MLB Mock Drafts are not quite as big as NFL Mock Drafts (Which are done year round and at least a year in advance) – but there are already a ton of MLB mock drafts out there that will give us at least an idea of who is currently projected to be available at the Cardinals selections. Let’s take a look at the 4 guys mocked to the Cardinals at 19th overall.
Round 1 – Pick 19:
Marcus Stroman, RHP, Duke (MLB Draft Countdown)
Via Keith Law: “Duke right-hander Marcus Stroman would go in the top five picks this year if he were only about five or six inches taller, but at 5-foot-9 or 5-foot-8, he’s facing an uphill battle to convince scouts that he can be more than a reliever in the majors. Yet if we ignore his lack of height for the moment, he has essential ingredients for a starter — an above-average fastball, an out pitch among his secondary offerings, a weapon to use against lefties, and an extremely aggressive approach along with self-confidence that practically drenches the mound when he pitches.” He pitches at 93-95 MPH. He’s a draft eligible junior.
Gavin Cecchini, SS, Barbe HS (LA) (My MLB Draft)
Via ESPN’s High School Blog: “Cecchini is a gamer with plus makeup and good athleticism and has a chance to stick at shortstop as a result. His arm is good enough and he’s accurate, and there’s some pop in the bat thanks to sound mechanics and a solid hit tool. “He’s an Ole Miss signee.
Albert Almora, OF, Mater Academy (FL) (MLB Draft Insider) (MLB Dirt)
Via the ESPN High School Blog: “Almora may be the best prep center fielder in the class and projects to hit for average with a chance to add 10 to 15 home runs. He’s a 55 runner on the 20-80 scouting scale and has tremendous instincts in the field and on the bases. Almora performs well in showcases and big games, which could get him selected in the top 20.”
And again: “Almora brings plenty of upside to the table, including plus speed and a plus throwing arm. His strong, quick wrists and a consistent swing may be too much to pass up on draft day. He runs good routes in the outfield and may be able to handle center in the big leagues.”
Almora has a frame that is begging for bulking up, but he’s got a high leg kick and a solid swing already. Plus, check out his video, he’s already wearing the Birds on the Bat. He is a signee to “The U” University of Miami.
Addison Russell, SS, Pace HS (GA) (Through the Fence Baseball)
Via ESPN’s High School Blog: Russell looks more like a third baseman than a shortstop, and his power follows suit. But he moves his feet well and has terrific hands, so there’s a chance for him to stick at short in pro ball as long as he remains in top condition. He’s an Auburn signee.
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Here is the question…
With 5 first round picks….how do the cards attack the draft? And how will the new slotting system impact that many picks?
I think with multiple picks, you go aggresive, with fewer picks stay conservative. This also seems to be their pattern with the selection of Wong last year and more aggresive apporach in 2005.
With the 5 selections, I say go high risk/high reward for 4 of them and conservative with 1 of them.
I would suggest a strategy of picking high upside (probably difficult signees) with the first five picks, and then go with lower ceilings/higher floor/cheaper signees in rounds 2-9 (e.g. college seniors) and then take another high upside pick at round 10 or even later and give that pick(s) a high bonus to keep them from going to college if one of the first 5 picks don’t take the money.
This would be a bad idea. If a pick goes unsigned, then a team has their draft pool allotment reduced by the maximum recommended bonus that MLB assigned for that pick. It will be very bad if the Cardinals don’t sign one of their top 6 picks.
This actually creates a problem I hadn’t thought about given the new bonus pool rules. Does our bonus pool get expanded because of the additional 1st round picks? I got the impression that the bonus pool was a hard and fast number and with the WS win, I would think our pool is actually the smallest.
Can anyone explain this?
We have the 4th highest bonus pool based on number of picks and location of said picks, etc:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/02/2012-aggregate-bonus-pools/
Interesting group. The latest BA top 60 has Stroman at #9, Cecchini #11, and Almora #12. If any of them drop to us at 19, that could be a nice break. (Or not, if other teams know something we don’t.)
They have Russell at #23, so he might be there for either first-round pick. They also have Stryker Trahan at #17. A catcher with power and speed is always intriguing.
Thanks, I don’t have a BA sub. Now that I think about it, why don’t I?
Probably because it costs $95 a year!
I’m nothing close to qualified to assess this sort of thing, but Russell’s swing looks like it’s made to generate line drives. The ball just seems to rocket off the bat on every swing in that video.
