In my piece for Viva El Birdos on Sunday, I recapped a little of Tyler Greene’s history.  Prospect watchers will probably have been familiar with the term “prospect fatigue” and it’s connotative use with Greene but there’s another player this year — who likely has less of a shot at the major league roster right out of Spring Training — that I actually think of first when using the term prospect fatigue: Adam Ottavino.

The Cardinals drafted Ottavino in the first round of 2006 with the 30th overall pick. He was a college righty coming from Northeastern University with good fastball velocity and a potentially plus-plus slider.  After 6 years in the system, Ottavino has failed to make the majors as a starter. His performance has been hit or miss at times but never strong enough to thrust his name into real contention for a rotation spot. He’s had injuries to rehab and now appears to be headed to the bullpen exclusively.

This is likely to be a good thing for Ottavino’s career. With a changeup that still leaves him vulnerable to left-handers, the bullpen should help minimize his weaknesses and maximize his strengths.   There’s plenty of ways to parse the numbers for Ottavino but this year will be definitive towards his future in baseball. That said, his past, and the mini-controversies that he’s been involved in, are a fascinating recollection.

[ed. note: What follows is a brief history of Adam Ottavino with the Cardinals. It is not intended as a judgment of any person(s) but is simply a footnote in the history of a prospect.]

Where Tyler Greene’s public history with the club is straightforward and mostly kept behind closed doors, Adam Ottavino had the ill-fortune of being a prospect right on the heels of the Anthony Reyes brouhaha.  The back story was that Reyes was a top prospect all through the minors. Upon reaching the majors (or at least the precipice of the majors in AAA), the major league coaching staff came to the decision that Reyes couldn’t succeed with just his four seam fastball but needed a two seam fastball or sinker.

The disagreement became public and eventually led to Dave Duncan and Dyar Miller both making independent statements with very different conclusions. Duncan was firmly of the opinion that the sinker was necessary for Reyes’ career in the majors and Miller was of the opinion that if Reyes could command his four seam fastball down in the zone, a true sinker was unnecessary. Neither coach made their statements in direct opposition to one another but it fed the narrative of rifts within the front office and the coaching staff.

In 2006, at the height of the Anthony Reyes conversation, Larry Borowsky, aka LBoros, did an interview with Ottavino for VEB titled “the indoctrination of adam”. While the title may read a bit inflammatory now, there was substantive precedent for what was going on in the system with a seemingly forceful conversion of high velocity pitchers into groundball oriented pitchers. (Some of this stems back to disagreements between the draft organization, read: Luhnow, and other parts of the front office and coaching staff.)  In the interview, was the following exchange [ed. note: lack of capitalization is a trademark of LBoros writing at VEB]:

tell me a little bit about your repertoire. you said your fastball’s in the mid-90s, upper end. what else do you throw?

i usually throw between 90 and 94; i can get to 95, 96 a few times in a game. in college ball i was trying to strike a lot of batters out, so i was pretty much throwing a lot of 4-seamers up in the strike zone, but since i got here the cardinals have really preached to me the pitching to contact and throwing to ground balls. i have a good sinker that i’m developing right now, and that’s become my main pitch that i’ve been working on since i’ve been in pro ball. i’m struggling a little bit with it right now, at times, because it’s a new philosophy and a new thing and i’m just not used to it yet.

Adam would go on to discuss how he was learning the benefits of pitching to contact and a two-seamer. It was an amicable exchange and didn’t really hint at discontent by the pitcher. When pressed further, it was evident that the new pitching style wasn’t comfortable even if Ottavino was striving to enact it:

is it difficult when you have had a ton of success pitching with a certain style, and then you come in to begin your pro career and start blowing guys away — if i remember correctly, you didn’t allow an earned run in your first 20 innings or so at state college — and then you have to start learning something new and struggle with it, does that produce a desire to go back to what used to work for you?
yeah, there is some of that. but at the same time, i’ve shown flashes with this new thing that i’m learning. and it’s not a huge change; it’s just a little bit of a mental change and a little bit of a mechanical change, and some things take repetition.

