Comments on: Daily Farm Report – 6/13/12

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 17:06:39 +0000

That’s pretty much it. There are very, very few .234 BABIP pitchers even for a season. If Rosie were to start giving up fewer line drives his BABIP could possibly stay low (but doubtfully lower). Of course you can still give up a lot of hits and be effective if you get a large number of K’s or get a lot of DP balls. A good pitcher such as Rosie will most likely adapt if a few more of those batted balls start falling as hits. He will most likely bear down even more and give up fewer walks and possibly get a few more K’s.

By: RCHIII

RCHIII — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 13:43:50 +0000

I understand it now. There is nothing to say that Rosie’s BABIP won’t finish low for the season. However, if it does, all CC is saying is that it is an aberration. All pitchers BABIP’s on a given level are in a fairly close range – much closer than you would think. For instance, Clemens sat .284 while Lohse sits .300. You will get variations from the mean in any given season. All CC is saying is that there is no way that Rosie is a .234 BABIP pitcher…..on any level because his BABIP by definition will gravitate to the mean eventually.

In many ways, this removes the human element from the game, but it is only used (as far as I can tell) for predictive purposes.

By: Hugecardsfan

Hugecardsfan — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 07:27:38 +0000

Re: “Rosenthal has been excellent considering age and skipping a league but when looking behind the numbers he is not blowing the league away by any means and if he keeps pitching as he has, his stats are more likely to decline than improve.”

I’m not sure I get that. Why, for instance, would we expect, “if he keeps pitching as he has”… He doesn’t seem to do much of that. Last night was, for instance, as big a variation as one could expect…. He gave up a lot of hits and no BB’s. Clearly his stuff wasn’t working for him so hitters were centering on him. Which sounds to me like he was off and not like he was offering more of the same. The previous game he finished 7 innings of 3 hit ball with 7K’s and 1 BB. What about that is predictive of poor future performance?

On the other hand, as he continues to refine his offspeed pitches and work them into his repetoir, most good pitchers become more comfortable with the art of pitching and he’s a good one….student of the game, I would think. I believe, instead, that he’ll become more dominant as he moves forward rather than less so.

Just an opinion, but, no less valid than somehow trying to predict future results by using past numbers. Having spent a career in the stock market trying to accomplish something similar with numbers, I can proffer a litany of fallacies with the process.

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 22:57:54 +0000

IT doesn’t depend necessarily on the historical data for the pitcher but a comparison of his BABIP with the kind of hits he is giving up. LD’s fall for more hits than other types of hits. Ground balls more so than fly balls. So by comparing the profile for the types of batted balls a pitcher is giving up with his BABIP and the league average BABIP one can get a general sense of whether a pitcher is being lucky or not. The variable that is harder to get a grasp on is the defense behind a pitcher which can also influence BABIP. A pitcher only has a distinctive profile to the extent that he consistently gives up the same kind of batted balls (LD/GB/FB) from year to year.

If you get caught up in the details and the math you will go nuts. However if you stick to the general concept it makes sense and you can get a general feel for how to apply it.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 22:23:11 +0000

What’s the weakness? He’s walking more than last year despite being hit less? We have discussed likely why this is occuring. In fact I’ve stated it. He’s trying to be too fine sometimes and sometimes he seems to lose his head and throw 8 balls in a row. Is that considered a “weakness” if it didn’t occur last year?

By: PJ

PJ — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 22:22:32 +0000

And Carson Kelly is signing

By: pitch and hit

pitch and hit — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 22:18:35 +0000

I won’t get into a p match with you, you seem to be very knowledgeable, so figure it out.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 22:06:00 +0000

Who’s the other pitcher and what’s the weakness?

By: Andrew

Andrew — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 21:57:49 +0000

Don’t get how you find the mean for each pitcher though. How many years of data do you need to know what BABIP each particular pitcher should have.

By: Bob

Bob — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 21:53:48 +0000

A quick back-o’-the-envelope calculation has Anthony Garcia at roughly .310/.400/.550 since his dreary 3-24 opening week.

Also, for anyone who didn’t see John Sickels’ writeup, it looks like Anthony G. has grown a couple inches since he was drafted at age 17. Sickels says he appears to be about 6′ 2″ and 195 lbs., or plenty big enough to have plus-plus MLB power by age 25 or so. Now if he can just cut back on the K’s….

Also, Oscar Taveras hits good, huh?