Whither the Walk
Posted on April 30th, 2012 by azruavatar in analysis, tags: Matt Adams, Oscar Taveras, Walk RateOne of the things that those who follow the Cardinals’ farm system right now have to struggle with is that the two top hitting prospects, Matt Adams and Oscar Taveras, have a very similar hitting profile but one that isn’t found among many elite players. This concern, the dearth of walks, has been a common refrain here and it’s a legitimate concern but it’s also one that we’ll simply have to adapt to.
I’ve made comparisons for Matt Adams before based on his statistical profile and while Taveras differs in his defensive capabilities, offensively, he’s not that far off from Adams. Both players hit for elite levels of power, make consistent contact with moderate strikeout rates and don’t walk much. But what exactly does that last piece look like in the majors?
Let’s say that Adams and Taveras have a peak batting average around .330, which would be among the leaders in the MLB. If you vary their walk rates between 5-10%, which is around where they’ve been, you start to get a picture of what that looks like for their on base percentage in a full season. You can also see what types of players did that in 2011.
| PAs | Walk % | AVG | Hits | OBP | Walks | 2011 Player Comp |
| 650 | 10 | 0.330 | 193 | 0.397 | 65 | Ryan Braun |
| 650 | 7.5 | 0.330 | 198 | 0.380 | 49 | Michael Young |
| 650 | 5 | 0.330 | 204 | 0.365 | 33 | - |
| 650 | 10 | 0.315 | 184 | 0.383 | 65 | - |
| 650 | 7.5 | 0.315 | 189 | 0.366 | 49 | Pablo Sandoval |
| 650 | 5 | 0.315 | 194 | 0.349 | 33 | Daniel Murphy |
| 650 | 10 | 0.300 | 176 | 0.371 | 65 | Alex Gordon |
| 650 | 7.5 | 0.300 | 180 | 0.352 | 49 | Yadier Molina |
| 650 | 5 | 0.300 | 185 | 0.335 | 33 | Starlin Castro |
| 650 | 10 | 0.290 | 170 | 0.362 | 65 | Billy Butler |
| 650 | 7.5 | 0.290 | 174 | 0.343 | 49 | James Loney |
| 650 | 5 | 0.290 | 179 | 0.326 | 33 | Eric Hosmer |
| 650 | 10 | 0.280 | 164 | 0.352 | 65 | Travis Hafner |
| 650 | 7.5 | 0.280 | 168 | 0.334 | 49 | Ramon Hernandez |
| 650 | 5 | 0.280 | 173 | 0.317 | 33 | Adam Jones |
This is purely anecdotal in nature but these low walk, high contact, high average players do exist. Some of them are even very valuable. Ryan Braun is a lofty goal to compare any prospect too but someone like Pablo Sandoval shows how elite power can compensate for the lack of walks.
The biggest concern with low walk guys has to be the strikeout rate. Adams and Taveras like to swing the bat. They do it a lot. Since they can make contact with most of what comes at them, this allows them to foul off bad pitches. Since they swing the bat hard, they can muscle through some singles that might otherwise be outs.
If, however, a pitcher is able to find a hole in their plate coverage and exploit their high swing rate tendencies, it can all unravel. That’s the fear. That’s the worst case scenario. Adams and Taveras are not highly selective at the plate but so long as they make contact, they can succeed.
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Something I am curious about. What is the pitching philosophy in the minors to hitters like Taverez and Adams?
Do minor league pitcher pitch around them, or are they challenged as part of the learning process. I know as a coach/organization, I would not want my pitcher pitching around guys in AA. I would want them to go after them.
You go after them unless you are in a situation where the coach calls for an IBB.
If you nibble or not aggressive, that goes into the report the manager has to write up and send to management after every game.
Cardinals like high velo pitchers to pound the zone repeatedly, they don’t care if you get hit as long as you are aggressive. Unfortunetly with a starting pitcher you have to have more pitches in your arsenal (and better command) because the third to fourth time through the line up they know what’s coming (and that appears to be happening with some of the pitchers).
I am not sure he has a true out pitch, that is why he can’t put hitters away.
p coach or manager I meant.
And I meant Miller, and others on the out pitch.
Taveras will be fine. His strike out rate is miniscule. If he had a hole in his swing to be exposed, you’d have to think we’d see some of that at double-A. I don’t think his walk rate is concerning at all. He’s crushing the ball. Pitchers will being to pitch him more selectively and he will take more walks. He’s taken 3 these last two games. It seems like every day people express worry about Tavares. I don’t get it. He’s killing double-A at 19. Now that Trout and Harper are up, he should be consider as one of the top, if not the top, position prospects in the game along with Machado and Profar.
Well said.