We can go a lot of ways with this draft, and I like that. Up the middle is always a need and there is an above average class this year. I think a mix will be appropriate. I would love to see Trahan at 19 and Gallo or Cecchini at 23.
I hope we take stryker if he is there
If Giolito slides to us I’d like to see us take a shot. With our large bonus pool our 5% we can go over slot is going to enable us to offer him more than most teams if not taken in the top 10. Worst case we pick near #19 next year. I dont see the Cards signing all 5 picks in any case.
I agree. Arm problems are a risk, but potential top 5 reward as we have time for him to rest/rehab.
Sounds like most people believe theo epstein wouldnt be scared away from giolito, but it would be awesome if somehow he slipped to us.
With pretty well everybody that’s being mentioned for these choices, I am finding it easier to see things that argue that they should not be drafted than that they should be. Maybe I’m reading too much between the lines, but stuff like “convince scouts that he can be more than a reliever” and “may be able to handle center in the big leagues” and “arm is good enough” is the kind of faint praise that leaves me worried that none of them will be at the Miller or Wong level of draftees, or maybe even at the Cox level.
On the other hand, you can’t draft what isn’t there to be drafted. Lou’s comments above are telling. If these guys are all potentially gone before #19 despite the damning with faint praise, then there simply may not be superior alternatives; it’s considered a weak draft class, after all.
On the basis of obviously incomplete information to date, I guess I’d be satisfied to be able to get Trahan.
In a chat yesterday, one of the BA writers, Conor Glassey, said he grade this year’s draft pool as a 45 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He said last year’s draft was a 65-70.
There are always good players, even in a weak draft. The Cards’ scouts have found some incredible talent early, late, and every round in between the past several drafts. We have to hope they’ve found some this year as well.
Maybe they’ll take a leap and do what Carioca suggested, pooling several rounds’ worth of bonus money to grab a great talent who drops and would otherwise go to college. There seem to be some decent college seniors out there if the Cards need below-slot picks to make up for a big bang.
The only problem with this is if you don’t sign someone you don’t keep that amount in your overall money pool. You lose the amount that was allotted to that pick.
It’s always good to have a lot of picks but I feel it’s even more important to have a bunch of early picks in a weaker draft.
But honestly, no one is truly going to know the strength of this draft until 4, 5, or 6 years from now.
I completely agree with you on this. I seemed a little underwhelmed with all of the guys mentioned. With a number 1 pick the write up shouldn’t be trying to convince you they may be what others think they won’t be. regarding Almora at 55 as a CF isn’t very fast. That’s like Jon Jay.
I like Stroman, but I worry about his workload this year—hasn’t he thrown 115-120 four or five times already?
That Russell kid sounds real interesting; maybe a potential J.J.Hardy type (not that I’m suggesting 30 dingers, but more like .280 with 18-22 bombs consistently).
With the teen outfield depth drafted just last year, I’m more inclined to look at middle infielders, catchers, and slugging types this year, assuming there are 50/50 calls at any particular draft slot.
[...] Some of the players who have been projected to be selected by the Cardinals are covered at Future Redbirds. -LINK [...]
We definitely need a top flight catching prospect and Trahan fits the bill. Yadi is tough and durable, but he won’t last forever and it’s time to get someone who can replace him in 5 years. Shortstop, of course, is our other big concern. No star potential in the minors, although I want to see what Ryan Jackson can do, plus one of Matt Williams, Garrett Wittels, Greg Garcia, Vance Albitz, Kenneth Peoples-Walls and Sam Tuivailalalala (hey I think I know that song! Hum a few more bars.) might just pan out to be above average. So drafting any of these shortstops would be fine with me: Russell, Cecchini or Carlos Correa with our second pick.
I’m looking for Joey Gallo, Nick Williams or Matt Smoral/Hunter Vibrant. They may be off the board but it’s also possible that they aren’t.
Gallo is a guy I am keeping a close eye on as well and was high on coming into the season. Biggest issue is how many times he swings and misses and he has shown no improvement this year so I am starting to cool on him a touch.
I agree with wileyvet we need a top catching prospect.Plus a few more Matt adamses.Great arms are always in abundance its that stand out position player in the slot that we need to pick up on.
2012 MLB MOCK DRAFT DATABASE
http://dcprosportsreport.com/mocks/MLBMocks.htm
All guys mentioned are interesting and someone else mentioned Stryker which is also another very interesting pick. Another guy to keep an eye on is Courtney Hawkins (HS OF/P). I like him as an OF and feel he would be a great pick if he makes it to 19 as well.