While this is a single interview, it has to be contextualized in the writing of the time. With Anthony Reyes and the surprisingly public disagreement between coaches, the blogs were not the only ones documenting this discrepancy. While the article is buried someone in the STLtoday archives, in his second interview with Adam Ottavino, about one year later, LBoros quotes this from Derrick Goold noting, as LBoros terms it, “a retreat” from the pitch to contact philosohpy:

“The two-seam fastball [Ottavino] tested last summer at the request of the Cardinals essentially has been stowed for his higher-speed and comfier four-seam fastball” – Goold’s writing

“It has been hard to adjust to the idea that I want the other guy to hit the ball.” – Ottavino’s quote in Goold’s article

As LBoros’s conversation continues, you’ll note the beginnings of the public relations retreat by Ottavino:

There was another piece of the tool kit I wanted to ask you about. When you talked to Derrick Goold, he wrote an article in the Post-Dispatch about the 2-seamer vs the 4-seamer. That’s become a big topic for people who follow this organization. It sounded like the transition to the 2, which you began throwing last year, had become a little uneasy for you. Tell me where you are with that, and what your relationship with the pitch is.
I just want to be clear about this: I’m not against throwing any pitch. I do throw 2-seamers in the games; I just think I’m a different pitcher than a lot of guys in the system. And I’ve discussed this with my coaches: The high fastball can be effective for me. I get a lot of strikeouts with it. And for me, a strikeout is the safest way to get an out. I know that I shouldn’t be shooting for strikeouts all the time, because that’s how your pitch counts get high. But there are certain circumstances where I gotta limit the damage right there, and I gotta go for the strikeout. That’s just inside me. It’s the way I’ve always pitched, and it’s tough to get away from that.

That second interview focuses heavily on the two-seam fastball discussion and I’d encourage you to read the whole thing as it’s a fascinating remembrance of a once hot topic.

In 2008, the Anthony Reyes controversy (and Adam Ottavino’s unfortunate side show in it) were an afterthought to the farm system. The burgeoning Colby Rasmus was just a year away from his own fiasco and Adam Ottavino was just another player in the system: a first round pick that still had potential but hadn’t fully realized it.  That summer, Erik Manning, the founder of Future Redbirds, traded some questions and answers with Ottavino and the public relation lines were in full effect. Ottavino replied:

As far as the sinker goes, I feel that it was a little overblown to begin with. No one is forcing this down anyone’s throat. Obviously as an organization there is a preference for ground ball pitchers, but I don’t think the Cardinals are alone in that preference. There are a variety of ways to get groundballs. The sinker is a pitch that ends up in the low part of the zone often, and I do use it. I use it in contrast with my 4 seam fastball.

While none of this is in direct contradiction to his previous statements, it’s clear that the candor of earlier interviews was more muted.  It’s neither surprising nor uncharacteristic to see players provide answers that are more practiced and neutral as they progress through the ranks. That is as much a part of their learning process as throwing a two seam fastball.

While the recent comments of Colby Rasmus are perceived by many fans as out of line, controversy is not a new thing to the Cardinals’ young players. It will probably never go away — and I hope it doesn’t as it inevitably provides insight into the organizations workings — given the youth and unrefined media presence that young players are. Nothing that Adam Ottavino said was malicious or hateful; it likely wasn’t the most prudent phrasing either.

Adam Ottavino is at Spring Training, newly added to the 40-man roster. He has a new role as a reliever and a new opportunity to prove himself a major league player. It will take time and work and with a little luck, he’ll have success. His history as a prospect is six years in the making and one of the more colorful back stories among prospects still in the Cardinals’ system.

So while it may seem fatiguing to read another story on Adam Ottavino at times, just remember that it could be another story about Adam Ottavino and two seam fastballs instead.

