Which SP Prospect Will Graduate First?
Posted on April 13th, 2012 by Andy Beard in analysis, tags: joe kelly, shelby miller, Trevor RosenthalIn reply to a question about which starting pitching prospect would be called upon to replace Carpenter should his injury prove insurmountable, Joe Strauss provided a curious response and he apparently reiterated a similar sentiment on the radio days later:
First of all, assuming Carp’ is ‘shelved for the year’ has no basis at this time. Neither is assuming that Shelby Miller is close to ready for this level. There are many within the organization who see Joe Kelly as a rising option should further need arise within the rotation. Based on his velocity, his maturity and his makeup, Trevor Rosenthal has won many admirers within the organization, including the major-league clubhouse. Folks need to re-think some of their assumptions.
I am guessing that Strauss’s sentiment does not line up with the thinking represented in the Future Redbirds community, but it does not jive with several pre-season ranking systems either. Rosenthal and Kelly were unanimously ranked below Miller, Martinez, and Jenkins. See the table below. For the record, I did not consult sites that listed rankings behind a pay wall. Also, this discussion might become irrelevant if Lance Lynn continues to impress in the rotation.
| Player | MLB.com | John Sickels | Baseball America | Kevin Goldstein |
| Shelby Miller | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Carlos Martinez | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Tyrell Jenkins | 4 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Trevor Rosenthal | 7 | 10 | 11 | 8 |
| Joe Kelly | 12 | 17 | - | 16 |
Strauss’s statement does not necessarily argue that Kelly and/or Rosenthal should be regarded as better prospects than Miller, Martinez, or Jenkins, just that they would get first crack at the big leagues. Even so, it is interesting that the organization would consider promoting Rosenthal and/or Kelly over Shelby Miller, the most highly touted prospect in the system whose performance has met, if not exceeded, lofty expectations. In terms of who will reach St. Louis first, Carlos Martinez and Tyrell Jenkins are at obvious disadvantages since they have started the 2012 season in single-A, and so I will focus on Kelly, Rosenthal, and Miller.
Let’s tackle Joe Kelly first. Despite taking parts of three seasons to escape single-A, Kelly starts 2012 in triple-A at 23 years of age. Kelly has maintained acceptable strikeout numbers (~20% K/PA) and impressive ground ball rates (between 56% and 65%) throughout his minor league career, and he even managed to cut down on walks at double-A last season (9.5% BB/PA in 59.1 IP). Given his ability to induce grounders via sinking fastballs, he might benefit from superior defenders as he progresses through the system. Having said that, Ryan Jackson and his well regarded glove followed Kelly from Springfield to Memphis, so his past struggles cannot be attributed to porous defense entirely.
Trevor Rosenthal elevated his prospect status with a strong spring training performance that included surprise 100 mph velocity rumors and compliments about “attitude” and “guts” paid by Chris Carpenter(!). It is easy to get carried away with such hype but Rosenthal’s numbers at Quad Cities were nothing short of excellent in 2011. He struck out 25.9% of the batters he faced, walked less than 8%, and generated ground balls 52% of the time. And now he was rewarded with a spot in Springfield’s rotation. Provided ongoing success, he’ll climb through the system quickly for sure, and his peripherals suggest superior talent to Kelly. But… will Rosenthal get promoted before Shelby Miller? Really?
Just as a reminder, Shelby Miller dominated Quad Cities at 19-years-old, or two years younger than Rosenthal did. He also struck out more hitters while showing similar control (7.5% BB/PA) and generating slightly fewer ground balls (46%). Shelby then went on to excel in 80+ innings at double-A, hence my surprise when Rosenthal was suggested as a legitimate candidate to get promoted first. This discussion has obviously been colored by questions of Shelby’s maturity (alcohol incident in 2011) and present conditioning (weight loss before 2012).
Is Rosenthal better suited for MLB than Shelby at this time? What we have is data that points to the latter but anecdotal support for the former. Pragmatism suggests that Rosenthal needs to justify his aggressive promotion to an extreme hitters league before we should expect him to skip another step of the minors (triple-A Memphis) on his way to the big show. Should he stumble in this challenge, then this conversation becomes irrelevant.
