Since it is the beginning of the season, what better time for some quick predictions on which players are going to have big seasons that push them into the spotlight and who are going to slip prospect wise. Fill your predictions in the comments.
Risers:
Greg Garcia – Garcia played both middle infield positions last year and is probably pushed more to short by Kolten Wong’s solid position at second in Springfield. In over 250 PAs in Palm Beach, (a pitcher’s league) he hit for a wOBA+ of 122. He’s already 22, and should improve his numbers in the Texas league especially with his ability to get on base and enough speed to add triples to his attack.
Xavier Scruggs – Scruggs gets overwhelmed by another slugging first baseman who was promoted over his head, but Scruggs has done nothing but put up good numbers. It is hard to get recognized as a prospect at first base, but Scruggs is a solid one. He had an OPS of .833 and a wOBA+ of 117 in a full year at Palm Beach. He still strikes out too much and needs to walk more, but his power has always been there. He’ll get noticed for his numbers in Springfield as well.
Hector Hernandez – I’ve always believed in Hernandez ever since I saw this video when he was drafted. (I mean, look at that hook!) He’s maintained a solid 8.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 through his minor league career so far and has been moved along without rush as a high school draftee out of Puerto Rico. He should continue his solid results as he moves up the ladder and will get more attention as he does so.
Fallers:
Seth Blair – I hate to pick on the guy, but he was a high draft pick who has presented some really bad numbers in his first season of action. Blair will be moving up to Palm Beach after a 6.8 BB/9 season (with 14 HBP, 11 Wild Pitches and 2 balks) in Quad Cities. He’s obviously having serious problems focusing on his mechanics and approach that made him so successful in college. I am rooting like hell for the kid, I just do not think that the odds are stacked in his favor.
Ryan Jackson – Ryan Jackson’s hype machine is off the charts right now for good reason due to his defense. However, Jackson’s offense was underwhelming last year with a wOBA+ of 98 (below average). If we could push Jackson’s stats right up to the majors he would be fine, but unfortunately, that is not how it works. I am skeptical that his bat will hold up in AAA. I hope it will, but a down offensive season will hurt Jackson’s prospect status.
Maikel Cleto – After being totally jerked around by the Cardinals organization last season, using him at four levels including cannon fodder for the major league team, Cleto has been moved (permanently?) from starter to reliever in Memphis. He can still throw 100 MPH and strike out players with a 9 K/9 rate last year across his minor league levels, but his walk rate was up to 4.3 BB/9. With his STL appearances and 100 MPH fastball, he has been garnering attention, but until he completes a solid season in one spot and lowers his walk rate, his prospect moon is bound to wane.
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Good choices on the Risers. I don’t really agree on the Fallers. Blair deserves to be on the list but based on seeing him this Spring I think he has figured something out and is due to have a good year. He’s working with Dennis Martinez, his mechancics are in a better spot and I bet his mind is in a better place not having to be so close to friends and family and had the pressure of being a local star and professional athlete. Blair will have a good year.
Jackson I see that one too probably because a lot of people overrated him last year. I think he will be a fine player but his offensive stats were inflated in Springfield. I think he will be a MLB shortstop buthis bat will just be average which is ok with his defensive skills.
Cleto wasn’t really treated fairly last year and that is the reason for is move to the BP this year. The organization has said this move isn’t any sign that we don’t think he can be a starter but instead that we put him in a bad situation last year when we had to move him to the Bigs to relieve. He wasn’t prepared for what it takes to be a reliever and they wanted him to have that opportunity to learn how to do that seeing it’s more likely for him to reach STL this year as a reliever than a starter. No clue what going to happen next year if he’s converted back to starter or stays in relief. He’s got a real future as a closer though.
Ryan Jackson may be the next Daniel Descalso. Gets people excited by hitting well and flashing some power in Springfield before settling in as a utility player/fringy starter in the bigs. I still believe he will be a Major League contributor, but the excitement from his hot hitting in Springfield and Arizona is bound to calm down.
That said, he did garner high praise from one of the Cardinals Hall of Famers in Spring Training (I think it was Red or Whitey). There’s still a chance he could have a Jack Wilson/Brendan Ryan type career as a defense first starting SS. Time will tell.
