Comments on: Draft Risers and Fallers (College Edition)

By: zuke354

zuke354 — Thu, 17 May 2012 16:42:35 +0000

I would be happy if they nabbed Jankowski with one of their later picks.

By: Bob

Bob — Thu, 17 May 2012 16:22:28 +0000

Thanks for the response, Karma. I’d have to search for the reports, but I’ve read that Shaffer’s glovework at the hot corner has been surprisingly good, actually. (Might have been Law, or maybe Garrioch at the Sickels site.)

If Shaffer is 1st base only, I’m with you 100%. If he’s a 3rd baseman with the athleticism to play both corner outfield slots, well, maybe he’s Allen Craig Lite. ;)

By: zuke354

zuke354 — Thu, 17 May 2012 16:17:05 +0000

That is good information.

The other thing to consider with a HS. Player is that you have to pay a premium to sign them even though they have a greater failure rate.

Then on top of that, if they do become an all-star or better, you have to pay a premium for that as well or risk loosing them to free agency.

By: Purple_Haze

Purple_Haze — Thu, 17 May 2012 15:18:23 +0000

Here’s a link to Callis’ research from the 90s
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/90-97draftbreakdown.html

FWIW, a greater percentage of college pitchers rated as “star” level than HS, while a greater percentage of HS pitchers rated as “good” level than college. Somewhat counter-intuitive to the normal thought processes on upside, no?

By: zuke354

zuke354 — Thu, 17 May 2012 14:35:35 +0000

That is the key thing…”equal talent”. Usually, they are not graded equally. For instance, if a HS kid throwing 92 is much better than a college senior throing 92.

By: zuke354

zuke354 — Thu, 17 May 2012 14:34:13 +0000

But what does that have to do with success at the later portion of the draft? Just becasue the best pitchers are gone doesn’t mean that you should only select high school pitchers then. That doesn’t make sense. Why isn’t it your beleif that the cards should only select college pitchers becasue the top HS talent is selected early?

You mentione that top starters come from HS…Well lets look at last year.

Kershaw – HS 7th pick
Halladay – HS 17th pick
Lee – College 4th round
Verlander – College 2nd pick
Vogelsong – college 5th round
Lincicum – College 10th pick
Hamels – HS 17th pick
Sheilds – HS – 16th round
Fister-College 7th round.

Out of the top 10, 4 were HS picks, 6 were college.
Out of the last 5 Cy young winners in each leage 5 HS, 5 Col (IFA were ignored).

I don’t buy your theory that a disproportionate percentage of top starters are HS picks. In fact, based on last year, it appears the majority are college. Especially if you consider where the cards selected from.

By: zuke354

zuke354 — Thu, 17 May 2012 14:12:39 +0000

Sure…If you ignore Lance Lynn, Kyle Loshe and Jamie Garcia.

By: zuke354

zuke354 — Thu, 17 May 2012 14:08:47 +0000

Succeed as prospects are different than succeeding as major leaguers. Its just simply premature to call the selections “success”. Succeeding as a prospect is an arbitratry process based on nothing but opinion, where as actual success is tangible.

I am in the camp that until a person produces something tangible, they are not a success.

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Thu, 17 May 2012 08:01:57 +0000

Wouldn’t they have thought that way last year if that was going to define their thinking?

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Thu, 17 May 2012 07:59:13 +0000

Dont know that much about him. Probably look at him in round 2 if you have nothing else you like. However, I think you can get another college catcher with a very small decrease in talent/potential in round 3 or 4 (and Elander could even still be there) so if there is anything else I liked in round 2 I’d pass until round 3 or 4 on him.