Surprisingly enough, not too many people are talking about Carlos Martinez this year. Shelby Miller in Memphis, Trevor Rosenthal in Springfield and Tyrell Jenkins making his full season debut, Martinez has seen very little hype. Let’s examine why and look at the numbers after the jump.
The Cardinals jumped Trevor Rosenthal over Palm Beach this season, starting him in Springfield after ending last season in Quad Cities, which generates a lot of hype. Carlos Martinez ended last season in Palm Beach, and began this season in Palm Beach. However, Rosenthal is two years older than Martinez. Shelby Miller is only 1 year older than Martinez, but is certainly a more advanced pitcher and has a lot of people paying attention by being one step from the majors.
Carlos Martinez is the 16th youngest player in the Florida State League and the youngest player on the Palm Beach Cardinals and the youngest pitcher by a year and a half. In 7 starts, he has faced 141 batters in 33 innings, struck out 34(9.27 per 9 innings) and walked only 10 (2.73 per 9 innings). Around 49% of his balls in play are hit on the ground. With a BABIP of .320 he’s not getting lucky with batted balls. (In fact, he might be slightly unlucky with the league average of .305 on balls in play.) Martinez is allowing fewer line drives than league average, more ground balls, striking out more batters and walking fewer. With an ERA of 3.00 and a FIP of 2.59, those positive numbers are reflected in the composite numbers. And to top it off the tRA+ of 126 tells us what we already knew, that Carlos Martinez is pitching much better than the average for his league all the while still being young for his league.
There is some indication that the Cardinals are keeping Carlos Martinez in Palm Beach to work with Dennis Martinez, the former pitcher from Nicaragua and current Palm Beach Cardinals pitching coach.
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Might want to point out thatne is currently on DL with shoulder tendinitis
Nice overview, Jeff.
Martinez has indeed been more than solid this year; I guess we all crave to be dazzled, rather than merely impressed…especially when it comes to high-octane twirlers.
As long as Carlos keeps doing exactly what he’s doing, and remains healthy for the entire season, he’s definitely a top-echelon pitching prospect, i.e. *somewhere* in the 5-20 range among all hurlers.
It is true that Martinez isn’t getting nearly as much love this year compared to last season. I think the main reason for that has been Trevor Rosenthal. He came into spring training this season sitting high 90′s and dazzled not only the Cardinals’ staff, but also all of the writers that follow the club. Because of this, all we heard about all spring was Rosenthal’s 100 mph fastballs and we got excited that maybe he had reached top prospect level. Couple that with the fact that he jumped to AA and now more people are enamored with him instead of Martinez.
If/when Martinez gets promoted this season, I think we’ll see a shift back towards him. But until then, we will hope for his health and expect him to continue success.
I have never thought of CMart as lacking any love. I still rank him #2 behind Miller. Rosenthal got extra attention IMO becuase he was a surprise to many and everyone wanted to ascertain if it is real or not. I don’t think there has ever been any similar angst with CMart.
Just a point of clarification, CMart is 1 year and 4 months younger than Rosenthal…”2 years” difference makes Rosie sound older than he is. There is a 5 month age difference between Rosenthal and Miller. Miller is 11 months older than CMart.
Just the fact that we are having a discussion about 3 pitchers of this caliber in the cardinals farm system puts a smile on my face!
… You could say 4, with Miller, Rosenthal, Martinez, and Jenkins.
Too bad Swagerty needed TJ Surgery because he was starting to get some attention as a potential mid-rotation starter as well. And don’t sleep on other #3-#5 starter types in Kelly and Gast. Good times for Cards fans. Lets hope 2 or 3 of the 7 I listed can come close to the expectations many are likely to place on them. Lynn and Garcia should help the rotation as well.
I still prefer Swagerty in as the closer. I think he can hack it as a starter, but with the depth of arms in our farm system and the lack of quality bullpen arms. We’ve got enough of those long relief RHP options, but we’re void of LHP and closer materials IMO.
He will most likely end up in a relief role, especially next year as he attempts to recover from surgery. It’s a shame because, in my opinion, #3 starters are more valuable than set-up men or closers.
He was probably always destined to be a high leverage reliever anyway. We could potentially see him in STL late next season. Possibly as a September call-up.
