What (If Anything) Is Wrong With Shelby Miller?
Posted on June 8th, 2012 by Jeff in shelby miller, tags: shelby miller(azruavatar note: This post was written on 6/1 and … then the draft happened. It’s my fault, not Jeff’s, that it didn’t run pre-draft and now I’m working to unbacklog some posts. Any stats in this post are prior to his most recent start on June 5th. I hope to complete — and update — draft recaps this weekend. Apologies for the delays.)
Keith Law reported recently that it seems like Shelby Miller seems “bored” in AAA and his fastball has moved down to more of an average pitch in the 90-93 MPH range as opposed to the plus pitch that he had been sporting in the recent past. I’m not going to speculate on that, but instead take a look at his numbers and see what they can tell us.
|
Year |
Tm |
BF |
IP |
ERA |
FIP |
SIERA |
GB% |
LD% |
K% |
BB% |
HR/9 |
BB/9 |
K/9 |
|
2011 |
MiLB Total |
574 |
139.7 |
2.77 |
2.38 |
2.84 |
39.7% |
17.7% |
29.7% |
9.2% |
0.26 |
3.42 |
10.95 |
|
2012 |
Memphis |
226 |
49.3 |
4.38 |
4.68 |
3.50 |
35.6% |
13.4% |
24.3% |
8.8% |
1.64 |
3.65 |
10.03 |
|
2012 |
Lg. Average |
- |
- |
4.71 |
4.12 |
4.24 |
42.4% |
19.0% |
18.1% |
8.4% |
0.92 |
3.32 |
7.14 |
|
Year |
Tm |
PA |
BABIP |
HR/OFB |
HR/Con |
LD |
GB |
OFB |
IFB |
Bunt |
U |
|
2011 |
MiLB Total |
573 |
.320 |
3.8% |
1.2% |
61 |
137 |
104 |
33 |
6 |
4 |
|
2012 |
Memphis |
226 |
.382 |
15.3% |
6.2% |
20 |
53 |
59 |
11 |
4 |
2 |
|
2012 |
Lg. Average |
- |
.322 |
11.5% |
3.3% |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(All numbers via Minor League Central)
The top line in each table is Shelby Miller’s numbers from 2011 across two levels (A and AA). The second line is his numbers from this season in AAA Memphis. The last line is the average numbers for the Pacific Coast League.
Let’s start with the obvious; his BABIP is .060 higher than league average. His HR/9 is higher than average and much higher than last year and his HR/OFB is 4% higher than average. He is running into some bad luck. Miller is not what most people would call a ground ball pitcher. He’s a power pitcher that allows a sizeable portion of balls in play to be hit in the air. That being said, his GB% and OFB% are not wildly out of whack from his career norms. The flyballs should start to stay in the park more often and help his numbers greatly.
Let’s look at the peripherals, namely strikeouts and walks and see if that has changed at all. His K/9 has dropped almost 1 from his 2011 in A/AA. However, the elevation to AAA and tougher competition can account for that and the fact that Miller has his K/9 still over 10 is a great sign. His BB/9 hasn’t changed much at all from 2011 and sits roughly at average for his league
In fact, Statcorner has Shelby Miller with a 106 tRA+ which is a park and defensive neutral stat indicating where a player stands within his league. In this case, 100 being average, Miller is just above average. Is that enough for the Cardinals number 1 prospect? No, probably not. Is that enough for a 21-year old in triple-A? Maybe.
Let’s look a little bit closer at the numbers to see what kind of results his pitches are getting.
|
Year |
Tm |
PA |
NP |
P/PA |
Str |
Ball |
SSwng |
SLook |
Foul |
SMiss |
BIP |
Swng% |
Con% |
|
2011 |
MiLB Total |
573 |
1406 |
2.45 |
907 |
499 |
678 |
229 |
290 |
159 |
229 |
48.2% |
76.5% |
|
2012 |
Memphis |
226 |
894 |
3.96 |
573 |
321 |
408 |
165 |
183 |
76 |
149 |
45.6% |
81.4% |
|
2012 |
Lg. Average |
- |
- |
3.71 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
45.8% |
79.7% |
This chart has a lot of good information including the percentage of swings and misses he is getting against the contact that the batter is generating. Miller is about average percentage of swings on his pitches, but that number is down from his numbers last season. For me, it is the contact percentage that is the most intriguing in this chart. Miller is giving up above league average (in a hitter’s league already) and a 5% jump in the percentage of swings a batter makes contact on. Let’s break this down. Miller throws a pitch and 45% of the time the batter swings. In that 45% of a time when a batter swings, they make contact with the pitch 81% of the time. That means that Miller is generating swings and misses only 19% of the time. That is also reflected in the Pitches per Plate Appearance, which he is throwing on average 1.5 pitches more per batter than last year. More contact, more fouls and more pitches.
