Short day with rather unattractive starts for both pitchers. Two middle infielders headline the position players.
- Ryan Jackson was 2-for-4 with a double and a walk.
- Jaime Romak was 3-for-5.
- Eugenio Velez was 3-for-5.
- Shelby Miller pitched 5 innings allowing 4 runs on 7 hits. He struck out 5 and walked 2 allowing 2 home runs. Not to excuse the somewhat tepid results Miller has gotten or the reports of decreased velocity but if I was playing on a team where the lineup featured one prospect (Jackson), I’d be bored and uninspired as well. I have a hard time getting worked up over Miller’s performance in Memphis given the team that Memphis is fielding.
- Jess Todd pitched a scoreless 1 hit, 1 strikeout inning. I never really understood why other teams gave up on Todd so quickly. It looks like there is still something there with 30 strikeouts in 28 innings and just 6 walks.
- Starlin Rodriguez was 2-for-3 with a home run and a walk. Rodriguez (22) is hitting .310/.391/.443 in the Florida State League. He’s arguably the best hitter on the team but certainly the best position prospect considering he plays second base.
- Brad Watson was torched for 7 runs on 6 hits in 5.1 innings. He walked 3 and struck out 5.
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With the weakest position on the major league team being 2nd base we suddenly have a plethora of 2nd base candidates in the minor league system.
With the selection of Jacob Wilson at 2B I’m not sure if he could handle 2B because he is so stout but who knows with Dan Uggla. But Wilson can sure hit for power and AVG. Not much tools but he can hit let’s hope for another sleeper pick in him.
the new luna?
Todd was great when he blew through AA a few years ago, but if you look at his splits closely he just hasn’t found a way to consistently get more advanced hitting lefties out. While he could likely be reasonably effective at the MLB level against righties, average ROOGY’s simply aren’t that hard to find. One encouraging thing about this year’s numbers (which still aren’t good against southpaws) is that at least he is striking them out at a good rate. Lefties are still hitting over 350 against him. That unfortunately isn’t an aberration (actually better than last year if memory serves), but is in line with his results from the last few years at AAA.
I really liked Todd but I’m afraid I think it might be kinda time to give up on him. Isn’t this about his 4th go around AAA? Hope he gets to be a mop-up guy somewhere for a few years mind you.
Miller’s HR/FB% is just silly high….that has to normalize at some point, right?
I have a very difficult time buying into this notion that it’s okay for Miller to be “bored” or “uninspired” just because the surrounding cast doesn’t look good on paper.
If that’s the case, then he is costing his team wins. That uninspiring supporting cast put up 4 runs. Miller, if he’s pitching less than what he is capable of, lost the game for the team.
With each game that passes, he is making himself look worse and worse. And what’s going to happen at the MLB level if he struggles is people are not going to give him the benefit of the doubt. He’s not preparing himself for the next level. If you want to call the labels unfair? Fine. But you just made an excuse for him by saying it’s okay. It’s not.
Honestly, if he’s “bored” then what happens when the Cardinals fall 10 games back in September? He sure as hell won’t put the team on his back like Carpenter did and that has nothing to do with talent.
Personally, I’d like to think it’s something else. I’ve yet to hear anyone really explain the weight loss but that seems more to me to be a factor. I don’t remember him getting “bored” at any other level.
If he’s bored, he really needs to be a little more forward thinking. Garcia’s floundering and may be hurt. If so, the team is going to need a starter before Carpenter returns. If he puts it together — and it’s probably too late if Garcia is hurt — it could be him getting the call. Otherwise, it’ll be Kelly. My guess is that there’s some other problem. He surely, based on his spring, is able to see that he could, presumably, get the call this summer. With that in mind, I really doubt that boredom is the main culprit at this point.
Seriously, making an excuse for Shelby Miller as being “bored” is high comedy. He’s been mediocre and does not deserve to be in AAA.
yeah, stop taking all those innings from brian broderick, shelby miller!
I don’t think he has anything else to learn at AA and I really don’t think demoting him would be very good for his mindset. It’s been a tough couple of months but he needs to face adversity to get better. FWIW I’m still not sure either of his secondary pitches are real high-end weapons in the majors. His curve is pretty good but I think a little more seasoning at AAA can only do him good.
Could not agree more!! Lot’s more good arms stacking up behind him now. He needs to get his act together before it’s too late.