References:
“the indoctrination of adam” – Viva el Birdos
“being adam ottaivno: ‘a lot to learn about myself’” – Viva el Birdos
“Q and A with Adam Ottavino” – Future Redbirds
“Unplugged: Colby Rasmus sounds like a new man, but the St. Louis blues cut deep” – National Post

39 Responses to “Prospect Fatigue and the Tale of Adam Ottavino”
  1. zuke354 says:

    Nice post. Good stuff.

    What is also interesting is that in the more reliance on saber stats, how many teams are now finding value in ground ball rates. Somthing many fans and media dogged the cards for loving and encouraging.

    Didn’t Duncan also have an issue with Reyes delivery?

    • Forsch31 says:

      As far as Duncan goes…if I’m remembering correctly, when Duncan attempted to teach Reyes the two-seamer/sinker, Anthony had been losing velocity, and the idea was that Reyes probably wouldn’t have success with a lower velocity four-seamer, so he needed another pitch. Duncan always struck me more as a “fixer-upper” pitching coach than a developmental one, and my impression was that he was trying to get the most out of Reyes and give him a longer career based on what he was seeing, but Reyes was never comfortable with it. I think it was Erik who really pointed out the problems with Reyes’ mechanics, which foretold of the elbow problems that he encountered just a couple of seasons later and has pretty much ended his career. I think Duncan recognized the same issues, which is why he took the tack he did. Reyes did in fact attempt to change his arm slot going into his last season with St. Louis, but I’m not sure if that was at the organization’s urging or his own attempt to solve some issues.

      As far as Ottavino goes…I’ve never really been a fan of his–I don’t think I ever had him on my personal list. Ottavino always was seemed to be changing his mechanics while he struggled with his command. When the Cardinals attempted their “classic mechanics” pitching pilot camp back in 2008, Ottavino was a centerpiece, and it didn’t really work for him, either. I think the issue with Ottavino is that the tinkering went a lot deeper than teaching him the two-seamer and a groundball philosophy.

      • Forsch31 says:

        Here’s a December 2008 blog entry from Goold on Ottavino: http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/st-louis-cardinals-community-top-picking-no/article_5d5390bb-3a60-5c5e-8264-dc0a82a8a73f.html

        “Ottavino has an explosive fastball that he rode to success in college. They Cardinals asked him to make more use of his two-seam, running fastball, and he eventually he embraced the idea with some success. He throws in the mid-90s. He had that easy delivery, not too different than Chris Carpenter’s.

        But in 2008, he struggled to be consistent with any delivery and that led to a difficult time with his command. At least once this season, a coach was dispatched to Springfield to work with Ottavino and snap his funky mechanics. This winter, he went to Arizona where a coach told him to stop raising his hands high over his head, almost Hideo Nomo-like, before winding into his delivery. He didn’t have the best numbers in Arizona, but he had a couple uplifting appearances in relief.”

  2. UofIx3 says:

    Colby has the same awkward interactions with the press now, a number of year into the majors, as he did when he started.

    When he first came up and was interviewed, you could tell he’d rather be hit in the head with a break than to talk, but unfortunately for him, it’s part of the gig and he never really got better at it.

    Of course, it would be hard to do, even if he weren’t stuck between two towering egos like his father and TLR.

    TLR always had trouble with laconic, Southern outfielders. I’d love to see what Drew and Rasmus could have done without Tony’s style.

    I don’t blame either side; just a bad fit.

    • zuke354 says:

      i am not sure its a sutherner thing. I am sure Tony has had guys from the south that have gotten along just fine. I think its more coincidence that they both happen to be from the south. Seems like LaRussa and Wainright got along just fine.

      I think its more of a committment to winning. It seems the guys who Tony gets along with the best are the guys committed to winning. The ones he has issues with are those who put themselves above the team. Ozzie Smith, Rasmus, Drew, Reyes, etc.

  3. IllinoisCardinalFan says:

    The pattern I see with TLR is first round draft picks, Looper, Kennedy, Drew, Rasmus, Greene and Perez. Matt Morris may be the exception here, but first round draft picks did not seem to flourish during the LaRussa era.

