A three for four night in the system with some impressive pitching performances. Oscar Taveras goes boom again.
- Adron Chambers went 3-for-4. After a slow start, Chambers had drug his average up over .300 and is reaching base at a .380 clip. With Shane Robinson‘s admirable performance in the majors to start the season, it seems unlikely that Chambers will see the big leagues prior to September barring the unforeseen.
- Pete Kozma was 2-for-4.
- Zach Cox was 0-for-4 with 3 strikeouts.
- Brandon Dickson pitched 7 innings allowing 4 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks. He struck out 2. Dickson kept the ball on the ground with 14 of 17 outs on groundballs. It was an efficient outing for him as well with just 78 pitches when he was replaced.
- Nick Greenwood took over in the 8th and pitched a scoreless frame. When he returned for the 9th, he allowed 4 runs (3 earned). On the night, he allowed 3 hits and struck out 1.
- Kolten Wong was 1-for-5.
- Oscar Taveras was 2-for-3 with a homerun and a walk. Taveras has just 18 strikeouts in 126 ABs. He’s walked 8 times this season — 2 fewer than the number of homeruns he’s hit.
- Nick Derba was 2-for-2.
- Tyler Lyons was stellar for the S-Cards striking out 7 in 7 innings. He walked 1 and allowed 2 runs on 3 hits.
- Eric Fornataro worked another scoreless inning (his 6th scoreless outing in a row) walking 1 batter. That was Fornataro’s first walk this season after 18 innings. The conversion to relief has been good to him thus far.
- Keith Butler struck out 2 in a perfect 9th for his 5th save.
- Chris Edmondson was hitless in his 4 plate appearances but walked twice.
- Alan Ahmady was 3-for-4.
- Kevin Siegrist took a no hitter into the 7th before being pulled after allowing a hit. He walked 2 and struck out 5.
- Iden Nazario struck out 3 in 2 innings.
- Dean Kiekhefer struck out 1 in a perfect 9th for his third save.
- Nick Martini was 1-for-4 with a walk.
- Anthony Garcia was 1-for-3 with a walk.
- Colin Walsh was 2-for-2 with a walk.
- Luis Mateo was 2-for-4 with a pair of doubles.
- Roberto Reyes was 3-for-4.
- Hector Hernandez pitched deep into the game allowing just 4 hits and 3 walks for 2 runs. After 7.1 innings, he struck out 2.
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Anyone have any idea how far taveras’ homer traveled? The write up for the game made it sound like it was quite the blast.
I watched the game on milb.tv..it wasn’t hit all that far but got out in a hurry
At the game not terribly far but I was impressed that it was off a lhp
So the question has to be asked, is Oscar Taveras a better prospect than Shelby Miller?
I still say no. Miller still have #1 SP talent which is the equivalent from a position player would be a star SS, C or CF…premium positions. OT profiles as a RF…though a very very very good RF I’m not sure at this point I could give him the nod over Miller. In the grand scheme of things I see Miller a Top 5-7 overall MLB prospect and by years end OT will be in the Top 20 and maybe Top 15…so its close.
With the graduation of the Big 3 (Harper, Trout, and Moore), I’ve got Taveras as a top ten prospect.
He could end up there by years end but still think Top 15-20 is more realistic. Part of that depends on who else will graduate as prospects past the 3 your named.
See below. Number one pitchers have been on a par with the best of:
First basemen.
Second basemen.
Left fielders.
And third basemen.
No shortstops. No backstops. And no centerfielders. Over the past 3+ seasons, cumulatively.
Get on the Taveras bandwagon, my friend. (I mean, unless J.C. stands for Jim Callis, in which case you are quite unwelcome.)
Greatness is greatness, regardless of defensive position.
…and I’d say yes. Taveras is the best hitting prospect in the minors right now, IMO. His power has developed. His contact wasn’t slowed one bit by a 2 league jump. He isn’t even 20 years old yet.
Shelby Miller is a fine pitcher and a top prospect, just not the top prospect in the Cards organization. But, it’s a great debate.
I tend to agree yes.
Not sure OT is the best hitting prospect in the minors. I would guess that no less than 5-8 hitters would beat out OT. But I think its arguable he is the hitting prospect that has improved his prospect stock the most since the year began.
