Yum, Sandwich Rounds
Posted on May 10th, 2012 by Jeff in 2005 MLB draft, 2006 Draft, 2007 Draft, 2008 MLB draft, 2010 MLB DraftSince 2000, the Cardinals have had 7 Compensation/Supplemental/Sandwich round picks after the first round. With 3 picks in the Sandwich round this year, let’s take a look at the previous sandwich rounds and the type of players the Cardinals decided to pursue. (Obvious caveat, all of these players were selected by a previous drafting and development team.)
2005
Mark A McCormick 6’2″ 195 10/15/1983 – College RHP
McCormick was the typical high upside starter with a fastball that hit 97 already. However, he wasn’t all raw coming out of Baylor as a 21 year old. As I reminded on the 2005 draft look back: “Smooth delivery brings mid-90s FB that can hit 97. Throws two hard breaking balls from a 3/4 delivery. Sinking change-up. Stuff is dominant enough to be top MLB starter.”
McCormick looked the part of the rare high-upside college pitcher.
Tyler D Herron 6’3″ 190 08/05/1986 – High School RHP
Herron was a high school pitcher and selecting one can be like picking a lottery ticket in the draft, but with a glowing draft writeup like this, why wouldn’t the Cardinals take a chance? “Medium, slender build. Square shoulders. Body similar to Brad Radke. Smooth delivery. Live two-seam FB that runs in on RHH. Maintains velocity, hits spots. CB has sharp, 3/4 break through zone. Deceptive change when down in zone. Throws three quality pitches.”
Notice two things in this writeup, first “live two-seam FB” as this draft was around the time of the Anthony Reyes 2 seam fastball controversy. The Cardinals were getting a HS pitcher in their system that already threw one. And secondly “maintains velocity”, which does not list what his velocity was, only that he kept it there, which implies it was not an impressive velocity.
2006
Christopher R Perez 6’4″ 225 07/01/1985 – College (Closer) RHP
The Cardinals picked a fast-moving college closer in Perez in the sandwich round in 2006. And the Cardinals were right, Perez made his major league debut in 2008. MLB’s draft report has this to say about Perez on draft day: ”A former starter, he has taken to the closer’s role after a shoulder injury necessitated the move, saving seven games as a sophomore and then emerging as one of the best short relievers in college ball. Perez primarily uses a low-to-mid 90s fastball with a lot of life.”
2007
Clayton G Mortensen 6’04″ 180 1985-04-10 – College RHP
Mortensen was a college senior when the Cardinals drafted him in 2007. He was considered the typical fast-moving high floor draftee. The Cardinals were right about the fast-moving part, he was close enough to the majors in 2009 to be one of three for Matt Holliday.
MLB has this to say: “While there are often college seniors who make very good pros, it’s rare for there to be one like Mortensen, a legitimate “prospect” on the rise in his senior season. He’s got three usable pitches and a body frame that appears able to handle added strength, which could make his fastball even better. He should be a very intriguing senior sign this summer.”
2008
Michael L Lynn 6’05″ 250 1987-05-12 – College RHP
The Cardinals took Michael “Lance” Lynn in the 2008 sandwich round, cries went up across Cardinal World about another high floor, low ceiling right handed starter in the sandwich round. However, the Cardinals were right again and Lynn was up in St. Louis by 2011.
MLB’s draft report was damning Lynn with faint praise from day one: “Lacking great pure stuff, Lynn is a level behind the elite college arms in this Draft class. But he makes the most out of his average offerings with excellent command, a knowledge of how to pitch and a real competitive streak on the mound. He’s done a good job of maintaining his weight this year and will have to continue to do so as a pro. He won’t wow you, but he’s the type who could be a solid innings-eater who presumably won’t take long to be big-league ready.”
“Lacking great pure stuff”, “average offerings”, “maintaining his weight” were all ugly phrases for Cardinals fans to see on draft day, but Lynn has improved since his draft day and has turned his faint praise into real praise.