    Now of course if you look at the first round draft picks of any team you can find a long list of first round picks that never made it,. Of course we could debate whether this was because of poor drafting, a poor draft position in general (the highest pick above is Looper at number 3), poor development in the farm system or the manager. Looper probably belongs in the poor drafting category being the Cardinals highest draft pick ever at number 3, but in 16 years, only one first round draft pick, Morris, that had a good career with your team still seems like a rather poor record.

    • Gruntosaurus says:

      I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: the average late-first-round draft choice does NOT have “a good career with your team.” It is instructive to browse the baseball-reference.com compilations of draftees for the 15th through 25th slots overall, which is where the Cardinals have been drafting for nearly all of the last 16 years. On average, during that time, no more than one or two draftees in each of those slots has had a good career with the team that drafted them. In a really good slot there might be as many as four good careers out of 16 draftees. For some slots there have been none, zero, zip.

      Given where they have been drafting, the Cardinals’ record with first rounders has not been unusually poor. It’s simply the price we pay for almost never getting a top choice (the number of “good careers” by guys drafted in the first five slots is much higher). I, for one, am willing to pay that price, but some realism is needed in looking at the way the drafts have worked out as a result.

      • Gruntosaurus says:

        To put a little more rigor on this, here are the players drafted since 1995 (inclusive) in various draft slots who have gone on to have “good careers” (some subjectivity in this, but figure at least 5 WAR or so) for the team that drafted them. It’s a short list. It does not include those who had “good careers” for teams other than the one that drafted them — as have, for example, Adam Kennedy and others on your “pattern.”
        15th slot: 2 (Stephen Drew, Chase Utley)
        16th slot: 1 (Lance Berkman)
        17th slot: 3 (Cole Hamels, Brad Lidge, Roy Halladay – yeah, that’s a good slot…)
        18th slot: none (R. A. Dickey’s best years were after he was traded – note that Kozma was taken in this slot)
        19th slot: 1 or 2 (James Loney, maybe Alex Rios)
        20th slot: 3 or 4 (Chad Cordero, Denard Span, CC Sabathia, maybe Eric Milton – this was Kennedy’s slot, but most of his value was with other teams)
        21st slot: 1 (Cliff Pennington, although JP Arencibia will probably join him)
        22nd slot: maybe 1 (Gil Meche?; several other good careers in this slot, but all with teams other than the drafting one)
        23rd slot: 1 (Jacoby Ellsbury)
        24th slot: 1 or 2 (Chad Billingsley, maybe Joe Blanton)
        25th slot: 1 or 2 (Matt Cain, Bobby Crosby?)

        So again, on average, slightly more than 1 player out of 17 drafted in the late first round has a “good” career with the team that drafted them. The odds just aren’t that good.

  4. jjray says:

    There has been much discussion of Tyler Greene getting a new lease on his Cardinal life in the post-TLR era. Perhaps, to a lesser extent, Ottavino may experience the same renaissance. I think Boggs is arb eligible next year. If so, the Cards may be interested in a long-reliever still making league minimum. Could be an opening for Ottavino if he can establish himself in the pen this season. Maybe even an uptick in velo in the pen.

    • zuke354 says:

      I disagree. I think the strength of the system hurts Ottavino. As far as RH releif is concerned, he was lapped by a host of other pitchers.

      When you look at it, who is he going to be out when compared to who they currently have, and who is on the way.

      • jjray says:

        Who else do you see as a long reliever in the high minors who is MLB ready? Dickson and then ??? Is Reifer a long-reliever? They appear to be intent on keep Swagerty in the minor leagues as a starter. It is the the Brad “puppy kicker” Thompson roster slot. I think Ottavino has a shot at redemption this season. That’s not to say I view him as a better relief prospect than Sanchez, Reifer or Swagerty, just that a slot may open up for him in long relief to which he is well suited.

        • zuke354 says:

          From the long releiver position, it is a good point. But again, roster management is an issue.

          I still think he has a good chance at releif, but its wrong place, wrong time for him and the cardinals.