I don’t think you can compare Wilson/Ryan to Jackson. Yes, Jackson’s home runs may go down at Memphis this year, but he still had 48 extra base hits last year. The most Ryan ever had in a minor league season was 15. Perhaps as a hitter you can compare Jackson’s minor league numbers to Descalso, but Descalso did not have the glove that Jackson has.
Well let me be the first(?) to suggest that my prediction for riser is Rosie. I think he hits the national scene big time this year. I think he creates as much or more sensation as Miller last year, but from nowhere this will cause the scouts to sit up and take notice. That Goldstein was so oblivious last week still astounds me.
I don’t understand Blair as faller, because I don’t think he ever particularly rose. As far as I can tell, he is seen as exactly what he is: a power arm that has to learn control before he ever sniffs a career.
Sorry to say, my candidate for that slot is Carlos Martinez. He’s still going to be good, but a high-leverage reliever who hits 100 on the gun isn’t nearly as exciting as a starter who hits 100 on the gun, and there is a growing suspicion that that’s his fate.
I’d put Rosie on the risers over Scruggs. Scruggs is going to be (indeed, already is) a better player than most people think, but the bar at first base is awfully high. The thought of Rosie throwing a Carpenter cutter makes me dizzy.
I think we are at the point where Martinez is a bit underrated. TINSTAAPP
Just an insanely live arm. This manchild has easiest power I have seen; a plus curveball; and is 19.
There’s not indication so far that Martinez is destined for the bullpen. Not sure where your getting this from. Why are you suspicious of that and where are youg etting it from?
A Carlos Martinez conversation:
“He has a 100mph fastball with control and movement!”
“But he’s little.”
“His curve is out of sight!”
“He’s little.”
“The power he generates is amazing, with a smooth and easy delivery!”
“He’s little.”
“The kid is only 19!”
“He’s little.”
Repeat ad nausium until he either turns into a closer or wins the Cy Young.
Just to be clear, I have no idea which of those it will be (if either).
Well done illustration. All we can do is hope CMart is the exception and not the rule.
In my opinion, Rosie has already risen. I really believe he will be in the St. Louis rotation my the end of next season
My thought was that if everything breaks right with no setbacks Rosie makes Memphis this season then gets an apprenticeship in the STL bullpen in 2013 ala Lance Lynn setting him up for the rotation in 2014. That would be aggressive but, by all accounts, the Cards are very high on Rosenthal.
I agree with the Rosie has already risen thought. I’m not sure he would be in the rotation by the end of 2013, but letting him start 2013 in Memphis as a starter, then a bullpen gig with STL toward the end of that year is very possible and joining the 2014 rotation right on time. And depending on how he performs in his first ten starts or so this season, I’m not even sure it would be that aggressive….he would be 23 in 2013 and obviouisly 24 in 2014.
If Ryan Jackson can hit this season he will not be a faller. But he is a very good defensive SS. He is smooth and does everything right at SS and has a good arm. I like Cleto but he has no command at all. If he can get command of his 100 MPH FB and develop a solid off speed with it I think he will be fine.
I have been looking forward to the return of the Gorgen and I see he struck out the side in the first tonight for Springfield. Liked him a lot before he got hurt, hoping he has a good year.
My prediction for the season is that Duncan throws out the first pitch for Springfield and someone hits a one hopper to the 2nd baseman.
tommy will rise from the ashes to have a phamulous year
Risers:
Ronie Gil
Scott Gorgen
Fallers;
Sam Freeman
Being in the Chicago area (although not as close to Geneva as I used to be…..:-( well, sad face in that I liked having a short drive to the Cougars/Bandits games), I always really look forward to seeing the “new” stars of the Cardinals organization. I call them “new” stars because I feel like since this is their first shot at full season baseball, it really is like it’s real for them. The short season leagues don’t offer as much solid information for me. Anyway, as far as the Bandits go, I’m excited about the starting rotation, especially Sam Gaviglio. I’m also very intrigued to see what Stock does out of the pen.