2010
Seth Blair R / R 6′ 2″ 185 03/03/1989 – College RHP
Another high ceiling college right-hander for the Cardinals in the Sandwich round and the natives were getting restless. Blair was hurt and didn’t get started until 2011 and hasn’t gotten going in 2012 yet because of another injury.
“Blair opened up many eyes with his first start of the year, when he threw harder than he had previously and all of his stuff, while inconsistent, was electric. He dialed it back after that, but still showed glimpses of having three, maybe more, above-average to plus offerings. Command issues have led to high pitch counts, which in turn make some think he’s destined for a job as a reliever, though a team may at least give him a chance to show he can’t start with that full repertoire. The glimpses he’s shown could very well be enough to get him off the board on Day 1 of the Draft.”
“Glimpses” and “command issues” are the two buzz words here that scared fans. We have only seen glimpses of Blair so far with only 21 starts to his name in the minors, but his command issues are still an issue with 6.83 BB/9 so far.
Tyrell Jenkins R / R 6′ 4″ 192 07/20/1992 – High School RHP
Hallelujah! The Cardinals picked a high-upside pitcher in the sandwich round! Tyrell Jenkins had a football commitment to Baylor, which may have dropped him to the bottom of the sandwich round, but the Cardinals were able to sign him away from that. Jenkins has moved slowly, but as a high-school draftee, that is to be expected.
Here is MLB’s scouting report: “A three-sport standout with a football commitment to Baylor, Jenkins might be one of the top pure athletes in the Draft class. He’s still a little raw on the mound, though he commands the baseball better than you’d think considering how little he’s focused on the craft. He has a very high ceiling to go along with an above-average fastball, a breaking ball that’s solid, and even a feel for a changeup. The upside plus the athleticsm will likely get him selected by a team that thinks it can sign him away from heading to college.”
“Very High Ceiling” left the Cardinals draft watchers very short of breath indeed.
Seven out of seven times, the Cardinals selected a right handed pitcher in the sandwich round since 2000. I’m not going to go out on a limb and say that they will go three for three with right-handed pitchers in the sandwich round this year, but you can expect one of the three will be and RHP. There were 5 college pitchers selected and 2 high school pitchers. When the Cardinals had two selections in the sandwich round, they went with one high floor pitcher and one high ceiling pitcher and I think you will find that same risk/safe approach come draft day, especially with the limited draft allocation pool the Cardinals will have to work with. Two of the sandwich picks are probably going to be easier to sign players and one should be a high-upside risky and expensive player. And lastly, the sandwich round does not exist in a vacuum, a lot of what the Cardinals will do in the sandwich round depends on what they do with their first two picks in the first round and how much risk and money they will have already allocated.
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Nice write-up, and great point about the sandwich round not existing in a vacuum. Especially last year, the Cards showed they’re willing to overdraft to get specific players they don’t think will be there with their next selection.
No idea if Kantrovitz will go a different direction, but we have to think that Mo will have the final vote, and he must be pretty happy with the way the past 3 drafts have gone.
Another issue: the talent pool appears analogous to 2007, and the guys we’re getting in the sandwich round might be similar to crooked-number picks from the past couple of years.
McCormick was in the running to be selected in the top 10 of the draft in 2005, but teams backed away near to the draft and he tumbled, until the Cards selected him at around pick 40. He had a sore shoulder in 2004. He must have had some poor appearances during May 2005 and lost draft helium. We took a chance and lost. Luhnow exulted in landing flamethrower McCormick, but other teams were smarter.
I think it was a smart decision honestly. It’s very rare that you get a chance to draft that type of talent in that spot. You have to take a shot at those type of arms in that place if you get the opportunity.
Can’t judge the intelligence of a decision based on if a player worked out or not. You can judge the intelligence of the process that lead to the decision.
Would it still have been a bad decision if McCormick turned into a Number 1 starter?
