Draft Risers and Fallers (College Edition)
Posted on May 16th, 2012 by Purple_Haze in 2012 MLB Draft, tags: Andrew Heaney, Chris Stratton, Deven Marrero, Patrick WisdomWith the College World Series just a month away and the draft before even that, draft boards are starting to solidify, at least in the college ranks. College prospects don’t fluctuate as rapidly as high school prospects in the estimation of scouts but there are still definite emerging trends this year among collegiate players in the Cardinals’ range. Here are a few such players:
Rising
Chris Stratton RHP – Mississippi State
The dominant conference in college baseball is the SEC, Chris Stratton is neck and neck with potential #1 overall pick Kevin Gausman for the SEC strikeout title (Gausman has 112 to Stratton’s 107). Coming off of two seasons of identical mediocrity, Stratton’s emergence this season from reliever to Friday starter has been one of the better stories in college ball. This change has been generally credited to the development of his slider, a wipe out pitch that he can throw for strikes. He is also lauded for his general shift in demeanor, becoming a fierce competitor on the mound. His fastball works in the low 90s and he’s got a fairly well-developed change also. There is some natural skepticism over his small sample size of success, having worked from the bullpen for the first month of the season, but Chris has caught up to the rest of the conference in a hurry and there’s no denying the quality of his competition. He’s projected to be a first round pick at this point, somewhere around the vicinity of the Cards’ first selection and he would not be a reach at all at 19 or 23.
Andrew Heaney LHP – Oklahoma State University
Another rather intriguing option for the Cardinals in the first round is lefty Andrew Heaney, who has also greatly improved his stock with his dominance in the Big 12. He is the owner of an astonishing 120-19 K/BB ratio and does it all with a screwball as his main weapon. He throws the screwball a lot, especially to righties, working off of a 89-91 fastball. He’s also got a less advanced change.
Andrew is a fairly thin guy without much in the way of projection but has a good feel for pitching with strong command, unafraid of attacking hitters inside. Mechanically, he could use some help as there is some funkiness in his stride. He seems to stop short and sacrifices leverage from his lower half. He does, however, repeat his motion well and hides his delivery effectively. Heaney is considered the best college lefty in the draft but his upside is mid-rotation-ish. His performance definitely puts him in the first round range, perhaps even before the Cardinals can pick. However, he might need more development time than desired from a mid-rotation first rounder.
Fallers
Deven Marrero SS – Arizona State
It’s hard to say how much, if any, Deven Marrero has actually fallen on draft boards for his forgettable hitting performance this season. He’s cut down on the strikeouts a touch this year (he has had a reputation for being a bit of a hacker) but his .261/.320/.404 line is still his worst yet in his college career. The guy makes his name on defense. He’s not a burner on the basepaths but has excellent range and quick reactions, with a plus arm to back it up. Naturally, for a true shortstop, there are plenty of apologists for light-hitting. They can’t completely apologize for his perceived lack of effort this season but the crop for college middle infielders is frankly terrible this year, and Marrero is still placed firmly at the top. Scarcity will probably make him go before the Cards’ turn comes up, perhaps as soon as #8 to Pittsburgh.
Patrick Wisdom 3B – St. Mary’s
Coming off a strong 2011 season, Patrick Wisdom had a fair amount of buzz for his power and his ability to stick at third. His potential issues were in his pitch recognition/approach. He has fallen prey to these concerns so far in 2012, hitting only .244/.375/.424. On the one hand, that average, along with his strikeout issues, make it easy to be skeptical of his ability to make contact with major league pitches. On the other hand, he is taking more walks than he has in the past. Wisdom is probably not a first rounder right now but if we snapped him up in a supplemental round I think we could see good value. He’s a big guy with plenty of pop to his pull side and surprising agility. It amounts to a good deal of upside if he puts it all together.
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Personally, I wouldn’t touch Marrero with a 10 foot pole. He is below average in all areas except range and arm strength. That’s not enough or me to spend a first round pick on him. Not sure I would spend one of our top supp. picks on him either, considering the “effort” concerns
I have to agree. I want no part of him until maybe the supplemental first round. He’s gotten progressively worse with the bats the last three years in college and then when they switched bats he was virtually useless.