I don’t think he will get his stuff together and be able to skip 2 levels and be in STL by end of next year. Maybe the year after if they want him as a reliever.
Wasn’t he in relief in Springfield last year? I was thinking he may start there if he looks alright in Spring Training.
So he if he starts in AA next season, he could see a promotion to AAA by June. Once he gets to AAA, he’s probably only an injury or unseccessful performance away from being called up. All of this depends on his stuff coming back to normal, however.
They aren’t going to rush someone who just had TJ surgery.
The one question I keep coming back to is “Is it really rushing him if he’s ready?”
This came up when someone made a comment about rushing Kolten Wong and/or Oscar Taveras. I used the example of Wil Myers (he was still at AA at the time). Is it really rushing the guy if he’s hitting .340 with a high OBP? To me that means he’s ready for another challenge.
For example, if Swagerty is 3-0 with 1.00 ERA and 12 K/9 and 3 K/BB after two months in AA next season, is it rushing him to AAA? I, for one, do not think so. Just a difference of opinion, I suppose.
He will have just came off TJ, Remember how Wainwright has struggled with consistency once coming back. The organization may want him to stick at starter as he is coming back. No need to rush him really especially such a young guy that may. It’s rushing or not depending on what the organization wants to do with him starter or reliever. Also it’s quite the assumption that he will come off surgery and immediately have those stats.
We’re not on the same page.
I’ve had TJ. I know what it’s like. Part of Wainwright’s early struggles are due to facing MLB hitters (Swagerty won’t). Part of it is because his stuff isn’t completely back yet (takes nearly 2 years). Part of it is because he doesn’t have the control back yet (takes nearly 2 years).
I have a feeling the Cards will put him in the bullpen next year to limit his innings coming of TJ (like Matt Morris). Who knows, maybe they’ll put him in extended Spring Training and put him at a short-season club so he can be a starter and build innings.
As the Cardinals have proven over past years, just because you’re in the bullpen doesn’t mean you will never be a starter again (Looper, Wainwright, Piniero, McClellan, Lynn, Rzepchinski, etc. etc.).
This is really simple. You think he’ll go back to being a starter (I guess) and I think he’ll remain in the bullpen with an eye towards a Sept. callup if he’s needed (because I don’t have a lot of faith in our bullpen moving forward).
I think part of the reason why Martinez isn’t getting the hype he deserves has to do with the success for Oscar Taveras. I can’t speak for everyone, but Taveras seems to be solidifying himself as the #2 prospect in the Cardinals organization with his play in AA.
If he keeps it up, OT is number 1 in my book…….
I think it’s great how a player like Martinez or even better Richard Castillo would have been all the talk 2-3 years ago. People would have been trying to project their future with endless outcomes. But because the system is so rich in talent he/they can goe unnoticed at times. Things have definitely changed.
I think it’s important to note that Carlos main questions have never been results or stuff, but more in the way he achieves the results. He’s a smallish righty with a big fastball and developing secondary stuff at High-A. to eveolve into a SP at the big league level he needs to be more efficient and develop the secondary offerings to where he can’t just overpower hitters.
CMart has a bright future, but due to the effort in his delivery (which has improved) and the secondary offerings lagging a bit behind, many still see his future as a reliever. Being a reliever in the end severely hampers his overall value, so I hope he can remain a starter.
Well, I hope he will be appropriately utilized to obtain maximum value. If he can give us consistent play in the ML’s as a reliever, but will give us sporadic shoulder issues interspersed with brilliant starts, I’d settle for the pen.
The big team lost again tonight with poor pen work after an incredible offensive return. The pen needs to be solid from soup to nuts. I don’t really care what his prospect ranking is….in the final analysis, I want the player to contribute at the ML level and do so consistently.
I think Cincy will give us fits this year, not because their starters are better than us, but because their pen is….way better.
No one is arguing that if he needs to be a reliever not to make him a reliever, I was responding to the post talking about his quietly good start and now he doesn’t have as much buzz.
There are reasons he doesn’t have quite the same buzz, and it’s not because of numbers. It’s because of scouting reports questioning if he can remain a starter, and with shoulder concerns now (the worst concerns for a pitcher), you can see why those reports are out there.