Lance Lynn Gets 6th Starter Label
Posted on March 12th, 2012 by azruavatar in Lance Lynn, tags: Chris Carpenter, Lance Lynn, shelby miller, St. Louis CardinalsThe Cardinals got some good news over the weekend when their projected Opening Day starter, Chris Carpenter, received a moderately positive medical review. Neck pain that was radiating down both arms was diagnosed as a bulging disc rather than a potentially more serious nerve condition or other injury.
The Cardinals clearly had a Plan B in mind and are internally equipped to replace Chris Carpenter with another pitcher, if not one who is as effective on the mound. Today, Mike Matheny revealed that Lance Lynn gets that label as the back up plan to Chris Carpenter and will be stretched out over the next several Grapefruit League starts. Matheny offered some rationale for the semi-secret backup plans via Derrick Goold and Rick Hummel in the Post-Dispatch:
I’ve been so reluctant and hesitant with all of you (the media) as I have been excited about how Lance has fallen into that role. He could be that late-inning guy. He could be that seventh-, eight-inning (guy). He certainly has the ability and the long-term projection to potentially be that starting guy as well. We just didn’t want to push his mindset outside of being that bullpen guy until we knew we were going to have to start ramping up his innings.
Lynn provided the common and correct media responses about doing what is best for the team wherever the team may need him even as he indicated a preference for starting. Curiosity about Lynn since his uptick in velocity was further stoked by an impressive collection of relief outings for the major league club in 2011. With Carpenter ailing, the Lance Lynn, reliever, label gets scratched out. Here’s three reasons why that’s a good thing.
- Starters are more valuable than relievers – Lynn ran the risk of being pigeonholed by his impressive 2011 performance. Matheny even notes in the Post-Dispatch article that he could have been a late inning reliever. It’s extremely difficult for relievers to be as valuable as starters though. Assuming that Lance Lynn was a true talent 2.88 FIP reliever (his 2011 numbers), he would be worth about 1.3 WAR over the course of the entire season (75 innings). He also would have been a top 10 reliever, which seems unlikely. To accumulate that as a starter, Lynn only needs to post a FIP around 4.40 (lgFIP = 5.00; 200 IP) in order to accumulate that value. ZiPS projects Lynn for a FIP around 3.80 (depending on your league modifier).
- It relieves the bullpen crunch - The Cardinals have lots of options for right handed relievers who have already spent time in the major league pen: Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, Fernando Salas, Eduardo Sanchez and Kyle McClellan. They’ve got a handful of players who are in Memphis, nearly ready for the majors and limited to the bullpen as well: Adam Reifer, Adam Ottavino or Chuckie Fick. What the Cardinals don’t have much of is imminent starting pitchers. Outside of Shelby Miller, who projects very similarly to Lance Lynn for 2012, guys like Maikel Cleto or Brandon Dickson are the closest to the majors. The former could use some more seasoning after starting 2011 in Palm Beach and the latter is questionable as a projected major league starter. Lance Lynn is the default candidate as well as the best candidate.
- It helps the 2013 rotation – Shelby Miller was always going to get a shot in the rotation. There has never been any doubt about that. The Cardinals currently will have two open rotation slots in 2012 after Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse’s contracts are completed. The risk of pigeonholing Lance Lynn as a reliever has as much to do with 2012 as it does with 2013. If Lynn can establish himself as a reliable major league starter this year (even in limited time) it should provide added comfort to a 2013 rotation that could include both Lynn and Miller. The Cardinals are not well known for introducing multiple untested starters into the rotation in a single year so increased certainty of Lynn only helps his long term prospects and the teams chances of keeping payroll under control.
Should Chris Carpenter miss extended time, Lynn appears, both statistically and from a scouting perspective, to be capable as a major league starter. It is beneficial for both Lynn and the Cardinals to see early success in that role for 2012 as well as the future.
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It is nice to have a manager who quickly makes the rational decision with an absence of drama. Then again, over a long season, the prior regime drama did make for nice theater keeping us fans entertained. If Lynn stays in the bullpen and no team takes McClellan off our hands, then it appeared they were going to send Sanchez to start the year in Memphis. I am confident we have the arms to replace Lynn’s role in the bullpen.
They better not send Sanchez down – the guy is nasty and all reports are that he looks as good as ever this spring. He should get priority over Boggs or McClellan
Miller had a rough outing today, but Rosie did well.
How about Sanchez? Faced 6 batters and struck out 5.
But should Sanchez being throwing 1.2 innings this early in the Spring coming back from injury? Don’t know how many pitches but probably close to 30 with 5 K’s. Doesn’t make sense to me. He’s basically throwing at his full workload max in the second week of Spring training. Is there a need for that.
I have argued in the past that Sanchez should be made a starter. I think he would be effective but I’m no longer sure his arm would hold up – but if we are going to pitch him this much in early Spring relief they obviously have few concerns about his arm.
I never really considered a reliever “building up” pitches like a starter. I agree with those saying Sanchez over Boggs. Bullpen is shaping up nicely.
Sanchez does not have a starters assortment. As it is, he is vulberable to lefties.
I have read that about Sanchez’ weakness with lefties in the past but I have never seen a single stat to back up. Do you have any? Certainly in his 30 major league innings that hasn’t been the case.
