It has been about two weeks since the Cardinals (and the rest of the league) had their First-Year Player draft. Anticipation was very high because the Cardinals had 5 picks on the first night in the first round and first supplemental combined. The Cardinals had what I thought was a big bonus pool and I was hoping they would go out and be aggressive. But, what happened was different and it is hard to explain my emotions between disappointed/upset/let down. But, after hearing how the new draft rules shook out the draft, I think the Cardinals did what they had to do and may have even been ahead of the game. The rest after the jump!
Let’s start with the new draft rules which are in place for the first time this year. Baseball America has the breakdown of how it shook out after the draft. (I have linked to this before, but it is a great read if you want to understand what happened in the draft.)
The new draft rules attach a value to each pick in the first 10 rounds. The total of all of those picks is each team’s bonus pool for this year’s draft. Go over budget and the team pays a tax, and if it goes over by more than 5 percent it starts losing draft picks. Any player selected after the 10th round who signs for more than $100,000 counts against the pool. And if a team doesn’t sign a pick in the top 10 rounds, it loses the budget space allotted for that pick.
So teams had to know how to stretch their dollars, but just as importantly, how to make absolutely sure they would sign all of their picks in the first 10 rounds.
The Cardinals bonus pool is $9,131,100. (The Cardinals bonus pool plus 5% to pay the tax, but avoid draft pick loss is $9,587,655)
Let’s go chronologically in the draft. The Cardinals selected Michael Wacha at 19. Wacha fell to the Cardinals, Baseball America had him at #8. He is not the caliber of pitcher that Shelby Miller was when he fell to the Cardinals, but still a good pitcher who should move quickly with a good fastball that touches 96, great change-up and average breaking pitches right now. The Cardinals slot for this selection is $1,900,000 and per Jon Heyman, he has agreed to terms on exactly that number pending the physical in St. Louis.
The Cardinals did not save any money at 19, but still went the senior route with James Ramsey. I abhorred the pick at the time and over the last two weeks, I have come to understand it. I was upset that the Cardinals passed on Styker Trahan, who was picked three picks later by the Diamondbacks and signed for slot of $1.7 mil. The Cardinals already understood how the rules made it so they could not lose this pick and the $1,775,000 associated with it and obviously wanted to save money with this pick. They saw the value of seniors in the top 10 rounds, so they proactively went ahead and got one of the best seniors, who could save them upwards of a million dollars on the slot. James Ramsey was a supplemental first rounder at best, but probably has already agreed to a below slot deal to get the “first rounder” tag. Ramsey turned down $500,000 from the Twins last year. As a senior with zero leverage, it is possible he could accept a $500k-$700k deal in exchange for being picked in the 1st round. Ramsey was the only senior picked in the first round, but it was not long the other teams got in the act. The Cardinals knew Ramsey’s demands during the draft and how that fell into the greater scheme of their draft targets and how much money they had to spend. The Cardinals probably would have signed Ramsey already, but his Florida State Seminoles are still playing and they are the No. 3 overall seed in the College World Series. Once their season ends, Ramsey will be signed immediately.
In the supplemental round, the Cardinals picked Stephen Piscotty, who has shown himself to be a good hitter in college and in the Cape Cod League, but I personally don’t like his prospects as a future corner outfielder with limited power. However, that being said, the Cardinals got Baseball America’s #26 player at pick 36. The slot for this pick is: $1,430,400 and I believe the Cardinals will be able to get him for around that number.
The Cardinals picked two below slot players in Patrick Wisdom and Steve Bean. They have already signed both and saved $276,700 and $170,600 under slot respectively.
In the 2nd round, at 86th overall, the Cardinals got a big time prospect at 3rd base in Carson Kelly. He was Baseball America’s #43 prospect and will need big money over the slot at this selection of $574,300 to get him out of a commitment to Oregon. The money saved above will be the only reason the Cardinals will be able to sign Kelly. I think they will sign him because otherwise they are going to lose that $574,300 from their pool.
The Cardinals have signed six of the next eight picks for slot or under slot deals. The only reason they have not signed two of those players is they both play for University of Arizona which is in the College World Series. (Actually playing against James Ramsey and Florida State at 8pm on Friday night. Set your DVRs.) Jacob Wilson in the 10th round saved the most for the Cardinals signing for $105,000 under slot.
