DanUp at Viva El Birdos does a tremendous job quantifying what I’ve been trying for days to get straight in my head as the Cardinals have been going back to the well and retrieving Memphis Redbirds to come fill in for the injury-plagued St. Louis Cardinals. (Are they “injury-plagued”? How many injuries makes a plague? Are there different sizes of plagues? I mean, not every season is the Black Death. Sometimes, you are just talking about a bird flu pandemic or whooping cough.) This and other minutia after the jump.
As DanUp shows, the Memphis Redbirds started an outfield of (from L to R) Mark Hamilton, Lou Montanez and Jamie Romak who have ages of 28, 30 and 28. Not exactly the future superstars you hope to see in AAA Memphis. However, triple-A has a unique relationship to the major league club and roster. The Cardinals dig there for players to cover when injuries strike and given the way player development works, they don’t often fill those holes with players from AA and below. Often those holes are filling with players in the independent leagues and cast-offs from other organizations.
Memphis is currently filled with prospects, (Shelby Miller, Zack Cox, Ryan Jackson, Maikel Cleto and Adam Reifer), former prospects that haven’t been able to permanently break that glass ceiling to the majors (Mark Hamilton, Bryan Anderson, Brian Broderick, Jess Todd, Pete Kozma) and some flotsam that fills in roster spots for a summer before moving along to the next location (Aaron Bates, Mitch Canham, Cedric Hunter, Lou Montanez, Jamie Romak, Eugenio Velez, R.J. Swindle, Clay Zavada). DanUp does a great job of finding more information about these players, some of whom arrived just yesterday.
What can we do with the Redbirds? Nothing really, the needs of the big club come before everything and right now they need people who can swing the bat and play multiple positions. However, the Memphis Redbirds still need to play games, so bring in the warm bodies who can get their names into box scores and Viva El Birdos and Future Redbirds when we have no clue who they are or where they came from.
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This may be a bit unfair to Hunter and Zavada. Hunter was a decently regarded prospect at one time, of whom Kevin Goldstein said, “Batting .343/.385/.457 since move to Triple-A; scouts see a big leaguer, but more of a fourth outfielder/second-division starter at best.” He could still get to that second tier. As for Zavada, he had one pretty decent partial season in the Show (Arizona, 2009) before his UCL went sproing. Depending on recovery from that (and it’s been a curiously long time), there’s every chance he could be the second LOOGY if Matheny decides he needs one. I was honestly surprised he was available. (Plus, he’s possessed of what must certainly be the most interesting middle name in all of pro sports, which I will leave as an exercise for the reader.)
Bryan Anderson went 6 for 6 tonight and drove in the winning run in extras. Perhaps he’s coming out of that depressed state he went into after not making the major league squad. Glad to have you back Bryan. Keep pounding the way you can and hopefully someone will trade for you.
As for the Memphis roster, it’s like 7 or so years ago when we had a lot of free agents come and go. One year there was 50 different players suit up for the Redbirds. The revolving door ended when Luhnow took over.
Right now there is a gap in our system at PB for position players. Nothing of any consequence there, but help may be on the way soon from QC. Even Springfield only has Taveras, Wong and maybe Curtis. I think we need to go heavy on drafting position players this year. I can think of probably 15 to 20 pitchers who could end up in the show, but you’d really have to stretch to find 10 position players.
Bryan Anderson will probably have to waif for Free agency. If somebody wanted him, they would have picked him up by now.
I would really call it a gap. Lots of players have been promoted and there are lots of injuries. Its nice that the club can call up its own talent to fill in holes. Its also nice that we have developed a skip shumaker instead of having to go out and find a skip shumaker.
Things will change in a vit when guys start coming back from injury. Not sure if Adams will stay up, and Robinson and Chambers will probably return as well.
greg garcia would be the third most interesting position player at springfield, i would think.
your right wileyvet I have been following the system for 5 years now.From 2007 to 2009 we drafted a lot of great position players but the last few years only a few have come up strong thru the system.I.E. GARCIA,WONG,TRAVERAS.The system is still pitcher heavy with a lot still recovering from injury.we need some good collage players early in the draft who could move up quickly.
Not only did Anderson have 6 hits, but Hamilton had 3 and Kozma had 2 homers perhaps motivated by being passed over by players who weren’t on the 40 man. As for replacements, I would have sent Curtis and Swauger back to Memphis instead of signing retreads like Bates and Montanez. Then, promote Ahmady and Albits to AA and Walsh and Mateo to PB. Return Wittels to QC along with another currently on the Batavia roster.
I see the points you guys are making, but if we get to #19 and/or #23, and the highest player on the draft board is a pitcher, I sure hope we take the pitcher.
It’s great that we have 15 to 20 pitchers with MLB potential, but the turnover at every level is so high that a good system needs a lot of arms.
It’s a fluke that we’ve had so many position-player injuries in such a compressed period. Jay runs into a wall, Craig pulls a hammy, Berk blows a knee, M Carp tweaks an oblique, and all of a sudden we’re thin at what had been our deepest positions back in March.
But in a typical season, the attrition is going to come with pitchers. We’ve already lost Big Carp, Linebrink, and McClellan from the varsity, along with Swagerty and Martinez in the minors, and probably a bunch of guys I’m forgetting.
With any draft, I think we have to pick BPA available with the idea that we need everything, every year. We never have enough pitchers. We can always use middle-of-the-order hitters, middle infielders, a good catcher, speed at any position …
I don’t disagree with most of this, and I am very much in agreement that we shouldn’t couple the draft strategy too closely to what’s happening right now at the major-league level. The run of injuries of the last few weeks would overstress any farm system. (After all, they have overstressed what, by consensus, is one of the best systems out there.) This said, I am less convinced that we should take a strict BPA approach, for reasons I have described before: the 19th and 23rd best players in the pool are not at a grossly different talent level than the 25th to 30th guys. This is very unlike the situation where you have a high slot, as the 5th or even 10th best player IS qualitatively different from the 15th to 20th talents. In that high-slot situation, you absolutely take the best player available. But the Cardinals don’t have a high slot.
