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	<title>Comments on: The Memphis Cardinals</title>
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	<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2012/05/24/the-memphis-cardinals/</link>
	<description>Baseball&#039;s Future in the Gateway City</description>
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		<title>By: Andrew</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2012/05/24/the-memphis-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-67325</link>
		<dc:creator>Andrew</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 May 2012 05:47:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=9260#comment-67325</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[So we disagree.  You believe that the farm system is like a conveyor belt where if a piece goes out at one level you should just move the piece up from the level below to fill in.  This hurts the development of people.  Look at Zach Cox.  He&#039;s very slow to adjust to a level.  The Cardinals have all but admitted that it was a mistake to start him in Memphis but Matt Carpenter made the team so it&#039;s the only move that made sense.  Except it didn&#039;t make since as he hadn&#039;t completely mastered AA yet.  He&#039;s paying the price now big time.

Some prospects make it some fail, but they are more likely to fail if you move them up before they have mastered the level they are at.  That is why you bring in guys like Hunter and Romak and Canhan, because you don&#039;t want to move Springfield guys up before they are ready.

Who could have moved up to fill the OF hole in Memphis? Could have been Tommy Pham but he&#039;s gone for the year. Taveras&#039;s development is 100 times more important than filling a hole in Memphis. Who could come to Memphis to be the backup catcher? Iguess Perez could be he&#039;s still somewhat of a prospect and Debra looks like he&#039;s Rosenthals personal catcher.  Both much more important than having a back up at Memphis.

We have had guys that have jumped levels and played very well this year so far.  Mostly pitchers.  Gast, Maness and Castillo have all been outstanding at there new levels.

Talent at the lower level?  Quad Cities is plenty talented but again a long way away as they should because they are Low A.  Palm Beach is filled with guys who won the Midwest League title last year. Ronny Gil is a legit SS prospect. Siegrist is outstanding and a lefty, Jonathan Rodriquez has put up good numbers but has struck out too much.  Not so much a prospect but still a 1st baseman putting up good numbers similarly to what Xavie Scruggs did last year.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So we disagree.  You believe that the farm system is like a conveyor belt where if a piece goes out at one level you should just move the piece up from the level below to fill in.  This hurts the development of people.  Look at Zach Cox.  He&#8217;s very slow to adjust to a level.  The Cardinals have all but admitted that it was a mistake to start him in Memphis but Matt Carpenter made the team so it&#8217;s the only move that made sense.  Except it didn&#8217;t make since as he hadn&#8217;t completely mastered AA yet.  He&#8217;s paying the price now big time.</p>
<p>Some prospects make it some fail, but they are more likely to fail if you move them up before they have mastered the level they are at.  That is why you bring in guys like Hunter and Romak and Canhan, because you don&#8217;t want to move Springfield guys up before they are ready.</p>
<p>Who could have moved up to fill the OF hole in Memphis? Could have been Tommy Pham but he&#8217;s gone for the year. Taveras&#8217;s development is 100 times more important than filling a hole in Memphis. Who could come to Memphis to be the backup catcher? Iguess Perez could be he&#8217;s still somewhat of a prospect and Debra looks like he&#8217;s Rosenthals personal catcher.  Both much more important than having a back up at Memphis.</p>
<p>We have had guys that have jumped levels and played very well this year so far.  Mostly pitchers.  Gast, Maness and Castillo have all been outstanding at there new levels.</p>
<p>Talent at the lower level?  Quad Cities is plenty talented but again a long way away as they should because they are Low A.  Palm Beach is filled with guys who won the Midwest League title last year. Ronny Gil is a legit SS prospect. Siegrist is outstanding and a lefty, Jonathan Rodriquez has put up good numbers but has struck out too much.  Not so much a prospect but still a 1st baseman putting up good numbers similarly to what Xavie Scruggs did last year.</p>
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		<title>By: wileyvet</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2012/05/24/the-memphis-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-67323</link>
		<dc:creator>wileyvet</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 May 2012 05:18:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=9260#comment-67323</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Wow Andrew, I wish I had your optimism, but you&#039;re the one who&#039;s way off.  You keep believing brother, unfortunately it&#039;s not like planting crops.  The good news is that our prospects do have better odds of making it then say......sperm.

I&#039;m a very wealthy man, I just don&#039;t have any money.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wow Andrew, I wish I had your optimism, but you&#8217;re the one who&#8217;s way off.  You keep believing brother, unfortunately it&#8217;s not like planting crops.  The good news is that our prospects do have better odds of making it then say&#8230;&#8230;sperm.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m a very wealthy man, I just don&#8217;t have any money.</p>
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		<title>By: Andrew</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2012/05/24/the-memphis-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-67266</link>
		<dc:creator>Andrew</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 May 2012 06:35:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=9260#comment-67266</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Your way off I believe.  We have alot of talent but it&#039;s simply not developed.  When AAA becomes a first aid station for the Big League club it&#039;s much better for the system as a hole and the players in the system if we signg minor league filler rather than promoting guys before they are ready and yankings them up and down levels simply to fill holes.