The screwball is not a weapon that bodes well for durability. Pitching is unnatural as it is, relying on a screwball is an injury waiting to happen. I can’t imagine Heaney will be taken before the tail end of the first round, no matter how effective he’s been.
Don’t know if this has been brought up yet, but Keith Law has done a Mock Draft as an Insider article on ESPN’s site. Here’s the Card’s picks and a link to the full Mock draft.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/2012/story/_/id/7929824/mark-appel-goes-no-1-houston-astros-first-mock-draft-mlb
19. St. Louis Cardinals
Stryker Trahan, C, Acadiana H.S. (Lafayette, La.)
This is the compensation pick the Cardinals got from the Angels for Albert Pujols. St. Louis is linked to lots of bats, including Cecchini if he’s here, Davis, Russell and Stanford’s Stephen Piscotty. Haven’t heard Gallo here, but he’d make a lot of sense if they believe he’ll hit. Sims is one pitching possibility.
23. St. Louis Cardinals
Stephen Piscotty, 3B, Stanford
Stanford tends to stress an extremely mechanical approach to hitting that often robs hitters of power and flexibility, but it hasn’t hindered Piscotty as much as previous Cardinal prospects. As noted earlier, the Cardinals are looking for bats.
Marrero sounds too much like Ryan Jackson to me. In other mocks I’ve seen Trahan, D.J. Davis, Shaffer, Piscotty, and Gallo connected with the Cards. Gallo’s strikeout issues scare me, but if he’s available in the compensation round I’d snap him up. I wouldn’t be surprised if this draft is similar to the 05 one, when we took a toolsy high schooler and an advanced college bat, so a Trahan/Piscotty or D.J. Davis/Shaffer first round makes sense.
Heaney doesn’t throw a screwball. He is a fb, change, slider guy. Also probably long gone when the Cards pick.
According to what has been reported about him, he does: http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2012/03/03/andrew-heaney-report
I like the Trahan/Shaffer combo a heckuva lot. As for Piscotty, here are his and Shaffer’s park/schedule adjusted stats, courtesy of collegesplits.com:
Shaffer .370/.500/.651
Piscotty .360/.448/.534
Yes, Piscotty rarely fans, but Shaffer is only whiffing in 15% of his PA’s, and has a massive advantage in both patience and pop, with exactly *double* the walk rate and nearly 50% more isolated slugging. Piscotty just looks more like a consolation prize if Shaffer’s already taken.
Oh, and thanks for the Law info, Wachto!
I agree Marrero sounds like Jackson – a 5th rounder!
I only look at Tehran at #19 or #23 if I am 90% sure he can stick at catcher. (and from reading, I’m not).
I really like Stratton. I think he is Lance Lynn with higher upside. Would be very confortable with him at #23.
Picotty is a Stanford bat – how many of those guys go on to success? Maybe at #36 but not sure I’d want him even there.
Still think Dahl might be there at #19.
I think there is definitely going to be good value around at #36 with several polished college pitchers, college outfielders, or even HS pitchers available (Virant?). I dont like Gallo even at #36. At #52 and #59 I think there are several HS shortstops who offer good upside available here and I like Sanburn (from Arkansas) as a guy who could be a starter or a closer in the future who is projected to be available there.
Forgot to add that I think there are lots of good college catchers who could be nabbed in rounds 2-4, though I think there will still be high upside players who I’d rather see drafted at least in round #2.
Would you consider catcher Josh Elander and if so with what pick in the draft?
Dont know that much about him. Probably look at him in round 2 if you have nothing else you like. However, I think you can get another college catcher with a very small decrease in talent/potential in round 3 or 4 (and Elander could even still be there) so if there is anything else I liked in round 2 I’d pass until round 3 or 4 on him.
Assuming he won’t stick at catcher, you don’t believe Trahan will have the bat to profile at a corner outfield/1B position, to justify a high draft pick, ala Will Meyers?
my uneducated opinion is he doesn’t have Wil Myes bat (nor do many). If his bat was that good, people who think he can stay at catcher would have him a top 5 player in the draft.