Agreed. McCormick was derailed by injuries. I watched one of his CWS starts for Baylor. He was commanding a FB consistently in the mid to upper 90s, and inducing awkward swings with a power breaking ball. He dominated that game and could have been special but/for injuries.
Andrew, you can judge a decision if it turned out poorly for reasons that others foresaw. If other teams felt confident about McCormick, Boras might have looked for a high bonus and gotten it. In effect Boras admitted McCormick was questionable by not asking for an above slot bonus for him.
Drafting McCormick resembles drafting Bittle more recently. It takes a gamble on damaged goods and both gambles did not turn out well. Probably better to draft a physically sound pitcher with less stuff.
Did you watch the draft video. I will try to find the article about McCormick going from a Top 10 option to where he was drafted. Fact is his stuff was as good or better than anyone else in that draft. You don’t often get a chance to draft that type of guy. McCormick had infinitely better stuff than Bittle did.
I’d rather the Cardinals be a team that are willing to occassionally take a shot on superior talent.
Successful sandwich picks for Stl. Producing an MLB closer (Perez), decent reliever (Mortenson) and mid-rotation starter (Lynn) is a definite win. Jenkins, (and Lynn for that matter) could ultimately turn this group into a massive haul.
Are you not going to draft a guy with an arm like this?
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/player/mp_tpl_3_1.jsp?w=/2005/open/draft/prospects/mccormick_mark_a_350.wmv&curl=custom_context/events/draft/y2005/index.jsp&pid=gen_video&cid=mlb&v=2
BTW the link I have is the the scouting footage of him on MLB Draft tracker. It’s 7 minutes of his pitching, scouts view from behind the plate with a gun for every pitch.
I believe McCormick was one of the Boras guys too and he dropped partly due to signabilitity.
He was definately the correct choice in that spot despite the fact he didn’t work out.
Andrew, you “believe” McCormick dropped due to signability. McCormick signed with the Cards promptly for circa $800K, a slot bonus. Bonus demands did not explain McCormick’s free-fall in the month before the draft. This was not a Porcello situation. McCormick was a power pitcher who would have gone near the top of the draft if teams were more confident in his health. The Cards went for a bargain opportunity and it did not work out.
Reminds me of signing post-op Matt Clement for $1.5MM. He could not even make the team and ended up spending a summer at Memphis. Sometimes the reason there is a bargain price is because there is no bargain.
But when it does work out, it works out very well.
I guess it was a similar situation to the Red Sox last year drafting Anthony Ranudo at 39 after beginning the year as the number 2 prospect. Who knows how that turns out ultimately. If a team has the opportunity to land a Top 5 talent later in the draft they should do it everytime.
If I recall, The cards pretty much has a set rotation and Matt Clement was a high risk luxury gamble to push somebody.
I think it would have been a poor decision if they banked on him being a 1-3 starter, which they were not doing.
It was a move they did similar to Chirs Carpenter, and that one seemed to work out all right.
McCormick dropped because of health concerns with his shoulder. The Cards took a flyer and it didn’t pay off. Tyler Herron was released due to detrimental conduct. Josh Wilson was also a high pick that year, but tore up his shoulder too. Not a lucky year for drafting pitchers for us.