I agree Taveras is the best prospect overall has the best tools. His defense is underrated has a very strong arm that will fill in nicely at RF in the future. Here some scouting about his swing. “He has a leg kick he uses to time the pitcher’s release. When he’s late in getting it down, he’s often late on the pitch. He loads his elbow like a pitcher loads up before uncoiling, with the hands and hips turning together on a firm front leg.” That is from http://www.baseball-intellect.com/scouting-oscar-taveras/
Here’s a nice picture of his swing. http://www.baseball-intellect.com/WordPress/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/oscar-taveras.gif
I really don’t understand why he couldn’t conceivably play center field in the major leagues for the first four or five seasons of a hypothetical major league career.
If he’s hitting .320 and slugging around .450 to .520 every season then it could more than make up for any defensive deficiency.
Might as well make him play himself off of the position.
Name those 5-8. Because I can’t think of any better hitting prospects in the minors right now. Maybe Myers, but I don’t even agree with that. You can make an argument for Machado or Profar as better overall prospects, but neither have a better hitting profile than Taveras.
That is where we are not talking the same language. Hitting or better stated positional player prospects have more than just hitting ability to consider and if you are looking only at stats then your definitely not evaluating prospects correctly. Positional value and D are 2 other key elements. So if we kept it simple and said hitting, positional value and D are the 3 main criteria we look at then here are the guys I would today rank ahead of OT…though OT is gaining fast on this group. Keep in mind I assume Harper, Trout and Montero graduate as they are the obvious ones.
Profar and Machado – SS’s that have the package of hitting and D are rare…these 2 have the ‘IT’ factor
Miguel Sano – To me probably the best power hitter in the minors with Harper graduating
Will Myers – I see a very special bat as he continues to grow as a prospect
Other guys that are right there with OT and I could see arguments either way on who is better: Xander Bogaerts (3B), Anthony Rendon (3B – If only he could stay healthy he would be considered with Profar and Machado as the best positional prospect in the game…injuries definitely knock him down a notch), Travis D’Arnaud (C – position value puts him high on the list), Bubba Starling (CF – Legit 5 tools which is rare…and at a premium position), Nolan Arenado (3B – Solid hit tool with power) and Mason Williams (OF – If you don’t know this kids name you better start getting to know it)
I’m sure there are a few others that you can argue for or against but this is a pretty good list. Out of the “others” list Starling, Lindor and Arenado are ahead of OT for me and Rendon would have definitely been there if it weren’t for his injury.
Obviously when you talk prospects you can debate all day long. But at the end of the day I don’t think you can make an argument that OT is the clearly the best positional prospect in the game right now.
Maybe Arenado, but I don’t see how you can give the nod to Sano, Starling, Lindor, who are very far away. Oscar is nearly big-league ready and I expect him in the bigs in 2013 if not making the opening day roster. There is an extreme amount of value in that. Those three “could” end up being better than Oscar one day, but right now give me the prospect who combines high ceiling with an increasing likelihood that he will reach it. I mean, heck, Starling is still in extended spring training.
We will agree to disagree then. OT is near big league ready? After 5 weeks in AA? We obviously have a totally different view on what is near big league ready as well as how we evaluate prospects…which is fine.
I couldn’t disagree more with you.
There are some fine fielding SS’s who appear to have excellent prospects to be above average hitters as well. Anybody can establish their own criteria for valuation. None of the players you mention have the hitting capacity that OT does. Not even close.
It’s fair to give additional value to a skill position. But any attempt to equate their hitting prowess is futile.
Thats your take and thats fine. But I will take an all-star SS before I take a all-star RF. Like I said there is a big difference in debating the best hitters in the minors versus the best position player prospects in the minors.
Not sure I understand. How is an all-star at one position (assuming identical WAR values) ever any more valuable than an all-star at some other position?
Seems a logical impasse to me. Isn’t a 6-WAR catcher exactly equal to a 6-WAR first baseman, who in turn is exactly equal to a 6-WAR corner outfielder?
I don’t mean to be obtuse, but it seems like it’s axiomatic that these are all precisely as valuable as one another.
You appear, J.C., to be positing otherwise. Please elaborate on how an all-star at one position can ever be more valuable than an all-star at another.
Thanks.