If you are still with me, let’s dig into some “grain of salt” numbers. As in, you should take them with a grain of salt, but they are interesting none the less.
|
Year |
Tm |
PA |
NP |
OSwng% |
ZSwng |
OCon% |
ZCon% |
Zone% |
SwStr% |
|
2011 |
MiLB Total |
573 |
1406 |
7.4% |
73.6% |
27.5% |
79.6% |
61.7% |
74.8% |
|
2012 |
Memphis |
226 |
894 |
2.7% |
70.7% |
66.7% |
81.7% |
63.1% |
71.2% |
|
2012 |
Lg. Average |
- |
- |
9.7% |
71.1% |
43.2% |
83.1% |
58.8% |
72.9% |
Triple-A Memphis does not have Pitch-FX like the majors does and there is no Brooks Baseball for the minor league set. So, there is a person indicating what was in the strike zone and what was not. Hence, the grain of salt. It is unwise to look too closely comparing different leagues so I won’t talk much about comparing 2011 to 2012, but I’ll leave it in the table up there for your enjoyment. All that aside, Miller’s percentage of balls swung at outside the strike zone (OSwng%) is way down from league average. He’s not fooling anyone outside the zone. In fact, he’s allowing an insane amount of contact outside the zone (OCon%) at 66.7% which is 20% higher than league average. His percentage of balls thrown in the strike zone (Zone%) is above average which shows that he can get the ball into the strike zone when he needs to and he’s better than average in making players miss within the strikezone. Obviously, this is comparing apples and oranges, but his ZCon% of 81.7% would be the best on the St. Louis Cardinals major league staff. (As would his Zone%) The OSwing% is so low, I’m inclined to throw it out. However, I’m tempted to look at his 2011 OSwing% that is also shockingly low and draw conclusions on the fact that the kid doesn’t get a lot of swings and misses outside the zone. But, no I said I wasn’t going to do that and I won’t.
This is the point where I’m supposed to come up with a conclusion about Shelby Miller and his status and his so-called struggles in Memphis. His numbers aren’t exactly what you want from a future number 1 pitcher, but I wouldn’t go so far to call his situation “struggles”. They may have some struggle element to them versus his previous smooth sailing, but it seems like he will be just fine. His numbers are do for some regression to the mean in the balls in play and home run rate, but Shelby Miller continues to not only miss bats, but pile up the strikeouts despite the not so pleasant numbers. Additionally, he continues to show the ability to throw strikes and avoid walks. If he can continue to do that, more often than not good things will happen – he just happens to be in the ‘not’ portion. He’s still a future major leaguer, but we will probably have to wait until 2013 to see him in action in St. Louis.
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I think the diet issue came into play. It stands to reason that his velocity was hampered as well as his stamina as the coaching staff feared. The arm, on the other hand, appears sound.
The only thing about this is the staff worried that it would effect him later on in the year but he has had these problems from day 1.
His fastball is still the big question for me. I wish we had some explanation for what is going on with his velocity. It does not seem like it is common for pitchers to have their velocity dip at age 21, is it?
I realize he can be a very good pitcher throwing 90-93 but it seem like a couple miles an hour in velocity can mean the difference between being a good pitcher or a great pitcher.
And a much smaller margin for error!
I agree there are no red flags waving here, but the velocity issue is the crux of the mystery as far as i am concerned. I was also under the impression that he had a plus curveball coming into this year, and I think I misunderstood that. I think maybe scouts “projected” the possibility of a plus curveball. Andrew, who has watched Miller pitch a number of times, is of the opinion that his curveball is not a plus pitch. If Miller is sitting at 91 without a plus secondary pitch, then his getting knocked around a bit would seem to be expected IMO. I expect he will continue to positively develop, but for the first time I’m starting to wonder about the “ace” label.
I’m in agreement with the above. Shelby reached AAA on the strength of his fastball. If Shelby is going to become the pitcher he is projected to become, he must further develop his secondary offerings. The potential exists to add a new pitch as well, see Wainwright’s and Garcia’s cutters. I think a move to the MLB bullpen late summer could be beneficial ala Waino/Lynn. Such a move would mandate that he focus on attacking hitters and figuring out what works at the MLB level. Before moving to the bullpen in 2006, Wainwright put up similar numbers to Miller in 2005 at Memphis, (although both the stikeout and walk numbers were lower). A similar patch could be ahead of Shelby if he puts in the time and effort to get there.
Let’s hope that having his Buddy Joe Kelly get the call before him motive him further and make him work harder.
I think the best (and most optimistic) example of a pitcher losing his velocity in the minors, it is Madison Bumgarner. Everyone was really worried about him for a bit, and his velocity I believe took a bigger hit than Miller’s. I think without evidence of arm issues, the velocity fluxuations for a guy this young is nothing to be too worried about.
i just pointed out over on VEB that goold noted two weeks ago that his velocity was back in the 93-95 mph range. do we have any recent statements on his velocity?
Well, if that is true then it is interesting that his last four starts have been worse then his earlier starts.
Sure do pray u r rite arkneep.. I he could see STL later this summer then we may have the answer..
The fastball velocity has me absolutely miffed. If it were an injury that were the cause, you would have thought you would have heard it by now. And if it were a matter of him coming into camp not in shape, you would have figured that by the 12th start he would have been in shape. I heard reports that he was touching 94-95 MPH in last start, but nothing confirmed.
As for his numbers, the home run rate is what is alarming. It’s more than 3 times larger than any other season in his career. The second highest was 0.6 which was in 2010 while at Quad Cities. Combine that with his elevated walk rate and higher BABIP, and it seems like he is just not getting the calls he would have gotten otherwise. And watching some of those MILB GameCast’s, it seems like those borderline calls seem to go the hitters’ way. Now, I don’t really have anything to back it up since I haven’t seen him in person.
home run rates are extremely variable. kelly gave up 8 last season, and he’s only give up 2 so far this season, and 3 in 2010. shelby has 11 this season, versus 4 last year, and 7 the year before. i wouldn’t invest much in using a single season HR rate in evaluating a prospect. the skill of the batters you’re facing, the stadiums you’re pitching in, etc. can dramatically affect your HR rate because you’re talking about such a small number in the first place.