i did an article on the state of the cards and also their upcoming series with the braves on my site so come by and check i tout! http://baseballpitboss.com/2012/05/atlanta-braves-look-to-get-back-on-track-against-st-louis-cardinals/
It’s worth remembering that a 40% hit rate on guys reaching the majors who were drafted in the #31-50 slots is actually reasonably good, and that’s without the possibility that Blair or Jenkins might make it (I’d consider it better than 50/50 that at least one of them will). Another one of those little looks back that I like to take, at drafts from 1996 to 2005 where we have reasonably (although not absolutely) complete views of who would eventually reach the Show:
2005 draft: 10/20 made it, total WAR so far = 8.6 (biggest success: Clay Buchholz — obviously this WAR number will increase as these guys’ careers lengthen)
2004 draft: 10/20, 33.7 WAR (Yovani Gallardo)
2003 draft: 13/20. 17.4 WAR (Adam Jones)
2002 draft: 8/20, 26.2 WAR (Joey Votto)
2001 draft: 11/20, 39.7 WAR (David Wright)
2000 draft: 12/20, 16.3 WAR (Kelly Johnson)
1999 draft: 9/20, 34.1 WAR (Brian Roberts)
1998 draft: 12/20, 41.8 WAR (Aaron Rowand; does not include Mark Prior, drafted with the 13th sandwich pick but did not sign)
1997 draft: 9/20, -2.9 WAR (ecchhh! Jim Parque was the biggest “success”)
1996 draft: 11/20, 65.3 WAR (Jimmy Rollins)
So on average, among choices 31 to 50 (approximately the supplemental round and usually extending a bit into the second round; Jenkins was a #50 pick), 52% of the draftees are likely to reach the majors, and somewhere from 10% to 20% will have significant major-league careers. The Cardinals’ success rate will be right at average when (not if) either Jenkins or Blair arrive, and Lynn and Perez can probably be said to be on trajectories for significant careers — knock on wood. SSS, but the team’s use of the sandwich rounds strikes me as entirely normal, and the flameouts of McCormick and Herron are consistent with the normal attrition that prospects undergo en route to the Show. Sad, yes; unusual, hardly.
Does anyone agree that even though we have Patch Adams and O.T. in the system we have a huge lack of power hitters in the system? Out of our first 5 picks (2 first round and 3 sandwich), I would be more that happy using 4 or 5 of those to go after high upside power hitting types. The more I read about this Stryker (spelling ?) kid, the more I want him! 1 or 2 “low floor” guys through the 2nd is fine, but we have enough guys in the system to be “fillers”.
“Fillers” don’t win championships, stars do!
I agree there is a severe lack of power in our system. Scruggs had it last year but hasn’t adjusted to AA pitching yet. Jrod’s power has gone down this year as he advanced to Palm Beach. Longmire has the potential but I have no faith in him as his swing hasn’t changed in the entire time he’s been in the system despite needing it.
I wouldn’t be against picking a Gallo or Roache at 23 and a Nick or Trey Williams at 36.
I disagree completly.
For one, All systems lack power. The cards actually have more power compared to many systems.
I think its a waste to focus on high upside only. Plus, there are not 4 or 5 of those guys available as sandwich picks.
The cards have shown a knack recently for developing older college players…And the their most recent power prospects (adams and craig). Might as well focus on what they seem to do best.
And 2011 showed that “fillers” like David Freese, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, and Allan craig do win championships.
Interestingly, the mock that BA posted today has Stryker Trahan sliding past both of the Card’s first-round picks to the Yankees at #30. If he requires the development time and lacks the defensive profile as a catcher that most reports indicate, I don’t see the long term commitment to Molina being a factor. The fact that the Cards don’t play in a DH-league might.
Counterpoint- Now that the MLB is pretty much full for the forseeable future it allows us the option to draft upside talent that can be used to fill holes a long way down the road or trade it for holes that come up in the near future.
Fast moving college players will be blocked and multiple positions in STL.
A fast moving catcher makes no sense with Molina around for 4 or 5 more years. Stryer Trahan would make sense as we could bring him already slowly.
Matt Holliday isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. We we want a polished left fielder?
David Freese is a WS hero and local celeb. He also is cost controlled for a few more years and likely to resign. With Zach Cox behind him already. Do we want to draft Shaffer or Piscotty only to be blocked?
Do we draft a college 2nd baseman like Nolan Fontana with Wong manning the position for the next 6 or7 years?
Essentially there aren’t many major holes that need to be filled in the next 2 or 3 years. Why draft a guy that will ultimately be trade bait when you can draft someone to bring along more slowly.