Confession: my initial reaction to this rumor was defensive. Maybe some of you can relate. I think that response stems from hypersensitivity that developed over time to young players that were arguably mishandled (e.g. Anthony Reyes, Brendan Ryan, Colby Rasmus, etc.), but maybe we need not be so paranoid now that Tony LaRussa has retired. This looks like an organization very interested in creating a fluid approach from top to bottom. In the new era, prospects have been given greater exposure to veterans, and minor league coaches – not just players – have been promoted to the big leagues.
Upon further consideration, I think this says very little about Shelby Miller and everything about Trevor Rosenthal. That Rosenthal even has a chance to rival Miller’s standing in this organization should be considered a blessing, not a curse.
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Thanks. I missed those comments. Would there also be a concern about starting Shelby’s clock in the majors?
It does seem reasonble for the Cardinals to be cautious with Shelby even though he has pitched well and is so highly rated. The team might be worried about the effect of his being shelled in the majors, or the experience hindering the development of his secondary pitches. That might be less of a concern with Kelly, or even Rosenthal. It may be wise to ease Shelby along.
The big surprise to me is that they wouldn’t be calling up Broderick or Dickson, who both have some brief MLB experience. While Dickson and Broderick wouldn’t be amazing, I don’t think Kelly or Rosenthal would be stars right out of the gate either. Maybe Miller would be, but maybe not.
I’d try to get by with Dickson, personally, before I cracked open any faberge eggs.
That’s a big part. They won’t consider bringing in Shelby Miller to the big league club until at least July because they don’t want to expose him to Super Two status.
I got a little defensive too, but then I remembered it was Strauss, who seems to know barely anything about the Cardinals minor league system.
Well, the question isn’t really whether Strauss knows anything about the minor league system because the question isn’t about who is a better prospect between Miller, Rosenthal, and Kelly. It’s about who the ML team would likely call up if Carp were shelved for the full year and another starter besides Lynn were needed.
At this point, Kelly and Miller have about the same number innings in AAA, very few (but Kelly is older, of course). Neither are on the 40-man roster. I don’t think it’s obvious that Shelby would be called up before Kelly. Probbaly depends on who is pitching better in Memphis.
(And if only a couple of spot starts are needed, it’s likely to be Dickson anyway, since he’s already on the 40-man.)
How much of a feel does Strauss actually have with the new regime? I always got a feel that the he was fed by the Larussa, Duncan, Dyar Miller mostly the the old coaching staff. Troll Strauss is going to starve without these guys.
Who knows? But I’m guessing it’s a better feel than most of us have since he actually talks with these people. He’s covered the game for some time now. I don’t think we can just discount what he says because we don’t appreciate his cynicism.
I don’t see Strauss’ analysis as necessarily toxic. In Shelby Miller we have a guy who is a potential #1 or #2 starter, the kind who can carry a pitching staff for a long time. It is not obvious to me that using a guy like that in a fill-in MLB role helps him develop into what he could be. With Dickson and Broderick, a fill-in call-up isn’t going to hurt their development any, because they’re basically as good already as they’re ever going to get. Rosie, Kelly and maybe John Gast (Goldstein had very nice things to say about him today) occupy a middle ground: possible #3 guys who may or may not be at a #5 level already.
There is room among this cadre of starters for real discussion about what’s best in both short and long term. That’s a luxury that not many farm systems have.
Agreed. Your last two sentences are pretty much my take away message.
Strauss, “Folks need to re-think some of their assumptions.” :) That is really a hilarious line. A guy who derided the Cards farms system for a decade based on very little actual knowledge of the system now tells the reading public they are all caught up in assumptions. Go tell ‘em Joe.
I loathe Strauss, but I think he’s spot on about Rosenthal and the prospect rankings, which I think is at the heart of this (he tweeted something like “Someone explain to me how Rosenthal is not a three pitching prospect for the Cards”). The assumption is that Rosenthal is behind Miller, Martinez, Jenkins and maybe Swagerty in the prospect rankings for pitchers. Why? He has awesome numbers across the board, throws a billion miles an hour, has a good frame physically, and apparently has a decent mental makeup. Can we say those things about Jenkins (or even Miller or Martinez)? But Rosenthal was taken 20 rounds later than Jenkins so it’s taking everyone a very long time to come around on him. I agree that it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
Spot on. Same thing applies to Adams status as a prospect.