Any word if a pitcher will be promoted to Memphis to take Kelly’s rotation spot? I’m wondering perhaps it will be Rosenthal.
I think Shelby’s expectations where set a little too high also, I don’t think he will ever be that ace pitcher, I think Jenkins and Martinez have better chance to be aces I think they have better stuff, but miller could be a #2 or above average inning eater which is still very valuable. I think Jenkins has the highest celing of our pitchers and I think people will come around to that idea more within a year.
Does the lack of swinging strikes outside the zone imply that he might be tipping his curve and people are just laying off it? Are advanced hitters just sitting dead red (which fits the AAAA profile of AAA hitters who can’t hit MLB movement) and laying off anything else, which probably frequently ends up out of the zone?
Interestingly, if that is the case, his fastball is still better at getting in zone swinging strikes with everyone sitting on it than the AAA average. Maybe he needs a cameo in the majors to really develop his secondary pitches.* Maybe his FB is actually a plus pitch even at lower velocity.
*the problem being that I have not actually knowledge of the quality of his secondary pithces, I am just accepting the theory that they are lagging in development and neglected somewhat in favor of his results-generating fastball.
Well, I hinted at it before, but I’m saying it now. Rosenthal has passed Miller as a prospect…as has Taveras.
Seriously? Miller put up better numbers at AA. Adam Wainwright posted a 4.40 era/1.41 whip at Memphis in 2005. Premature to write off Miller right now. Still one of the top 5 starting pitching prospects in baseball.
Seriously. That Miller outpitched Rosie at Springfield is a myth IMO. My last post below shows some numbers. You can cherrypick numbers – Miller was better in walks allowed, worse in ERA, worse in Batting Avg Against, worse in groundball rate, better in SO’s per 9, worse in WHIP (that’s a key differentiator for me). So pick whatever numbers you want, but the idea that Miller was better last year at Springfield than Rosie is this year (to date) just isn’t true IMO.
There is a ton of poorly thought out pessimism on Miller. People are vastly overreacting to a fairly modest setback to a pitcher who is in Memphis at an age not much older than Martinez (who is just now approaching his Springfield debut), and not much younger than Rosenthal who is walking too many guys down in Springfield. Jenkins is having a pretty mediocre year at quad cities.
Expecting even a top-notch prospect to conquer AAA without a hiccup is unreasonable. Backing off a consensus #1 spot for Shelby just because of minor setbacks partway through the season seems premature. He’s performing on a tougher stage than anyone his age in our system.
For me it’s not the results, it’s a combo of the results with issues/rumors about coachability, attitude and an effective secondardy pitch. The way that I’ve heard it described is entitled.
Your right it’s a bit to expect a guy to go through AAA without a hiccup. It is reasonable to want your top prospect to listen to coaches and the organization and work to develop as a pitcher and not just a thrower. It’s also reasonable to want him to get with the weight program he was given after last year.
Essentially, I see this year as him reaping what he sowed the last few years being so hesistant to throw more curves and changes to develop as a pitcher. I get he wants to win. But Rosenthal was able to get on the program of developin as a pitcher AND winning at QC and he’s benefiting from thatnow.
Maybe we have to define “pessimism about Miller”. Am I concerned he will never be a viable part of a MLB rotation? No. Can he be a MLB staff ace? I’m starting to wonder. I also now view Rosenthal ahead of Miller, and I’m not saying it is so much Miller (as I have said, I expected regression this year), Rosenthal has developed faster IMO. Rosenthal has a bigger fastball and he has a bigger curve and his change is ok and sometimes very good. I’m not a scout, but I would say Rosie’s curve is either a plus or will be. That’s either 2 plus pitches or close to 2 plus pitches with the change and cutter average. As best I can tell, at this time (in other words, it most certainly can change), Miller doesn’t have any plus pitches. You don’t have to agree with my grading, but that is why I see Rosenthal ahead of Miller. CMart has the potential to be better than both, but I rank him behind Miller because I believe he has durability issues which may relegate him to elite closer – but that ain’t bad! Yes, Rosie has too many walks, but it was skewed by one outing where I believe he walked 6 in four innings. He is still walking more than he should, but lack of control is not his history, and I don’t see them as part of his future. Last night he walked only one with 7 SO’s and only gave up 3 hits. I haven’t looked lately, but I would guess his “batting average against” is among the lowest in the minors. I’m sure it is below .200 as it was .197 before he only gave up 6 hits over his last 13 innings.
It’s currently at .189. If you look at Rosie’s stats over his has ten games, it isn’t going to be any surprise if he heads to Beale Street this year. Even with too many walks, his WHIP for the year is 1.15 and he ranks #3 in the league in ERA – Gast is #2.
