The system split its two games played today with a Springfield loss and Palm Beach win. Oscar Taveras won the poll with 2 hits (1 of which was a HR), though his competition was reduced since Kolten Wong didn’t play and Starlin Rodriguez exited his game early. Seth Maness continues an impressive run of control. Details after the jump…
- Kyle Conley was 2-for-3 with 2 solo HRs and a walk.
- Oscar Taveras was 2-for-5 with a 2-run HR (4th of season) and single.
- Jake Shaffer had a 3-for-5 day that included 1 double and 2 RBIs.
- Jose Garcia was 2-for-5 with 2 runs scored.
- Adam Melker had a hit while Greg Garcia added 2 walks.
- Michael Blazek‘s outing was nightmarish. In 4.0 innings, he surrendered 8 hits (2 HR), 4 walks, and 9 runs (all earned). He did have 5 strike outs.
- Justin Wright struck out 2 hitters in 2.0 innings pitched, allowing a solo HR in the process.
- Keith Butler pitched 2.0 scoreless frames that featured 2 strike outs against 1 walk.
- Mike O’Neill, Starlin Rodriguez, Nicholas Longmire, and Ronny Gil all had 1 hit that was a double. Gil also stole a base.
- Alan Ahmady, Geoffrey Klein, and Jonathan Rodriguez all went 1-for-3 with a single and 1 walk. Rodriguez added a stolen base.
- Vance Albitz replaced Starlin Rodriguez in the 3rd inning and went on to add a single of his own. I’m not sure why the defensive switch was needed.
- Seth Maness was outstanding. He equaled innings pitched with strike outs (7 each) and only allowed 3 hits, all of which were singles. To top it all off, he induced 11 groundouts against 3 flyouts. For those keeping track, that’s 21 strike outs against ZERO(!) walks on the season. Wow. And his GO:AO ratio is 3.75.
- Zach Russell struggled a bit, allowing 1 HR and 2 walks in his 1.o IP. He struck out 1 hitter.
- Logan Billbrough struck out 2 hitters in his perfect 9th inning.
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Maness is secretly having a good year under the radar. He is needs to be promoted to AA maybe send down Blazek he gave up 9 runs today.
Looks like Maness is first man out….cuz better than CMart is pretty darn good! Guessing that Gorgen will move up when a spot comes available – then it will be a ripple effect.
Even with 0 walks on the year his FIP is still over 3.00
Care to explain FIP?
Fangraph’s has a decent write-up. Basically it’s to determine how good a pitcher is without factoring how good or bad his defense is.
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/fip/
If he has a .67 ERA with an FIP of 3.00 wouldn’t that mean that Palm Beach defense is making every pitcher seem a lot better than they really are? I don’t buy that having seen most of the people on that team last year when they were in Quad Cities.
No, because team defense does not account for all or most of the difference between ERA and FIP.
FIP tries to eliminate defensive aspects, as well as luck (by not using IBB, singles, doubles, or triples for example) from the pitching analysis equation. I think the reason why his FIP is at 3 stems from the .9 HR/9 rate. That is above the league average of .7 as a point of comparison. HRs are weighted the heaviest in the FIP stat.
Fangraphs has not counted his start from tonight, so it should go down considering he had no walks or homeruns, with 7 Ks.
That his FIP is higher than his ERA would most likely indicate that he is on the good end of some luck currently. The LOB% would support that conclusion.
Similar to BABIP, but not quite.
Its a general reference tool rather than an accurate measurement of pitching. FIP is really used more as a predictor stat rather than a true measurement of performance. It really should be used to measure against a particular pitcher’s past performance rather than other pitchers.
The key flaw to these stats is the total disregard to the “art of pitching”. Its like saying Dave Duncan knows nothing. The key reason is because the stat assumes the pitcher has no control of the at bat out side a strike out, HR, Walk or HBP).
FIP and similar DIP stats is that ground ball pitchers and pitchers who rely on movement have a naturally lower hit rate not because they are lucky, but because they are skilled.
Its a good stat to use in the right context.
There’s little statistical evidence that “the art of pitching” is a real thing. For every Dave Duncan success, there’s a Sidney Ponson or a Kip Wells or a Mike Maroth.
The key take away is that FIP (and it’s variants) are the best predictive statistic of a pitcher’s future performance. Notably, they are better predictors of future ERA than past ERA is.
“FIP is really used more as a predictor stat rather than a true measurement of performance.”
I want to disagree with this for a moment to because I think it’s a flawed argument. While it’s true that FIP is not a good descriptive tool of the past game, I think it is a good descriptive tool when trying to measure past performance. In other words, FIP won’t very well tell you when a pitcher allowed 5 runs or 1 run or 7 runs but it will tell you whether we should characterize that start as a good or bad start. FIP is a much better option in that regard than ERA, imo.