Now, on to the 10th round and beyond and back to the Baseball America article about the new draft rules:
And in a perverse incentive, because the first $100,000 for a player taken after the 10th round does not count against a team’s budget, a team can stretch its bonus pool by taking better talent in later round. Say a team wants two players, one who will sign for $1,000 and the other who will sign for $250,000. If it takes the $250,000 player in the sixth round and the $1,000 player in the 11th, $250,000 counts against the budget. But reverse those two picks and only $150,000 counts against the pool.
The Cardinals obliged the rules picking hard signs with their 11th and 12th round selections in Trey Williams (BA #99) and Max Foody (BA #349) knowing that their would be no harm if they were unable to sign them.
On the exterior the Cardinals draft looks strange. Their picks seemed to be all over the map, but with the new draft rules, their is a huge importance on the dirty word of “signability”, especially among the top 10 rounds. Every team knows the bonus demand of every player they target and they have to orchestrate the draft and the bonuses required like a puzzle. Unfortunately, this puzzle is only starting to become visual for fans like us. But after researching the draft, the Cardinals did exactly what they had to do with the bonus pool and the rules provided. The draft is not sequential. The Cardinals probably knew who they were going to pick in round 11 and 12 and knew they were going to pick Kelly in round 2, so they had to save money earlier. The MLB draft is different than any other draft in that way.
The good thing about the new draft rules is that with the public bonus pools, we can keep track of the Cardinals bonus pool here at Baseball America and how they are doing (currently up $764,400) and we will be able to see whether or not the Cardinals have enough money in their pool to sign the players left unsigned. Right now, they look like they are in good shape, but the big ticket players will not fall into place until later in the signing period.
The moral of the story is that the 2011 draft was not a very good one for talent, especially as low as the Cardinals were picking in the 1st round, consequently, the Cardinals picked who they needed to in order to hold their bonuses within the restrictive cap. I had a few nitpicks, but now I have gone from hating the Cardinals draft to understanding it and with the development time required on each of these players, we are more than five years away from seeing how well the Cardinals actually did.
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Nice analysis, Jeff.
I think the Cards’ philosophy was to get hitters first, and worry about where they’ll play later. I can’t think of any other reason why they picked Piscotty, Wisdom, Kelly, and Williams in the same draft. All of them, with the possible exception of Wisdom, seem to have a middle-of-the-order ceiling.
Last year’s draft was different — Wong and Tilson figure to stick at 2nd and CF — but it still looked like there was a common them: trying to find guys to hit at the of the order.
Another theme: guys who figure to move up fast. I can see them projecting Wacha, Piscotty, and Ramsey to all be in AA this time next year.
Money-wise, after signing Ramsey they should have at least a million below budget to go after Kelly, Williams, and Foody. Maybe $300k x 2 for Foody and Williams (giving them total bonuses around $400k each), and a little over $400k for Kelly, giving him a total of a million?
Foody has allegedly signed with St. Louis already, unsure of the signing bonus or if they deal has been made official yet.
Thanks Zach. We will have to wait to find out the number above slot for him! But, good to know we signed him.
Somebody claiming to be a friend of Foody (FOF) posted a few days ago $400k. Who can say.
Thanks Lou!
Reading your post I was able to figure out the bonuses for Wacha, Wisdom, and Bean. Could you post the bonus figures for the rest of the first ten rounds?
Is the money going to be there to sign Kelly, Williams and Foody? I’ve heard Kelly was asking for around $2 million before the draft. Assuming $1 million is saved on Ramsey, that will result in a surplus of $1.7 million. Assuming the remainder of the first 10 round picks sign for slot, excluding Kelly, then $1.7 million (not including slot allocations) can be divided up among Kelly, Williams and Foody. Will Kelly accept $1 million (approx. $500K from surplus, remainder from slot allocation), leaving $1.2 million to be allocated to Williams and Foody? If it takes $1.5 million or more to sign Kelly, then only one of Williams and Foody will sign. Players with Williams’ and Foody’s attributes are needed assets in the farm system–power and projectable lefty.
The Cardinals didn’t pick Kelly to let him get away. They will sign him. Foody is in the fold per above comment. Williams is the least likely sign amongst the three and will depend on excess $$$.
That’s unfortunate because Frankie Piliere says that Williams seems like he’s wanting to sign and it’s just a matter of if the Cardinals can find the money for him. i.e. he’s not tied to going to Pepperdine at all. He fell because he didn’t have a great senior year, had prospect fatigue after being a top name for at least 3 years and many teams though he could easily go to college to resurrect his value. He has the most power potential of anyone we drafted this year.
I still think they will get Williams IMO.
If he wants to sign, he’ll sign.
