Will Ryan Jackson Be Acceptable Offensively?
Posted on June 11th, 2012 by Andy Beard in Ryan Jackson, tags: Ryan Jackson(azruavatar note: This post was written on June 3rd and then the draft happened. As we continue to wind down our draft posts, we’re moving back into our more traditional writing of current prospects. Andy takes a look at Ryan Jackson, a superb gloveman, and wonders what our expectations should be for him when he’s wearing his batting gloves rather than fielding. All stats are taken as of June 3rd.)
Combining an already well-regarded glove with league average offensive production (98 wOBA+) in double-A Springfield last season, Ryan Jackson was ranked 12th in Future Redbirds’ 2012 Top 20 Prospect List compiled by Jeff and azruavatar. As far as I can tell, he had been unranked one year earlier. But Jackson didn’t only find himself on our radars this season as John Sickels ranked him 15th and Kevin Goldstein ranked him 11th.
Defense-first shortstops are not unfamiliar to Cardinals fans. Brendan Ryan endeared himself to the fanbase with a quirky personality and – more importantly – stellar defensive profile that justified extensive playing time despite limited offensive potential. B. Ryan has posted league average offensive numbers exactly once in his career (in 2009 with the Cardinals), and he did so with the aid of good fortune on balls in play. He was worth 2.9 fWAR. When his luck regressed in his first season with Seattle, he still managed to be worth 2.6 fWAR thanks to spectacular defense at a premier position.
Of course, my intention here isn’t really to compare Ryan Jackson to Brendan Ryan. It’s impossible to make such an inference based on minor league defensive statistics available to the public at this time. B. Ryan is quite possibly (probably) the superior defender but our hope is that Jackson manages to swing a bat that approaches the league average, which means he wouldn’t have to be quite as impressive with the leather to contribute at the major league level. After all, 2-3 WAR players are valuable commodities, especially for mid-market teams like the Cardinals. These cost-controlled pieces allow for teams to invest more heavily in core players considered indispensable, such as Yadier Molina.
B. Ryan never even accumulated 250 plate appearances in double-A but, altogether, he produced at a league average level, but that number dropped precipitously when he reached triple-A, where he posted a .306 wOBA in 353 plate appearances as a 25-year-old.
Entering this season, we wondered whether Ryan Jackson would be able to replicate his offensive success or if it would become apparent that he benefited from a generous run scoring environment. At first glance, Jackson has passed the test with a .287 batting average and 8% walk rate that has combined to help create a 95 wOBA+, but what else is happening beneath the surface?
In 2011, Jackson displayed unexpected pop in Springfield that featured 11 home runs, 34 doubles, and 3 triples in 599 plate appearances. In 2012 at Memphis, he has 2 home runs, 11 doubles, and 1 triple in 226 plate appearances. So while he averaged an extra base hit in every 12.5 plate appearances before, that number has fallen to 16.1 plate appearances this season. Basically, Jackson’s isolated power has dropped back to pre-Springfield levels meaning that he must depend on more singles falling in for hits which make him much more reliant on batted ball luck, something that has been in his favor this season (.359 BABIP).
Higher BABIPs are easier to accept from players that are unusually fast or hit a higher percentage of line drives, but neither of these attributes apply to Jackson. He’s never been much of a threat on the bases and his line-drive percentage sits at 17%, an unspectacular number (keep in mind minor league batted ball data is presumably even less reliable than it is in the majors). Meanwhile, he has seen a 4% increase in strikeouts (19% in triple-A compared to 15.2% in double-A), a trait atypical of players needing to derive value from mostly singles.
I don’t say all of this to discredit Ryan Jackson’s achievements thus far because I do take some comfort in his ability to tread water at Memphis, but we should also exercise caution in our enthusiasm and view him through the prism of other statistics which paint a broader picture of the prospect. Yes, Ryan Jackson has performed at a near league-average level to date but it hasn’t been without the help of a little luck, and there’s still some reason for us to doubt his ability to keep this up as he nears his eventual promotion to St. Louis.
Entries (RSS)
What is impressive with Jackson is his BABIP at .343 he has a solid OBP at .344 a .117 ISO is pretty bad but he can hit for more HR power than he could see himself as a everyday SS if he can’t he will have a utility role. Jackson’s got a solid approach to the plate he just doesn’t have much power so probably will be another singles hitter on the team.
I think the reason he had a career high in HR last season at 10 was because the Texas League has always been known as a launching pad. Now he’s playing in a different league with more talented pitchers that have better stuff and command of there pitches.
Yes, that his offensive breakout happened in the same year he played for Springfield in a park/league known for inflating offense is surely more than a coincidence.
I’m confused about your first comment, DT. You refer to his “solid OBP,” but on-base percentage is a statistic that can be inflated by BABIP since it includes batting average. It’s better to look at walk-rates and his 7.9% rate is only up a tick from last year. For the record, walking 8% of the time is approximately league average for major league hitters.
