Comments on: Round 12, Pick 390: Max Foody, LHP

By: Karmaloop

Karmaloop — Sun, 10 Jun 2012 06:00:52 +0000

Good luck getting him to skip on Oregon for slot. He fell because of rumored demands (I heard two million), not because he went where he was supposed to go.

By: Mrs. TLR

Mrs. TLR — Sat, 09 Jun 2012 12:36:02 +0000

Wisdom signed for $275,000 beneath the norm for where picked. The Cards took a guy whose talent rank was 160 and elevated him in the draft. Both sides benefited. Wisdom got a lot more bonus than if drafted at 160, while the Cards got bonus relief too, gaining an extra $275,000 to use on Trey Williams or some other kid below the 10th round.
The bottom line is the Cards have bonus money available to sign their draftees.

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Sat, 09 Jun 2012 12:13:46 +0000

Actually Winkler was 105 on BA’s list

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/?srch=byNatRank&top=500&submit=Search

He was also way ahead of Williams on both of these list

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/5/17/3024055/2012-mlb-draft-board-5-17-12?login=1337297399

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=draft

Rumor is that Alford (drafted by the Blue Jays) will sign for about $850K He is ranked higher than Williams everywhere and has the football leverage on top of his college baseball leverage.

Another interesting note is that most #1 picks are signing below slot – Correa, zZimmer, Cecchini, Roache. Coulter signed for slot.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Sat, 09 Jun 2012 05:14:12 +0000

You were talking about bonus position based on how they were ranked. Winker was BA’s 159 I think while Williams was 99 and that was iwth his stock being low. I thought you were assuming bonus based on rating not draft position.

By: Mrs. TLR

Mrs. TLR — Sat, 09 Jun 2012 04:30:53 +0000

Andrew, I just looked up Winkler. I had assumed he was 11th round, since you mentioned him. However, Winkler went 49th. Given his drafting position, he is going to command what 49th entitles him too. He got a bonus apt for the 49th selection. This is fair and not a surprise.

However, Williams did not gain the advantage of being selected up high at 49. He went down around 360 and this is $100,000 territory for many a high schooler. However, Williams can get a much higher bonus, on talent. He fell in the draft well below his talent, maybe because he was asking for more bonus money than teams wanted to give him on talent. Or maybe teams are dubious of his attitude. The Cards should be willing to offer him $481,000, fair for his scouting rank. He is not Austin Wilson, with a Stanford education waiting. Williams may sign. Its pretty unlikely the Cards would double up on $481K.

By: Mrs. TLR

Mrs. TLR — Sat, 09 Jun 2012 04:18:19 +0000

Our 7th rounder should get $15,000, because a senior. This is what Allen Craig got in the 8th round coming out of U Cal, 6 years ago.
Seniors do not have leverage and teams dictate their bonus. The overall bonus ceilings for teams under the new CBA escalated the drafting of seniors as a smart way to use limited funds.

You make a good point, if Winkler commanded $1MM. He is comparable to Williams. It will be interesting to see how high the Cards go to land Trey Williams. It should be higher than $481,000, to be fair to Williams by factoring the bonus given Winkler. The Cards could factor the Reds overpaid Winkler and offer say $700,000. Its doubtful we would give Williams $1MM, because its double his bonus value.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Sat, 09 Jun 2012 03:59:57 +0000

The reason that Williams and Foody are past the 10th round is because of the new CBA and teams not wanting to lose any of the allotted amount. That is why a guy like our 7th rounder will probably get 10k. Jesse Winker who was rated below Williams just got 1 million dollars. If Williams is going to sign it’s going to be for more t han 400k.

By: Mrs. TLR

Mrs. TLR — Sat, 09 Jun 2012 03:53:24 +0000

A lot of bonus stuff more precise than you assume. There is vertical ranking of the players. Foody has already had labrum surgery, which diminishes his ranking, which was down around 330 to 340. This is down in $100,000 bonus territory.

Rumor about first round consideration is just repertorial hype. Foody went in the draft at about what his talent warrants. He is 10th to 12th round talent.

We would like to get Foody signed. Because he has an offer from Florida State, we might have to go up a ways, maybe $150,000. But the Cards would lose face to offer him $400,000 and earn a reputation as easy to bluff. We should put a realistic and fair price tag on him and then Mr. Foody chooses what to do.

By: Mrs. TLR

Mrs. TLR — Sat, 09 Jun 2012 03:43:54 +0000

Kelly was 43rd in talent rank. The bonus guidance for 43 is $1.2MM, so Felonious was in the ballpark on Kelly.

The bonus for Williams should be about $481,000. If he makes more, he has done well in negotiation.

Foody is not a comparable talent. He was ranked in the mid 300s, much lower. The Cards may offer about $120,000.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Sat, 09 Jun 2012 03:39:15 +0000

That’s where I disagree. The guy was getting 1st round consideration going into the year. He didn’t have as good a season as expected but did show that he could still throw after the shoulder issues las tyear. He’s a 6’4 lefty who could very easily be a number 2 starter for FSU next year. I think 400k is about right for what it would take to sign him.