So if they somehow snag all three of Kelly, Williams and Foody, how does that color your overall perception? To me, it seems like a nice mix of long-range upside and nearer-to-majors sure to do something, especially considering the new rules and shallower draft pool overall…
Absolutely. And I think the Cards should be able to snag all three. I don’t think they shot the moon with players with huge draft asking prices.
I think “shallower draft pool” is the key consideration.
As you guys say, it seems like the Cards got the best possible mix of immediate value and future potential with this group, given what the draft had to offer.
Wacha seemed like the best available at 19, and with everyone else, on paper it looks like the Cards had a sound strategy.
I’ll second Lou’s comment, and say Great article, Jeff!
As for the detailed number-crunching, T-Bird, your calculations omitted one very important variable that Jeff sorta mentioned in passing: the nearly $500,000 “extra” bonus money the Cards can allocate without losing a draft pick next year.
Yes, they’d be fined by Commissioner Skeletor, but when you’re investing over $10,000,000 total on a given draft class, I don’t think you should blanch at a couple hundred grand in fines.
Q: Was Max Foody (sounds like a Cooking Channel host) really only rated number 349 by Baseball America? If so, how come? Thanks, whomever has an answer!
If the Cards get ‘em all signed, I’d put this class in the top 3-5, which would be pretty snazzy for a team that didn’t pick until #19, and had to abide by the Brave New Slotting Rules.
A: Because they thought he was the 349th best prospect. (sarcasm somewhat intended). I don’t think they take signability into account and so it is just based on tools (but I might be wrong). I haven’t seen any scouting report that makes me think this was an amazing pick in round 12 and we’re getting a steal. Please post something if someone knows different.
Ok a HS lefty with good size 6-2 220 who was considered as a first round talent. He throws 92-93 MPH wasn’t higher because he’s already had shoulder issues but those could be behind him. So yes, probably beter than a 12th round talent.
I’ve never seen that Foody was considered a “first round talent” – certainly, that would have been a outlier position, as most services/prospectniks saw him much lower. True, Foody wasn’t a “12th round talent” – probably more like 3rd-5th.
Thanks bc … I never saw anyone have him in the top 100 so “first round talent” is extremely questionable. 3rd-5th sounds reasonable but I was thinking 5th-7th so a good value pick, but not a steal.
First round consideration. He wasn’t going to be a 1st rounder because of his shoulder issues in the past. His shoulder seems to be fine now and worth a gamble on a big lefty.
Shoulders are seldom fine after surgery (which I think he had). I saw somewhere that he had had TJ surgery not shoulder surgery – was that a writer’s mistake?
BA report on him mentioned shoulder. I don’t know if it was a surgery but issues that had to be rehabbed. Similar to Anthony Ferrara. Same type situation, would have gone higher had he not had the shoulder issues.
i get the impression that a lot of teams were feeling the system out this year. it will be interesting to see how many teams follow the “cardinals plan” next year.
Of course, very few teams will be in the Cardinals situation, whether they follow the Cardinals “plan” or not. The situation with so many high-but-not-top choices, with guys out there who may require over slot, was bordering on unique, and is unlikely to be repeated next year. The one team like them this time around was Toronto; how do they compare to the Cardinals in both approach and outcome? Does anyone here follow the Toronto boards?
I’m becoming more and more confident that the cards are ginna sign all 3 of the high upside prep guys they drafted.
I do wonder if Williams was the back up plan to Kelly
Even if the Cards sign every pick, it’s not obvious that their plan was good. In comparing the BA list to the pick numbers the Cards had, the Cards’ plan did not result in them drafting higher ranked prospects than their draft slot. It’s also not obvious that the Cards couldn’t have signed the same players had they simply drafted them in “talent” order and tried to sign them for slot.
Regardless, and to make an obvious point, the Cards draft will only be good if the players signed end up being good prospects/players.
the purpose of the plan was to minimize risk of losing pool money. if the cardinals had signed an overslot guy like kelly or williams with a first round or supp pick, they’d have little leverage because they’d lose their pool money if kelly or williams refused to sign.
the way they did it minimizes this risk and maximizes leverage. if williams refuses to sign, they lose nothing from the pool. if kelly refuses to sign, they lose half a mil from their pool, rather than the 1.8 or 1.4M they’d've lost if they drafted him instead of ramsey or piscotty. so, drafting the same guys in “talent order” would have imposed a lot more risk without any perceivable gain.
while the BA top 500 is one list, it’s not gospel.
still, i don’t buy your read. according to BA’s top 500, we got 18 picks in the BA top 500, where the cardinals had 19 picks before their pick at #510 in the 16th round. they got six top 100 picks from the BA list, while having 6 spots for drafting before #117 in the MLB draft.
if you’re going to use the BA 500 as your benchmark, you have to note that we managed to land and sign the #8 overall draftee on their list, despite having #19 as our first pick. that’s a pretty clear and significant case of drafting a higher ranked prospect above his slot. that’s a pretty good draft, even by the BA list (which i think gets overused).