I am posting otherwise. You are correct…a 6 WAR player is a 6 WAR player no matter what position that player plays. But where I am coming from is positional value is a very important thing to consider when evaluating one player over enough. SS and C are probably the 2 hardest position players to find solid sustainable players to build your team around. CF is the next. Ace type SP’s are equal to SS and C. So what I am saying is a SS (for arguments sake lets say Tulo) is more valuable that a Corner OF (say Holliday) even if they have the same WAR because of the positional value. Same thing goes for ace type pitchers vs a #2/#3 SP or Closer. If their WAR in a given year are the same I still am building my team around the ace and not the #2/#3 or Closer. But you are still correct…on the surface a 6 WAR player is a 6 WAR player. But deeper analysis says I am taking the positional value if all else is equal.
You are correct.
…and, Bubba Starling, who has yet to take a professional at bat, doesn’t merit being in the discussion.
Thats a pretty weak argument. When Strasburg and Harper were drafted they immediately were a Top 5 or better prospect in baseball without taking 1 AB or throwing 1 pitch. And no…I’m not saying Starling is Harper…just showing how your argument has minimal to no merit.
Ah, but since Bubba isn’t Bryce, it’s not that weak an argument, is it?
I get that scouts question whether Taveras will stick in CF, but, that seems germane to the discussion of Taveras’ prospect ranking. Since the Cardinals are content with his defensive skills in center, that would argue favorably, ranking wise, given its premium position.
LOL – I think we are done here…its a weak argument period. I got my point across just fine. Moving along now…
I think you did a fine job arguing, and you’re welcome to your own opinion of how you did. Like I said, I disagree.
Wil Myers and OT are pretty much interchangeable as the Texas League best hitter. Myers is down 5 points in BA, up 20 points in OPS and has one more HR. However, OT is 1.5 years younger, so I think you have to give the nod to OT on that basis. I think Myers might be better defensively – he used to be a catcher, so I’m assuming he has the stronger arm. Any club would be happy with either one of them.
If I’m not mistaken, Myers is a player that Andrew felt we should have had – so props to Andrew on that one. Can you imagine the Cards having both these guys? Then again, Andrew missed on Wong. Hey, .500 ain’t bad! :)
Guess that’s in the eye of the beholder. I’d put them 1-A and 1-B at this point, but with C. Martinez, Jenkins, Wong and Adams behind them – WOW! Cards system is truly blessed right now. Any of those six guys would have been our #1 prospect in the years between Drew/Ankiel and Rasmus.
When will it be time to worry about Zach Cox? I know he’s a “slow starter,” but we’re halfway through May and neither his hitting or fielding seem up to level yet.
It won’t be time to worry this whole year. He’s about the 20th or so youngest player in the PCL. He’s in only his second full year of pro ball and was pushed to AAA when MCarp made the ML roster. Yes, he hasn’t played well, but he also has a .250 BABIP, and that’s in 120 PAs, a tiny sample. There’s no reason to be impatient.
OT – 1st in BA and RBI, 3rd in OPS, 4th in HR in Texas League. 2 HR from leading Triple Crown Categories. Not too shabby.
I keep waiting for Zach Cox to do something. Another 0 for 4 night, 3 Ks and his 9th error. I never thought he would be this bad. But I have to be happy about the rest of our minors. We are in an enviable position. Loaded in the Majors and minors. Great time to be a Cardinal fan.
It’s been a disappointing season for Cox so far offensively and defensively he has shown flashes of heating up but has been inconsistent all season so far. I hope he heats up that will make his value go up and he will be valuable trade bait at the deadline.
If the season ended today Taveras would definitely have passed Miller as the Cardinals top prospect. His power spike this year has the national press taking notice.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/05/02/cardinals-prospect-oscar-taveras-is-crushing-double-a-pitching-at-age-19/
Goold has a quick update on Charlie tilson and other est prospects at the bottom of his maness profile. Tilson is hitting .394 avg/.500 obp at est. sounds like he should skip Johnson city and go right to Batavia. Cj McElroy had a sprained ankle but has recovered and is playing well. Lance Jeffries had a wrist injury and is out till July, sadly. You should read the whole maness profile.
Taveras homerun was a clutch homerun in the 8th inning..Lyons just gave up a 2 run homerun and Taveras answered back with one of his own for the Cardinals to take the lead..watching him hit, he just looks like a major league hitter right now..the ball just jumps off his bat
I was really impressed with Lyons last night..located all his pitches and was super fast to the plate..Jake Westbrook fast even
Thanks for the heads-up on the Maness (and Tilson) stuff at the P-D, Tom!