Taveras will be fine as john said. Taveras is still very raw. I think as he matures at the plate he will get a better eye and eventually draw more walks and be disciplined at the plate. He doesn’t strikeout that much either makes good hard contact every At Bat…
Adams can flat out rake at the plate but he is a aggressive hitter hope he develops some patience at the plate. Or the Major League pitchers will tear him up.
this is just another reason to keep pushing oscar to see how he does in center field. i know there’s a lot of pessimism about his ability to stick there, but there’s no reason to give up on him until it’s absolutely clear that he can’t hack it in center.
there will be a lot more forgiveness for the downside of taveras’s projection if he’s playing center.
adams, being a firstbaseman or bust type player, has less leeway, and really needs to hit the top half of his projection to stick.
Your right about Taveras playing CF. Saw him last week for Springfield he has good range out strong arm in CF and is a really good athlete to play the position. What would happen if he sticks there what position does Jay move to because he is hitting real well this season. You think Taveras moves to a corner OF position.
The question is how Jay is hitting in two years and who else is on the roster. Jay is a 4th outfielder with Taveras, Holliday, Craig in the OF (if he can stick in CF).
Can we hve a “What’s wrong with Shelby?” post tomorrow. Instead of daily worries about Taveras, maybe we should be worrying about our top pitching prospect sucking it up in Memphis.
A little bit of control issues but 29 strikeouts in 22 innings should give you warm fuzzies. Miller’s fine.
i am hoping McGwire will be able to teach Adams some of the patience he leaned during his smashing years.
Not sure what you mean by “sucking it up.” he has a better than 4:1 k/bb rate. He’s having terrible hr/fb luck, and terrible batted ball luck (.417). It would be a short article, which would just say “small sample size.”
Excuse me – better than 3:1 k/bb.
I think there is a legit discussion that could be made about why Miller isn’t living up to expectations so far this year.
Seeing a few of his games I have a few things.
1. It doesn’t seem he’s throwing as hard as he did last year.
2. He’s having issue putting guys away when he’s ahead of them.
3. He is getting unlucky with balls being dinked and dunked.
4. When they do get a good pitch to hit they rip it hard because his ball doesn’t have as much natural movement as betfore.
5. He’s still relying too much on his FB.
Is Shelby possibly suffering the consequences of his aggressive diet this winter? If his velocity is down and he doesn’t have as much natural movement, what other explanations are there? Could he be hurt?
It’s possible who knows.
It could also be that he’s one of the youngest pitchers in AAA and he’s still adjusting to a higher talent level that includes a number of AAAA guys. Also, I haven’t heard that Miller’s velocity is down. If you have numbers to back up that theory (unless those numbers come from Springfield’s radar gun or their announcers), please post them.
Miller is in Memphis not springfield.
Where is his release point (Andrew can you answer this), if it is high, with his height and velo it may be an illusion the ball is rising. Smarter hitters in AAA, they are more patient than younger hitters, they will sit on it rather than swing.
It’s very hard to ask a young guy who is used to winning to be patient and work on their stuff rather than get the W. That’s where mental maturity cones in.
That’s why moving these guys too quickly is tough on them.
He’s a little over 3/4 deliever. He has a very smooth delievery which adds to the illusion of velocity on the hitters part. I don’t think Miller has been rushed. He spent the whole year in QC. Palm Beach for 2 months and he had nothing else to learn there. In Springfield he pitched well albeit probably didn’t work on his secondary stuff like he should have. He’s just going to have to take his lumps working on stuff over winning now. He isn’t a MLB pitcher with just his FB. Rather he learn it now than in STL.
I thought that he had a lot to learn, obviously he could have benefited from working with Martinez. I think that they want him with more mature players.
The thing is there are no requirements as to what you have to do. The way it’s looked upon, you are your own best advocate, if you want extra help with batting or pitching, no one will turn you away, but then again no one penalizes you if you don’t show up. The same goes for the off season.
That’s probably not a smart philosophy for someone you invested 3.1 million dollars into. The Cardinals are majorly invested in Miller.
I don’t buy that last line. We know that from the weightgate scandal. We know that there was a workout program that players were to adhere to and if they didn’t the people at the Top of the food chain Mo, Matheny, Lilliquist, DeWitt were informed.
What was the weightgate scandal? Is this something you know or you heard? Have you ever seen that weight/worrkout program? Is this something you know for a fact?
They cannot tell you what you can or cannot do in the off season, no matter what they have invested in a player. They can (but they don’t) like many teams do, have winter camps, where they can call in players to see how they are doing. I don’t think they would go take a visit unless they felt there was a problem. Do you?
They may have very well had a specific reason for going to visit Miller. Why does an organization have to drop in on a normal healthy 21 year old to see if he is working out properly?
The players union protects ML players from management telling them what they can and can’t do in the off season, not sure about milb players.
It was an article during Spring Training about the Cardinals being concerned that Miller had lost so much weight over the off season. He was on a fat reduction diet/workout program but the organization was concerned that being that lean would mean that by the end of the season he would be losing muscle because of the grind rather than losing fat. Thought this would hurt his stamina long term this season. Each group of players got a special workout program i.e. those that needed to lose fat, those that needed to gain muscle, those that needed to add flexibility.