You act as if a drafting a capable major league player is a bad thing.
Zack Cox and Wong have yet to play a major league game. I think its a bit too early to consider their positions blocked long term.
Cox is the one that is blocked. Wong is the one that will be blocking others at 2nd. It simply makes no sense to draft someone at that point. Your right good players are good players, but those with upside are also good players at this point.
Zuke you have to agree that drafting the most college ready catcher this year wouldn’t make sense. Our system is full enough that we can take a risk on guys that take longer to develop and may bust out.
I disagree. We have no idea what this team needs in 3 years.
And if you think a college catcher is really that good, go ahead and take him. Becasue if you do develop him, you can always flip him for something you do need.
Colby Ramsum never won a world series in st. louis, but he was a huge component to the cards winning it last year.
That’s the point there isn’t that much seperation between players this year. College guys with less talent will come off the board quicker in order to make the budget work for the draft. That givesyou a chance to take guys who have more talent but have a higher chance of failing.
The Cardinals will go by there draft board but I believe the draft board will be informed by positional need and depth at the position in the organization. That includes the MLB level. All I’m saying is that you may want to take a chance on a superior talent rather than a “solid” player with limited ceiling when that solid player is blocked at the MLB level.
Why are you assuming they are less talanted? High ceiling doesn’t necesarrily represent talent, but rather growth room.
All I am saying is you don’t pass on a guy you think is best because you have a player at the major league level.
We aren’t talking about passing on a guy who we think is best. We are talking about passing on a safe player i.e. already maximized his talent without much room to grow if they are blocked at the MLB level. Usually the best talent is at the HS level. Those college players who are as talented as the HS guys are usually picked long before the Cardinals get to choose.
I disagree.
There are still plenty of Jon Jay, lance Lynns and wongs in the range the cards pick. The problem is, people don’t see the value in #3 starters and cotact hiters on draft day. In fact, people think that even drafting a Jon Jay or Lance Lynn is a failure.
Balance is actually the best approach. This year the cards do have the luxury of more picks, but I would not put it all on high risk high schoolers.
Also, the point i keep making is that the cards also have been one of the best teams at identifing, drafting and developing that college player. Its a strength of the system. I think they should also feed that strength.
Your right a balance is the best way. The Cardinals can’t and wont draft just HS players. Financially it’s not possible there have to be some easy signs in order for them to try to go overslot with some.
Yep … remember when CF was “blocked” and then became unblocked and we won a WS. Now we’re trying to fit OT in CF. No one is ever blocked.
I’m with Andrew on this one. We’ll need someone to take over for Yadi in 5+ years and drafting a high-end prospect like Trahan would be perfect.
The one position that is not blocked, nor will it be any time soon, is shortstop. That is where our 1st overall pick should go to. Correa would be perfect, but he’s zoomed up the draft boards and won’t likely be there for us. If another elite type SS is available when we pick, that has to be our choice. If Stryker isn’t there for our second pick then C Josh Elander would be a suitable choice for there.
Fortunately for us there are positions blocked for the next 5+ years. LF – Holliday, CF – Jay, RF – Taveras, 3B – Freese, 1B – Adams or Craig, C – Molina, 2B – Wong or Cox, SP – Garcia, Lynn, Wainwright, Miller, Martinez, Rosenthal, Kelly, Gast, Jenkins; RP – Motte, Sanchez, Salas, Swagerty, Boggs, Rzepchynski, Reifer, Cleto……
Ryan Jackson may become a good SS, but not an elite defender like the “Oz” or a run producer like Renteria.
I think your overvaluing Elander quite a bit. I haven’t read anything that says he wouldn’t be there at 36 if we wanted him there. I don’t see any elite SS prospects other than Correa. Marrero would be a safe prospect but I don’t see much more upside than Jackson. Cecchini the same way.