This is somewhat off topic, but Stanford OF Austin Wilson is a year away from being draft-eligible again. Two years ago, the discussion on this site was “would you rather have Wilson, or Cox?” I’d much rather have Wilson at the lower ranks of our system right now than Cox at Triple A. I might be in the minority on this, and I realize Cox will definitely be a major leaguer at some point, but a very limited one. And if the Cards nab a Richie Shaffer in the first round, he immediately leapfrogs Cox in my mind as the better prospect.
It would be nice to have Wilson at High A ball right now, instead of seeing him have to repeat High-A two or three times in the future, because whatever team happens to draft him next summer will have to rebuild his swing after those hacks at Stanford totally obliterate his ability to hit as a professional.
Really bad decision on Wilson’s part.
I am not so sure going to stanford is really that bad of an eduction. Chance of making it to the majors…Very slim.
There are worse things than having an education from stanford.
Having scouted a fair amount of pitching in the past. I am starting to lean toward drafting high school arms over college arms. This is a total change of position for me, but I am starting to believe that having the more pliable high school pitcher is less risk than the more established college pitcher.
With high schoolers there is time to adjust mechanics and work on pitch development. Pro teams have the luxury of protecting there arms without necessary results. Jenkins and Martinez come to mind here where the team is more worried about having a positive trend than results.
Having worked with college programs, they aren’t going to go out of there way to protect an arm; they will not change pitching mechanics; they are going to focus on pitch selection that generates the best results.
Interesting! Certainly correlates with the Cards’ recent experience.
What do you think about college vs. HS hitters? Do you think there’s an advantage to one or the other, or is it case by case?
Personally, I think the first choice should be pretty simple, even if the metrics that get you there are extremely complex: pick whomever you think offers you the most numerical value, and as a tiebreaker whomever you think will offer that value the soonest. That’s why I was okay with the Wallace and Cox picks, even though neither right now appears likely to be the middle-of-the-order hitter our scouts must’ve thought they could be.
So I’m agnostic on college vs. HS, but it’s interesting to look at it through a scout’s POV.
The traditional view on this (via Bill James) is that the expected value from an average college pick should be considerably higher than the expected value of a high school pick. Jim Callis did a study that confirmed this for the first ten rounds of the draft from 1990-1997, although the disparity was not so steep (8.4% of high schoolers became regulars or better compared to 8.7% of college players). James’ research came out in 1988 though, so it could be that the difference between expected values had already been integrated by team’s draft choices by that point.
I think good postion players are case by case. I think a lot of hitting is pure hand-eye coordination, beyond that you looking for athletes and body types to play positions. Really good athletes for catchers, ss, and cf. Sacrifice athletic ability for hit tool for corner positions. Generally I am agnostic about HS vs college in this sense.
I dont get asked to look at position players too often.
The other thing I enjoy about high school pitchers is that the best are usually really great athletes that get to play other sports. Jenkins is a perfect pick in this regard…off the charts athlete, excellent football player, good body type for a pitcher, a good fastball with command of fastball, natural feel for other pitches. Great athletes with good fastballs and good command of fastballs are usually top 5 rounds type picks, they dont last too long.
The report I wrote for a couple teams on Ordorizzi started with “Terrific athlete, good wide receiver…”
Exactly, if the Cardinals have a specific vision of the TYPE of pitcher they want it’s a lot easier to mold a HS pitcher than to try to change a college one who already has a lot of mileage on their arm.
You realize the Cards took zero HS arms in the draft last year? I don’t know if that means they’ll take a lot this year or it is the beginning of a trend totally away from them.
Hopefully with the extra picks and the success of Miller and Jenkins helps convince them that HS pitchers are worth it.
Success of Miller and Jenkins? Neither have thrown a single pitch in the major leagues.
And if anything else, the data would suggest that HS pitchers are not worth it.
You don’t think that Miller and Jenkins are succeeding as prospects right now? Both could be centerpieces in and get us a good player in return. Both have pitched well and both stocks have improved. If they aren’t succeeding as prospects who are? Or are you of the camp that until someone makes the bigs they can’t be considered as having success as a prospect?
