After hitting .302/.419/.465 in over 500 plate appearances at AAA, Matt Carpenter finds himself in the unenviable position of being behind David Freese on the depth chart. Both players have similar offensive projections for 2012 but David Freese has (1) won a World Series MVP trophy and (2) proven that he can put up his numbers in the majors.
Leave a comment with your choice and the reasoning behind it.
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We should trade him to Oakland, who just lost Scott Sizemore for the season and has absolutely zero depth at 3rd. Carpenter for Sonny Gray or less desirably, Michael Taylor.
think you might be overvaluing Carp a little
Maybe, but he’s not overestimating the extent to which Oakland is currently screwed. However, a trade for Gray is impossible. Draftees are immune to trades for a year, unless the latest CBA has changed that.
I think Taylor is a slightly worse prospect than Carpenter and Gray is a slightly better one. He would have to be a PTBNL though, as was mentioned.
Carpenter’s ceiling is lower than Grays’, Taylor as well. Chances Taylor gets to his ceiling is not likely, and its to early to judge Gray. That said, Carpenter is Billy Beane’s type of player. Carpenter plus Boone Whiting and/or Seth Blair could pull Gray.
Yeah I agree
Seth Blair.
I repeat: there is no trade that would secure Gray at this point, even in theory, because by rule, he’s not tradeable until he has a year under his belt. He doesn’t, obviously.
This said, I wouldn’t be anxious to trade for another right-handed starting pitcher anyway. Those are strengths of the system as it currently stands, and he does not appear so likely to be much better than Rosenthal, Jenkins, Lynn, etc., as to force himself through the logjam and into the majors. If the team trades Carpenter, it should be for something they don’t have in abundance in the minors. Unusually, I’d say that’s a power-hitting corner guy. There’s not much on the farm meeting that description and having decent chances to mash in the majors other than Adams, and I am still concerned about his BB/PA rate.
I agree OAK is pretty screwed, but for a team that just dumped Cahill and Gio to give up prospects with a high ceiling (whatever the risk) for Carpenter is extremely unlikely. OAK might be a good trade partner, but I wouldn’t expect that much for a high OBP 3B with little power … although I still haven’t seen Moneyball so maybe I’m wrong.
You can’t really categorize Oakland that easily. Didn’t they just pay like $36M for a centerfielder who hasn’t played a minute in the ML’s?
a CF with projection. Can you project Carpenter to much more than he is right now?
Well, that’s true. Maybe we’ll find out their CF’er can never hit a curve ball. I never got the value of projection, especially when it comes to 26 year olds who haven’t set foot in the majors yet.
and there you have OAK in a nutshell. always looking for projection until they get a new stadium.
But Oakland aren’t in serious contention this year. They could just sign Brandon Inge or something.
I don’t think they would give up either of them for him but I think that’s a perfect match, his high OBP is something they crave right? (I saw Moneyball)
I also had Oakland in mind as a trade candidate….. but wouldn’t mind Taylor as a target.
Oakland is who I was thinking as well.
Carpenter’s future depends on a combination of Freese and Cox. If Cox can handle 3rd defensively than Carpenter will be looking elsewhere for a job. If Freese’s ankles hold up, he most likely stays at 3rd (if not moves to first). That, said, we probably hold on to him for one more year until we know the answers to those questions. I wont be surprised if Carpenter is on the major league bench to open the season.
One guy in their system that I think we could really use is Michael Choice. I’ve mentioned a bunch of times on here that we need some power in our system and he could help that a lot, and he’ll probably be ready when Beltran’s contract runs out. Carpenter alone I’m guessing would not get him, but maybe a package of M Carp and one of our bullpen guys or starting prospects could. I would be more than all for this…..
Choice is great, but also a top 100, maybe top 50 prospect. I think he would cost waaaaaayyyy more than Gray, though I’m not at all opposed to packaging MCarp with a starter for him.
Unless we package Carpenter with a prospect that’s at least his equal, I doubt we could get Choice or Grant Green. They do have a logjam in the outfield so Taylor is someone they might consider. They also have Jermaine Mitchell and Colin Cowgill at the upper levels and Aaron Shipman, an intriguing guy who reminds me of CJ McElroy with more polish at the rookie level.
As much as I wouldn’t mind bolstering the system’s outfield depth, the dream scenario for me would be to package Carp and Lance Lynn or Eduardo Sanchez to acquire Brad Peacock, who unlike Gray, is tradeable. Because AJ Cole is further away, he might be acquired for a little less, but I do think it would take more than just Carp.
This is a great question because you have such a small window to leverage the value of a player like Carpenter and you have a lot of moving parts like Cox and Freese. So Mo has to decide does he have the most value as a utility man, an insurance policy for Freese or does he have the most value in a trade? In order to continue being a top organization the Cardinals need to be great at answering questions like this. With Cox so close behind him I would think you would have to explore a trade to a team like Oakland, and while you were at it they might want to check to see if Oakland is interested in Cox.
I would like to see if Carpenter could become the type of utility (4 corners and 2b…SS doubtful) player suggested above. However if you are going to trade him, all farm systems have speculative players, usually pitchers that you can acquire in such a trade e.g. Brendon Ryan for Cleto.
MCarp definitely has a spot on the roster until Craig is healthy. I’d like to see him on the team as a bench player. Surely we will lose one or more of Berk, Beltran, Craig and Freese to the DL at some point this season. If any two are out at the same time MCarp becomes a starter.
If you can fill a real need trading Carpenter makes sense. Otherwise, keeping him as backup to Freese before Cox is ready and using him in utility roles makes sense.