Couldn’t agree more. Miller is simply proving that he’s not that close to the majors. He alone can fix what ails him. Either that or he wins a mini career at AAA.
seriously…the hr/fb% is way high
I must admit to having had an unnatural crush on both Ryan Jackson and Joe Kelly for years. Hopefully Jackson is making himself into the hitter he needs to be in order to hold down the every day SS job as soon as he’s needed.
That could end up being a sneaky good draft if Swagerty comes back healthy next year. I think they took Matt Carpenter that year as well didn’t they? Or was he the year before?
That said, I do kinda worry that Jackson’s run a pretty high BABIP in the minors. I like him but I can’t ever see him as more than a fringey major league shortstop (1-2 WAR guy tops) I’m afraid. Hope he proves me wrong.
Swagerty was 2010 (2nd round, 4th off the board behind Cox, Jenkins, Blair). 2009 brought us Miller (1), Jackson (5), Kelly (3), Carpenter (13), as well as Adams (23) and Rosenthal (21).
Yes, we have resuscitated the Miller is bored debate without any confirmation that I have seen that he ever said that he was bored.
Put me in the worried column where Miller is concerned. His results so far this year are not reflective of the top flight power arm he appeared to be last year. I hope the organization can figure out what is wrong with him and get it turned around because he does not appear to be going in the right direction.
His top-flight power arm is still striking out more batters and getting as many groundballs as it did last year.
I think Miller will be okay. We have to remember that he is only 21 years old and in AAA.
If you had told me in 2009 when we drafted Shelby that he would be in AAA in 2012 at age 21 with k/9 greater than 9, I would have been ecstatic.
No doubt in my mind that he’s really grinding out there. He’s not going out there and trying to be mediocre. He’s not trying to give up home runs. He’s trying to grow as a pitcher and leave that “thrower” label behind. We all know that Shelby wants to be the best. He wants to dominate at every level he pitches at, but especially at the MLB level. I think he realizes that he must improve as a “pitcher” in order to do that and is really working on it. Of course he’s not ready yet. Not many 21 year-old pitchers are. But I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and allow him to work through his struggles before giving up on him like so many others seem to be doing. We aren’t sending him to AA because he’s too good for that level as he showed last season. He’s not yet good enough for the MLB so we aren’t calling him up. He’s making adjustments at AAA and before long he’ll probably prove a lot of short-sighted people wrong. This is what the minor leagues are for.
First of all, I’ve not run across anyone here that has given up on Miller.
While you point out that he is young and is striking out a lot of hitters, you seem to have an issue with people talking about this “bored” label, wherever it came from yet you make a lot of assumptions yourself in saying that he’s “grinding out there”. Aside from knowing what that actually means, I’m not sure you could even know that unless you were at the games and talking with him. Stats aren’t going to tell you he’s “grinding”.
Nevertheless, I’d say most who are concerned are concerned with his reported velocity being more than a tic below what is normal for him. Home run rates might be high and his strikeouts look good too, but, along with the lowered velo, he’s not pitching very deep into games. These are things that should more than raise an eyebrow. These point in the direction of “something isn’t right”, but no one is quite sure what the deal is yet.
It’s not like some didn’t see this coming. He choose to go after results in lower levels and not focus on developing effective secondary pitches. Now he’s pitching in AAA against guys who have seen MLB pitching before without a second pitch and with a fastball that while still having outstanding life he doesn’t locate well enough and is throwing slower than before.
Yes…this.
He needs to fail some. He is not the first starter called up. He needs some fucking motivation to work on other things. If he doesnt show it, then we can trade him as far as I care.
I have to second these thoughts. The only thing that bothers me is the apparent loss of velocity. That aside, I expected a regression this year. The whole “bored” thing strikes me as hearsay BS – and I really don’t think it should be given the time of day unless someone can point to where Shelby said something like this. Given Miller’s ST results and the controversies at the end of last season, I really thought Miller would start at AA. Folks thought I was dogging him – I wasn’t. As far as I know, Miller is a stud. He’s young and doing the best that he can. A little patience is in order IMO.
The bored thing started from Keith Law who said he must be bored as his only explaination of why he’s struggling so much. Control and secondary pitches are why he’s struggling so much.
Of course, that was speculation of one person spitballing. ‘Cause this is the Internet, speculation became assumption, which has became fact.
