Catching up on our poll from a couple days back, Seth Maness pitched another 7 innings without a walk putting his season total at 34. 47% of you voted for “5+ innings” of walkless baseball. The rest of the non-believers shall be shunned.
A great lineup of arms today around the farm.
Memphis @ Round Rock, 7:05pm – Joe Kelly
Springfield vs. NW Arkansas, 7:08pm – Trevor Rosenthal
Palm Beach vs. Brevard County, 6:35pm – Anthony Ferrara
Quad Cities @ Burlington, 5:00pm – Kyle Hald
Quad Cities @ Burlington, TBD – Sam Gaviglio
Entries (RSS)
I like this group.
Any chance Joe Kelly has a shot as the #5 guy in St. Louis next year?
Doubt it. Seems like the #6 guy, and the safety net in case injuries happen. Waino, Garcia, and Carpenter all figure to be locks (assuming they are healthy) given their contracts. Unless Lance Lynn falls off the face of the earth, he’s going to be one as well. That final spot is likely Shelby Miller’s to lose or they could opt to pick up Westbrook’s option and push back Shelby’s debut a year more.
Yes their is a chance. He could potentially compete with Shelby for that Spot. Kelly is a more polished pitcher than Shelby but stuff wise Shelby wins that spot. Shelby still needs to polish up more before he pitches in the Big Leagues but I think he will eventually figure it out.
Potential 2012 Rotation
1.Wainwright
2.Carpenter
3.Garcia
4.Lynn with his emergence as Starter this season I wouldn’t doubt seeing him in the Rotation next year.
5.Miller/Kelly/Rosenthal/Gast competition in Spring Training.
We should take into account that we will need a number of starting pitchers in the next few years. Westy’s and Lohse’s contracts are up this year, and Carp’s is up after next year (and he will almost certainly retire). Jenkins is probably a number of years away, and the Cards won’t re-sign both Westy and Lohse. So, we will need at least 2 new starters in two years (Lynn could be one), and perhaps 3. So, if not next year, Kelly has to remain a real possibility, along with Rosenthal.
If Carpenter doesn’t come back I could see Kelly getting a shot. However, I just have a hard time imagining they’re going to want 2 rookies (Shelby and Kelly) and one second year guy (Lynn) in the roation. I would think Rzep gets a shot before Kelly, and a free agent is probably more likely than either of those scenarios. It would be pretty cool to have a starting 5 that all graduated from the minors as Cardinals. Can’t imagine when was the last time we had that.
I think they will make every effort to re-sign Lohse.
Of the legit SP prospects, Kelly has pitched the best so far. I know some have questioned his secondary pitch quality, but he seems to be getting results. You probably have to throw Dickson into the mix too.
I’m not so sure that Miller is a MLB given in 2013 unless they decide to have him come out of the pen first. I would think by mid-July, we will have a more concrete idea how the prospects project in 2013.
Given the long standing desire for two LHRP, I don’t think we’ll ever see Rzep in the rotation. I’d also be surprised to see Kelly in the majors before Miller.
Just because of Miller’s reputation? Or do you have something more concrete?
All I am saying, is that if Miller continues to pitch as he has and Kelly continues to pitch as he has – I seriously doubt Miller goes up first. I’m not arguing who has the better upside – it’s Miller, but that isn’t what gets a promotion. And it could be Dickson instead of Kelly for that matter. Miller has plenty of time to prove worthy of 2013 – that’s why I point to mid-July as the next logical evlatuation point.
I think Kelly will debut near the middle of this season and win a spot over Shelby at the start of next season. Kelly appears to have taken the next step as starting pitcher. After the way he pitched at Double A last season, the Cardinals probably told him that if the struggles continued he would be shifted back into the relief role he held in college. They ignited a flame under him, and as successful as it has been I feel they’ll try to do the same with Miller next year by putting Kelly in the rotation from the start of the season over him.
How long would you sign Lohse for?
Not as many years as he will want.
Cards had a lot of money tied up in Westbrook and Lohse. I tend to believe they will keep only one of them, but losing both wouldn’t be a surprise.
Huh. I feel the exact opposite, re: Lohse.
The club was already burned once by giving Kyle a muti-year deal. Moreover, he’s making around $12M this year, right? I can’t see him taking a pay cut to stay — especially if he goes, say, 17-8 with an ERA around 3.00.
With all the talent in the minors, the club has ammo for a Gio Gonzalez/Mat Latos/Trevor Cahill type trade in the offseason, if Carp isn’t available for 2013.
Q: If the Cards exercise Westbrook’s option for 2013, but he declines to stay, what’s the free agent compensation, under the new CBA?