I happen to be one of the few around here who thinks Carpenter might even be better than Freese and I absolutely love David Freese.
I’m in no hurry to send Carp packing.
Oakland would be logical. . .I might be in the minority here, but I’d rather package Z. Cox and hang onto Carpenter to spell Freese and as a lefty bat off the bench. Kind of a Descalso with a bit more juice. I’m under no illusion that Cox could net us Choice, but Beane is known to do stupid stuff here and there. Then again, Beane might be hesitant to deal with the same organization that netted him The Walrus.
who actually turned into Michael Taylor
I wonder if we’re undervaluing Cox.
We’re talking about a guy who played just 2 years in college, part of that time as a pitcher, and who barely played (a few weeks in the AFL) his first pro season.
Then, in 2011, he led the Cards’ minor leaguers with 158 hits, 2/3 of them in AA. (Pujols was the only guy in the entire org who had more hits in 2011.) Forty went for extra bases.
Over at BA, Jim Callis has said several times that he thinks Cox will show more power as he gets more comfortable as a pro.
We focus on what he can’t do, but we’re talking about a 22-year-old with 3 total years of Division I and pro baseball experience. Carpenter is 3.5 years older with 4 years at Division I and 2.5 years as a pro. I love the guy as a utility player, but Cox looks like a guy who’s going to be an everyday player hitting in the top half of the lineup.
Lou — If Carpenter were to be the starting third baseman in St. Louis, what do you think his OBP would be after 600 PAs?
(I’ll follow this up after you respond. Don’t want to prejudice the answer.)
didn’t ask me but I’ll weigh in at .390. More specifically, I’d guess .275/.390/.435
Didn’t ask me either, but my line is much more pessimistic: .250/.320/.380. Pitchers would start to challenge him with strikes once they realize he’s not likely to take them out of the park. His excellent plate discipline won’t matter as much once he stops seeing as many pitches out of the strike zone.
However, I think he’ll eventually be able to improve on that as he makes his own adjustments. Just not in the first 600 PAs.
I think you’re way too pessimistic Grunt… I like .278/.365/.410. He does take enough out of the park that you can’t groove him. He also bangs them off the wall. I think Carp is ready to play and that may be what az is trying to suggest…and that his better defense than Cox begs the question “what value added can we get from Cox?”.
I tend to agree with Lou that we may be undervaluing Cox. In a year he’s going to be ready to play in the majors. Rather than looking to make him part of a package for a need, maybe his talents warrant the trade all by themselves. I’m not sure some of our fans have adjusted to the fact that we have a lot of talent in the farm. No giveaways.
Cox is a worker. He will continue to hone his defense and his hitting should mature to ML ready…with budding power. If so, we’d have hated to trade him before his value had matured.
I think I agree with ZiPS. He’d have an OBP ~ .340 if he played now.
I’d guess .350-.375, depending on batted-ball luck and whether MLB umpires give him the same strike zone he gets in AAA.
I think we sometimes forget how hard the transition from AAA to the majors is.
Not a single rookie had an OBP above .350.
In 2010, only 4 rookies. Posey, Hayward, Ike Davis and John Jaso.
Now I think it is possible he could post an obp above .350, but I think its tall order for him to do it as a rookie. .320-.340 is more likely.
.280/.340 and 6 home runs.
If Carpenter has any value at all to another team, now is the time to trade him. If he is only kept around as a bench player or sent back to AAA, his trade value will begin dropping exponentially.
And please remember that Craig was a minor league third baseman, who could fill in for Freese, if an injury befalls him. While the old manager may have been reluctant to use Craig at third, the new manager might be willing to do so without reservation.
Descalso also does a nice job at third.
I disagree. Matheny has been emphasizing defense in spring training, (at least to the media). TLR has been willing to sacrifice defense for offense in the past. It may be too early to say this, but I don’t see anyway Craig plays 3B this year, and beyond.
What about a package of Carpenter and Oscar for the aforementioned Choice and one of Cole, Peacock, Milone, Gray, or Parker?
This way they get their 3B and a consensus top 100 prospect. We get a power OF bat and another top-tier pitching prospect.
Taveras should be untouchable. He could be Tony Oliva redux…or maybe even more. I mean, the guy did put up the highest Midwest League batting average since the Eisenhower administration—and did so while also posting an isolated slugging 65% above his league peers. Oh, and of the 31 MWL hitters with an ISO at least 50% above average, Oscar had the 2nd-lowest strikeout rate.
While playing half the season at age 18. That’s phenom stuff.
There’s no one from last year’s Palm Beach squad pushing Cox upwards to AAA, so I’d leave Zack at Springfield for now, and Carp in Memphis. If either of them are *dominant* at their respective levels, it only enhances their trade value come July.
I’d much rather trade Cox. At this point in their respective careers, they both profile as roughly league-average 3Bs IMO. Carpenter is probably there right now (i.e. he’s probably an average major league hot corner guy if he was made the starter today), Cox is probably at least a year off. I think Cox has a bit more upside (if we see a bit more power/patience or he can work on his defense, I could see him being a 3 WAR guy i guess) but in terms of value to us they’re about the same. However, Cox has sufficient hype to bring something back in trade. Carp does not. Ergo, trade Cox.
If Cox is a year off, that is one reason why I would trade Carp.
The cards have a starting 3rd baseman right now. Might as well keep the guy who is a bit further away.
If you’re willing to settle for DD as your 3rd baseman in the event Freese is out for a prolongued period. I’m not. I would keep Carpenter in reserve all year.