Just as a comparison with Miller’s time in Springfield (who everyone agrees had a spectacular year last year) – Miller’s WHIP was 1.21 and his batting average against was .229. I understand that Miller was a year younger, but for comparison purposes, that is as close as I can get between Miller and Rosenthal……..unless you want to look at the small sample size of ST this year where Rosie clearly performed better. We won’t know anything for sure until Rosie is pitching on Miller’s level. I have said it before, I think he heads up after the all-star break. It’s hard for me to imagine he isn’t on the TX League North all-star squad.
There are some hidden negatives regarding Rosenthal. His BABIP is .238 vs a league average of .305. This is despite his LD rate being higher than the league avg and his ground ball rate being below the league average. As a result his SIERA is actually below league average. His FIP is slightly below league average but I’d guess his xFIP is league average or above (didn’t check) given his low HR rate. That still makes him a pretty good pitcher for his age but not that great on an overall basis.
Along with his walk rate, the biggest concern with Rosie would seem to be his declining GB rate. IF there is a reason for him to stay in AA and not move up to replace Kelly it would be his need to work on that.
If you are concerned about Rosies GB rate, then must be terrified of Millers. And as I have noted before, based on Rosie’s BB history, chances are this is an aberration, not the rule. His BB rate has declined lately. I am not really qualified to critique various forms of advanced statistics, but I will give it my best shot. BABIP seems like a stat that is much more reliable with hitters than it is with pitchers. Having a pitcher that is very good with a league average BABIP doesn’t strike me as accurate. The best pitchers should have a lower BABIP as Rosie does. I understand guys on base. Rosie is at 1.15 – not bad, and very good given the couple of high walk starts he had. Walks can be controlled by him. I assume he will continue to decrease those as he has, and his WHIP will fall further. Rosie has given up 3 HR’s. I saw two of them. One was to a MLB hitter with 126 MLB HR’s (and he had no idea who he was), and the other was on a guy (IMO) that guessed right – it wasn’t a bad pitch – the decision to pitch it where he did made it a bad pitch.
So, while I probably have Rosie colored glasses, I’m not sure your conclusion that he is not that great on an overall basis is accurate.
Actually BABIP has been shown to be fairly consistant among all pitchers but varies more amongst individual hitters.
Your view of Rosenthal only works if you discount his BB rates. I can’t do that. As far as I know there is no evidence that this is something that depends on some type of luck and normalizes over time. It may not be his norm in the past but it is for this season and any good stats (such as low HR rates) may be coming from him nibbling too much this year.
I don’t like Miller’s GB rates but I’m not talking about Miller. I have never made a comparison of the two. But GB rates are more important to pitchers with high walk rates and less important to pitchers with high K rates. SIERA takes some of that in to account as well as BABIP. By measures such as SIERA (which I believe has shown to be the best predictor of future ERA) Miller was way better than Rosenthal at AA and is still better than Rosenthal this year (comparing AAA vs. AA stats).
I feel confident that a good case for ROsie only being around league average this year can be easily made. Again, I am more than happy with him being league average given skipping PB and his age. It just needs to be put in perspective though.
Carioca-How do you explain away Rosie’s lower walk rate and high GB average last year? Did he suddenly because a different type of pitcher?
I dont know, you tell me. I have no doubt that a statistical analysis would show that the change from year to year has been more than large enough to rule out random variation. That would leave something systematically changing. What that is I have no idea.
You are comparing statistics over 152 innings (QC and JC and doesn’t include 2 exceptional play-off games) against a sample of 66 innings and in the same breath saying it can’t be a statistical variation AND while admitting that he is in fact trending back toward his past historical norms. You are just reaching here while arguing the opposite with Miller.
None of it matters. Rosenthal will be promoted pretty soon anyway. Then we will see Miller and Rosenthal side by side vs. the same competition. I’m pretty confident that the final results will be closer to my projection. I actually used to approach my Rosie expectations with skepticism, but I’m “all in” now. I have seen the kid pitch in person twice this year. I have seen a right handed batter duck on a pitch for a strike. Rosie is for real.
Please compare Rosie’s AA stats to Miller’s AA stats (as I did) and explain how you get to Miller being “way better”. As I have said, I’m not an advanced stat guru, but on basic stats, your statement is plainly false.
And yes, I plainly do discount Rosie’s current BB rates. Tossing out his history for however many starts he has had so far this year strikes me as a reach to make your case.
To further my point on the BB’s, over Rosie’s first five starts, his BB rate was .66 per IP. Over his last 7 starts, his BB rate has dropped to .40 per IP. I detect a trend.
Nothing to disagree with there. I never said or implied he wasn’t getting better. In fact I expect him to. what that has to do with a discussion of how he has pitched so far I have no idea.
You can read so I shouldn’t have to point out that Miller’s K rates were better, his BB rate were better and his HR rates were better. That by definition makes his FIP better. The “way” better might not be as accurate as I was mistakenly looking at miller’s stats for the entire year (2011) but no doubt better is accurate. Even with his down year this year Miller’s K rates are better and his BB rates are better than Rosies. His HR rate is way worse. But we know since he has historically had low HR rates that this is an aberration and should be entirely discounted. We should also ignore that Shelby’s BABIP is well over league average and should revert to the norm over time since you dont want to give any credence to “advance stats”.