Your point ignores that the Cards can “negotiate” with the players before picking them, which lowers the risk. Also, it ignores that the Cards may have lost out on certain targeted players because of their strategy. It’s beyond unlikely that the players they ended up drafting through this strategy were their top choices. I mean, it’s possible they just really thought James Ramsey or Wisdom or whoever was the very best choice talent wise at those spots, but it seems very unlikely (indeed, the underlying assumption of the Cards’ “strategy” is that they didn’t take BPA at each slot).
I agree the BA 500 isn’t gospel (and never said it was), it’s just a simple point of reference.
Technically, “negotiating” with players before the draft violates the new CBA rules (wink).
I think what is important here is that the Cardinals had a plan and implemented it very well. I don’t see the point of arguing that there was a different way to get the same results. How would we know that and why would we care?
The Cardinals clearly sought to achieve these results and contol risk in the process. It would seem those were worthy and achievable goals as implemented.
Is there anywhere that has the signing bonus amounts for Jones, Barraclough, Gonzalez and Wick?
Because I dont think Baseball America has the exact numbers.
The thing to remember is that you cannot properly judge a draft until years after it occurs. Some drafts that seem great a couple months after amount to nothing, while other drafts that seem weak become strong. It’s nearly impossible to properly project. Look at the 2009 draft, the Cards drafted 5 potential impact major leaguers after the 10th round in Carpenter, Rosenthal, Adams, Keith Butler, and Anthony Garcia.
I completely agree.
Everyone is analyzing the draft according to BA rankings. How do we know those rankings are any good to begin with? Or any better than Cardinals scouts? This is my big problem with all the opinions of the draft.
IF we sign Kelly and Williams to go along with Foody, I’d have to call the draft class good based on what we know now. Obviously in 5 years we’ll have a better perspective, but the way I see it is if the Cardinals had taken Wacha at 19, Kelly at 23, Williams at 36, Piscotty at 52 and Bean at 59, and waited to pop Ramsey in the 2nd, my Day One would have been a lot more enjoyable.
the idea of being hurt by losing pool money is silly to me. Particular in the first 3 rounds. So what if you lose Kelly’s pool money? It (and more) was all going to him anyway. In his case, we may lose the pool money but we get it back next year via a comp pick. No harm no foul. Given that, it makes much more sense to sign Williams regardless of the fact that he has nothing to do with pool money. If you don’t sign him, you lose him with no compensation. If you lose out on Kelly, you get the comp pick next year.
It looks like teams had similar strategies in drafting hard signs in rounds 11+ but in retrospect might we have been better off to draft Virant also in round 10? yes, we would have lost out on Jacob Wilson and we would have 100K less for hard to sign players but it would give us one more guy to have a shot at. We most likely wouldn’t be able to sign all of Kelly, Virant, Wilson and Foody in that scenario but it would give the Cards one more option of a high rated Cards e signing and allow the if one wants too much.Cards to further playoff one high priced guy against the other and provide a back up plan
I dont think you can say the Cards new who they were going to pick in rounds 11 and 12. They had no idea who other teams would have been drafted.
i agree on virant in round 10, fwiw.
nice analysis but 2 weeks since draft? are you in the future or something? it was last week. began on monday june 5th w/bulk of picks exactly a week ago today
Jeff,
Nice work on explanation of this year’s draft.
The cardinals are known to call about 10 minutes before each pick, to tell them what they will pay for that slot. Take it or leave it.
Wonder if that was the same this year as well.
So if I am understanding this correctly the Cardinals drafted Kelly in the 2nd round rather than the supplemental round because if they don’t sign him they only lose a slot of 574 rather than the higher slot value of the supplemental round and then they drafted Williams and Foote so they would have something to spend the money they targeted for Kelly above and beyond his slot value. Because if you do not sign Kelly you not only lose his slot value but if you don’t have something to spend that extra money on then I assume that that money would just go unspent too?