We have talent, just not many results at this point.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Your way off I believe.  We have alot of talent but it&#8217;s simply not developed.  When AAA becomes a first aid station for the Big League club it&#8217;s much better for the system as a hole and the players in the system if we signg minor league filler rather than promoting guys before they are ready and yankings them up and down levels simply to fill holes.</p>
<p>We have talent, just not many results at this point.</p>
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		<title>By: wileyvet</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2012/05/24/the-memphis-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-67264</link>
		<dc:creator>wileyvet</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 May 2012 06:06:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=9260#comment-67264</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The injuries in St.Louis have nothing to do with what I was talking about really.  I was just saying there is a talent gap in position players lower down in the system.  We&#039;ve had to sign a whole bunch of washed up players to play in Memphis because there is nothing to replace them with in Spr &amp; PB, with the exception of Taveras and Wong.  They don&#039;t want to promote Oscar yet due to his age and Kolten is blocked by Kozma.  Jermaine Curtis has Zack Cox in his way.

The talent level in top heavy in Memphis, which is why we can absorb the injuries in STL.  What talent do we have lower down; Colin Walsh and Luis Mateo for sure.  Tilson and McIlroy?  O&#039;Neill can hit but his upside is akin to Aaron Miles or Shane Robinson.  That&#039;s my point.  

I would use the first three picks on a catcher, shortstop and power hitter and the next two on pitchers.  I sure wouldn&#039;t pass up on a pitcher that may slip to us, however, on the whole, I&#039;d lean toward position players.

Pitching depth we have throughout the system.  

As for the discussion of drop off in draft talent.  The whole thing is a crap shot.  We all know that the 30th pick could turn out to be better then the first pick.  How many of our star players were first rounders?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The injuries in St.Louis have nothing to do with what I was talking about really.  I was just saying there is a talent gap in position players lower down in the system.  We&#8217;ve had to sign a whole bunch of washed up players to play in Memphis because there is nothing to replace them with in Spr &amp; PB, with the exception of Taveras and Wong.  They don&#8217;t want to promote Oscar yet due to his age and Kolten is blocked by Kozma.  Jermaine Curtis has Zack Cox in his way.</p>
<p>The talent level in top heavy in Memphis, which is why we can absorb the injuries in STL.  What talent do we have lower down; Colin Walsh and Luis Mateo for sure.  Tilson and McIlroy?  O&#8217;Neill can hit but his upside is akin to Aaron Miles or Shane Robinson.  That&#8217;s my point.  </p>
<p>I would use the first three picks on a catcher, shortstop and power hitter and the next two on pitchers.  I sure wouldn&#8217;t pass up on a pitcher that may slip to us, however, on the whole, I&#8217;d lean toward position players.</p>
<p>Pitching depth we have throughout the system.  </p>
<p>As for the discussion of drop off in draft talent.  The whole thing is a crap shot.  We all know that the 30th pick could turn out to be better then the first pick.  How many of our star players were first rounders?</p>
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		<title>By: tom s.</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2012/05/24/the-memphis-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-67249</link>
		<dc:creator>tom s.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 May 2012 21:26:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=9260#comment-67249</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[i agree; nothing shows that there&#039;s a meaningful dropoff anywhere between pick #11 and pick #30.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>i agree; nothing shows that there&#8217;s a meaningful dropoff anywhere between pick #11 and pick #30.</p>
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		<title>By: tom s.</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2012/05/24/the-memphis-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-67248</link>
		<dc:creator>tom s.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 May 2012 21:25:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=9260#comment-67248</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[greg garcia would be the third most interesting position player at springfield, i would think.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>greg garcia would be the third most interesting position player at springfield, i would think.</p>
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		<title>By: Gruntosaurus</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2012/05/24/the-memphis-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-67236</link>
		<dc:creator>Gruntosaurus</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 May 2012 18:49:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=9260#comment-67236</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In all fairness, 2002 was a rather top-heavy draft class.  There were plenty of first rounders who have gone on to have significant major-league careers, but since the Cardinals were drafting last among all 30 teams, none would have been on the board if they&#039;d had a first-round pick.  As for the second-round giveaway, the only guy drafted in the third round (and therefore available at the end of the second) who has gone on to anything approaching stardom was Granderson.  There wasn&#039;t much else in the rest of the round.  Nor were there lots of high achievers still on the board when they finally did get a choice.  The only one I can see who was remotely predictable was Josh Johnson, and while I&#039;d certainly rather have him than the nonentity we actually drafted, that&#039;s not a lot of whiffs.  At least one whiff like that will happen each year to even the most astute talent evaluators, let alone to Maier (who, to be sure, was a lemon).