The idea that we can dismiss the stats we want of who we want based on them being not the normal but not do it for others is silly. BABIP is unlike walk and even HR rates though as much of this is considered out of the pitchers control and there is evidence it normalizes over time. That cannot be said about K and BB rates. That doesn’t mean that Rosie’s BB rates can’t and won’t improve. It simply means that they show he has not pitched well this season so far. there seems to be some who confuse stats that are predictive in nature and stats that are simply reflective of performance to date. BB rates are not predictive as far as I know – but they do show how a pitcher has pitched to date.
Rich, if you choose to only look at basic stats that is your choice. I have simply pointed out that using these more “advanced” stats paints a picture that is less Rosy for Rosie. It is a different perspective. sorry if it doesn’t give a result that fits your paradigm. However, I’d encourage you not to dismiss them out of hand for that reason or even for the fact you choose not to try to understand them. Don’t forget, there is a reason they are referred to as “advanced”. :)
CC, you sit there and say that Rosie’s historical BB rates doesn’t matter, and then say Miller’s HR rate does. I think we have a little lack of consistncy here. Rosie’s HR rate is also not materially different as he has given up 3 HR’s over 66 IP and Miller gave up 2 HR’s over 86 IP. Rosie has given up 1 HR in his last 57 IP. Even if he gives up another HR over his next 20 IP, he will have given up only 4 for a difference of a whopping 2 HR’s. Of course, for an advanced guru such as yourself, you will point out that those 2 HR’s are a 100% difference!
I would like for you to explain why WHIP seems to be irrelevant to you. For the basic unadvanced guy like me, the runners a pitcher allows on base is what matters and it would be predictive of odds of giving up runs. Rosie’s is lower to date than Miller’s was. If Miller allows more runners to reach base, I don’t see how he can be “way better” – but that is just me.
K rates are great, but how were they achieved? We know Miller was throwing too many fastballs last year – the Cards said so. Rosie isn’t doing what Miller did, and in fact, I know he is trying to pitch to contact. This year Miller is regressing as he is giving up the long ball at a higher rate, and he does seem to be having some bad luck – I will grant you that, but the fact is he isn’t even getting through 5 innings a game. My gut tells me he is going through a process he should have been going through last year but refused to. If true, then to state that Miler’s stats last year were overstated is not too far off the mark.
K rates at AA are instructive but hardly definitive. In Rosie’s first game in QC he K’d 11 of the first 12 outs. His FB overwhelmed low A hitters. It would do the same thing to most AA hitters.
Cardinal coaching has lauded one pitcher for getting with the program in development of offspeed pitches and critiqued the other for failure to do so…at the AA level. It would sure appear that the results have come home to roost for SM this year.
It’s hard to laud Miller’s K rate this year when his whip is 1.68, his BAA is .304 and he’s served up 12 HR’s in 57 innings. It’s hard to assuage a +5 ERA. Sure his BABIP is high. I’ll bet it goes down when his off speed command improves. As is usually the case, you make some of your own luck.
Neither pitcher’s BB rate is anything to write home about. But we can all afford to get excited about improvement within the season. In the minors, that’s what it’s all about.
Not sure which reference to Miller’s HR rates you are referring to. In one, I was mostly tongue in cheek trying to point out your inconsistency in pointing out Rosenthal’s BB rate difference from year to year but failing to take in to account the same with Miller’s HR rate. in another I was referring more to the fact that Miller’s HR rate is abinormally high based on his HR/flyball rate. There is significant evidence that this (like BABIP) normalize for pitchers over time. It is what generates the xFIP stats that normalizes for abnormal HR rates. xFIP and SIERA (which I mentioned earlier) are considered the best future predictors of ERA.
I dont totally discount WHIP as some people do but it depends on what extent you believe in BABIP and luck determining how many hits a pitcher gives up. You yourself (I believe) have commented many times on how unlucky Rosie has been at times or how a player should have gotten to a ball but didn’t or how a hit should have been rules an error. If you think luck has nothing to do with how many hits a pitcher gives up then WHIP is great stat (those it excludes whether those hits were for extra bases or not.)
I’m not sure why I let you drag me into a Miller/Rosenthal comparison. my post had nothing to do with Miller. I am not obsessed with this comparison as you and others seem to be. My comments were based on Rosenthal versus the league and how that should be viewed based on looking at some of the more “advanced” stats.
So the stats say that Rosenthal is only average for the league but I can assure you the hitters opposing teams and managers know that isn’t the case. He’s got some of the best stuff in the league and he’s one of the hardest pitchers to hit in the league. Nothing average about that IMO.
Andrew, why would that be? They have only slightly less chance of K’ing against him than the rest of the league. They have a better chance of walking against him then they do the rest of the league. And they hit line drives off of him at a rate higher than they do against the rest of the league. That may be changing over the last few starts but for the season as a whole they have no reason to be any more fearful of him than the league average pitcher.
I’ve watched a great deal of his games this year. He has great stuff and the best way for a player to get on base is to hope that they are walked. Rosenthal could do what Miller did last year and just throw the ball past everyone. He’s not doing that he’s mixing things in. I dont know what is constituted as a FO vs a LO but a majority of the hits he gives up are fisted balls over the 2nd baseman. Those may be considered line outs. We dont know.
I guess we just have different assumptions. You assume that opponent batting average is luck while I assume that it is absed on how good a pitcher is. Good pitchers give up less hits.
Also the fact that his has Big League stuff should make them fear facing him.
If you look at him start by start. Most of his runs and walks given up are after he has tired and in his last inning. Also I think at least 8 runs he has given up this year are runs that the next pitcher gave up.