          • jjray says:

            Agree he won’t make the 25 man roster out of camp. Last year I thought Ottavino was toast with the Cards. The org appeared to give up on him. So it came as a surprise that he was added back onto to the 40 man roster. By redemption, I only mean he has a chance to pitch himself into a callup during 2012 and, then, into competition for the long-reliever roster slot in 2013. I don’t know if the change in regime will effect Boggs. At one point he was the closer during 2011, then abruptly got demoted to Memphis. I think he needs to pitch his way out of long relief further up the bullpen pecking order or the team will non-tender him after this season.

    • T-Bird says:

      I agree with Zuke here. The cardinals have a number of cost controlled relievers and Reifer, Swaggerty and Cleto on the way. Ottavino is going to be hurt by the numbers crunch. With the payroll flexibility the cardinals should enjoy over the next handful of years, they can afford to pay the arbitration salaries of RH relievers. Only way this is gonna change is if Ottavino out-performs the other guys, and he certainly has the FB and SL to do just that.

  5. 51 says:

    Wasn’t it a torn labrum that derailed Ottavino’s career?

  6. IllinoisCardinalFan says:

    Interesting info on the draft slots. Thanks for the research. I did look through some info on first round picks for other teams before I posted but did not dig into it as much as you did. The Phillies seemed to have the best run of mid first round picks. Teams should try to figure out what they have been doing.

    I’ve always thought that the question about whether or not TLR was good at developing talent from the farm system was an interesting one. He has had some obvious successes, but has received a good amount of criticism for what seemed like failures with players like Rasmus, and because player evaluation and development is so difficult to quantify I have always gone back and forth on the answer.

    It does seem hard to believe that smart businessmen would spend money on players that only have a 5.89% chance to succeed?

    • zuke354 says:

      The book is still not written on Rasmus.

      However, if he does like the cards wanted him to do, he will be a success. If not, he will be a washout. Dead pull hitters rarely succeed.

      However, he will probably never be an elite CF, though he does have the physical attributes to be one.

      • azruavatar says:

        “However, if he does like the cards wanted him to do, he will be a success. If not, he will be a washout”

        This is both an over simplification and an inaccurate assessment of what Rasmus was being asked to do. It’s clear that you are on the far end of the TLR-Rasmus scale where everything is Rasmus’ fault.

        • zuke354 says:

          I agree that it is an oversimplification.

          But its the .173 in Toronto shows me that it is probably more Rasmus than LaRussa.

          • Forsch31 says:

            In only 140 plate appearances in a grand total of 35 games? Okay….

            It should be noted that after a slow start, he started hitting in August (12 hits in 14 games with 6 doubles and three homeruns) when he injured his wrist (twice in one game), missed time, and tried to come back in mid-September and pretty much hit nothing. He had a slow adjustment to his new team and league, bookended with a bad ending influenced by a wrist injury he first tried to play through then lingered when he came back. Simply looking at his batting average over a short time tells you little about the player in general.

            Rasmus’s biggest issue in Toronto had to do with his plate discipline, which seemed to disappear with his injury: http://www.baseballanalytics.org/baseball-analytics-blog/2012/2/10/rasmus-wrist-plate-approach-hurt-in-toronto.html (note that from Aug. 23, when he hurt his wrist, until the end of the season Rasmus had 18 of his 39 total strikeouts in just 48 plate appearances and 13 games).

            • zuke354 says:

              Okay…Which is why I said the book is still not written.

              But the excuses are getting old.

              First its Tony. Then its the fans. Then its the media. Then its his teamates. Now its “small sample size.”

              Seriously, when are people going to look at the issue and say…Maybe it’s rasmus. Looks like its the most obvious reason right now, but yet people don’t want to admit it.

              • tom s. says:

                well, up until 2011, there was nothing to excuse. he was a very good centerfielder through 2009-10. so, i don’t understand how the excuses are getting old. he’s had a bad season. if he rebounds, good for him. if he doesn’t, it will tend to confirm what his critics say.