The system needed to be ripped. Until recently, it was terrible for the past decade. It wasn’t until Lunhow was in control the system started making strides.
Remember, there were people clammoring for Shelby to start at the major league level….Last year. The cards are historicly slow moving with their prospects. Its not suprising that the 2 they did rush a bit had maturity melt downs.
Couldn’t agree more, jj. I actually like Strauss, and enjoy his chats, but that re-think remark is the pot callin’ the kettle.
“Lefty has at least #4 starter potential, and maybe more,” was Goldstein’s quote, re: John Gast. I’ll take that, for the southpaw who was considered roughly the 8th or 9th-best pitching prospect in the system during the off-season.
For what it’s worth, John Sickels had this to say a few months back: “Live-armed lefty needs to polish up his command. Has stuff of a #3 starter, or could dominate in the pen.”
So there you have it; Gast, almost an afterthought among Redbird farmhands, has #3/4 potential. Yowza.
I do hope that Gast is indeed a #3 starter type, that would be very welcome news to goalong with our other pitching in the minors..
If Carp is gone all year Mo calls up Oswalt. Mo and the organization wouldn’t risk hurting a prospects confidence who isn’t ready based to fill in for Carp. Miller isn’t ready. He needs to work on his off speed offering and is being hit by AAA hitters pretty good right now. Rosenthal is one level below Shelby. I think he has a better reperotie than Miller does right now but again you dont throw someone like that to the MLB level. Kelly has pitched well this year but don’t want to throw him into the fire. Brandon Dickson would probably be a spot starter if one of the other starters goes down for a limited period this year but if Carp is gone all year we get an established guy. Good organizations don’t throw top prospects into the fire before they are ready. Kelly, Miller and Rosenthal aren’t ready. Unless you want to bring them in to get beat up badly. Best case sceniro is do like we did with Dan Haren, bring up miller in July or August to work in the pen as the long guy. 2 or 3 innings getting his feet wet minimizing chances for failure.
It seems to me that Strauss’s skepticism about Cardinal prospects over the years, especially the overhyped and vastly overrated Rasmus, has been mostly well warranted. Not being positive about the system does not mean one doesn’t know it. He has actually been more positive this year, especially about Rosenthal’s arm and Jackson’s glove. Nonetheless, last night’s latest mediocre starts by Miller and Rosenthal, to say nothing of atrocious relief efforts by Reifer and Cleto, suggest that a measure of skepticism is still in order.
One game doesn’t make a prospect. Rosenthal hung a curveball in the first and had a tight zone and a relative lack of control. He was sitting at a higher rate than any MLB pitcher on our staff.
Miller pitched well but gave up a HR in the 4th and then 3 straight hits with 2 outs in the 5th.
Sure ERA’s look ugly but there are circumstances behind every pitching line.
I disagree with Strauss on two major points:
1. He believes prospects have little to no tangible value to the organization until they produce at the major league level.
2. He believes people like us — the so-called Hyperventilating Prospect Geek Fraternity — are delusional for even discussing the prospects of minor league players.
That being said, I believe Stauss’s greatest offenses are also two-fold:
1. He has little to no knowledge of the Cardinals farm system.
2. He gives little to no credit to the Cardinals farm system for the home-grown players who have actually excelled at the major league level.
I understand his job is to cover the big club, and Derrick Goold is thankfully the yin to his yang. I just don’t like the way he relishes his ignorance.
Then again, I guess that’s what journalism has become everywhere … even in the sports section.
The fact there is a discussion about this seems to be a great thing about prospects that are exciting getting closer and closer to the Bigs! Anyone getting concerned or too excited about an outing or 2 should relax a bit. Seasons are long and a few starts should never be concerning unless a big drop in velocity that might indicate injury. Everyone take a deep breathe…wait 3-4 weeks and then see where are guys are at.