As for Taveras, does anyone know of any other teenager (on Opening Day) who posted an isolated power of .300+ above A-ball? I can’t find anyone in the past half century. (Willie Mays back in 1951 was the only postwar teen I could find.)
By the way, Taveras also swiped a base yesterday. :)
How about Colin Walsh? having a breakout season i’d say..an ops of 1.035, 20 extra base hits in 34 games and 24 walks to 22 strikeouts
If you follow Walsh here is a nice little article about his breakout year so far. http://baseballinstinct.com/tag/st-louis-cardinals/
cool cool..thanks for sharing
To your point, JC, about Taveras’ perhaps not being a truly top-level prospect since he’s neither a C, SS, or CF: Even if Oscar isn’t in fact a centerfielder (yet to be determined, for me), according to Fangraphs, from 2009-present, the top 10 position players in baseball, with a cumulative WAR ranging from 22 to 30, are distributed as follows.
4 first basemen
3 second basemen
2 left fielders
1 third baseman
That’s Pujols, Votto, M. Cabrera, A. Gonzalez, Pedroia, Kinsler, Utley, Braun, Holliday, and Longoria. There’s your top 10.
I didn’t say he wasnt truly a top-level prospect because he wasn’t playing a premium positions…I stated that premium positions are harder to find and that positional value is one key factor in prospects. Because prospects are never a sure thing you have to evaluate them a bit differently than established MLB players. Regardless you see teams all the time trying to find that next long term SS or C or CF or ace type pitcher because they are harder to find truly legit guys at those positions in comparison to others. That was the whole point I was making.
Just purchased tix for a road trip to see Memphis, Springfield and the QC in mid-August. At this point I’m hoping there won’t be any significant callups between now and then unless it’s Carlos Martinez to Springfield, but I’m really hoping to see Rosenthal that day. Still, if he’s there, maybe I can get something signed. Also hoping some of our high draftees will make QC off the bat. Wish me luck!
I think Taveras is at a point where you don’t rank someone above him on projection alone. I know guys like Starling and Rendon have enormous ceilings, but with no experience in a the minor leagues they’re just 100% projection. Anyone shy of a Bryce Harper type prospect needs at least some success in the minors before I’d rank them alongside a guy like OT.
I could see the arguments for Myers, Profar, Machado, Lindor, Sano and Arenado. For what its worth I would place Taveras ahead of Lindor and Arenado, behind Profar and Machado, and right alongside Sano and Myers, for different reasons. I think Myers is more polished than OT, with a bit less upside and Sano is less polished with maybe a bit more upside.
Understand your take on this and everyone has different views on prospects. I can respect everyones view on prospects as long as they have consistent sound arguments on why this one over that one. Its when someone random says XYZ prospect is better than ABC prospect but has absolutely no reasoning or arguments behind the statement. Thanks for sharing your point of view.
How about converted catcher Stock pitching 3 scoreless innings with 5K. He is starting to pitch well good to see I hear he is throwing in the mid 90s now.
Is he strictly a relief pitcher or are they stretching him out to be a starter? Thanks
Sorry, Doble. I see now you aren’t Jim Callis. I checked your link, herein.
“A couple guys get on.” That’s you, as a self-described *reluctant* Redbird fan. That’s what you remember about the ’05 Astros game? Are you really so indifferent to Eckstein & Edmonds, that you cannot bring yourself to honor that rally by mentioning who reached base, and how?
C’mon, man. Are you, or are you not a REAL Saint Louis Cardinal fan? Because it sounds an awful lot like you’re an Andy Benes fan who stumbled across the best team in the history of the National League.
Since when is having a different opinion on prospect valuation grounds for digging dirt and questioning motives? Also, I wish Cardinal fans would ease up on the proclamations of their club’s greatness as an argumentative tool. It can come across a bit pompous and it’d be nice if it stopped.
Seems like it ought to be permissible drama on a Future Redbirds site.
Bob – First off I am not Doble…I am the other contributor to our site. I focus mainly on prospects and the draft and Doble focuses mostly on the big league club. But at the end of the day everyone has their view on players, baseball, organizations, etc. We pair up fairly well mainly because we don’t always agree on each others view which makes for some pretty interesting discussions. Regardless your post really provides no value…don’t come visit our site if you don’t enjoy the posts or the contributors…its that simple.