                • zuke354 says:

                  Actually he wasn’t. He was not that great and was surly not a very good one.

                  There is no such thing as a Good Defensive metrick. And the best one available states that it needs at least 3 years of data for accuracy purposes. Its no suprise that as those 3 years, his D-stats have gone down.

                  The thing about Colby is that he is still only 24. And actually, failure is often a good catalyst for development. But after reading Gordon’s column, it doesn’t look like Colby is accepting failure. And that is dissapointing.

                  • Forsch31 says:

                    Actually he was. Your blanket statement of “there’s no such thing as a defensive metric” is borderline willful ignorance. Defensive metrics are flawed, which is why it’s a good idea to use several and compare their methodolgies. But dismissing them outright (or cherry picking them whenever one agrees with your own views) doesn’t support your contention that Rasmus is a horrible outfielder. I have yet to hear any professional scout characterize his ability or history in the field as weak.

                    Last season was bad for him, both at the plate and in the field, and the defensive metrics support that view. But his defensive play in the minors and in his first two seasons in the majors was above-average or better, by eye and by metrics. What you are doing is focusing on the bad (in a previous discussion, you actually harped on one bad play as evidence of his inability to play center, despite the fact every single player in baseball history has made the same error in their careers) and dismissing the rest. Yes, Rasmus has issues that can derail him completely or partially as a player (and my feeling is that he’ll probably end up with a productive but disappointing career given his talent, like J.D. Drew), but your own absolutist statements about Rasmus aren’t based in reality.

                    And yes, small sample size. It’s not an excuse–it’s pointing out that your own statement has a truck-sized hole in it, and following that is the explanation of why (small sample stats fluxuate far more to the extreme because they’re more greatly influenced by slumps, which is why you have to break down what happened during that time to figure out the real issues rather than blithely quoting a counting stat and dismissing the player). Prospect fans sometimes like to use small sample sized performances as a reason to pump up a prospect or young player, so when somebody does the same exact thing to cut down a young player, I’m going to point it out as well.

                    • zuke354 says:

                      Its not borderline willfull ignornace. I am simply stating the facts.

                      I am not saying Rasmus is a terrible outfielder. I am saying he is a bad Centerfielder. You talk about me dismisshing defensive stats, but it seems to be the other way around.When the best defensive metric says he is a below average CF, that is not very good. i also notice his stat slip as the sampe size growns. This further supports my claim that he is not a good outfielder.

                      You say you have not seen professional call his game weak? I have to strongly disagree. In fact, I find it the other way around. I have not seen anybody call his game strong. It seems you want to want to discuss this at a different angle. The issue I am talking about is his actual play, not his potential. Scouts often talk about potential and not necessarily the current level of play. I agree that he has great ability, but it just hasn translated on the field yet. If you want to discuss CAN he be a good CF, then I would agree with you.

                      You say his play was better in the minors, even by the eye test? I don’t know, I hadn’t seem him. But how many times have others? At how many levels? And to be honest, he would be judge differenlty in the minors as well. At the level, I would be more condcerned about arm strength vs. Which base he trew to. I would pay closer attention to physical attributes rather than how he performs. Becasue you don’t judge him by his play, but rather by his potential. Its a different standard at the ML level. Seriously, the guy has been in the majors 3 years he still is catching balls flat footed with runners on base. That is terrible.

                      Of couse I am focusing on the bad. Becasue that is where we are at. I have always beed dissapointed in his defense from day 1. Maybe it was becasue I was told he was a great defensive player and it hasn’t been the case. I will focus on the positives when they start to translate.

                      I completley agree that defensive metrics are flawed, especially compared to their offensive counter parts. But acknowledging this fact does not dismiss them. Rather, it shows and understanding about them.

                      If you find my view to be “absolutist” then please explain how so. But the truth is UZR is probably the best metric, but it takes 3 years of data for accuracy purposes. And they And Even UZR has positioning flaws.

                      And I am not saying that Rasmus is a horrible outfielder, I am saying he is a horrible centerfielder. Part of position judgements is how you compare to your peers. He doesn’t compare well.