Thanks in advance for any answers. ;)
Idle thought: If one-third of the minor league starters reach their potential, and rookie Lance Lynn is a solid 2/3 type going forward, how good in *historical* terms is this farm system? ‘Cause Taveras & Wong look like All-Stars, and Adams and Jackson look like sturdy 2-3 WAR guys — maybe even a bit more in their primes.
(And then there’s also the good-upside teens who have yet to play this year, like… well they’re almost too numerous to mention, really.)
I disagree on being burned once. He has pitched well. His issue has been performance related, but rather a freak injury.
If Wainright returns to form, and with Garcia…I think they will be fine with rolling the dice on carp and 2 rookies/lynn.
I agree with the fact the organization now has the capability to pull off a big trade, or go after a big name free agent SP. I just have a gut feeling they will try to re-sign Lohse. I wouldn’t go over 3 years, though.
Last I checked, the free agent compensation system underwent a major overhaul with the new CBA. Instead of Type A and Type B free agents, now only the players with the top 125 salaries across MLB will bring compensation draft picks to the team that fails to sign them. (If this is wrong, someone please correct me, but this is how I understood it).
Maybe I should clarify, zuke.
I was in favor of the Lohse 4-year deal, though I did think it an overpay of perhaps $1.5-2M per year. He was fairly young, yet had a long history of good health back then, and seemed to work quite well with Dunc/LaR/Molina.
But now he’s 4 years older, and *does* have an injury in his past. I can’t see signing him to either a multi-year deal, or even a one-year deal if he wants a raise. The latter suggestion is moot anyway, I’m sure; no way a guy Kyle’s age, coming off a good year, takes a 1-year deal.
Somebody will pony up 2/25 or 3/35 at least, if he puts up the aforementioned W/L and ERA. For multiple reasons, it won’t and shouldn’t be the Redbirds.
If we offer him arb with an offer of around 12.5 for one year we get a comp pick!
I agree with that. I also tend to think #3 starters are overpaid a bit.
I think the difference now is that the cards can develop their own #3 starters. Lynn looks like he can handle the roll.
Do we get a pick, carioca, if Westbrook merely declines his $8.5M option (after the Cards attempt to exercise it, of course)?
Thanks.
I could be wrong, but it would seem, assuming either the Cards or Westbrook decline the option, we could still offer arbitration and were he to decline, we’d be due the comp pick. Of course, it begs the question, why we would decline the option and then offer arb. (answer: to get the comp pick rather than the veteran pitcher)
I thought the new rule was that we have to offer someone at least 12 mil in order to get the comp pick.
Cox drops down to 9th in the order since his slump. In his first AB he Doubled. Adams hit a Sac Fly. Kelly struggling with command 3 Walks in 3.0 IP giving up 2 ER. Rosenthal pitching OK 3.0 IP 2 ER 1 BB 4k. Both Wong and Taveras walked. So far after 3 Innings. Anthony Garcia went 2-3 for Quad Cities. Juan Castillo homered. Rahmatulla went 1-4 with an RBI Single. Hald had a Quality Start going 6.0 innings giving up 1 ER 0 BB 6 K. Quad Cities was beat 3-2. Ferrara was wild in 5 Innings walking 5 and K 2. Palm Beach is getting shutout so far.
The guys on the 40 man roster will go up first this year if needed or when rosters expand in sept. Teams in general do not place players on the 40 until they have to protect them (end of this year for the ones you are talking about), then, they will not see a call up until the following september (2013). I am not sure if Miller is even eligible this year for protection?
Zach, how do you know what the cardinals may have said to Kelly to motivate him? There’s a lot of speculation here as to what the cardinals say or do to motivate their players and it’s not by threatening them.
I wonder what is really going on with Carpenter, very hush, hush. There is no way they will replace Lynn with him. It may be that they move Westbrook to the pen eventually but he really has been having a fairly good season and better compared to last. Actually they all have.
Good job by Lilli.
Why are we giving Lilliquist credit? Westbrook and Lohse showed up at ST ready to pitch. I don’t know when Lilliquist’s fingerprints were placed on this rotation, but I doubt it was before this winter.
Just a guess but the decision to approach Lohse or Westbrook likely hinges on Carpenter’s situation. If Carp looks good for next year, my guess would be neither Lohse nor Westbrook will be sought. If Carp is questionable, we’d have to see how the farm prospects look in Aug/Sep to determine which pitcher (Lohse or Westbrook) best meets the Cards projected needs. If they need a multiple year pitcher Lohse makes the most sense. If, one year, well, the contract deal is already in place to extend Westbrook.
Springfield’s bullpen is dyno-mite. They blow up nightly.