I disagree. There is still considerable drop off between 19-25 and 25-30. Not as big of drop off as the top, but still a measurable difference. 2002 probably illustrates this the best.
After that , I might be more willing to agree with you. However, the cards seem to have a successful system in place. So I give a little bit more credence to their system of ranking BPA than most teams.
Good point about the strength of the decision-making process that’s in place now.
Was 2002 the worst draft in franchise history? Bad enough to give away our 2nd-round pick for Tino Martinez. (Don’t mind losing the first rounder for Izzy.) Imagine if we had kept that pick and selected Curtis Granderson, who went 9 picks later.
But to then draft 10 guys before we get to a single guy who made it to the majors? (Reid Gorecki, the 12th rounder.)
When your 25th rounder is Kyle McClellan, and he’s the best of the entire class, that’s a pretty sorry performance. (Marty Maier was scouting director that year, FWIW.)
In all fairness, 2002 was a rather top-heavy draft class. There were plenty of first rounders who have gone on to have significant major-league careers, but since the Cardinals were drafting last among all 30 teams, none would have been on the board if they’d had a first-round pick. As for the second-round giveaway, the only guy drafted in the third round (and therefore available at the end of the second) who has gone on to anything approaching stardom was Granderson. There wasn’t much else in the rest of the round. Nor were there lots of high achievers still on the board when they finally did get a choice. The only one I can see who was remotely predictable was Josh Johnson, and while I’d certainly rather have him than the nonentity we actually drafted, that’s not a lot of whiffs. At least one whiff like that will happen each year to even the most astute talent evaluators, let alone to Maier (who, to be sure, was a lemon).
As for the business about “considerable drop off between 19-25 and 25-30″, you can feel that way if you want to, but saying it doesn’t make it true. In an earlier thread here, I have posted statistics over the lifetime of the draft for the probability of guys in these slots reaching the Show, and their overall contributions once they did. The data simply do not show that “considerable drop off” during the last third of the first round. If you don’t believe me, go look at Baseball Prospectus; they looked at this carefully a few years ago and reached the same conclusion that I did.
i agree; nothing shows that there’s a meaningful dropoff anywhere between pick #11 and pick #30.
The injuries in St.Louis have nothing to do with what I was talking about really. I was just saying there is a talent gap in position players lower down in the system. We’ve had to sign a whole bunch of washed up players to play in Memphis because there is nothing to replace them with in Spr & PB, with the exception of Taveras and Wong. They don’t want to promote Oscar yet due to his age and Kolten is blocked by Kozma. Jermaine Curtis has Zack Cox in his way.
The talent level in top heavy in Memphis, which is why we can absorb the injuries in STL. What talent do we have lower down; Colin Walsh and Luis Mateo for sure. Tilson and McIlroy? O’Neill can hit but his upside is akin to Aaron Miles or Shane Robinson. That’s my point.
I would use the first three picks on a catcher, shortstop and power hitter and the next two on pitchers. I sure wouldn’t pass up on a pitcher that may slip to us, however, on the whole, I’d lean toward position players.
Pitching depth we have throughout the system.
As for the discussion of drop off in draft talent. The whole thing is a crap shot. We all know that the 30th pick could turn out to be better then the first pick. How many of our star players were first rounders?
Your way off I believe. We have alot of talent but it’s simply not developed. When AAA becomes a first aid station for the Big League club it’s much better for the system as a hole and the players in the system if we signg minor league filler rather than promoting guys before they are ready and yankings them up and down levels simply to fill holes.
We have talent, just not many results at this point.
Wow Andrew, I wish I had your optimism, but you’re the one who’s way off. You keep believing brother, unfortunately it’s not like planting crops. The good news is that our prospects do have better odds of making it then say……sperm.
I’m a very wealthy man, I just don’t have any money.
So we disagree. You believe that the farm system is like a conveyor belt where if a piece goes out at one level you should just move the piece up from the level below to fill in. This hurts the development of people. Look at Zach Cox. He’s very slow to adjust to a level. The Cardinals have all but admitted that it was a mistake to start him in Memphis but Matt Carpenter made the team so it’s the only move that made sense. Except it didn’t make since as he hadn’t completely mastered AA yet. He’s paying the price now big time.
Some prospects make it some fail, but they are more likely to fail if you move them up before they have mastered the level they are at. That is why you bring in guys like Hunter and Romak and Canhan, because you don’t want to move Springfield guys up before they are ready.
Who could have moved up to fill the OF hole in Memphis? Could have been Tommy Pham but he’s gone for the year. Taveras’s development is 100 times more important than filling a hole in Memphis. Who could come to Memphis to be the backup catcher? Iguess Perez could be he’s still somewhat of a prospect and Debra looks like he’s Rosenthals personal catcher. Both much more important than having a back up at Memphis.
We have had guys that have jumped levels and played very well this year so far. Mostly pitchers. Gast, Maness and Castillo have all been outstanding at there new levels.
Talent at the lower level? Quad Cities is plenty talented but again a long way away as they should because they are Low A. Palm Beach is filled with guys who won the Midwest League title last year. Ronny Gil is a legit SS prospect. Siegrist is outstanding and a lefty, Jonathan Rodriquez has put up good numbers but has struck out too much. Not so much a prospect but still a 1st baseman putting up good numbers similarly to what Xavie Scruggs did last year.