                      Why does my statement have a truck sized hole in it. It is once again a fact that all we are hearing is excuses. Read the article by Gordon. Its my fault, its your fault (the fans), Bernie’s fault, rick Hummel’s fault (the media), Pujols’s Fault, Berkman’s fault (the veterans) everyone elses fault that he had a dissapointing season. Not once did he mention how he was vulnerable to offspead pitches.

                      Rasums has the tools to be a great player. But at some point you have to say he hasn’t got there yet. But what i find to me particularly dissapointing is his attitude. He doesn’t want to seem to take responsibility, i.e figure out why he isn’t successfull and fix it.

                  • tom s. says:

                    to be clear, i meant he was a good centerfielder considering both offense and defense.

                    in 1580 PAs, he’s been worth 7.9 wins above replacement (which is well above average). he has a career .251/.322/.432 line, which is decent among centerfielders.

                    like i said, he had a bad 2011. over 2009-2010, he ranks 7th by WAR among centerfielders and 10th by wOBA. until 2011, nobody needed to make any “excuses” for one of the top centerfielders in the game.

                    • zuke354 says:

                      You are missing the point.

                      Ranking centerfieldrs only works when they are good centerfielders and deserve to be there.

                      He is a bad centerfielder. You live with a bad centerfielder if they contribute at an above average rate. See Lance Berkman. Since, Rasmus does neither, he proably won’t stay in center. Which moves him to a corner outfielder. At that point, the numbers don’t look so good.

                      Even what you posted ranks him at 7th. And that isn’t really good.

                      What if the cards deside to play Allen Craig in center? i mean if we trow defense out the window and accept a bad centerfieler as the stats quo, then measue him against other options. Rasmus is not better that Hunter Pence, who would probably play a much better centerfielder.

                      Hunter Pence would be a better CF option

        • Gruntosaurus says:

          AZ, the evidence has been building for months that much of what happened WAS Raz’s fault. It isn’t just the atrocious second half (final third?) he had in Toronto; it’s the way he’s acquitted himself during the off season. That’s the part that has moved me from being an agnostic on that trade to believing that the Cardinals knew what they were doing. He just doesn’t Get It.

          • hugecardsfan says:

            Ditto.

          • azruavatar says:

            I’m not here as a Rasmus evangelist. I’ve given that role up (which I never really took on but I know some people saw me that way). I have no real interest in converting anyone at this point.

            I, personally, think that TLR and the coaching staff did Rasmus a huge disservice. I think that he felt marginalized and ostracized and the coaches exacerbated rather than corrected that issue. I think that the coaching he was receiving from StL was not particularly helpful and that it was focused on turning him into something he wasn’t rather than trying to build up what he was.

            All of this is my opinion, which is firmly grounded in my understanding of the situation. I find most discussions of Rasmus to be utterly tiresome at this point but implications that it is all or mostly Rasmus’ fault are, to me, laughably uninformed.

            That is my opinion; I understand that not everyone shares it.

            • zuke354 says:

              Again, I simly have to disagree. When you look at the number of players who actually succeed under Tony and in St. Louis, I am not so quick to blaim the coaches.

              If anything, Rasmus needed a sports psycologist. This is probably the area the cards messed up with. And This is probably something his agent also needs to help him with. He seems to be a guy who seems puts alot of pressure on himself. Heck, he nearly gave himself ulcers. I am sure the position he was put into didn’t help. Reading his latest inverview, you can see pressure is an ongoing problem.

              Sports Pshycology is not a new phenomenon, but is slow to catch on.

            • Hugecardsfan says:

              Affixing blame doesn’t fit anywhere in this picture, in my opinion. Could things have been done differently? Sure. It begins with Mo not insisting that Colby was ready to play in the major leagues when he clearly was not.

              Of course, we can say Tony didn’t like the kid. But, maybe he just didn’t like the kid’s chances. He was clearly too immature to play consistently at that level. He was even too immature to handle being sent back down after the first tryout. He sulked and stunk the place up in the minors.

