’s just not very good in my opinion. Has very little power, even batting average is low, rarely hit the ball hard. He may have improved at Palm Beach but he just wasn’t very good in Quad CIties. I don’t think the team is holding onto him at catcher more so than they don’t see him being anything as a pitcher so might as well give him time to develop as a catcher. Hopefully he’s improved since he left QC but he just hasn’t been good as a catcher. I saw Stanley catch last year and he was a much better reciever than Stock.
Whatever. Like I said, he was injured while in QC which may have affected his hitting. I saw both and disagree with you.
What year did you see him? I’m talking about ALL of 2010, not the injury from 2011.
While in JC the previous year he had a .936 OPS to include 7 HRs in 149 ABs. Clearly he has some power even if he never seemed to show it in QC.
I saw him catch a game for QC. His glove work didn’t look great and he failed to block a couple of pitches that I thought he should have. But he did throw 2 runners out. Others have said his hit tool isn’t great, but like you, I liked his OBP – especially for a catcher. I’m still trying to figure out how he got an NRI over some older catchers given the reports I read on Stock. At the very least, I think we can surmize that the Cards have a better projection on him at catcher than some folks.
Thanks for the feedback. 2012 should tell us a lot more about Robert Stock.
Hmmm where to start; I’ve stated my opinion on these issues before, but I will reiterate. If Trahan has been drafted before out first pick, then Josh Elander is my choice to take with our second 1st rounder.
Zack Cox is excellent trade bait and I’d fork him over to Texas in a heart-beat for ss prospect Jurickson Profar. The Rangers have Andrus already at short so Profar could be available. Plus, Cox is closer to being a sure thing since he is only a year away from the majors. Jurickson is 3 or 4 seasons away.
CLARK: Trading prospects for prospects you may not have heard of because Mozeliak doesn’t do it. It’s smart management to take farm system depth in one area and turn it into a strength in another. Use Brett Wallace as an example. We traded him to Oakland in the Holliday deal of course. Oakland turned around and traded him to Toronto for Michael Taylor, however, Toronto didn’t really want him. The object of their affection was minor leaguer Anthony Gose and they tested the waters and found Houston didn’t want Taylor, but they were interested in Wallace so they made that deal. They then flipped Brett to Houston later on for the guy they really wanted and that was Gose. Oakland has always been terrific at trading for prospects. Toronto’s Alex Anthoupolous (sp) has been building the Jays farm system by acquiring prospects for major leaguers and also minor leaguers for minor leaguers.
I’d do Cox for Profar in a heartbeat too, but let’s be blunt: Texas would be completely nuts to make this trade. Profar is a top-10 prospect, ranked as high as 4th overall (behind the Harper/Trout/Moore trio of doom) in some compilations. You don’t trade a guy like that for a player with as limited an upside as Cox, no matter what their relative levels of readiness. If you’re going to speculate on prospects-for-prospects trades, at least speculate on realistic ones.
How about Cox and $$$ to help Texas pay for their new pitcher!!
Okay, so what would you consider realistic for Profar?
Taveras for Profar is not a grossly unbalanced trade. Taveras is and will remain the better hitter, by a margin that, in my view, almost exactly compensates for the fact that Profar plays a much more difficult defensive position, plays it unusually well, and likely will be able to stay there. Most sources call Profar the better prospect, in some cases by a considerable margin. I’m not sure I see that (largely because I think Taveras is underrated), but it would be hard to argue that that trade would favor Texas. I would also consider C-Mart for Profar a reasonable trade.
Honestly, outside of the big 3 (Harper/Trout/Moore), I really can’t see the Rangers trading Profar. There is no reason to especially with the dearth of quality SS prospects.
azruavatar, what about Mike Zunino [C; Florida]? He hit .371 with 19 HR and a K/BB ratio of 1.625 last year helping the Gators. Overtook Austin Maddox the incumbent starting catcher last year, and really played extremely well. He displayed above-average defense behind the plate and natural leadership ability with one of the strongest arms in the SEC last year. Assuming he has a good year, he’s got to be a top ten pick. Might not be a star, but he’s going to be a really good catcher IMO.
Profar had a great 2011 minor league showing. I just need to see it repeated before talking about trading players like Taveras. In fact, I could never bring myself to make that trade.
I know all about the skill position. But hey, if Jackson’s bat plays, how badly do we need Profar anyway? Sure, Cox is expendable. But, no way is Taveras. Of course it’s a trade Texas might make given that they’ve already got a great SS. I just don’t think it’s a wise trade for us. Without Taveras, suddenly our outfield looks pretty spotty down the road despite a few CF prospects all of whom may fall on their faces.
If Texas wouldn’t make that trade, I’m fine with that too.
“Profar had a great 2011 minor league showing. I just need to see it repeated before talking about trading players like Taveras.” You do realize, don’t you, that that sentence would make exactly as much sense if you swapped the positions of the two proper nouns?
The thing about Profar is that the scouts are pretty well unanimous that he’s a can’t-miss kind of talent. Yes, if Jackson’s bat plays, he’s a shortstop solution. However, that’s a big “if,” and the scouts are all saying that Profar’s bat WILL play. They are by no means so sure about Jackson, or for that matter, Taveras. There comes a time when it’s necessary to listen to those scouts.
Re: “Profar had a great 2011 minor league showing. I just need to see it repeated before talking about trading players like Taveras.” You do realize, don’t you, that that sentence would make exactly as much sense if you swapped the positions of the two proper nouns?
Not sure that is true. Taveras has had 2 outstanding years. Profar only has the one. Surely you aren’t touting Profar’s 2010?
Sure, you can take what the scouts say as gospel if you wish. I’m not willing to do that yet. You can’t bank what the scouts say. They say a lot of things and sometimes are right. Sometimes they’re wrong.