I have little problem with the way the Cards drafted so long as they get the guys signed. The biggest head scratcher to me is the overabundance of 3rd basemen in the system (if they sign Kelly and WIlliams)
I’ve set up a signing tracker at my website:
http://www.85percentsports.com/2012/06/08/mlb-draft-signing-tracker/
I’m still working to get a lot of the bonuses. As mentioned, Wacha signed for slot, as did Tim Cooney from Wake Forest ($404,400). I’ve heard Jones, Barraclough, Gonzalez, and Wick signed below slot, but I don’t have the amounts. The Cardinals should have some surplus for Kelly, Williams, and Foody (good news that he’s signing, if true).
If you have a BA subscription, it’s all there in the database.
Jones signed for slot, Barraclough for $65k (less than half of slot), Gonzalez for $50k (just over 1/3 of slot), Wick for $75k ($50k below slot), and Wilson for $20k ($105k below slot — nice reward for the C-USA POY!).
We’re going to need to save +$1 million on Ramsey….
Surprised a senior like Barraclough got that much.
Maybe he had multiple teams interested. By the 7th round you’d have to think most teams were looking for guys who would sign for below slot.
Could be that he told the Cards someone else asked him to sign for $60k, and the Cards said “how about 65?”
Unfortunately, I don’t have a subscription. Thanks for the information though.
Quick question. I know the conventional wisdom is that seniors have little leverage when drafted, however wouldn’t they potentially have more leverage with the new system since the ball club loses the bonus allocation if they don’t sign? I know that they would then have to play ball in the independents and be signed as a free agent (with a much lower price tag). It just seems that the ball club has a lot to lose as well. Am I missing anything here?
Also, thanks for putting together these great articles. I don’t post much, but this site is on my daily reader list, so I appreciate everyone’s effort.
Carson Kelly is signed and heading to St. Louis for a physical according to Derrick Goold. Jim Callis says it’s worth 1.6 million.
That’s a million over the allotted amount. Seems like coming up with more than maybe $500k will be tough for Williams.
I dont see how you can sign Kelly before Ramsey – they must trust Ramsey a lot. Theoretically, Ramsey could hold them over a barrel because without the savings from his deal, the Cards would pay big time and lose a draft pick next year.
If he’s got the high character everyone says he does then hopefully he’s trustworthy.
CC,
Most likely the deal was struck on draft day, and they have asked him to remain silent. Once they announce his bonus, what is or isn’t becomes a key component in negotiations with others.
Most likely he gave up $$ for his draft status as many have done, this year and in the past.
That I dont doubt. I am just saying that to sign other players based only on that verbal agreement requires a lot of trust.
And Ramsey can’t technically sign until the college season is over. I’m sure they have a verbal agreement that’s as good as gold.
You are right still playing, I have heard that he already let teams know what he wanted and I am sure the cardinals let him know what they were giving. :)
Think of it from Ramsey’s perspective. Sure, he could try to tell the Cards “take it or leave it”, but what’s his “leave it” option? No money and going to the independent leagues. Plus he’d have a reputation of reneging on a verbal promise. He’s going to be 23. He needs to start his career now. His “leave it” option isn’t very credible.
Hope we have enough left for Trey Williams.
Very good info Jeff, and thanks to all posters for their points..
This certainly does shine a better light on the draft procedure, but a draft based on signability and not talent level is inherently flawed. That’s the price baseball has to pay to try and rob Scott Boras of his blackmailing powers. Such a complicated system just to defeat one freaking player agent and a handful of exceptionally greedy players every year (Cox). Does anyone know if the new rules prohibit teams from adding a new signee to the 40-man roster?
I’m still not sold on our acquired talent, but then they all have a chance to prove me wrong so the ball is in their court. My issue is more with ignoring weaknesses in the system such as shortstop and catcher. I don’t think these were properly addressed. Instead we draft to a position of strength (3B) where we have Freese, Carpenter, Cox and Curtis at the highest levels.
Foody brings images of Mark McCormick and Josh Wilson, both injury issues that never went away. James Ramsey is another Jon Jay, which we have already and besides Charlie Tilson is suppose to be our CF of the future followed closely by CJ McIlroy.
I know I’m in the minority as most of you seem quite positive about our talent acquisition and I’m not saying they’re bad players, again only time will tell, but my feeling is we ignored our biggest needs.
I think once Russell went off the board they decided to draft Mejias who can be a MLB player is close but won’t be a start. I think they got the guy they wanted in Bean and also could have a steal if they can sign Ian Rice from the 4th. Mo seems to have the strategy of drafting in bulk hoping something works out. We did draft like 6 SS’s. Plus we have some interesting guys in the system currently. The 3rd base prospects we got are better quality prospects thatn the SS’s that were available. Not sure what other organizational weakness you are wanting us to fill?