Simply put, great stuff plus great results shows me he’s tougher to hit. I value .baa and whip more than you do I believe.
I was a BABIP skeptic once also. I still wouldn’t call myself evangelistic for it but I think it as well as GB and LD rates are among the stats that need to be looked at when evaluating a players performances
CC, I have discussed weak or soft hits when evaluating a given pitching performance. I have also discussed hard line outs. It matters a lot in a small sample, but over a decent size of innings, I think the “luck” evens out for the most part. That’s why I think WHIP is a key stat. I can’t say what the appropriate number of innings is for the luck factor to even out, but with 66 IP, I would think the sample is approaching equilibrium. I obviously follow Rosenthal closely. Just shooting from the hip, I would say 1,15 WHIP is an accurate stat for Rosenthal. I tend to believe that the BB’s will continue to trend down, and as that occurs, the WHIP will follow. My only point was to respond to someone who said Miller was way better in AA, the WHIP tells a different story. That’s all. And for Pitch’s and your sake, the person who first said that Miller was better in AA was TBird. Again, I just responded.
By the way, you won’t see much difference between their QC stats either.
I know there is nothing clear cut between Rosie and Miller and I’m not down on Miller as much as I’m high on Rosie. Yea, you can find any number of peripherals to justify either position you want. I like that Rosie continues to do everything he’s been asked to develop a complete repetoir of pitches. Despite having a devastating fastball that might still confound AA hitting, he’s busy working the full complement game after game.
I think Rosie’s K rate would be significantly higher were he to depend more on the FB. He just doesn’t. As a consequence the HR rate is probably lower as is the BAA. His BB rate is still too high but has been improving of late. He’s been below 3 BB’s in 5 of past 7 games.
BABIP does little to separate the men from the boys. Some tried to explain Taveras’ monstrous year last year with BABIP. Here he is a year later beating hell out of AA pitching at 19. BABIP is a luck factor that defies explanation in the short run and is more enigmatic than prophetic in the long run.
My preference of Rosie, lies more in confidence that he is a damn smart player who will fully develop every last ounce of his talent. He will soak up the guidance proferred and improve year over year ala Wainwright.
I don’t dislike Miller one bit. I think the kid will eventually dominate AAA and graduate to the bigs. Just not this year and maybe not early next…
Frankly, I’m looking for Rosie to join Miller in Memphis and for them to setup some friendly competition. Each can goad the other to improve. If that doesn’t happen, I don’t think it will be Rosie’s fault.
Usually in a post of this length, I could find something to disagree with….nope
No one is going anywhere (except Kelly for a start and back down again), the cards took a lefty DFA, that will most likely take the spot of Garcia who may not be back this year.
Why is there this constant comparison (not you CC) between Miller and Rosenthal? Miller is a first round HS pick with enormous upside in a league he really shouldn’t be in and obviously not as mature as Rosenthal.
How come the Miller’s aren’t here defending their player, wait, they don’t have to, do they? Sometimes I feel like the R in FR stands for Rosenthal? I like him, so do others, no one needs to defend him.
My advice is to not take everything written either here, other sites or by the writers so seriously.
The only opinion that matters is that of the people who pay their salary.
Hugecardsfan in post #8 is the one who brought up the comparison. I simply expanded.
By the way, what does “not as mature as Rosenthal” mean? First of all, I think that is a comparision……oh my. There is only 5 months difference in age between the two, so there shouldn’t be any maturity difference unless you are talking mental.
The title of this thread was to discuss Miller, so I have. You say Miller has enormous upside. Maybe. I hope so.
If you read one of my posts, I said “there aren’t any major red flags here” (concerning Miller). However, it isn’t me that is saying his velocity is off and his secondary pitches are not plus. If those two statements are true (I’m not saying that they are), then your “enormous upside” description may need to be adjusted.
This is a prospect website. Comparing and discussing prospects would seem to be the norm. I don’t really understand why you are here if this discussion bothers you. I expect there will always be an ongoing ranking discussion between Miller, Jenkins, CMart and Rosenthal – hopefully Swagerty as well when he comes back next year. Gast could well be in the mix as well. But as results come in, these discussions will occur. You may want to go somewhere else.
And to your point on opinions that matter, it is my opinion that the people who pay Rosie’s salary will indeed promote him this year. You are correct though – your opinion and my opinion don’t matter.
The Rosenthals don’t post on any Board. However, I’m sure the Millers are quite welcome here. By the way Pitch, you have never told us who you are connected to. It’s quite obvious you are.
You really believe the DFA is going to take Garcia’s place? He’s another lefty reliever in Memphis because Freeman is staying in STL.
Your right the only opinion that matters is the Cardinals. And the Cardinals made it very clear this Spring that they aren’t happy with Miller’s progress while at the same time literally gushing over Rosenthal’s make up and work ethic.
The comparision is because that’s what you do. When there is a unanimous number 1 prospect for 3 years, when others start to catch up it’s worth discussing if the incumbent is still the best prospect. Miller by his performance has opened that door of discussion.
My guess he is replacing Zavada at memphis after Zavada’s fine outing last night.
Andrew, my opinion is that you are very disappointed over the season of your mancrush. You were so high on Miller, might be that someone is telling you inside stuff and you are exposing it slowly, that is wrong.