And how could I not be excited to see what Roberto de la Cruz does this year. I know many have been down on him but he is still young and that makes me optimistic. Others I want to see is Tyler Rahmatula, Garrett Wittels, and Anthony Garcia. Should be an interesting and exciting year for the Bandits.
On a side note, the Midwest League All-Star game is in Geneva this year (Kane County Cougars) so I’m extra pumped for that.
He’s way down the list, but I was as really hyped about Taveras at Johnson City in 2010. Not many agree with me yet, and he did have a short stint there, but I got a similar feeling watching Breyvic Valera there last year. He just looked like an exciting ball player.
Props on your choices Jeff. I only disagree with you on Jackson. I think he’s the real deal. In addition to your choices I’ll like to put forth a few more:
Risers: 1. Roberto De La Cruz – He’s going to have a monster year offensively and the switch to 1b should help.
2. Boone Whiting – Okay, so he’s small, he’s still a hell of a pitcher.
3. Scott Gorgen – If he’s healthy, he pushes his name up the list.
4. Stephen Hill – One full season of what he can do with a bat and the baseball world opens it’s eyes.
5. Deryk Hooker – If his heads on straight, he’s a damn good pitcher.
Special mention to Trevor “Rocketman” Rosenthal; he’s rising at the speed of one of his fastballs.
Fallers: 1. Maikel Cleto – Watching him pitch in the majors last year was painful. He had no clue were the ball was going.
2. Adam Reifer – I’m just not sold yet.
3. Joe Kelly – Yes, I know everyone says he has great stuff and his groundball ratio is off the charts, but…..
4. John Gast – I really need to see so much more from him.
5. Thomas Pham – The next Joey Bombs.
Special mention to Fisher Cutbait…..er……Shooter Hunt; we drafted him why????
The Cardinals didn’t draft Hunt. He was picked up on a waiver claim or free agency after being drafted by Minnesota, then released because of his inability to throw strikes. If that can be fixed, he still has a power arm. If. Not the worst gamble a system with demonstrated success in developing pitchers could take, and the price was right, but still a gamble.
I don’t hold Cleto’s abominable major-league debut against him. Kid was as nervous out there as a chicken on a blind date with Colonel Sanders. More seasoning is obviously required, but the problem wasn’t physical.
I don’t see how acquiring Hunt (I thought it was rule 5, but am probably wrong) could be classified a “gamble” at all. “Gamble” implies that if he fails, we loose out on something. What could the cardinals lose?
Almost nothing. Just a little money, and maybe more importantly, effort that could have been spent on someone else. I thought this was a good pickup, even if he completely bombs out. Yet, if ANYTHING is expended on him and he bombs out, it was a gamble — even if a very low-stakes one.
It’s not zero sum, had Hunt not been picked up someone else would have been and that effort would be going to the other person. It’s not like some pitchers aren’t getting instruction because others are.
Thank you Tackle Box, YOU are correct, Hunt was a rule 5 draft. I’m surprised Grunt didn’t know that. Anyway, just look at Hunt’s previous minor league numbers and then answer the question. The topic was who we thought were risers and fallers; I picked Cleto as one of mine Grunt, just like Jeff. You can summit your picks completely opposite of mine if you choose if that’s your opinion. Makes no difference to me. Some people will agree or disagree with my selections. It’s up to them. TB and I both agree on De La Cruz. Jeff and I agree on Cleto, disagree on Ryan Jackson. Grunt and I agree on “Rosie” and are totally opposite on Carlos Martinez.
Any specific reasons for the guys you think are fallers?
Saw De La Cruz today, guys an absolute butcher at 1st. I would rather him be at 3rd until he can catch a ball as a way to minimize the number of plays he’s involved with per game.
One guy I think can move fast: Danny Miranda, the lefty reliever from Miami.
(I know I’m writing this after he started the season w. 2 solid innings for QC, but I didn’t see this thread until now!)
He was very good for Batavia last year — in 30.2 IP, he gave up just 21 hits and 7 BB, w. 27 K — but was barely mentioned in all our offseason discussions.
Since we’re always short of lefties coming out of the bullpen, he seems like a guy who’s in the right organization for his skill set.
Yeah, that’s a good one. I believe he was thought to be pretty polished out of college and he is the sort of guy who could jump through the system