Comments on: Oscar Taveras Was Probably Underrated

By: roarke

roarke — Wed, 09 May 2012 12:50:30 +0000

I’m late to this thread, but I just wanted to comment on the “violent” swing. I have never taken that phrase to necessarily be a negative thing. It can be – there are certainly some hacktastic guys out there that basically close their eyes and swing as hard as they can, but I would also classify Bryce Harper as having a violent swing. Vlad Guerrero and Mike Sweeney are two other guys that come to mind that I always considered to have violent swings. To me it is just a descriptor, but not necessarily pejorative. I just thought I would clarify since I used that description of OT’s swing in my post about Spring Training.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Wed, 09 May 2012 03:41:38 +0000

“The question isn’t whether Taveras is going to be one of MLB’s best 10 hitters in 3 or 4 years. The only question is where he’ll play defensively, and how well.”

Hahahaha, you don’t happen to post on another site under “casejud” do you?

By: Andrew

Andrew — Wed, 09 May 2012 03:36:27 +0000

What, is this post sarcastic? This proves his numbers are hugely inflated by his park, including IsoP. .305 vs. .363 is significant, along with the other ridiculous inflation in his numbers.

By: mattybobo

mattybobo — Tue, 08 May 2012 21:55:13 +0000

Right, I was just making sure that the whole “league BABIP tends to be around .300″ thing only applied to the majors.

I don’t even know what minor league BABIPs look like.

By: azruavatar

azruavatar — Tue, 08 May 2012 21:34:07 +0000

BABIP is not constant across leagues. A .440 BABIP is still extremely suspect though.

By: mattybobo

mattybobo — Tue, 08 May 2012 21:25:27 +0000

Anybody know if home runs can be classified as line drives?

By: mattybobo

mattybobo — Tue, 08 May 2012 21:24:35 +0000

I wonder how much of the BABIP difference is doubles turning into homers.

Also, people can’t treat a .440 BABIP in the Midwest League the same way they treat a .440 BABIP in the majors, right? It’s an apples to oranges (or maybe apples to pears, I dunno) comparison.
Unless I’m mistaken, BABIP doesn’t have a universal “average” that we should expect every league to adhere to. It even changes in the MLB (league BABIP is down to around .290 I think). So Oscar’s .440 last year league just didn’t mean what some people thought it meant.

By: Bob

Bob — Tue, 08 May 2012 16:22:34 +0000

Exactly, Bird!

Prospect-er Mike Newman of Fangraphs has already said that someone (scout? exec?) told him Taveras could be a 30-HR Centerfielder, but with “contact issues” keeping the average down.

The latter point is absurd, of course, and rooted in baseball mysticism (poor scouting) rather than reality (actual on-field performance, repeated over and over). But the former point, that Taveras has plus power and the distinct possibility of sticking in CF for awhile, is fairly revelatory.

Whether the power eventually takes a Dave Kingman-type shape, or more of the Bobby Abreu variety, I fully expect Taveras to have an isolated slg. at least 60-70% above MLB average during his prime 6-8 years…while also competing for batting titles.

Do that in center field, and you’re a first-ballot HOFer. ;)

By: T-Bird

T-Bird — Tue, 08 May 2012 15:39:09 +0000

I think it also must be acknowledged that some of the pop is untapped. Power is more often than not the last tool to develop. At 19, it is likely that Taveras will continue to develop more power. While his power production is probably not sustainable, more could be on the way. Last year, pundits were predicting 15 – 20 hr/yr ceilings. Such projections will go up after this season.

By: Bob

Bob — Tue, 08 May 2012 14:53:54 +0000

I hear you, Wade; but the TL ain’t exactly a hitter’s paradise this year. The league slash line is a so-so .251/.322/.394.

So Oscar’s isolated slugging is *easily* more than double his Texas peers (and better on the road than at home).

The pre-season perception that Taveras is a high-average, medium-power bat, who’s overly reliant on a bloated BABIP, was never aligned with reality in the first place. Oscar has had an ISO at least 50% above his league everywhere he’s played…and now, at the tender age of 19, the doubles are turning into taters.

Which was entirely predictable, given O.T.’s size, age, bat speed, swing plane, contact rate, etc., etc., etc.

The question isn’t whether Taveras is going to be one of MLB’s best 10 hitters in 3 or 4 years. The only question is where he’ll play defensively, and how well.