Its from what I saw last season. Its the problem any 2 pitch right handers face.
There aren’t any stats to back it up becasue he doesn’t have a big enough track record in the majors.
The key word is vulnerable, which means it will be exploited more as teams get a book on him. Good hitting lefties will learn to lay off that slider and sit on fastball. What happens is you will see good lefties foul off pitch after pitch. That weakness gets exploited the more pitches he faces each batter in an atbat and in a game. It can work win short releif apperances, especially if he controls the zone by getting ahead in the count, but it wouldn’t work as a starter.
What sancez needs, and what he can do, is develop a decent (doesn’t need to be great), change up to keep them off balance when looking fastball.
Also, he came back from injury. I doubt he modified his offseason program at all.
He was originally a starter when we signed him years ago but was quickly made into a reliever. I haven’t heard anyone bring up him being a starter. Why do you think he should be a starter?
He probably wanted him to start because of his electric arm. A lot of folks feel it’s best for pitchers with big time arms to try starting until they prove they can’t do it.
Obviously the Cardinals and their scouts didn’t feel like Sanchez had to the arm strength, durability, and/or repertoire to succeed at the major league level as a starter, but they knew with him arm that he could be a lights-out late-inning reliever.
On a somewhat related note, some scouts are skeptical that Carlos Martinez can continue progress as a starter, as they feel his future lies in the bullpen.
Sanchez is small and has a high effort delievery and how a shoulder issue last year. Absolutely the right idea to switch him to relief. I think the organization will do all it can to keep Martinez as a starter. We paid too much and his potential is so great that they have to give him every shot to start. On that note I saw a video from Martinez earlier in Spring and it looks like he’s worked on his delievery and its a little smoother and less violent.
Oh yea, absolutely give Martinez every chance to start. Several people would get fired if the Cardinals tried to move him to the pen immediately.
Back to Sanchez for a second. Martinez is listed at 6’0 165. Some say that it’s a generous 6 foot. Sanchez is listed as 5’11 170. They are pretty similar in size. Let me clarify that it was never of my opinion to have Sanchez start, I was just speculating that the original poster may have felt that way because of his big arm. However, if the Cardinals would have attempted to clean up his mechanics a bit more in the minors, he may have been able to start a few games as he climbed the ladder.
Obviously the right decision was made. And obviously Martinez should start until he literally proves he can’t. But the size argument doesn’t apply here. Also, a clean up on Sanchez’s mechanics could have allowed him to start at least until AA or AAA.
Wasn’t just using the size argument, I was using the size, plus violent drop and drive delievery plus a lack of control sometimes plus the he’s already had some shoulder issues before this year combo.
If one reads what I actually wrote it clearly says “in the past”. given his shoulder injuries I cant see it being pursued at this point. I have it on good authority that he had the pitching assortment to be an effective starter. He was derailed initially in his attempt by forearm issues.
Don’t get too perturbed about Miller. It’s still spring training and he’s still working on stuff.
This said, I don’t think he’s ready for the Show yet — close but not quite. Continue to help him grow according to plan and let Lynn be the Carp-pro-tem guy, at least until June.
So Lynn gets teh 6th starter label for now…But what about after carp returns and its during the season?
Probably someone on the 40-man and pitching decently in AAA. Someone like Dickson or Cleto.
However, if someone is going to miss significant time and they get injured in, say early June, I think the Cardinals would explore a trade or signing (Oswalt possibly). If they were to sign someone off the free agent market like Oswalt, however, they’d have to give him some time to build up his arm strength, therefore would have to give Cleto or Dickson at least 2-4 starts anyway.
I was at the game today.
Lynn looked very good. Topped out at 97, mixed things up nicely.
Segrist also was impressive, topping out at 92. Also mixed his pitches nicely.
Ottavino was terrible. Control was terrible and then came in with fat pitches when he got behind. Very dissapointing to watch, although he pitched apparently better in his first game on Monday.
You sure about the 97? I’m asking because in Port St. Lucie a few days ago Cleto was only hitting 95. I say only because he normally throws 97-98. The gun today could be fast because usually the first few weeks of Spring pitchers aren’t comopletely cranked up yet.
I don’t understand the value of having your young pitchers throwing so hard in March. It will be interesting to see how those who are throwing hard this soon will be in summer. That’s why they have NR players and those not on the 25 pitch in ML spring training so the ML guys can ease into April. These young guys are out to impress by throwing as hard as they can, in the back fields too, because velo is king.
The gun at the stadium isn’t accurate, as is most of the guns at the milb facilities.
I am not sure that Ottavino is convinced that he belongs coming out of the pen and I never did see him as a reliever. Not every pitcher can transfer so early in their career to starter to pen, especially if they haven’t ever done it. Lynn is unique because he can, Lynn also is they type who gets the sign from his catcher and just throws the ball and doesn’t give much thought. That’s a relievers mentality, and Lynn can do both, obviously.
I think the whole idea might have been to allow Ottavino time to get healthy, place him back on the 40 (to show off his stuff) and use as a trade. Return him to AAA and let him work up as a starter. I have always seen him as a pitcher that needs more then one inning to level out, in other words he gets better as he racks up innings in a game.