Miller had lot a ton of weight and when an organization visited him torward the end of the winter they were immediately concerned and had him start eating more to try to gain some weight back. The article mentioned that players not adhering to the program would be known to Higher Ups.
It wasn’t that they wanted to check on if he was working out properly just in the regular visit they found he had lost too much weight. I’m suprised you didn’t read the article when it came out in March. It was mentioned by Lilligquist during a Spring interview and it lead Miller to tweet, I’ve been told I need to eat more Twinkies.
I read it and refrain from an answer to the article as I believe much of what is stated often times in articles by organizations is smoke and mirrors for reasons other than what we really know (not that I know the real reason).
I have never heard of a team visiting their players in the off season, did they visit anyone else, usually they have camps, where they can check up on their young players.
Just curious about what weightgate (is that your term) was really all about.
What’s with the conspiracy theories? You don’t think teams keep an eye on young prospects who had been suspended for an alchohol incident a few weeks before the season ended?
2 seperate visiting announcers when mentioning Millers velocity during the game mentioned 90-91 and that the numbers weren’t as high as reputed. There was a report from Spring from someone on a Marlins Blog reported he was between 89-91 and not over 93 during one of the last Spring games. And from watching when the video feed is going smoothly it doesn’t seem he has that extra life to the ball.
It also seems that he’s having more trouble putting guys away. He gets most of his K’s on fastballs. That tells me he doesn’t/cant yet throw his curve to finish off a batter. This year his K’s are usually climbing the ladder and called strikes on the corner. If batters can expect the fastball on 0-2 they can foul a lot of pitches off i.e. Wellington Castillo fouling off 6 pitches on 3-2 before a curveball K. Travis Wood fouling off 3. When he’s 0-2 if he can’t get a call or a swinging strike often the count makes its way back to 3-2.
My diagnosis is…Needs to work on a cutter and 2 seamer and a curveball.
Get more outs early in counts so the pitch count doesn’t rise.
Beginning of season pitchers are asked (all organizations) what pitches they would like to further develop. Most only get one or two (if they think they can handle it). Many guys use the off season to work on them or their bull pen sessions. Keep in mind that many ML guys are still working on a 3rd or 4th pitch.
What we propose or think that he should to do is easier said than done. It takes a very long time for a young pitcher to develop his arsenal, that is usually why the cards always took college pitchers and one reason why I do not understand why he is in AAA, for now.
What else did he have to do in AA? He dominated the Texas League. I don’t think it’s really smart that the organization asks the pitchers what they want to throw. Say hey work on this pitch. Every starter needs a change up. Ok 20 changeups a game like Rosenthal last year. We have one of the best cutters in baseball in Chris Carpenter(a guy who likes to teach others) done work on this cutter during games. Want to run it in on the batter here hold the fastball across these seams to game the right handers.
He doesn’t have to have perfected it just has to be willing to throw it in game situations. If he’s not the pitches should be called from the bench for the pitchers own good.
Maybe the Cardinals need a Crash Davis for Miller.
Do you think that if he were there now he would dominate?
If he were where now?
I just figured out Taveras’ offensive problems…. He doesn’t have any.
Speaking of Taveras, in his last 4 games hes 6-13 with 2 doubles, 1hr, 3 bb’s and 0k’s If you want to add 2 more games he’s 10-22 with 4 doubles, 3 hr’s 3 bb’s and 4 k’s.
None of those arguments about miller can be squared with the fact that he’s still striking a ton of guys out. If he’s losing movement on his fastball, losing velocity, relying too much on his fb, or falling behind hitters, he wouldn’t be striking out as many guys as he is. His k rate is exactly in line with his rate from last year.
Saying he’s getting dinked and dunked is just the same as what I said; he’s having bad batted ball luck. And he’s given up 4 homers in short order.
On top of that, he’s a 21-year-old, the equivalent of a college junior, pitching in a league with an average age of 26.
A year ago he was pitching in the Florida State League. Two years ago he was struggling in the Midwest League. Three years ago he was a senior in high school.
I’ve watched many of his games pitched. Yes, he’s being dinked and dunked but when they hit the ball the really blast the ball so he’s getting hit harder too. 5 HR’s in I htink 5 starts in the non Coors Field type fields. They haven’t even headed West yet. Sure what I said squares with it because even with all the things I’ve said the fastball he has still is better than the bats of many of the players.
Listening to Memphis game last night the announcer remarked, (according to coaches statements) that Shelby’s
secondary pitches have not been developed enough and at this level hitters are sitting on the fastball, knowing
that is the only pitch he has confidence in throwing. If that be the case, Shelby might not be as close as we think.
There were reports in spring training that Miller’s velocity was down. Haven’t heard anything since then. The secondary pitch explanation above may have some credence but right now he is not looking like a pitcher that is going to be ready to pitch in the major leagues by the start of next season.