Succeed as prospects are different than succeeding as major leaguers. Its just simply premature to call the selections “success”. Succeeding as a prospect is an arbitratry process based on nothing but opinion, where as actual success is tangible.
I am in the camp that until a person produces something tangible, they are not a success.
You may want to check the source of the Cardinals entire starting rotation, including Chris Carpenter. Every one of them was a HS pick.
Not sure who you are talking to but Lance Lynn? Plus we didn’t draft them as high schoolers. He signed or traded for them.
Right, still don’t think of Lynn as a starter, my bad. Whether we drafted them like Garcia or not is immaterial. Look at the best starters over the last ten years – there may be more college pitchers in the bigs, but a disproportionate percentage of the top starters are HS picks considering that college pitchers are far more likely to get drafted early. Most of the really good college pitchers like Verlander and Strasburg never last long enough for the Cardinals to get them.
I completely agree, I’ve stated before I favor HS arms because the organization can mold them as they see if, they can control the development of the innings increase and there are less miles on the arm than in college. I completely agree that given 2 pitchers with equal talent I would rather the team draft a HS one.
That is the key thing…”equal talent”. Usually, they are not graded equally. For instance, if a HS kid throwing 92 is much better than a college senior throing 92.
But what does that have to do with success at the later portion of the draft? Just becasue the best pitchers are gone doesn’t mean that you should only select high school pitchers then. That doesn’t make sense. Why isn’t it your beleif that the cards should only select college pitchers becasue the top HS talent is selected early?
You mentione that top starters come from HS…Well lets look at last year.
Kershaw – HS 7th pick
Halladay – HS 17th pick
Lee – College 4th round
Verlander – College 2nd pick
Vogelsong – college 5th round
Lincicum – College 10th pick
Hamels – HS 17th pick
Sheilds – HS – 16th round
Fister-College 7th round.
Out of the top 10, 4 were HS picks, 6 were college.
Out of the last 5 Cy young winners in each leage 5 HS, 5 Col (IFA were ignored).
I don’t buy your theory that a disproportionate percentage of top starters are HS picks. In fact, based on last year, it appears the majority are college. Especially if you consider where the cards selected from.
Here’s a link to Callis’ research from the 90s
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/90-97draftbreakdown.html
FWIW, a greater percentage of college pitchers rated as “star” level than HS, while a greater percentage of HS pitchers rated as “good” level than college. Somewhat counter-intuitive to the normal thought processes on upside, no?
That is good information.
The other thing to consider with a HS. Player is that you have to pay a premium to sign them even though they have a greater failure rate.
Then on top of that, if they do become an all-star or better, you have to pay a premium for that as well or risk loosing them to free agency.
Sure…If you ignore Lance Lynn, Kyle Loshe and Jamie Garcia.
Wouldn’t they have thought that way last year if that was going to define their thinking?
Yes…I realize this. I have come to the conclusion it is a mistake.
This is not the year to be taking a college hitter in the first round. It’s one of the worst college classes in a LONG time. I’ll be very upset if they take a guy like Piscotty in the first round. They likely need to target an arm in this class or if they go bat, go with a high school one.
Limiting myself to college players in this article was a pain because the college crop this year is terribly thin. I have reservations about all the guys listed here and would rather see us take upside in the first round. Seedlings and Stars had us picking Courtney Hawkins, which would be great. Trahan would be fine also, although he’s had some struggles this spring. I’ll write about him next week as he seems to be a popular subject on here.
If this is this is true, the it is kind of reminicent of 05, when college class was down but it was a bery good HS crop.
I don’t know that any group out of the respective groups (HS ptichers/hitters or CO pitchers/hitters) is any good this year . This draft has been lamented as one of the worst in a couple decades. Cannot point to a surefire superstar anywhere. Irrespective of the praise to Buxton, he has not had the exposure many of the other top HS hitters in the past 5 years have had.
To be honest though the Cardinals rarely draft in a place where they even have access to guys who will be surefire superstars.
Couldn’t agree more about Piscataway, K-loop.
Shaffer, on the other hand, looks like a guy who could be above MLB average in all three batting categories (avg., walks, and pop), and that hitting skillset plays anywhere on the diamond for me.