Love Jay, but to say that he’s blocking center field for the next five years is quite a stretch. If there aren’t any stud shortstops on the board, I doubt the current depth chart factors into the decision-making. If the Cardinals see a player they like at a position that is nicely set, they’ll go after them knowing that a logjam of great players is a good thing. Players can switch positions or be traded to fill needs. Many elite shortstops don’t come out of the draft anyhow, so I’d pay more mind to how the Cardinals navigate the new rules regarding international free agents.
this time last year there would have been a different name in that CF spot … strange.
So the guy who has in the past been a vocal advocate for “best available player” is now worried about who might be blocking whom?
And I’m mainly a BPA guy in lower rounds when people have fallen due to signability.
Is it about time for some more player profiles of players of interest during the draft?
fine story, thanks..
I’m really surprised by all this discussion about positions and drafting. The team should take the player that it thinks will be the best MLB player that can fit in its budget–which should be the player they have rated highest on their board. You never know what is going to happen. You don’t want to force a position. The MLB team is good right now, just about 20% into this season. However, you have no idea what will happen in the future. Holliday could break his wrist on an inside pitch. Jay could lose contact ability. Beltran could blow his knee. Craig’s knee could deteriorate. Freese could get hurt or decide he is tired of playing in his home town. Yadi’s knees could give out. Any pitcher can blow out an elbow or shoulder. Adams, Miller, Wong, Taveras, Martinez and crew are not guaranteed at all. Look at all the great prospects that don’t make it. Plus, how many drafted players have to move off their defensive positions? or don’t develop that third pitch enough to start?
The front office has to trust their evaluations and pick the player that scores highest within those metrics. They seem to have been doing well the last couple years, so hopefully that will continue.
All of this discussion about positions and the players being blocked is nice here, but I hope that the Cardinals would never do it again (if that is what led to Kozma). I learn a lot of things from people on this site, and that is why I spend more time there than VEB. However, this time it seems like a lot of smart people on the site are overcomplicating the issue.
I think the positional discussion is only in relation to us taking a fast riser quick to the MLB player. The discussion is that because we are so filled in our system and at the MLBlevel that allows us the luxury of drafting guys that will take awhile to develop. It simply doesn’t make much sense to draft a catcher as a 1st round pick who will make it to the MLB by 2014 because he will be blocked ultimately. It also makes little sense to draft a MLB ready 2nd baseman after investing 1.2 mil on Wong just last year. My main point is that if your going to spend 2 million dollars not only does it need to be on the best guy but on a guy that we won’t have to trade away because we have Holliday or Molina in from of them.
As a pitcher i usually want the best available pitcher drafted as we need more and they blow up more. If we can get someone like Hunter Virant at 23 I would be happy.
FWIW, Jim Callis’ first mock at BA has the Cards taking Richie Shaffer (Clemson 3B) at 19 and Stephen Piscotty (Stanford 3B/OF) at 23.
Over at minorleagueball.com, Matt Garrioch gives Piscotty a floor of 40 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and a ceiling of 60. He gives Shaffer a slightly higher floor — 45 — and the same ceiling.
I think 40 would be a replacement-type player, and 60 would be an above-average MLB regular.
Callis’s Mock is horrible for so many reasons. Including the fact that if this is true in the last 5 year’s we drafted 4 college thirdbasemen, 3 with a good hit tool and questionable power. Add to the fact that we already have Zach Cox blocked by Freese why would we draft 2 fast moving 3rd basemen to get clogged in the system.
Also Shaffer won’t fall to us. Oakland won’t draft a HS pitcher. It’s just a bad mock outside of the Top 5 picks.
Maybe if we keep drafting college 3B we’ll eventually either get it right or get lucky! :)
Yea because we need to get rid of Freese ASAP. Obviously if you have an All-Star who is signed for 5 days you don’t want to draft a guy that will be in the Bigs in a year that plays the same position unless it’s pitcher.