              Teammates could have done a better job accepting the kid. But, you can’t force them to like a guy who is replacing a popular Rick Ankiel…especially if his childish behavior passed him off as entitled.

              Could the coaches have done a better job working with Rasmus? Maybe. But, who knows for sure how hard they tried and how much they may have been rebuffed by Colby. Let’s face it, the kid is dumber than a box or rocks. Maybe they just couldn’t communicate effectively with him, and it was Colby who didn’t try hard enough to make it work. The coaches, after all, wanted Colby to be as good as he could be. Colby, on the other hand, apparently only wanted to be in the major leagues.

              Look, Colby is who he is. It isn’t his fault he’s not very smart and terribly inarticulate. It isn’t necessarily his fault he’s immature. But, his make up may have played a predominant part for why he wasn’t ready to assume a role in the Show.

              Hopefully, like most young men, the brain is in the process of maturing at 25 and Toronto and Colby will benefit from this. I just find it non productive to blame coaches because they couldn’t get to a kid who had too many external influences and too few brain receptors to deal with what would be a challenge to any human being.

    • Hugecardsfan says:

      Re: “It does seem hard to believe that smart businessmen would spend money on players that only have a 5.89% chance to succeed?”

      It’s a good question but when you succeed with a Lance Berkman, Chase Utley, Roy Halladay…etc… the memory fades on the failures. Moreover, the list skirts the strategic gains of turning a Brett Wallace into a Matt Holliday.

    • Gruntosaurus says:

      ALL players have a low probability of success when they’re of draftable age, except for the half dozen or so big-time talents each year. Baseball is a hard game.

      Would you rather see teams make completely perfunctory drafts, not caring whether they go for talent in the first round or not? San Francisco actually tried that for several years, and it was one of the reasons why it was a long time between post season appearances for them, even in the mediocre NL West. Once they figured out that they should try to do the best they could with the draft slots they had, they netted some guy called Lincecum, among others.

      Note too that the probability of a _player_ drafted in slots 15 to 25 having a “good career” is quite a bit higher than the probability of the drafting team being the one where that career happens. I haven’t run the numbers, but I’d estimate that more like closer to 15% of all guys in those slots do go on to have “good careers.” It’s just that most of those careers occur after trades. Seen through that lens, the Cardinals have actually done fairly well with their first-round drafts — quite a few guys (Kennedy, Drew, Barton, probably Perez eventually) have been “good” major leaguers, just for other teams. The drafting philosophy the team uses has been sound enough. The fraction of those “good” major leaguers who stay in the Cardinals system to have their good careers may be a bit lower than average (I’d consider Drew to count as “half” a Cardinal in context, so it’s 1.5 retained, 3.5 traded), but not by any large factor.

      In general I just don’t see a problem here. The draft is simply not as reliable a way of developing major-league stars as we’d like to think it is.

  7. zuke354 says:

    Also wanted to point out that there was also an article in ESPN the magazine about embracing pitch efficiency.

  8. IllinoisCardinalFan says:

    At 5.89%, I was just taking the number that was put out there. You would really have to include players that were traded and made it with another big league team, since they did have value and I don’t know what that number would be? but when you look at the money teams are paying some of these later choices 1 mil-2mil the odds of success just seem terrible. I guess that is why baseball did it’s best to curtail the money that could be spent in this area in the latest collective bargaining agreement

  9. Bob says:

    Ah, but if the team hits on the “1-2 mil” pick—say, a guy who’s worth 2 WAR for his first two years, then 3 WAR for his next 4—the return is probably a total surplus value in the $40-50M range, right?

    So it’s still not a bad bet at all.;)

    As a f’rinstance, Rasmus (disappointing as he was to most Redbird fans) gave the team over $30M of production, compared to a total expenditure of barely more than two million bucks. And that’s not accounting for what he returned in trade, either.

  10. first-time reader says:

    Just stumbled across this post and wanted to congratulate the author for such a well-researched and intelligent analysis.

  11.  
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