I’m curious. Any specific misgivings about Richie S., Karma? (That adjusted OPS of 1.150 with 40% more walks that whiffs looks pretty good on the face of it.)
I’m always hesitant taking pure first baseman early in the draft. The 2008 draft was the last draft besides last year’s (C.J. Cron) when at least first baseman was taken. So my question is Shaffer in the same breath as Yonder Alonso or Justin Smoak? And my answer is no. I don’t see a great hitter, I see a really good one, but not great. His swing gets a bit long and he’s susceptible to inside pitches which leads me to believe his average is going to be closer to .275 than it is .300. He’s clearly a first baseman, and I don’t think he hits well enough to warrant a first round pick. I like him, I just don’t love him enough to sink a first round pick. If he’s there in the supplementary round, you gobble him up and don’t think twice about it. Sort of the same with Gallo, although a bit more lenient given Gallo is in HS.
Deven Marrero reminds me a lot of Ryan Jackson as well, especially in the sense that neither is a punchless slap hitter (as sharp fielding shortstops often are) but they suffer from noisy swings. Marrero can get into some extrenuous foot taps when he’s trying to time his swing and it gets a little messy. Streamlining could help some of his contact issues maybe, but it’s impossible to tell how changing a hitter’s swing will affect him.
Apparently the Pirates are really into Marrero, according to Law and a few other sources.
I’d like to see us take Trahan and a safe guy like Fontana in the first. There are a lot of solid HS arms that we can grab in the supplemental rounds, especially if they could save money on a guy like Fontana. I also wouldn’t mind us taking a change on Pierce Johnson.
A balance approach is best.
That is WAY too high on Fontana I believe. I do see value in him but I think he can be had in the supplemental round or even hte 2nd. Taking him at 23 would be mroe of an overdraft than Kozma I believe.
Fontana is interesting as an OBP guy with a good line drive swing (like Kolten Wong). He doesn’t have the arm to stay at short though.
I have heard the Pirates like Marrero, so that would seem to make sense.
I don’t want Trahan at 19, and don’t want Fontana in the first. I hope they take a high risk, high reward players like Courtney Hawkins at 19 and then grab a college pitcher at 23.
Wondering how Hawkins is different that Gallo in your mind?
Also why not Trahan at 19. Also don’t you think that Shaffer is the best bet to be able to use his power in the Major Leagues?
Mainly defensive position. Gallo is definitely a first baseman, where as Hawkins is a RF. I don’t like drafting first baseman in the first round, since you can find quality ones later on in the draft. They both have big power, strong arms, and holes in their swing just once projects to be a strong armed RFer where as one is a strong armed 1B.
I’m not convinced Trahan is a catcher long term, which hurts his value. At 23, I’m okay with him but I’d be hesitant giving him two million at 19. Seems like nothing, but if we’re targeting Trahan at 23 I only see the Blue Jays as a potential threat to take him and given their depth that seems unlikely.
The great thing about Trahan is because we have Molina we can bring him along very slowly.
They took some HS arms…just didn’t sign any
Hawkins is a RF…positional value alone makes him a better prospect IMHO
Don’t sleep on Victor Roache either. Injuries, etc., and sparse power bats at collegiate level, could make him a good sleeper pick with one of our first round choices. For some reason I think Michael Choice when I read about him.
Michael Choice wouldn’t be who I would think of. Choice was a centerfield now, but projected to move to right field as his body slowed down. Roaches sounds like more like a LF who will have to eventually move to first base.
Good point. . .I probably should have prefaced that by stating his power potential, offensive abilities, etc. Roache is definitely a corner outfielder.
There is a Roache v Choice post over at Sickels site. Choice seems to have more speed and may stick in CF. Roache may have more power and a better swing.
Thanks for the response, Karma. I’d have to search for the reports, but I’ve read that Shaffer’s glovework at the hot corner has been surprisingly good, actually. (Might have been Law, or maybe Garrioch at the Sickels site.)
If Shaffer is 1st base only, I’m with you 100%. If he’s a 3rd baseman with the athleticism to play both corner outfield slots, well, maybe he’s Allen Craig Lite. ;)
I would be happy if they nabbed Jankowski with one of their later picks.