Carson Kelly
Westview HS, Oregon

@throwheat17 (Protected account, smart kid)

Height: 6’2″
Weight: 200 lbs
DOB: 7/14/94
Throws: R
Bats: R

Jeff’s Quick Take: First and foremost, Kelly is only 17 and doesn’t turn 18 until next month, so if anyone has seen Rany Jazayerli’s work on high school draftees, it has shown that drafting younger high school kids yields better results. We know the Cardinals have been putting this plan in action for several years and Kelly is an example of a young player who will require a big contract to sign away from Oregon. Kelly is exactly the type of young third basemen with power potential the Cardinals should be drafting. Scouting reports with videos after the jump.

MLB Scouting Report:

The top 2012 prospect from the Pacific Northwest, scouts will take a look at Kelly both as a pitcher and as a third baseman. While initially it seem led like his arm might be of more interest, it became apparent as the Draft approached that most liked his potential as a position player better. The arm that reaches 92 mph on the mound works very well from third base and he’s steady all-around as a defender. But it’s his bat that has teams eyeing him. He is strong, with a good approach at the plate and the kind of raw power teams like to see from the corner infield position. Kelly has the option to head to the University of Oregon and perhaps continue to be a two-way player, so it will be interesting to see if he goes high enough in the Draft to focus on just one craft at the professional level.

Baseball America:

Kelly, a 6-foot-2, 200-pound third baseman and pitcher, is one of the draft’s top two-way talents and Northwest scouts are divided on where he fits best. As a hitter, Kelly shows a nice line-drive swing with good loft and power potential. He’s a below-average runner, but has good mobility at third base with quick actions and a strong arm. On the mound, he sits in the 89-91 mph range with a heavy fastball. His secondary stuff needs to be tightened up, including a 78-82 mph changeup and a 73-76 curveball. Kelly has excellent maturity and will be a leader on and off the field. He is young for the class and won’t turn 18 until the day after the signing deadline.

ESPN HS Blog:

“We saw a lot of him this summer” an AL-scout said. “Each time we saw him we were impressed with the bat speed and swing mechanics, and the ball just seems to jump off the barrel. We think he can be a plus-fielder at third base as well, he’s certainly got the arm and lateral quickness to play there”

It’s not just with the bat or in the field that Kelly has excited scouts, either. “He’s a pretty exciting two-way player” an NL-Crosschecker told ESPNHS. “We’ve had him at 88-92, with a 74-77 mph curveball, pitches inside well and he gets people out.”

ESPN Profile:

Kelly is a prospect at the plate and on the mound, sitting in the upper 80′s and topping out at 92 mph with the fastball. The majority of area scouts appear to prefer him as a bat, where his swing is easy, consistent and should produce natural power. He can handle third base and could end up a candidate for left or right field if necessary. He’s known to carry himself as a leader and brings plus makeup to the table. He’ll head to the University of Oregon if the price isn’t right on the professional front, but he could go in the Top 100.

Max Preps:

However, his fastball is consistently 91-92 mph and he has clocked 97 in practice. Toss in a 73 mph changeup, an upper 70s curve and pinpoint control, a pitching career is certainly not out of the question.

If Kelly had his preference, he’d hit. However, he is equally successful on the mound or in the field, regardless of the stage.

Here’s the MLB.com scouting video:

Here’s his Baseball Factory TV video of hitting, pitching, fielding:

Baseball America’s scouting video:

21 Responses to “Round 2, Pick 86, Carson Kelly, 3B”
  1. Karmaloop says:

    Is he related to the Padres Kelly by any chance?

  2. Matt says:

    Looks like the Ramsey pick was more of a cap gaming pick than a huge reach or cheaping out. Kelly is going to be overslot.

    • Lou Schuler says:

      Makes sense.

      Wacha could be overslot as well, explaining why he dropped to 19 on the first day. Just a guess, of course. It’s probably just as plausible that teams drafting ahead of us wanted to get the high-upside HS talents while they could.

      Glad we got one of those high-upside kids. Hope we can sign him.

      • Andrew says:

        Why would we pay someone overslot that falls when they are a college junior? If they go back to school they risk losing a TON. Even if they don’t get hurt.

        • Matt says:

          Juniors go back to school or join an indy league quite a bit. Hochevar, Crow, Varitek, and of course JD Drew. Maybe even Appel.

          • Andrew says:

            But then once they are drafted as Seniors why would a team pay them slot when they have no where else to go?

            • Matt says:

              They can always threaten to go to an indy league and rejoin the draft again. The point is that all the juniors who went back that I mentioned either were picked at the same pick or earlier. They also didn’t take slot deals. The precedent exists for why Wacha would go overslot.

              • Franklin says:

                There’s precedent, but aren’t those players the exception rather than the rule? Wacha does not have the same draft pedigree that those players did at the time, and I’d be hard pressed to believe that he slid because of bonus demands.

  3. sportsman says:

    Well, how will we survive with only 3 3rd basemen in the first 2 rounds?

  4. Shanky says:

    Okay, now that’s what I’m talking about. I can rationalize this draft now. . .getting Kelly at this spot and overdrafting Ramsey makes sense.

  5. Mark says:

    Offer him slot money, if he doesn’t take it – it will leave us with some money for a reach player a little later in the draft.

    • chuckb says:

      He’s the reach player. He’s why we took Russell. If we offer him slot $ here, we’ll lose him and the dollars allocated to the slot and will be offering a lesser player more than slot $ later. That makes no sense whatsoever.

  6. chuckb says:

    This is a good pick, the best pick we’ve made yet. I’m not saying he’s the best player — Wacha surely is — but Kelly is the best pick relative to draft slot. BA had Kelly, I think, at #46 and we got him at #86. He’s a young, high-ceiling guy who really has room to grow. Very excited about picking Kelly.

    • Bob says:

      John Sickels had Carson K. at #40 on his top 100 list, too. Great pick.

      The kid, as others have mentioned, is just 17 and *could* switch to the mound if his potential power bat doesn’t pan out.

      Nothing is gonna make up for the low ceiling picks at 36 & 52 (I keep bumpin’ my head!), but this is at least a start.

  7. Uncle Randy says:

    17? That kid looks 14, max.

    Love the pick though, its about damn time.

  8. felonius_monk says:

    Finally! I can live with the ramseys and wisdoms now we’ve got a nice upside pick. Guessing he’ll need overslot money too. Not my personal favourite HS guy, but then I’m far from an expert and I think you’ve got to trust our scouting, on recent evidence.

  9. cariocacardinal says:

    Interesting that the most vocal of those advocating drafting high upside players where we probably have to go over slot to sign are silent here!

  10. Andrew says:

    I posted. Not about him. I had a finally feeling here. Same with Trey Williams but that’s more of a longshot. Quality pick. Glad we took him as a 3rd baseman as it’s doubtful he would sign as a pitcher.

  11. nmstar says:

    This is the first pick I really like. Huzzah!

  12.  
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