As for the business about &quot;considerable drop off between 19-25 and 25-30&quot;, you can feel that way if you want to, but saying it doesn&#039;t make it true.  In an earlier thread here, I have posted statistics over the lifetime of the draft for the probability of guys in these slots reaching the Show, and their overall contributions once they did.  The data simply do not show that &quot;considerable drop off&quot; during the last third of the first round.  If you don&#039;t believe me, go look at Baseball Prospectus; they looked at this carefully a few years ago and reached the same conclusion that I did.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In all fairness, 2002 was a rather top-heavy draft class.  There were plenty of first rounders who have gone on to have significant major-league careers, but since the Cardinals were drafting last among all 30 teams, none would have been on the board if they&#8217;d had a first-round pick.  As for the second-round giveaway, the only guy drafted in the third round (and therefore available at the end of the second) who has gone on to anything approaching stardom was Granderson.  There wasn&#8217;t much else in the rest of the round.  Nor were there lots of high achievers still on the board when they finally did get a choice.  The only one I can see who was remotely predictable was Josh Johnson, and while I&#8217;d certainly rather have him than the nonentity we actually drafted, that&#8217;s not a lot of whiffs.  At least one whiff like that will happen each year to even the most astute talent evaluators, let alone to Maier (who, to be sure, was a lemon).</p>
<p>As for the business about &#8220;considerable drop off between 19-25 and 25-30&#8243;, you can feel that way if you want to, but saying it doesn&#8217;t make it true.  In an earlier thread here, I have posted statistics over the lifetime of the draft for the probability of guys in these slots reaching the Show, and their overall contributions once they did.  The data simply do not show that &#8220;considerable drop off&#8221; during the last third of the first round.  If you don&#8217;t believe me, go look at Baseball Prospectus; they looked at this carefully a few years ago and reached the same conclusion that I did.</p>
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		<title>By: Lou Schuler</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2012/05/24/the-memphis-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-67210</link>
		<dc:creator>Lou Schuler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 May 2012 15:39:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=9260#comment-67210</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Good point about the strength of the decision-making process that&#039;s in place now. 

Was 2002 the worst draft in franchise history? Bad enough to give away our 2nd-round pick for Tino Martinez. (Don&#039;t mind losing the first rounder for Izzy.) Imagine if we had kept that pick and selected Curtis Granderson, who went 9 picks later.

But to then draft 10 guys before we get to a single guy who made it to the majors? (Reid Gorecki, the 12th rounder.)

When your 25th rounder is Kyle McClellan, and he&#039;s the best of the entire class, that&#039;s a pretty sorry performance. (Marty Maier was scouting director that year, FWIW.)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Good point about the strength of the decision-making process that&#8217;s in place now. </p>
<p>Was 2002 the worst draft in franchise history? Bad enough to give away our 2nd-round pick for Tino Martinez. (Don&#8217;t mind losing the first rounder for Izzy.) Imagine if we had kept that pick and selected Curtis Granderson, who went 9 picks later.</p>
<p>But to then draft 10 guys before we get to a single guy who made it to the majors? (Reid Gorecki, the 12th rounder.)</p>
<p>When your 25th rounder is Kyle McClellan, and he&#8217;s the best of the entire class, that&#8217;s a pretty sorry performance. (Marty Maier was scouting director that year, FWIW.)</p>
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		<title>By: zuke354</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2012/05/24/the-memphis-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-67203</link>
		<dc:creator>zuke354</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 May 2012 14:43:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=9260#comment-67203</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I disagree. There is still considerable drop off between 19-25 and 25-30. Not as big of drop off as the top, but still a measurable difference. 2002 probably illustrates this the best. 

After that , I might be more willing to agree with you. However, the cards seem to have a successful system in place. So I give a little bit more credence to their system of ranking BPA than most teams.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I disagree. There is still considerable drop off between 19-25 and 25-30. Not as big of drop off as the top, but still a measurable difference. 2002 probably illustrates this the best. </p>
<p>After that , I might be more willing to agree with you. However, the cards seem to have a successful system in place. So I give a little bit more credence to their system of ranking BPA than most teams.</p>
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		<title>By: zuke354</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2012/05/24/the-memphis-cardinals/comment-page-1/#comment-67201</link>
		<dc:creator>zuke354</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 May 2012 14:35:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=9260#comment-67201</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Bryan Anderson will probably have to waif for Free agency. If somebody wanted him, they would have picked him up by now.

I would really call it a gap. Lots of players have been promoted and there are lots of injuries. Its nice that the club can call up its own talent to fill in holes. Its also nice that we have developed a skip shumaker instead of having to go out and find a skip shumaker.

Things will change in a vit when guys start coming back from injury. Not sure if Adams will stay up, and Robinson and Chambers will probably return as well.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bryan Anderson will probably have to waif for Free agency. If somebody wanted him, they would have picked him up by now.</p>
<p>I would really call it a gap. Lots of players have been promoted and there are lots of injuries. Its nice that the club can call up its own talent to fill in holes. Its also nice that we have developed a skip shumaker instead of having to go out and find a skip shumaker.</p>
<p>Things will change in a vit when guys start coming back from injury. Not sure if Adams will stay up, and Robinson and Chambers will probably return as well.</p>
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