It’s June, there is a lot of baseball to be played. The big problem I see, is like I said, listening to those that project players to arrive at their destination based on a small sampling earlier than they actually do. Most HS players need 4-5 seasons. If Miller would have been ready earlier, projected that to others, he would have been an earlier pick.
The Cards and their PR touted Shelly as the next coming, they helped to create much of this, then they used Rosenthal (yes that is what they did) to try to motivate Miller. If they move Rosenthal to Memphis side by side to Miller, it will be to motivate their million dollar bonus baby. I have never seen this in this organization, using one player to motivate another? Is this the new way of doing things without TLR. Without Jeff Luhnow?
One thing to keep in mind, as I have stated Lynn struggled his first year in AAA.
I didn’t realize that Gaub was a reliever. So if anyone will take the spot of Garcia it will be a lefty.
I am not sure of anyone else but every board you post it’s dominated by Miller/Rosenthal, and it’s boring.
Don’t read it then. Everyone has there favorite prospects. You won’t admit who your is. I suspect it’s someone that feels slighted. Maybe even a family member. I haven’t figured it out. It seems your not even a fan of the Cardinals or the organization. Always complaining about this or that and not takign any joy in the successes we are having. Maybe you should do some research before you make definative statements like Kelly will be up for 2 starts and then to Memphis for Gaub.
I’m down on Miller not because of his stats but because he didn’t listen to the team as he was comign through the system and now he’s getting a dose of medicine. Whether he can adjust is still be be seen. I don’t think Rosenthal going to AAA would motivate Miller. I think Miller is plenty motivated that his best friend Kelly got the call to the Big’s instead of him.
And in truth, I don’t talk about Miller much.
You aren’t particularly exciting either Pitch. You have said a few things that haven’t been particularly bright like skipping a level can cause injury – you have yet to expand on that doozy. So insulting other posters might be something you should avoid.
Oops, forgot, they just might just convert scabble to a starter, so then next season he will sit on the DL! :/
Again your just talking and have no clue what your s aying.
Scrabble was a starter his whole MILB career and was only made a reliever last year in Toronto. Or maybe you just think the Cardinals are purposefully trying to hurt pitchers. What team do you really follow?
That’s your scaddered opinion. You talked up a storm about Miller beginning of the season.
One of my favorite players is LL. Not sure most know what he’s been through, and yet no one ever came here to defend him when times were tough. Same with others I like, Robinson and Greene those guys take a beating for sure, no excuses from family members when someone has something to say (as in what has happened when Cariocacardinal posted) that tehy don’t agree with.
I am not a family member of a player.
BTW, you do realize that another ML pitcher went on the DL? I know that is great for the younger guys, but can anyone tell me how many milb pitchers in the system are on the DL?
Pitch, I don’t know any family member here. I’m not one. Andrew isn’t one. Sorry, you are just lame (and rather sad)
And for the record, I love Lance Lynn and Tyler Green. Once again, you don’t know what you are talking about – but it’s becoming a broken record….
There are a ton of MILB pitchers on the DL. You must be confusing me with someone else. I reported from Jupiter that Miller came to camp skinny with velocity down and was being hit by the Cardinals AA players. I was the one in the Top 40 prospect discussion on another website that brought up the discussion of Martinez having better upside than Miller and his QC saying that Martinez and Rosenthal both had better breaking stuff than Miller did at the time. I’m the one that reported the tweet that some people in the organization think that Kelly has better stuff than Miller. I’ve been as hard on Miller the whole time as anyone. I don’t/didn’t like that he refused to get with the program on change ups and curveball’s because he wanted to win. So you either have the wrong person or your lying.
Pitch do you knowwho is on the DL as pitchers in the MILB? I do.
You did speak of Miller and him coming to camp not prepared here and on TCN. But you also did give reports and made excuses for when you started to become disenchanted with him. Do you really know why he came to camp underweight? Perhpas if you did, you would just not keep harping on that fact. Or maybe you do, that’s why you do keep bringing it up.
Miller is 21 year old. What is it that you expect?
I also know that you were in Jupiter (as your reported everywhere) and some of your reporting was incorrect on some issues.
One of them was about a catcher turned pitcher standing by himself looking upset as if he didn’t want to be associated with the others. That’s so untrue. Did you talk to him? Do you know him? Do you know his family? So you too often do not know what you are talking about.
How many pitchers are on the DL in milb? I don’t know I got some what of a life and it’s not baseball, I don’t concentrate on other teams, why should I? I am home with a back injury and bored to tears! You are entertaining, even on TCN! And yes I am getting chippy!
I just asked how many in this system, I don’t care abut the others, if you know them all on every team that is creepy.
Well it’s easy to know about why Miller came in underweight. You read the reports. I.E. his workout he focused on losing fat and lost too much. He didn’t follow the program he was assigned for the off season. There was an article on it on the Cardinals website, Lilliquist mentioned it on TV. Miller tweeted about it that he had to start eating more Twinkies to gain weight.
Yes, i mentioned Stock. He was clearly seperating himself from the SS guys he was placed with. Why wouldn’t he be. He successed at Palm Beach for part of last year and all of a sudden he is playing with the group of guys who are still at EST. He was older than them and obviously not happy with being converted to pitcher. It’s called mentioning things that are apparent that others can’t see by not being there.