To an extent, I think a lot of people understand and utilize the fundamentals of FIP without realizing it. At it’s core, FIP says that peripheral statistics like strikeout rate, walk rate and homerun rate are more important than runs allowed or RBI. So, if you think those peripherals are important then FIP (which is just an agglomeration of those) should be important to you too.
And that is the thing.
To determine the quality of pitcher Sidney Ponson is, you use FIP to measure his FIPs verse other FIPs.
I also disagree on using FIP on such a small sample size as a single game.
Like any stat, FIP is flawed when used out of contest. ERA is still the best stat we have available to measure pitcher success, but it really only works for starting pitchers once they accumulated enough innings.
I think as the statistical business side of baseball is becoming more well known, accepted and better measured, true dip stats that incoporate batted ball types like tRA will be easier to read and more readily available.
I wouldn’t recommend FIP on a sample size of one game but it’s better than ERA on a single game.
ERA is categorically not the best stat we have to measure pitcher success because it doesn’t isolate pitcher success. You are missing the point of FIP and this is a long settled debate.
I didn’t do a good job explaining myself. My point is no stat is a good catch all for measuring anything.
ERA is still the best measure of success we have because its a more accurate gauge of outcome, i.e. measure of actual runs scored (with human error tossed in with Official scorers). A pitcher’s job is to prevent runs from being scored. ERA’s best benefit then lies in its basic simplicity. It reflects that and only that.
FIP on the otherhand is not a measurement of outcome, but rather a measurement of the peripherals that influence outcome.
With ERA, I can measure the runs a person gave up.
FIP is a more telling stat in that FIP can estimate how repeatable that performance is. With FIP, I can estimate how well they do at limiting runs scoring opportunities, but I can’t definitively say which pitcher is better, or which pitcher “pitched” the best. This is why its good as an individual stat an not as good as a ranking stat. Simply put, when the only true “control” is the pitcher, its best as measurement against himself, but less accurate when comparing other pitchers. Because part of pitching is not only limiting pitching jams, but getting out of them. Left hand vs. right handed. I might be a pitcher that gives up more singles, but less XBH. I might be a Verlander or Carpenter that become tougher to hit with runners on. All influence FIP in different way, but not one particular way that makes one a better pitcher.
The problem is, people want definitive answers in sports. Winners, losers, BCS vs. Playoffs. But when using stats to rank players, not such thing exists except the scoreboard.
FIP is an ERA estimator, not a predictor or a stat for projection per se (though it’s better at predicting future ERA than past ERA is). You might read something like this to get a better understanding of how ERA estimators and projection systems work and how well they do projecting ERA. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/are-pitching-projections-better-than-era-estimators/
I think the reason his FIP is that much higher has to do with his % of stranded baserunners being 98.7%, which is unsustainable.
Still, 3.00 seems high, but I don’t know every aspect of the calculation, and am not sure that I care to.
A 3 FIP is excellent. FIP just tries to humanize a guy walking around with a sub 1 ERA. We can all live with that.
For the record, if you’re referring to his 3.10 FIP, I don’t think that includes yesterday’s start.
Of course, it’s a lot easier to have a dominant-looking pitching performance in PB than in Springfield. Still, I’d like to see him move up. Let’s see whether a guy who has impeccable command can get more advanced hitters out without overpowering stuff. If he can, well …
Note that Goldstein had nice things to say about him today.
link?
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16675
Maness has walked only 5 batters in his total of 80 pro innings dating back to last year. Any pitcher with that kind of command gets my attention in a hurry.
Looks like we got ourselves another toolsy 2B in Starlin Rodriguez too bad he’s blocked by Wong.
I think they should try to move him to CF..
Or they could make him a utility guy. Or trade bait. Cardinals have a number of very good 2B prospects right now.
Probably time to start looking at Blazek for a bullpen role.
Strand rate is not part of FIP calculation
(13*HR+3*BB-2*K) / IP + 3.2
Maness’s FIP is over 3 due to 2 HR in 20 IP and only 14 K
At what point do we worry about Taveras’ BB rate? I know he’s lacing the balls he puts in play, but he’s walked only once this year in 77 ABs.
He hits it because he can. As he faces better pitchers, he will have to start being more selective, but as of now, I’m not concerned at all. He is so young and has a lot of time on his side.
Why be picky. If you can hit it why take it.
any news on Roberto De La Cruz with QC
I don’t have a link…I just know the equation…unless arknepp wasn’t askin me for a link, then disregard