Thanks for this article. It kind of gives me a more realistic view of Jackson and more understanding of the numbers he has produced. I might need to temper my excitement of him.
Thanks for reading. Glad you found it informative.
I think it is still too early to tell on Jackson. Of course I just looked up his numbers at Memphis and as of today they are 235 at bats, 14 2b and 4 hr. Considering that is about 40% of last years at bats that would come out to about 35 2b and 10 hrs. Compared to 34 and 11 last year.
Nor would it be uncommon for some of those doubles to turn into HR as the 6’2 175 pound Jackson fills out. So I still do not think that 15 hrs is out of the question going forward. To put that into perspective, only 5 major league short stops hit more than 15 hrs last year. Rollins had 16 and four were in the twenties.
My points is not that he is going to be a great hitter going forward or hrs are the most important stat we should be looking at but Jackson’s power stats are more than respectable when compared to other short stops.
As azruavatar mentioned, I wrote this post on June 3rd. Since then Jackson has hit 2 HRs & 3 doubles in the span of 7 games, so his counting stats suddenly look slightly more palatable.
Andy,
Also I used at bats and you used plate appearances which throws off my math. That makes it 44% rather than 40% which makes it more like 32 and 9 rather than 35 and 10.
That still does not seem bad power wise at the short stop position. I can’t figure out where to find this information but I would assume that most short stops and catchers come in below league average in general. So is it fair to compare Jackson to the league average?
No, it isn’t fair… Hope my post didn’t come across as saying that he needs to be league average because that’s not my stance. Brendan Ryan was a valuable player for Seattle in 2011 despite being below average offensively. But the better Jackson profiles as a hitter now, the more confident we can be about his ability to contribute later in St. Louis. It’s great that he has an excellent reputation as a defender but that’s tough to quantify at the major league level, let alone the minors.
No, I didn’t think you were saying he needs to be league average. My point was just that I think we need to compare him to short stop average, although as I said I can not figure where one would find that.
Well, Fangraphs has league average stats sortable by position. Here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&players=0
You find this by either going to “leaders” or “teams” and then selecting the “league stats” button near the top, on the right.
Right now (as in, 2012 in the major leagues) the average batting line for a SS is .251/.306/.367. I don’t know if their league stats only include qualifying batters or not, though.
You’d have to imagine Jackson could probably do that, whilst being an average fielding SS. That’d make him a 2 WAR player.
BA is now reporting that the Cardinals are $447,300 under budget. I don’t see a new signing, so I suspect that the Cardinals revealed that they paid someone other than Wisdom under slot. Ramsey is still not signed, so that may mean that as much as a million remains for paying some of the overslot draftees (Kelly, Williams, Foody).
That is good news. Wish we could see who signed for what though.
As of this morning, BA shows the Cards $764,400 under budget. Like you, I’m curious to see how they saved the money.
But I’m not surprised they saved it. On Kevin Goldstein’s last podcast (which has lots of great info about the Cards), he and Jason Parks talk about how the draft was conducted. Basically, draft directors went down a list, calling agents and saying, “Will your guy sign in round X for $XXX?” If they said no, no hard feelings, they just dialed the next guy on the list.
In the past, they said, agents started with the slot amount and then tried to negotiate up for most players. This year, teams are starting at the slot and negotiating down. No surprise, but just interesting to hear two guys with good sources talk about how it works.
BA reporting that Bean signed for $700K – $187K below slot.
That’s a great sign if true.
I guess we know from who fell which guys said no.
Even #5 pick Zimmer signed for nearly 20% below slot.
I’ll say this about Ryan Jackson, since day 1 he has overachieved from what the experts predicted for him. He’ll just have to prove himself in the Show too and I, for one, wouldn’t bet against him. He’ll hold his own and do it well.
What would be a best case scenario homegrown major league line up in, say 5 years? I have been thinking about this over the last few days. I came up with this:
Tilson CF
Wong 2B
Taveras RF
Adams 1B
Freese/Cox/Kelly/Piscotty/Ramth? 3B
Molina/Bean/Garcia/? C
Ramsey/Piscotty/? LF
Jackson/Garcia/Meija SS
I only see a real need at C. Which Garcia could end up developing into a solid C. At SS I think we have enough guys that are defensively capable and we can live with a soft hitting SS.
You’ve still got Allen Craig in LF.
That is true. I like him more than Ramsey or Piscotty.
Also, if I’m using Kelly I guess I should add Williams to that 3B or LF mix.
Any base case scenario would have to include Tavares in CF.
And do you really think Tilson has an upside higher than Jay? Even higher than Jay has produced to date?
Is Freese considered homegrown? – we didn’t draft him.
And as mentioned eslewhere – where’s Alan Craig?