Regarding the DL. It’s easy. If your on TCN, click on each teams roster and it will show which players form that roster are on the DL. Most people on the DL right now are in the lower system. Bibona has been out for 2 years, Whiting has a forearm strain that hasn’t healed yet, Blair broke his middle finger, Siegrist reagravated his injury, Carlos Martinez has shoulder tendonitis and Jenkins has shoulder soreness and is out as a precaution.
Why do you ask of the DL? Making assumptions about the organization and it’s treatment of pitchers? You realize how tough pitching is on arms. Most organizations have tonsof pitchers on the DL also. It comes with the territory.
I expect at 21 year old to follow the program the organization gave him in order to get better and get him ready to play Pro Ball. No matter if he’s 19 or 24. Being a top prospect and 21 doesn’t excuse him from listening to his employer.
Seems like someone knows what they are talking about and someone doesn’t…….
By your definition, I guess you are making excuses……you do have a sense of humor, Pitch!
Swagerty and Rondon also.
What really bugs me is this. This was good stuff posted about Shelby by Jeff, good supporting stuff that he may be struggling but it’s not like he has major issues.
For some reason, as always it turns into a Rosenthal thread.
Enough said.
One thing that I don’t buy about some of the advanced stats is that people just assume something dramatically changes it has to be an outlier and thigns will normalize. Miller’s high HR rate isn’t an issue of luck. The coach said it earlier in the year. His secondary stuff wasn’t developed enough so that AAA hitters were sitting on his FB. That fastball was increasingly being crushed. Things won’t change with him unless and until he starts learning to be more of a pitcher rather than a thrower. His K rate is simply attributed to that he has to get outs somehow andgiving up very hard contact makesit less likely for him to record outs in the field.
As stated before, this entire expansion grew out of a comment by Hugecardsfan and TBird. But hey, why let the facts get in the way? Right Pitch?
It’s clear that the comparisons bug you. What isn’t clear is, why.
This is a Shelby thread. He’s been recognized as the #1 Cardinal prospect since he was selected. More recently several players have challenged that status…one being Taveras and another being Rosenthal.
I’m not apologizing for either comparison. I happen to think they’re valid. This is a prospect thread and we are constantly viewing lists from pundits, from our own FR gurus and our own posters.
If you are disturbed by this, try to get in front of it by being honest to yourself first, and us next. Nobody is attacking you or necessarily Shelby.
I happen to think it’s great to have three guys who are doing so well that there is an argument in the first place. I can’t imagine any poster on FR wants to denigrate Shelby. I would be delighted if he’d pick right back up from last year and dominate AAA. It simply doesn’t appear to be happening….at least not yet.
I think we all know why Shelby has struggled some. By the same token, I think he’s doing the things he needs to in order to right the ship. It’s just harder to do in AAA.
I don’t see any need for any of us to take this stuff personally. We can champion different players and still have cordial discussions. We can agree to disagree. We’re all Cardinal fans…. Aren’t we?
Well said. I shouldn’t have taken Pitch’s bait…..guilty
No biggie. We all fall off the wagon ocassionally.
There were abotu 15 posts before Rosenthal was even brought up and that was in regards to possibily him taking Kelly’s spot in Memphis. This lead to a comparision between Millers performance alst year in AA compared to Rosenthal’s this year. Still is a good discussion regarding ithe importance of WHIP and .BAA compared to K/9.
Andrew, please don’t confuse Pitch with the facts. He isn’t capable of understanding or he doesn’t want to. My suggestion is just don’t respond to him anymore.
Per John Vuch as of today..
“I think Shelby’s definitely facing some challenges,” Cardinals farm director John Vuch says. “For several years we’ve tried to force the secondary (offspeed) stuff on him. I think he’s now at a level where it’s not something that’s a luxury. It’s becoming a necessity. At (Class) A and Double-A, when push came to shove he knew he could throw a fastball by guys and get outs. That’s not always the case at Triple-A.”
Vuch hastens that few high school pitchers reach the majors without encountering a speed bump. Miller, 21, would have been eligible for this year’s draft as a college junior had the Cardinals refused to pay above slot money for him in 2009.
“He throws a good breaking pitch and change-up,” Vuch says. “But it’s a matter of throwing a good change and breaking pitch 75-80 percent of the time rather than 50 percent of the time. It’s part of development.”
Read more: http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/cardinals-insider-bad-times-in-triple-a/article_978cdc82-e7ae-52e2-97eb-e2cee2bcd68d.html#ixzz1xLGpQcfg
Oh crap, Andrew, there you go again. Citing interviews of Organizational Brass. I’m sure Vuch didn’t really say that or he really didn’t mean it because Pitch knows that it is all just a smokescreen. Right Pitch?
Pitch, Andrew has put you into a hole you aren’t getting out of. You are welcome to your opinions. You are even welcome to insult posters around here. Word to the wise though, you are insulting yourself by doing so.
[...] In the wake of this news the Cardinals are being forced to reassess their starting rotation. One option the team is considering for Saturday’s start is right-hander Joe Kelly. One option apparently not being considered is top prospect Shelby Miller. [...]
Let’s take our foot off of the snark pedal. That tone is accelerating too fast.
Tough to do with the insults Pitch pitches. I will answer his future insults with a simple “ignored”. Hopefully that will be a reply that gets the point across without accelerating the snark pedal.
No problem, Az!