And also ’cause this is the Internet, too many people took azru’s comment far too seriously.
I can buy the he’s working on things or he’s learning how to pitch argument for a period of time but after a month and a half I would hope that his results would begin to reflect positively on the things he has been working on.
My thinking is that when you add something new to your arsenal it should make you better eventually, right? Now perhaps I am being a bit impatient but four bad starts in a row will do that to you.
I mean we are talking about a guy with number 1 starter potential here. Being worried about him reaching that potential is not the same as giving up on him.
Apparently he’s still bored at AAA.
Two points:
1) His HR rate is insanely high. If one were to normalize that to league average, his FIP would be a lot better. Expect a regression.
2) Out of all pitchers with min 50 IP in AAA, Miller has the sixth highest K/9. And he’s the YOUNGEST of the top 30. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1104948
Pitchers who don’t pitch well have high HR rates.
all his other peripherals are good…high k rate, lowish walk rate…below league average LD%…astronomical BABIP and HR/FB%…he will regress to mean
this was the constant refrain regarding joe kelly last year at springfield, despite the fact that his only problem was the HR rate. kelly’s doing fine at AAA this year.
somehow, miller managed to give up only 2 homers in 84 innings at springfield, so it’s not like he’s perpetually homer prone.
And the reason he may not be “pitching well” and giving up a lot of home runs may be that he’s trying to develop the secondary pitches and leaving too many of them hanging. Let’s have some patience, folks. Give the kid some time to develop. In the greater scheme of things, if it takes him all this year and even all next year to get things worked out at AAA, so what. The likelihood is he’ll still be an excellent big league starter, even if he doesn’t arrive as fast as we would like.
As regards Miller, as others have mentioned, his HR rate and BABIP are insanely high while the rest of his rate stats are pretty much in line with what he usually does.
For example, take a look at this:
Miller @ AA (20 years old) 86.2 IP; 9.24 K/9; 3.43 BB/9; 0.21 HR/9; 2.73 FIP
Player X @ AA (22 years old) 126.1 IP; 6.98 K/9; 3.63 BB/9; 0.36 HR/9; 3.47 FIP
Miller @ AAA (21 years old) 57.1 IP; 9.89 K/9; 4.08 BB/9; 1.88 HR/9; 5.29 FIP
Player X @ AAA (23 years old) 164 IP; 7.74 K/9; 3.40 BB/9; 1.15 HR/9; 4.43 FIP
Small sample size, true, but it does lend to the idea that despite rate stats staying pretty much the same, it’s rather easy for a pitcher’s HR rate to spike at AAA in the PCL. Player X is now in the big leagues with a HR/9 of 0.53 for the year, and his name is Lance Lynn. I say let Shelby spend the rest of the season in AAA, then give him a September call up and a chance to earn a rotation spot next season.
In defense, Miller has had some tough parks to pitch in, quite different from Texas League (didn’t he grew up there and used to that hot heavy air in TL summer).
Yes others have had too as well and done better, but they pitch differently. He throws a deceptive FB, which is easier for the more mature hitters. How he learns to adjust will prove how good he is.
I also believe that he should have started in AA, but that most likely would have prevented Rosenthal from starting there. That’s not a knock, I do believe springfield has the better environment.
Lance Lynn struggled his first season in AAA. In fact he was quite miserable as he was used to dominating and he was not.
Some things have a way of working themselves out.
Agreed. The other thing I want to point out on the pitchcounts…..I believe Miller’s high K/9 rate works against him in pitchcounts. If a pitcher isn’t just dominating (think Cy Young winner of your choice), then a strike-out will usually take a minimum of 5 pitches and after a few foul balls, the count can easily exceed that. I have no numbers to back me up, but I wouldn’t be surprised if AAA hitters who theoretically don’t get themselves out as much as AA hitters, plow through all kinds of pitches before striking out if the pitcher is hittable (as it appears Miller is so far this year).
This is just an attempt to reconcile Miller’s high K rate with his low IP per start. FWIW, I believe Rosie has the same issues. I know his goal is 3 pitches per batter – that clearly conflicts with a goal of a high K rate. His last outing he had 8K’s – super – but he was at 87 pitches after 6 IP and he was as dominating as I have seen him. It isn’t just minor league guys either. I saw Verlander pitch a complete and dominating game earlier this year – 131 pitches.