I believe Tilson has more upside potential than Jay, not that he will ever be better than Jay. Just that he has the chance to grow.
I like Taveras in RF, because there he is probably a plus defender. Where as in CF he might not quite have the range. His bat is his main tool, and while it is poisoned for him to get hurt playing RF, it is more likely that he spends time on the DL playing in a position that he has more ground to cover.
I consider Freese homegrown, because we got him when nobody expected a lot from him. He hadn’t made it to the bogs yet, so we developed him. That is just how I looked at it.
Craig must have slipped my mind, that’s the reason I posted it here. I wanted people to see it and improve it.
I wonder if Freese won’t be more or less done in 5 years. I think (without checking) he turns 30 this year, and has had a few injuries. I also think Meija is just organisational filler. I like Jackson and Garcia, though, and I guess Descalso will probably still be on the scene. Some good depth there.
That’s a real nice lineup, though. I guess you could also add this mouth-watering selection box (and no, I don’t think Lance Lynn will end up a reliever, and maybe not Martinez, Kelly or Foody, either, but we’ve just got too many pitchers if everything breaks perfectly!):
SP: Miller
SP: Wacha
SP: Rosenthal
SP: Garcia
SP: Jenkins
CL: Martinez
RP: Lynn
RP: Sanchez
RP: Gast
RP: Foody
RP: Kelly
RP: Cleto
And this is assuming Wainwright (if you consider him home-grown) and Motte will be finished in 5 years (which I think might be the case, but it’s possible Adam could sign another 4-year deal when his current one finishes, if he stays healthy. I think Motte will be toast as soon as he can’t consistently throw 95+, though.), and guys like Mitchell Boggs will have moved on. I couldn’t even find room for the likes of Salas, Fornataro…
Also, would that be about the hardest throwing bullpen in history? Everyone but Gast might throw 95+, and in Cleto, Sanchez, Kelly and C-Mart you’ve got four guys who’ve all been clocked in the 98-102 range.
I think Freese turns 29 this year but yeah.
turned 29 in April.
If Ramsey or Piscotty is our LF in 5 years I’d hardly call that a best case scenario.
Should of put Craig
I guess the hope is that with all these home-grown guys elsewhere they’ll spend big on another big-name LF when Holliday’s done. In all honesty, I could see Craig and Taveras in the OF corners for a long time to come, though, and I think with Jay/Ramsey/Tillson as CF options, it’s not implausible we could be home-grown in the OF in 5 yrs.
people always do this every year and it never actually happens in the future. Most likley there wont be that many of out draftees and prospects that stick as a starter in the Majors, we will have a mix of FA, contract extended current players, and some propspects. People just get a little too optomistic assuming in X years all these guys will be in the majors putting up good numbers.
But i geuss you did say best case scenario so maybe im harping on you a little too much haha
I like Jackson a lot. His offense has been a work in progress and has been consistently good the past 3 years. To think we can get above average defense and league average offense from that skill position is rather amazing. Not a luxury we’ve enjoyed a lot for an awful long time…. Not counting Furcal this year.
Great analysis of his offense, Andy.
I wonder if his defense will end up pretty close to Ryan’s. Just looking at raw counting totals from the minors, last year Jackson led TL shortstops in assists (395), putouts (201) and DPs (80) in 134 games. The only MiLB SS with significantly better numbers was Andrelton Simmons of the Braves in the Carolina League. He had 417 assists, 218 putouts, and 89 DPs in 129 games (with more errors, FWIW).
These are just league leaders, so it wouldn’t include shortstops who played in multiple leagues.
By comparison, in 2005 Ryan played 93 games at A+ and AA, and totaled 304 assists, a rate of 3.27 per game, which was better than Jackson’s 2.95 per-game rate in 2011.
Imperfect comparisons, of course; who knows how many chances they got, or how good the other infielders were. But it was the age-23 season for both, and at least suggests that while Jackson is one of the better MiLB shortstops today, in terms of raw production, Ryan was somewhat better at the same age and roughly the same level.
I think Jackson has a good shot at being a 1.5-2WAR-ish SS pretty much straight away, but I also kind of doubt he has much more ceiling (I don’t believe in the power and don’t really like the swing at all, so I think he’ll just be a pesky hitter at most). I do, however, worry that glove-first shortstops with that sort of profile are a bit under-rated by front offices and managers (see Ryan) and so that’ll make him a backup. Still, pretty good return on a 5th-round (I think) pick.
Especially the 5th round in a draft that included 3 potential MLB starters in Miller, Rosenthal, and Kelly, and a potential middle-of-the-order hitter in Adams. Getting 5 solid starters, if they all make it, would be an astounding haul from one draft.
And we still haven’t seen what Anthony Garcia might be able to do. At 20, he’s in the top 10 in the MWL in OPS, SLG, and doubles.